purchased a russian made air defense systems, wasn't behind the geopolitical versatility. well, to discuss the, i'm now joined from cara bye to door and their assistant professor of the department of international relations and bill county university professor on it's great to talk to you. thank you very much for time. it's a pleasure to be on your show. now over the last couple of weeks, a we've heard the number of western officials warned that the course of the ukrainian war may be changed dramatically if not decided altogether within a coming weeks and months. which way do you think it's leaning? i don't necessarily think there's a huge change because, you know, a sense of this war has started. we are in the way in a wait and see, and we are waiting to, to see what the balance on the battlefield. now that we, i see this can play a number of weights of perhaps, you know, the one that you know corresponds mostly the wishful thinking on both sides is the

straight victory. and the other side decides to concede it. you know, we froze in the towers, but i'm far more likely possibility is so for a bird full scale makes to develop between the 2 sides. so you don't all have a clear winner or loser. and you reached the point where, you know, the countries decide that they have enough and they would like to see it for negotiation. probably this is the most likely scenario, but there is also the possibility and this is probably the most forest on that one of the 2 sides because both sides of the moment are free. barry for what we understand or vantage and say the level of this 2 sides. yeah, those gains, the oper, hats, and then the other, the thoughts western are either by using more lethal weapons or enlarging the conflict for the intervention or so. well, let's talk about that because we are recording this conversation on wednesday and

they began with the news from the russian minister of defense about one of us warships in the atlantic, successfully testing a hypersonic miss with that 1000 kilometer range. and we've also heard over the last couple of days, some news from germany, about nato countries, expanding the guy list of armaments and weapons that they want to send to ukraine. they're becoming ever more sophisticated. what do you make of all that showmanship? do you think there is a chance of that, those weapons being used on by that i mean, specifically the russian hypersonic missiles on as far as i on the stones. oh, weapons. all this. i mean, if you're talking, thank you. ever since the start of the war, it's just, you know, that ukraine hasn't really used western babes. thanks tried. and as for us,

hypersonic missiles are concerned. you know, if the below this conventional bizarre know nasa suddenly different from the types of nissan strides. and so, i mean, it will, it will not necessarily be a huge escalation was, i mean, in terms of escalation is weapons that are more lethal, try didn't term. so for a low particularly that the worrisome mom all factor here is the possibility of futile unconventional. which, you know, i'm speaking about unconventional weapons. i mean, i, hypersonic nissans is, is as unconventional as it gets. and i agree with you that there is no point military point or strategic point for action to use it against ukraine. but to use it against some of the countries that supply ukraine with weapons and advisors that then attack russian military personnel that makes perfect sense. i'm in business war, after all, do you think moscow was trying to send any signal to the west?

and if so, how do you think that single will be read? well, russia has tried to deter intervention by nato, since all this startled to conflict. and i should also say that this has as large in the successful what the, as them pretty slides to do is to say, hey, you're counts for the sun reference to ukraine or we are going with that q. and this will be a very, i sure will, did a very dangerous escalation on the part of russia. it's the, exactly the same sort of argument that a germany used and we're one right to united states was at the time supplying weapons. the all dogs and the germany launched on unrestricted summary warfare in order to stop the supplies. so this, this like b with b with b, probably us a step too far because so far, you can really are given this is still

a war between 2 sides. well, and depending how you define the sides of it, when the russians is definitely not the warning between russia and ukraine and the russian seed as a war against nita. and they made definite to see that as an existential issue. and by the way, the west also doesn't really hide its intentions to solve the quote unquote the russian question and to fight until the very end, whatever it means. so if i'm in the war is really of such proportion. if it's an exit dental in nature and involves the survival of russia as a state g thing that wouldn't be such an illogical move for russia to at least came that using those weapons against those who sponsor this conflict. no. when we were seeing the existence does it mean, but the rational uses, the war rashid says, is to exist. and a single answer here is no. i'll russia will continue to exist. ah, even if it, you know, i made using the war with, with the late to rashaw,

essentially using to 3030 to know control senior crane and also the crimea up bots. generosity exist without that. of course. i mean look brief. refills on the solid, people falls and 40 rashana garage would still be there. now, what would be a fact, however, would be rashaw state this as a great ball world, the 1st track and it is or vis objective. the thought believed the war is taking place in. ah, this would be, by the way, this is a very important objective. it is indeed all you know and draws history. this must have been so for great bowers, great powers are not buying in, in their sleep, off seek of old age of they are usually be people on the battlefield. so the question is, it has the time come for, for russia. now you mentioned asia,

great powers and you wrote that a great book on the grand challenges, have a great power. i wonder if that the definition of what it means to be a great power in disdain. h. as in any way changed, let's say from the 20th century, i don't think so. i mean, it's still, it's still based on free criteria, essentially as they tries to kill all 3 of the criteria in order to get great power and stay, create power and describe your criteria are seeing the power behavior recognition. so we've actually, you know, the, to be a great ball where you lodge resources and buried resources of intentional population in terms of, well, it's very forced. and in terms of technology, at the very least are also you have to behave like a great ball, which is you have to have larger and father, we interests, you know, george media, they both with oak. so great are, is usually involved in several regions at the same time or in the dark

international, just in case of the us, then you'll have to take part in the international management, all the system. and finally, to be a great ball, you have to be treated as one as an equal number of the club by the other. great. this is probably what is at stake here because it's pretty much where the ross is treated as any by the united states or not. now, i think your definition of great powers is pretty much concurrent with how it's described. it within the, the russian political circles. it's primarily for the russians about their ability to project various forms of power beyond the border, cultural, social, financial, and military and august. the russian power is constrained in some of those rails. but when it comes to, for example, security and military and the main, russia has been increasingly present in some of the middle eastern countries in

africa. it's the number one provider weapons to africa and also provide military services to a number of african countries. much to the chagrin of the united states. i wonder if you see any connection between the russia emerging confidence in those affairs and the western decision to stop to start weaponized your brain very fast. which came, well, at least this is something that the russian cited as a, as a reason for that military campaign in the ukraine. as far as, as i see, this is ultimately not so much a conflict over security. all, obviously, i mean there, this, the argument is being made ultimately, you know, you voting security is that, is that just the only legitimate reason to go to war. either your under attack or you know, your ela is under attack, and this is why you're taking security measures. but in fact, every one he's saying this, and if you're looking got, you know,

what's ukraine and what's russian are saying they are both making this argument right? oh, i would say however, particularly because you know, great, all, we're sorry, evolve. this is for more of conflict over power and status involving the united states and russia. it's so question of all russia assert deep a sphere of influence in the former soviet space is constant year abroad, and ukraine easy sunshine in order. ready to do this, did all these things doesn't want to allow us to happen and offices, you know, at the bottom of what, what is going on. of course, very supply and demand, right? so there is an interest on the art, off of farm. they don't use space to supply ukraine with this. rub his brothers, also a nationalist. oh, i'd yala g. i'm dog identity in your grade. that wants to assert itself and requires us or miss robinson. now in your analysis i you called lighting and put in

at risk averse loss minimizer, and as much as i actually agree with this, jack sir, is ation at the seemingly most illogical way of on minimizing the risk for us or would be just to sit still try to reach some backdoor agreements with the americans to avoid public humiliation but and to deal with that, it's resentment and it's criticism all fine. and nader encroachment in santa ana rather than military way. why do you think the kremlin took the decision? it took which, whatever you think about it could not have been an easy one, not only because of its international repercussions, but also because of the domestic sensibilities. most of us have relatives in ukraine bell. this is for the dinner. this is a point that you know to do. church historians are going to salivate over. so the, this is definitely going to legion a false book, right? why did draw a warning, you great. but as far as i'm concerned, i believe, and you know,

this plays in to what we have said before with 1st last and the visor as probably the last chance rush or had all not losing your granted or ukraine was army day by day it was becoming stronger and the back we see, but you know, the results for battlefield in this i've been caught, 2 polls at 40, you know, that would have lots of different all got it was i. and so the idea your was, if russia allowed continue to allow this process to go on back. no, you great would have been without becoming denser ball. great. what i've tried the baby completely into the west or because all this will be the last chance for voice. well, this is a very interesting point that we have to return to after short break feature. ah.

who is the aggressor today? i'm authorizing additional strong sanctions. today russia was the country with the most sanctions imposed against it. a number that's constantly growing. i think us literally was to continue to speak on the billing you're seeing in the morning. we're banding all in ports of russian oil and gas news. i know exactly what with joe biden, imposing these sanctions on russia has troy the american economy. so there's you boomerang. ah,

ah welcome back to was appointment to door assistant professor at the department of international relations and bill counts university professor and they had just before the break you, you mentioned. and you also made that point in some of your articles. that the reason why russia intervened in ukraine is because it wants to have a sphere of influence there. i wonder if it's really the case because if we are, i'm in no legible and honest about the political analysis of frequently been under western political domination for many years prior to the start of russian military campaign. wasn't it more about not allowing the west to turn his project in ukraine from a political one into a military one,

in which case it would not be about the ukraine. it would be about the west and maintenance military infrastructure moving ever closer to the russian capital. you have it to the question here is why you're necessarily wants to close. i don't think you'll have the technology late all, all the kilometers away. this is not, you know, the and so, you know, they're all yet it's full time. so if you're where you have to send you the tax garage as being student her back against itself because it needs to be funded. so they do not crazy. so this is not so much a question of we are going, but that you're watching all 3 well, to actually expand our influence in ukraine on. so the question your is where your grade was going to go? was it going to go to the european union? was it going to go into the eurasia project, economic project, but you know, is supposed to rival, the, you isn't going to go into

a nato. is it going to going from the collective of security, treat your organization. so this is the problem you're and golf course of each says, but wasn't really an agreement with this organization or potential idea of that was all are bonded about at at the time was a potential neutralization or great, you know, make, make your grade. they loved or belgium a but this didn't, didn't come about all there is the result was ultimately this, this conflict. now, you know, one of the, you know, international political analysts will actually around london and put in speech and or his articles on the issue. and he's been pretty clear, i think, in most of his writing, that he didn't want the ukraine to be part of russia. he insisted that ukraine needed to remain an independent state. and from a russian perspective, when that wasn't a good idea, because it's actually allowed russia and vested interest in ukraine somewhere to

intend it's early integrity, it would create a buffer zone to fit it in the western for how that was the best security guarantee for your plan now that this is a think of the past and some parts of your brain already incorporated into russia. what do you think that division line that boundary is going to be and that's it. it's, it's a god, this is really the problem. and this is going to be, you know, the double in the final nickel sheesh side. so the devil is always seem to be belts, right? so who gets what? alternately it's be fine. so what is going to happen really? 3rd, but i would say, spite, you know that many declaration, so folks, you know, ukrainian or russian leaders, it will, it sealed, spill all them of the on that they go for negotiations. nothing is really subtle yet. oh, so it will, it will pretty much be decided by whoever ends up in about the position at the end

of this will still it, it's for any and mediation or authentic negotiation to proceed all sides, including converts actors or behind the theme actors. they all need to make the calculation that. 8 continue hostilities and more detrimental to the interest dan piece. and i think i can figure out what would be a russian in ukrainian constraints because they're fighting on the battlefield. they're losing people, they're losing resources. but what about the americans and they european allies, they don't seem to be losing as much what could possibly inspire them to be more in favor of peace. oh, essentially are right. the know both saw it and you know, here we are talking here about you, cree blah. say that will be sure. so you, craig, which is the nato, you american allies in asia are off and on the other side,

your garage. and so the problem, the year is but built side still believe that victory is boston. as long as they will pertain this b, b, they are willing to spend resources in order to catch tuba, oil, o steel. it is supposed to lead dismal, go. oh, what is needed in order for priestess happen is for these thoughts. oh, give up on the prospect of victory. so victory is simply too expensive that is out of reach. and therefore, if this goes to the business of thought back the order some useful stuff and are simply we are open, but for yes. but so, you know, and this also shows the magnitude of the stakes. oh, because it's you start, you know, all the resources that are required so far i'll be off. it's interesting that the you mentioned. 6 that all sides, i still going for victory,

but the russians have never actually defined clearly that military objectives. so it's, it's very difficult to say what they would regard as victoria, from most this perspective, it's already achieved the, why the number of goals and so to sort of put them in stone with the acquisition of those regions. do you think the state of squall as of now would be satisfactory for all sides? given that it's very unlikely that most google backtrack on any of the recent moves . oh, probably not. oh, no. so were you gray? you green has all a set of, you know, maximilian goals so every in shall, 3030 bloss groin. eon needs to be all the way they make with it was liberated. and as far as russia has been, sir, we know that, you know, the mini mo, the man there he is for is for the dumbass value of all this new territories. but,

you know, have been added to the dom, us. but the thing is, even if this was considered to date brush on this, we're going to release that this i rises, political objectives, which are to, you know, force grade into essentially it's orbit. and this is not likely to happen at year. you only way you know this with, you know, the war with and in a way that would satisfy rational would be either with few grain simply capitulating and this were, was probably the objective at, you know, the beginning or before the left is, you know, complete occupation of pro russian government, the jets of government that gives up on the dom bostic government. that keeps up on joining nato, a government that read the march of joins the russian project or failing best, a you grain. but it is so dramatically weakens off the coffee. but it will then

pull what march challenge in the future. so for instance, an ability to got ukraine away from the black sea, through se, occupying goddess and bet would be a ukraine, but will be dramatically weaker economically, politically. and it will be a question or flash on finishing their job at some later point. i have a problem with this kind of analysis and which i hear a lot and western media primarily because i think as these and put in is at risk of hers and loss minimizer. and he's pretty sure, with man understanding and then as a russian sentiment in the ukraine is extremely strong there. they've never been much appetite in moscow for, you know, western ukraine, you know, deletion other lines like that. so why would the russia ever want to get that soft involved into those lance when it faced even under joseph style and under the soviet tool, there was many separatist and insurgent issues there. so don't you think that most

would much rather be satisfied with the west taking the rest of ukraine on their own wing and you know, paying for their reconstruction and taking care of the people? well, a possible division of the state is also on the table. this is also, this is also a possibility. so you might have a sort of like you had to further old republic of germany, but you have the whole credit german, you might add up with great ease degree. if i could be more like northwest versus se all to tell you the truth. but one point i think should be made very clear. this is not the. busy draw chart recreating the soviet you it's impossible to call or political or another state as you say, but this would be, you know, prohibitively expensive and i don't think the trust i was interested in this was all that really wants is for a government that

a security interest when it's all, you know, state as tweets power, right. so ultimately what it won't, is a, well is some form of a line government. jeff, this is, by the way, i mean it's, it's not, it's not unheard of it's, it's actually what this bureau, that all, you don't necessarily control the, all of this data as much as you control. it's more a policy. so this slide believe is what is what is on is off now a professor and i have to ask you about tricky because this is something i announced in my introduction and we barely spoke about the anchor. and yet so far has been by far, i think the only international player that has made any in the roads in terms of bringing the 2 sides together. and it was a meeting between our foreign ministers of russia, ukraine in tricky last year, which even i reached to some agreement,

which nonetheless was later appended by the ukranian side. do you think it's still it is still worthwhile for turkey to try to negotiate this? be it or it's still too early for that. oh, each definitely. we're all going to be elevates. our 30 is position right. it. first of all, it makes 30 year as the king maker. right. and in this conflict and also as it, you know, managers to deliver a diploma to supplement. well, it is flu shots, so it gives you points pricing. international relations are the problem here. and as far as like in see and you're, you're, you're absolutely right. you need to involve more sides of the one size that you really need to be oldest states. you cannot just ukraine and russia looking for each other, but at the same time you don't have dialogue between,

between the great powers and in this capacity all don't know if they're giving can deliver. because at the moment 30 and the american relations are fairly dense, and that's also something that the russia relies on because it's been very active in trying to rely on cherokee to is the pressure of western sanction. there are many more inspired enterprises, including the proposal to build gas cob in turkey. do you think it's sensible for russia to rely on turkey, given even not only the long history, very volatile history between our 2 countries, history that it was full with there is the trails, but also recent history over theory, and many disagreements there. why do you think russia is entrusting itself. 9 to turkey, the very sensitive point of time. if your raj, by your actually looking for french wherever you can find. and you cannot really be

picky or choosey. but you the fact if you're looking at the houston yoga relation, this goes for the back. and so there was an increasing garage. hm. all between russia and turkey since right. and since, so i think governmental, russia actually came up very much in support of the government in on products. and i would say, of course, there are differences. all barbara also overlap big interests and some old back do concert series. ah, in fact it is, as you know, i have bunch for marine w quite also billed that we. busy dollar, you know, the possibility of assyrian gate, which actually would break to gather. ah, not only, you know, the president soft russia turkey, but maybe we might have inflation off the hospice. so we might have a future, a meeting between the ot preston deadline and poster pos are well, focus on every have to leave it there. thank you very much for your time today.

thank you and thank you for watching. pulled to sir again on was apart. ah ah ah ah ah ah ah,

i am my name is frank richardson, philadelphia got in the movement in age 13 going on 14. we are violent towards those people because we believe that we're this race, we're here 1st and this is our country being part of that movement. i got your sense of power. when i felt powerless, we got attention when i felt invisible and accepted. when i talked to level life after, hey, is an organization that was founded by for a skinhead the on on the white supremacists in the u. s. in canada. and they found each other, and they knew that they wanted to help other guys get out. is 2 parts to getting out of a violent extreme this with the 1st part of disengagement which is where you leave the social group. and then the next part is d. radicalization where belief systems

are to remove it was very impactful when someone finally came along with no fear, no judgement, you heard my story did nothing to challenge it. validate with 4 people are killed and 5 injured after ukraine uses us supplied rockets to hit a bridge. and that zip code rose here region not coming in from local authorities, also with the multiple explosions are reported in our run over nights with the countries. the offense ministry, stating it managed to thwart that drone attack. and then on the mission capital from american british and other european delegation demand that african countries stuff cooperating with russia and avoid breaking away from the common agenda which the west c.