mark's analysis at the real politic with mark sonata over on you to now mark with the recent announcement by president biden, that the u. s. would send 31 abrams tanks to ukraine. a couple things here. one is this a significant number of tanks to make any difference to why this allotment, why not say, and even 30 or even 40. and then biden says they'll be making a special key, a version i guess, of the abrams that the u. s. won't be sending at stock inventory of abrams because they have proprietary equipment on them. so when exactly, with these key a version abrams even get there. okay, so 1st of all, you know, the question why $3131.00 tanks is the size of a ukrainian tank per gate. how many tanks are in a tank brigade? and supposedly the original estimates for the

european leopard tanks would be 2 brigades worth or $62.00 tanks. so that, that may number may have since changed as to the question will, will, this will 31 tanks will 62 tanks will a 120 tanks make a significant difference on the ukranian battlefield. the aspect give portrait gene started this conflict in february of 2022 with according to western military estimates, the tisa and janes as having 2596 tanks. we also know that since then the west has already sent you crane another 400 to 500 tanks. these are soviet legacy tanks, mostly t 72 to some t eighties from the former east block countries, poland, romania,

croatia and some others. and so the question remains, where are those tanks now that there is such a desperate need for the west to send their own main battle tanks? the question is they are mostly destroyed. and if that many tanks have already been destroyed, because russia has air dominance over you grain and it has a 9 to one or greater heavy artillery mismatch besides all of the other factors on the battlefield, no, quite clearly. not 31, not 62, not 120. not even $300.00 tanks are going to make a significant enough outcome that they would change the outcome of the conflict.

which of course leads to the question, when will they arrive? well, maybe never. that's. that's the truth of the matter. so, so this deal was struck out between biden and the german chancellor, olaf schultz, 2 pressure schultz into releasing the leper sending the leopards a tank that the pentagon at least feels would be a more suitable match for ukraine. although it has to be said, not by much because of the heavy weight, the incredible logistical and training burdens of the abrams and several other factors. the pentagon still doesn't believe that the abrams is actually a tank that the ukrainians can really make effective use of in any way. certainly not to be wasted on the battlefield and where they can't fight normal combined arms

warfare against the country that has air and artillery dominance. so this deal was struck that the leopards would be sent within a few months, but the abrams actually have to be built almost from scratch and they get behind the queue of poland. 2 and taiwan, which have abrams on orders. so there's no definitive date of when they mail will arrive, yet it will be no sooner than the end of this year. and could be longer. it could be a year, according to the washington post or years. and they may never get there. so that move by biden broke that deadlock over in europe on sending tanks to key as various nations were basically pointing at one another to say, now you go 1st, now you go 1st. so eventually the germans agreed to send

a few dozen leopards. the poles said they would send some. what can you tell us about these leper tanks? are they any match for the tanks that russia has? yeah. okay, so i mean, the leopard like the abrams is a good tank. right. and you know, it's equivalent the most modern russian tanks, the t nineties. you know, they are all roughly on a par. i mean, if you put them up on specs, you can argue, oh that the t 90 m pro really has a slightly longer range shot. the abrams a slightly better armor, the lever to slightly more maneuverable. but you know, this is largely semantics because, you know, the truth of the matter is that actually in this conflict tank battles tanks, conducting duels against other tanks, in the ukrainian conflict are extremely rare. phenomenon that actually hasn't

happened so much the tanks will operate as part of a combined arms maneuver war warfare where they'll be fighting with the infantry along side of them, mechanized infantry providing cover. but in the case of ukrainian care regime forces they will be fighting against an opponent that has complete air dominance of the battle field and a very substantial 9 to one or greater artillery and rocket system mismatch with very powerful electronic warfare. drones loitering, munitions such as the russian lands that have proven extremely effective and destroying ukrainian tanks. so it is very likely that the leopards will be destroyed by you know, will be facing and will be destroyed by many other things before they actually engage any of russia's tags. and we have seen in syria

turkey deployed leopard tanks, a more modern variant in syria. and they were just void by both isis and the kurds. using a 19 seventies era soviet anti tank guided missile, which caused no end of embarrassment. and this is highly written about in the western press. similarly, the abrams were destroyed in yemen by irregular who fees using the same type of $970.00 is anti tank guided missile and will be facing much more modern. anti tank guided missiles of by russian infantry in ukraine. so, you know, there are substantial tanks, but they won't really be fighting tank duels. no, the numbers, the exact numbers supplied by the different

countries that are contributing 14, initially promised from germany 14 from poland. the united kingdom is sending 14 of their own challenger tanks because ukraine doesn't have enough logistical burdens already. they need 3 different types of main battle tanks for if france ever gets around the sending some clerks to, to add to the hodge podge and the li, insane logistical burden on ukraine. interestingly enough of germany's initial batch of tanks is 14 tanks that they say they're going to send right away and they say that they will send up to $88.00 tax $1488.00. that's a very interesting number. it's usually used in the white area neo nazis as code for heil hitler on social media interesting factoid. so

very early in the military operation, we saw what russian air superiority looked like. mountain barring the ghost of kiev . of course, we saw precision strikes that initially took out military targets, airfields rail, things like that. ukraine does not presently possess the air capabilities to take on russian se 20 fives or the long awaited su, 57 felon, still fighter. but that doesn't mean they won't get some air power. the letters lensky is already asking us for some f sixteens. will he get them? and would that change the conflict from a ground war to then an air war? yes, i'm much like with the decision to send some abrams some day some time. i think it is extremely likely that that in the you know, the medium term, at least probably by, by the end of the summer. no. later than that,

we will see western countries, so comb through a vicious cycle of pressure coming from each other, coming from the media, which is perhaps one of the biggest wor, hawk driving agendas and all of this. because once the tanks don't manage to win the conflict for the cameras and the same with the a longer range, missiles the ground, large small diameter bombs, a jury rig combination that boeing as, as sold the u. s. government on providing for the character once they don't when will need a new wonder weapon that will change the course of the conflict. of course, the f. 16 will do nothing of the sort. the regime isn't capable of flying. now they have started this conflict with several 100 combat aircraft. they

have a handful left, and that is considering that they have also already received additional megs from in block countries of eastern europe that are now part of nato as well. so russia obviously has a big aviation mismatch. the givers officials are already always going on about russia has some $700.00 combat aircraft lurking around ukraine at all times. and you know, that's to say nothing of russia's air defense which is considered even by western military analysts. as the best air defense in the world, and russian forces are very heavily covered by short range, medium range, long range air to fit the systems all the way from the pants or up to the s 400. no, the f sixteens would be slaughter. where would they fly out of? the government?

doesn't have any air fields that cannot be hit by russian precision strikes with calibers, with drones and the like. they would have to fly out of poland or romania and that would automatically make those countries a party to the conflict without any shadow of a doubt remaining. but there will be high political pressure to send the f sixteens will actually be able to make use of them. of course they not, they don't have the technicians, they don't have a pilots train to fly them. we've just heard from the british prime minister who inform the press about exactly how long is the minimum amount of time for an f. 16 pilot training, which is 35 months. normal trading is 5 years. so, you know, but you know, hey with the pluck and we'll of the king james forest con scripts. i mean brave

willing defenders of the coverage im, i'm sure they'll figure it out. yeah. you know in just a couple hours ah, coming up next. he's being coy, she's all in find out why francis emmanuel micron is uncomfortable with germany's adelina bear box stance on ukraine. we'll discuss it with mark's la moda when we return sit tight. m o will be right back. ah ah lou needs to come to russian state total narrative. i've stayed as i phone and the nurse 19 div s mm hm. then i

can go and meet within the 55 with. okay, so mine is group. i was speaking with ben in the european union, the kremlin media machine, the state on russia for date, and school ortiz spoke neck, given our video agency, roughly all bands on youtube and pinterest and with ah, every spring and summer, the melting optics new reveals abandoned machinery millions of rusty barrels and

the detritus left by human expansion into this most inaccessible of territories. yep. and used to move, so take off a summer, but he lowered it the bus to pick as an issue all entails from clean arctic travel to heis island home to the biggest polar station on the french joseph land dog capella. go, daddy asked me, but i lost my bosom or yet we should. so him is it's ebony yahoo! aimlessly nasa monley and i'm but somebody with a summer stay on the or stuff like that where he feel like a marriage from a serial number 0 membership, one year of capillary bomb, cyril know, boys of premier love to secure that of the optic pioneers main objective was to explore and conquer these harsh lands. they had no time to think about waste management now and see could remain for centuries. that's my choice of so movies in madeline, it is pretty up because she system was going to put on your scope. i don't believe to include with deal to issue

with the joggers archipelago home and she goes to san diego garcia, the largest island in the archipelago is now the location of a very large u. s. military base. you get given med, div our i to the us government to make the military base and just deported all of douglas and people from their country so they can return back on the island . no, but we are fighting. that's why i'm fact real fasting for the right. so i, we do not consider that the right to self determination actually applies to the trickle skins and on the question, those self determination of the legal advice we've received is actually the trickle . since we're not at all, not a people for me,

it's time to move on and see what we can do. a full the tumbler said committee to return back home. there is no support from the nomination. i commission, i forget united michigan don't care about chug restaurant people with lou. welcome back to the ammo. i'm manila chan. she wants to dive in head 1st, but he's taking a more measured approach. germany is young, foreign minister, and alina bare, bach once the whole of the you to go all in. but emanuel micron is saying not so

fast. now international relations and security expert mark sla boda is back with us to discuss. mark lee french have been very coy about whether or not they would supply care with any having machines like tanks or fighter jets a manual ma crohn has said. and i'm, of course paraphrasing here, that the idea is not off the table, but his rules would be that he'd give care of those things under the condition that the regime promised not to use them on russia proper territory. now could those promises be kept and how would you ensure that those promises were even enforced if you're a manual micron? what would the consequences be if kids broke that promise and used french french jets to i don't know, say bomb st. petersburg. of course, this is purely theoretical because i do not believe that my crohn will supply

french jets in, in it anywhere you know, in the near future meeting next couple of years to the cab regime. and if they did, they would never make it to st. petersburg considering the amount of heavy air defense of between, you know, ukraine in st. petersburg and so forth. but let's assume for the serial sank that they did. of, of course, my micron would have no way of enforcing what targets, what parts of russia russia proper or what the west doesn't considered part of russia. and so, you know, that puts in a bit of a political dilemma there. generally, french has been about a step behind the rest of nato in the procurement of arms. they have provided what they call a light tank, which is it's, amex 10 are see, it's a 1978 era kind of

a weird cross. it's a we old light tank somewhere between infantry fighting vehicle and a tank again hasn't been provided in, in numbers that would be substantial such as would overcome the logistical burden of it. and there are a whole host of, well, a very large number of rushing weapon systems that will make as short a work of that as they have done of everything else that the west has so far, so applied to the care of regime on the battlefield. so once again, no wonder weapon, the french were already retiring from service, but you know, they have some laying around to give and i guess it's better than nothing. i do not believe that france will probably ever send aircraft. this will be a tighter political decision in france. they have historically been

a step removed from the nato war hawks. they weren't even a part of the nato's military council until you know, the last couple of decades. so, i think micron will will show more sense. he has also said that another condition is that the key of regime would make be able to make good battlefield use of whatever is provided, which is a good argument against providing them with just about everything that they have been provided. so far. a, a, a factor that increases as the technological complexity and logistical complexity of the military equipment increases and main battle tanks and fighter jets certainly are beyond what they can make any type of realistic use of without having a, a number of years to integrate that to to learn how to use them and to integrate them

into their larger military systems. when the u. s. provided abrams tanks to iraq, the, the large training program to integrate them into the iraqi armed forces lasted 5 years. for saudi arabia. it was 7 and saudi arabia still lost. lots of abrams to who fi irregulars firing a soviet era. anti tank guided missiles at them and had to request more abrams. so i don't think it's a care regime will do any better and, and almost certainly much worse. so one high ranking leader, not so shy, not so coy about her position on this war is germany is foreign minister and lena bear bock, she's openly advocating for more war,

more equipment and saying we are at more with russia while speaking at an e. u meeting was here, and therefore i've sent already in the last days. yes, we have to do more to defend ukraine. yes, we have to do more also on 10th. but the most important in the crucial part is that we do it together and that we do not do the blame game in europe because we are fighting a war against russia and not against each other. thank you. why is bare bach the charge out of germany mark whereas a lot sholtes germans govern. current government is a very fragile coalition. government between the s p d, which all of shawl says the green party of which on atlanta bear bock is the number 2 and another smaller party. and with the

green party demanding the position of foreign ministers. part of this coalition government, that's how they have and elaine berry, bach driving german foreign policy i, i would say there ola sholtes primary political characteristics are political cowardice and feckless. and it's perfectly clear who, where's the big boy britches in the german government and it's not all law schultz, the german green party is a kind of a weird, a political phenomenon. considering that their policies have brought germany to burning coal and wood in place of natural gas, they should probably rename themselves the german coal black party. but they are some of the biggest anti russia antique china, anti anyone war hawks?

in the broader spectrum of e, you politics, they are essentially european neo cons. that would make john mccain blush and whatever, you know, lower realm of hell that he's found himself. and they have been pushing to germany out of it's decades long pacifism into this. no direct confrontational were once again. german main battle tanks will be sent and burning in the ukrainian steps against russia, which is, you know, it's cause some other german politicians, you know, to really hesitate at this. there are 2 soviet t, 34 tanks outside of the one to stand up side of the german

parliament building. and every morning the german representatives have to walk in past those 2 tanks. you would think that they would think a little bit more about what they're doing by it. it doesn't seem that that thoughts in consequence or 2 of their box, you know, strongest policies. but she is a pro imperialist pro u. s. lead global hegemony. 2 or sled western global hegemony proponent to, to the 90 degree. and she is now essentially dictating german, 4 and military policy. and that's a thought that should probably scare anyone who's not on the oak, on, on either side of the atlantic. all right, mark followed, i got to leave it right there. thank you so much and be sure to check out marks

youtube channel called the real politic with mark sla moda. so as you can see over in europe where this conflict could have direct consequences, there is no unanimous agreement on how to move forward with ukraine. but here in washington, one thing is clear, you are not an american patriot. if you don't give all your support and your money to keep, that's going to do it for this week's episode. modus operandi the show that digs deep into foreign policy. i'm your host manila chan. thank you so much for tuning, and we'll see you again next week. to figure out the ammo ah, in today, and this is lou and never done before. we trigger the general cape cloth. that

means national government can pump into the economy as much as a nickel. but because i've had, yeah, i got a little granted to voting them off and i just wanted to come back. i'm not going to forget it to us on to the development to stand my son. he's got a messy, the sick at sick with his dad. my son, he started and wanted to put up with them fall out shamefully from lam. i'm not really sure, but i'll likely to get a couple of not bringing about 3 minutes to resume this will be due on. i want your full view, my chima, a boston mobile chrissy, but i'm not pulling up with up the door. oh

ah yes. now you need, you need, it's typically near to nothing. you know them with the new book that probably, unless we should see where it gets to the young will showcase in a little boy, why is it w a a quote, i'm not sure the water doesn't want that extra mom,

but i know it's up under that whole ah ah, what do you think i should do is, you know, use his name and good jail. it's amazing to me that how, how they fall and la seymour hersh, the journalist behind the investigation into the u. s. road in the news stream. pipeline blah reveals the pressure he's facing by mainstream media to divulge his thoughts. here, restrict pavilion on for media access to the embattled city of austin, also widely known as bach need as much and forces advance on entrenched ukrainian positions with.