ah, ah i'm ashan is ancy and we're going underground, brought gusting all around the world from dubai. in the united arab emirates today is 5 years to the day. am i 6 is survey script paul, recruited from russian security services by the associates of christopher steele was allegedly poisoned by radioactive nava chalk near england's top secret chemical weapons lab at porton down steel. auth of the fake dossier against president trump . and despite denials, were moscow, ne donations accused russia. oh, the poisoning leading to all of nato economic war on russia. all that is the people of don best were attacked by kev leading up to the current war in europe. so when

will this european war end and who will win, or will we all lose with me as an arguable unofficial advisor to the policy makers and corporations involved? arguably now in a global conflict, george friedman, founder of stratford and geopolitical futures. he joins me for today's episode from washington, d. c. thank you so much. sure, george, very coming on. you know, raytheon profits apparently doubled since the new phase, the ukrainian crisis a year ago. i know that they are reportedly a subscriber to geopolitical futures. goldman sachs mentioned merrill lynch dow coca cola during the year dad to tell us, but when will the war and then who's going to win rural? i don't think is good and very sure, i mean, and i don't see how he the sized and when are the russians are constantly bogged down their enabled amount, effective incursions. they do some attacks, but they, they ultimately fail the ukrainians are not able to be to. on the other hand,

russia can't possibly win because the u. s. weapons that are given to ukraine is, will devastate them at the same time by the ukrainians, or simply be pushed back and forth and nothing will happen. so the real point here is, is far work. it's got to be negotiated and a negotiation is very, very difficult. there's no geographical point to where we can divide the thought forces. well, we're talking to an advisor for the progressive caucus in congress, in a week or so as time. and he's been saying that the negotiations are off the table a a to remember, attract a letter asking for negotiations, calling it scans to mingle defeatist. you say that russia, when i mean some say that all already arguably in the global south, russia has already, one, not least obviously the rubel currency,

but the in terms of the deals now being done between bricks countries, the shang i cooperation organization. russia has already begun creating the new world order that so many have predicted, i think, strap for and your organization constantly talk about. the possibility of one possibility is not a reality. the fact is that russia made a massive intelligence failure before the worry. he did not and anticipate how well you created a fight. it did not really understand that the europeans would not side with you, would not side with russia norris to drain neutral. and he completely misunderstood the united states and what was going to happen. so at this point, after a year, he's time triggered a small fraction of ukraine. so in russia, there is a serious question, as you've asked when does this end? and is also the question asked,

why haven't we done much better than we're supposed to? the expectation was that this would be a fast war. it isn't. and therefore, how did you know that? how did you know that the expectation would be that it would be a fast war? and that actually russia wanted to go in more slowly, not using shocking or tactics that the united states did in iraq, afghanistan, libya, and syria. he did you shock it, or he just didn't fail that it's, well, yes, roy. yeah, of the way that the americans destroyed baghdad. the point is to point to he's not gone and defeated, ukrainian army in a war taking cities destroying them. they don't really count very much. you don't win wars that way. an army must defeat the enemy. army wouldn't, has failed to defeat, do crating army because of american sport. and in that failure,

there are severe questions going in russia that can be seen in the social media of why it couldn't start this war when he couldn't win. and why did he not win? so there's a situation in the russia, but it is quite devastating. i mean, this is a major power fighting a very minor power and not winning. now, learning a country in western europe and of some obviously say it's difficult to ascertain the britons popularity has never been higher because he's finally responded to a huge constituency, the majority in, in russia. but you say you want negotiations, you think by new kind of listing, perhaps he's a subscriber to your organization, i'm not sure. or he was listening to what donald trump was saying in south carolina . that's why he's not supplying the f sixteens. biden called for negotiations over 2 months ago. ah,

the russians refused. russians wanted concessions beforehand. so the american position has been that it is also told the ukrainians that he, they have to negotiate whether they want or not. so the american position on this is one, we're not going to let the russians win to, we want to negotiation. and it's couldn't who has had found very difficult to organize negotiation because there's so many constituencies some way to the war. so not that, you know, the majority is on his side and biden's offer. negotiations was surely premised on the idea that the russians had to get out of crimea. first, they were axiomatic. claims. before negotiations would go forward from the american . he negotiate aviation, you come to the table with certain expectations, expecting to negotiate them away. you don't call for negotiations simply to have

the other side capitulate. so when he made that remote proposal several times, obvious that he was going to come to the table was a maximum of disposition, knew that that's the way to works. but the point was that russia could not negotiate, given the failure of its 1st offensive. it could not come to the table, it felt unless it, she's a decisive victory. and it hasn't been able to do. so you don't think that the kremlin policy is actually, and it's been voted for by the duma, is to create this new world order. it's not actually really about you grain, your grain is emblematic of eastwood nato expansion. but it's really about d dollarization about bricks alignment, about the togetherness with china. i don't know it on the outside thing about but, but from the outset they were a army. there was very small that was not designed to go further than ukraine

was not going to explain, attack nato or anything like that. whatever, you know, they fantasized and i don't think they fantasize much to her. great realists are these are things sure propaganda. they want a new world order. they can't even take ukraine. so that's the problem. how disciplined do you think that nato nation media has been covering the war from that point of view? so that we don't see what people are saying in latin america or africa? asia, which is clearly that bruton is a new world leader. and that this has been a great success to be blind, doesn't matter what they're saying. this is a war and the war will end in a certain way. and that will be the reality. and whether or not the 3rd world countries are celebrating goodner, why really doesn't matter. the real question now is the outcome of this war

and how it ends. and even if it ends russia as a great power really doesn't have the economic engine to be able to be at a united states or a u. k or something like that. russia is a very poor country, it's. i was a 3rd world country. it has very little effected industry and it lives off the export of primary commodities oil. so it is very hard to see russia as being able to supply the capital that would be needed to dominate the world. if not as, who dominates out of the world to be a great power, you have to be a source of capital and a buyer of exports. and that's something china has learned and the russians aligned to russia, made it clear it doesn't want to dominate the world. you don't believe that all the

loss of energy exports to western europe, obviously, currently suffering a great deal of hardship through their arguable self sanctioning. you don't think that it can all just be replaced by china than you deal with pakistan. new deals with the global south that are being organized as we speak well has to be transported. so you can make many deals. but the idea that these countries, especially try at that distance, is going to be able to efficiently transfer enough energy to solve whatever your, your problems are. and they're doing better than was expected at the beginning of the soil issue. i mean, that's, that's far fetched. they can meet, mitigate some of the problems perhaps, but the infrastructure that russia created to serve the europe, i mean, is necessary. and russia needs it badly to well, i mean, i mean, the north stream was

a big project to project with pakistan has been muted in the past few days. you mentioned britain as a great power, i presume. historically, we probably both don't have much time for the i m f for cost, but you saw that russia is for us to do better than britain, a leading member of nato in the country pouring weapons into ukraine. anybody who tries to forecast russia's economy is in fools game. i know with the war going on, it had not clear how it ends. nobody knows where to rushes, i would. russia's economic situation is going to be, nor ukraine's, nor in some senses. even the united states were in a war and i m f is doing peacetime analysis. now we're donald trump's, south carolina speech was not even covered on a network, u. s. television. i don't know whether that's another sign of kind of implicit me does censorship going on?

he is clear and said, this is not russia's soul fault. what has happened in ukraine? what do you think of trumps chances and what do you think of the impact of media censorship of trumps campaign on his presidential chances? it's extraordinary how much ground he's lost in the united states. he has core support. but beyond that, it's almost boring. who it's you had to trump is doing. so trump has been a presence in american politics for a long time. he lost the last election show, say, behave badly as one of it. but many, many people simply don't care what he says. so i don't think this censorship going on as much as indifference. so why is my dogs fox news doing so well the most popular cable channel, one that does allow trump to speak,

and the ratings of the m. s. m, b, c, and cnn. and those competitors on cable or dropping catastrophically. i watch. fox used to understand the small faction is doing. ah, and it's interesting to hear trump. so in many ways he's become a museum piece. and you know, whatever it is defeated, politicians don't do very well. one of the myths the media has created is that in spite of trump b, roundly defeated and profoundly embarrassed by what happened answers and gender sex . that he still is a major figure as is it, what is very neat here is that this is sort of the 1st time i've seen. i defeated a president unable to rise up being treated as a real possibility for re election. i'd, i don't think when, when you look at the numbers he's likely to get to do for brooklyn could not

nomination chore treatment. i'll stop you there. more from the geopolitical forecaster and chairman of geopolitical futures after this break. ah ah ah ah

ah ah, welcome back to going undergoing i am still here with the geopolitical forecast and chairman of geopolitical futures, george friedman, you think there would be a war in europe if trump was president biden, of course, was a sending in weapons and special forces are ahead of the 24th of february last year . well, what trump tries to, to get is he supplied. poland was many of the tanks and weapons are when he went

there, they were gonna call it off for trump. if she remember that. and he was instrumental in setting it up, which was reasonable and possible. but the idea that somehow he had a magic formula to deal with, ah, the russians, remember, if the russians were to take ukraine, nato from the northern parts of the southern part would be facing russian forces. and the question would be, what will the russians do next? and that's the question that the russians may not know, or they may know very well and are frustrated. but dizzying up ukraine and simply walking away would have brought them directly into the cold war again. and i don't think trump or any other american president wants to sit at the full the gap and try to experience that a cold war except that representatives,

envoys of the united nations representing most of humanity, did not share the opinions of western europe or the united states and did not condemn what russia believes is a saving of the people of don bass. i mean, south korea refusing to aid what the detractors of nature say is nature's war on russia. through ukraine we had president lulu has been on this program. he said in the past few days, the war is on poverty, not russia. i am definitely fast neighbor. people say, i'm far more interested in what they do. and what we had one vote in the united nations condemning rushes attack, which even china abstain only 5 countries voted against it. and so the changes, so that vote was taken. and a man, nothing, and other votes voices will be heard. but we are in

a war. and just like the condemnation of adolf hitler not to compare them, i didn't mean anything to how the war came out. so on both sides, what noncombatants are saying? doesn't really matter. united states cannot live and europe can't live with the russian forces directly under border of nato. because that says out of the war and russia cannot live with the united states 260 miles away from moscow. these are serious people said a serious war. and most of those are offering opinions really don't understand and just are saying things. you're famously wrote the book coming war with japan in 1991. so for a while, south korea refuse to aid. they just war japan as well. even you must have been a little surprised that it's a change. it's constitutional. most of the that you $45.00 in terms of it's

rearming you now think to japan still poses a threat or is this part of the future that you saw every nation with weapons poses in a potential threat to everyone else that stuff interesting. japan has decided that given the dangers emanating from north korea, but even more out of china, that it must have its own navy, which i think is a prudent thing for them to do. it is allied with the united states and that's fine . but over the course of time, these things change, we don't have to assume that it will remain the same. but it's not a surprise at the world's 3rd largest economy. should be acquiring a military force equal to that. and you believe that russia can't win the war and ukraine, you've seen the friendship grow between bridging and moscow. do you believe that

the united states and what some say of the vessel states of europe are prepared really to fight a war against china and russia on 2 fronts? it is impossible for china to aid russia. the distances involved are just enormous . this is a land war, having a navy or something doesn't matter. and in that land war, transporting the $500000.00 troops physically and then feeding them is simply an impossible thing, which is why for a year, china has steered clear of involvement in this war. if they were going to get involved, they get involved much sooner. but stock going to happen, it's logistically, impossible. as to worldy united states continue. well, the alternative is to bring have russian forces on the border of poland, of slovakia, of hungary,

of bob romania. and the question then is ok, we voided this war. now we face at russia's option, war farther to the west. so it is initiated this war. what is the next word initiates, and under the circumstances a prudent political leader has to say, i'm much better off holding them back in ukraine than i am for watching and march on vienna. i'm not sure how much hungry is so, so bother to read that out. i'll give leave it then what about the economic war? you say the pipelines are going to be build quick enough. the energy gas will be frank in the u. s. and coming into europe and replacing the russian energy. surely the way the 2nd cooperation organization sees it. and certainly here in the middle east, they see it. of course, out of your age, you're in the u. a famously didn't take biden's phone calls to increase the oil supply is this is an economic war that is gradually being one against

u. s. and germany, whether it be d dollarization or energy and resource exploitation. well, if there's a d dollarization, it is not a pro ruble that event. but if you remember, the arabs said no. now, but the arabs live and die by selling oil. are the ability of many of the countries to receive the oil physically is difficult. so we, we have to be very careful. all sorts of nonsense is in the air. you know, the idea, for example, that hungary, ah, is simply for a russian or anything like that. i returned to position did because expected the russians to overwhelm ukraine very quickly. when they didn't stave kind of sat there wondering what next to do and i'm from weren't born and angry,

sorry. noted that ah, this is very important to understand. it was saying we have in america, money talks i'll say other things walk. so there is so much jabbering, going on, look at where they are. a tillery shows for look, as with the casualties are, that will tell us what's happening. well, i suppose one thing that keeps coming up here is that russia was somehow taken by surprise. by the response. do you really think? when so many analysts were predicting that actually the west is dying, the united states is dying. the famous 40000000 people, you know, in poverty, in the united states, these powers are now ending the u. s. m bows, and of course, they would all coagulating this kind of way as the new age is created. to look at

a very curly, he did think he could eat, eat united states. he was wrong. he has been wrong thus far. because he was listening to those people who were our united states was dead. ever since. around 950 europeans have been declaring the death of the united states. the united states is so far from collapsing its search largest economy in the world. ah, it's the most creative in terms of technology, and it has the ability cut off technology from china very well. i think it's really a mistake to see the united states this way. but this was the other example of the failure of russian intelligence. they believed that they were hearing. if that was why they went a surely, they intended to take ukraine. and surely they wouldn't have done that if they thought the united states was going to do what it did. but it did do it, and now they're floundering. well, of our visit they didn't want to take care of,

but you've also written about budgeting isolationism. i don't know whether that relates to the wealth steve bands famous phrase for trump, the american carnage. that as you say, the united states has so much to offer. but is leaving behind such an underclass? do you think that is one of the factors there in a new isolationism? that may be, well, i don't know, give me a time scale for it. well, i have a weakness here because i'm living in the united states. and i don't see this massive destabilization of society. we are in washing or you just have to go up the roads. i mean, live life expectancy live lower than have an are in some but i live in texas. okay . and in texas we have the mexicans and so and so forth. and the united states is far too complex the country to reduce to that, pardon me, simplistic models like that. ah,

there are people dying in the united states is there is in every night. we also have enormous numbers of immigrants trying to get it. so as a form arrogant. i know that countries that are best of the ones i want to go to and they're not struggling to get into many of the countries that you would give a why are they leaving because of the u. s. foreign policy has so many of said i'm going to just finish george with one question about julian sanchez been on this program. and you must be really annoyed by the way, you, if any one has been a victim of wiki leaks, it was you, there was no, it was certainly the strap for organisation, despite the enmity between the 2 of you. and i'm going to say i spoke to judy and i did say strap for was a, was an important publication, the one that you found it. would you still call for his freedom? nevertheless, i wouldn't call her freedom or refuse to use the legal system of britain is just fine. as for what he is,

i think kit he is. ha unreasonable, wrecker. and yes, he heard me by doing it. he didn't find anything there, but he has made his name for himself and history will judge him. he's another one of these things that are interesting. once that matter, not twice. will journalists use his work all the time. and if the american caught the espionage act, of course that, that got him, i suppose just finally than in 20 years time. i mean, i'm sure you get it exhaust all the time. what's going to happen though, are seeing a changing of the guard. one of those powerful countries in europe now is poland. it has after britain gree, the really the 2nd largest effective military force. our st. japan become more a military. ah, we see russia trying to come to terms of the limits of its power under these

circumstances. so we're gonna see change as always takes place and the popular opinion including mine. so i was always wrong as to what's going to happen . sas vietnam, i was told many times of europe did. united states has finished well will it, that may well be case that hasn't quite happened yet. we have to be very careful of casual opinions. george friedman, thank you and that's it for the show will be back next saturday with another brand new episode. and if it's not centered, keep in touch with all our social media. it had to watch and going on the grantee on ronald of come to watch new and old episode to going underground see very soon ah, at this hour, american and coalition forces are in the early stages of military operations to

disarm iraq, to free its people. and to defend the world from great who's with proof, we will bring to the iraqi food and medicine in supplies. and fleet with ah, a lot of us can, countries are very concerned the china might be sending russia me so weapons as a way to help brush us military campaign in ukraine. how personally, it's my just personal view on very suspicious of that on i don't buy done. it

contradicts to what i see. the basic logic about all the behavior puts on the phone . the chinese things ah, a destruction that you should have called during the retreat from other parts are done by. they blew up critical infrastructure to hinder the russian and about the head of a pronounced. now, the group that claim the responsibility for that the attack in a russian border region says the incident coordinator with a unwilling nation is a quote from.