by let me say these, by the big ones, by the big states, it will be great if africa will gain these permanent seats. it will be good, it will be one step i had to promise lend. when i say your bang up to date with all the latest news from around the world, do you feel free to check out our website, r t dot com for more stores and analysis on his piece of stock on the back again, with more at the top of the hour. thank you for watching in lou . ah, ah

ah, i'm african is ancy and we're going underground. brought gusting all around the world from dubai. in the united arab emirates today is 5 years to the day. am i 6 is so gay scruple recruited from russian security services by an associates of kristof a steel was allegedly poisoned by radioactive nava chalk new england's top secret chemical weapons lab at porton down. steel said the fake dossier against president trump and his my denials were moscow. ne donations accused russia. oh, the poisoning leading to all of nato. he cannot make war on russia. all that is the people of don best were attacked by kiev, leading up to the current war in europe. so when will this european war end and who

will win, or will we all lose with me as an arguable unofficial advisor to the policy makers and corporations involved? arguably now in a global conflict, george friedman, founder of stratford and geopolitical futures. he joins me for today's episode from washington, d. c. thank you so much. sure, george, very coming on. you know, raytheon profits apparently doubled since the new phase, the ukrainian crisis a year ago. i know that they are reportedly a subscriber to geopolitical future. goldman sachs mentioned merrill lynch dow coca cola during your dad to tell us, but when will the war and then who's going to win? well, i don't think he's gonna end very sure. i mean, and i don't see how he the sized and when are the russians are constantly bogged down, they are unable to mount effective incursions. they do some attacks, but they, they ultimately fail the ukrainians are not able to be to. on the other hand,

russia can possibly win because the u. s. weapons that are given to the ukraine is, will devastate them at the same time, or the ukrainians are simply the push back and forth and nothing will happen. so the real point here is, is far work. it's got to be negotiated, and it negotiation is very, very difficult. there's no geographical point where we can divide that thought to forces. well, we're talking to an advisor for the progressive caucus in congress, in a week or so as time. and he's been saying that the negotiations are off the table a a to remember, attract a letter asking for negotiations, calling it scans to mingle defeatist. you say that russia, when i mean some say that all already arguably in the global south, russia has already, one, not least obviously the rubel currency, but the in terms of the deals now being done between bricks countries,

the shang i cooperation organization. russia has already begun creating the new world order that so many have predicted, i think, strapped for and your organization constantly talk about the possibility of one possibility is not a reality. the fact is that russia made a massive intelligence failure before the worry. he did not and anticipate how well you created a fight. it did not really understand that the europeans would not side with your would not side with russia. norris neutral, and he completely misunderstood the united states and always going to happen. so at this point, after a year, he's time trying to small fraction of your credit. so in russia, there is a serious question, as you've asked when does this end? and is also the question asked,

why haven't we done much better than we're supposed to? the expectation was that this would be a fast war. it isn't. and therefore, how did you know that? how did you know that the expectation would be that it would be a fast war? and that actually russia wanted to go in more slowly, not using shocking or tactics that the united states did in iraq, afghanistan, libya, and syria. he did you shock it, or he just did fail that it's, well, yes, roy. yeah, of the way that the americans destroyed baghdad. the point is to point to he's not gone and defeated ukrainian army in a war taking cities destroying them. they don't really count very much. you don't win wars that way. the army must have feet the enemy, army wouldn't, has failed to defeat, do crating army because of american sport. and in that failure, there are severe questions going in russia that can be seen in the social media of

why it couldn't start this war when he couldn't win. and why did he not win? so there's a situation in the russian point. it is quite devastating. i mean, this is a major power fighting a very minor power and not winning. now, learning a country in western europe in some obviously say it's difficult to ascertain the britons popularity has never been higher because he's finally responded to a huge constituency. the majority in, in russia, but you say you want negotiations. do you think by who kind of listing, perhaps he's a subscriber to your organization? i'm not sure. or he was listening to what donald trump was saying in south carolina . that's why he's not supplying the f sixteens biden called for negotiations over 2 months ago. ah,

the russians refused. russians wanted concessions beforehand. so the american position has been that it is also told the ukrainians that he, they have to negotiate whether they want or not. so the american position on this is one, we're not going to let the russians win to, we want to negotiation. and it's couldn't who has had found very difficult to organize a negotiation because there's so many constituencies some where it to the war. so not that the majority is on his side and biden's offer. negotiations was surely premised on the idea that the russians had to get out of crimea. first, they were axiomatic. claims before negotiations would go forward from the american, he negotiate a haitian, you come to the table with certain expectations, expecting to negotiate them away. and you don't call for negotiations simply to have the oversight capitulate. so when he made that the most,

that brazil several times, obviously he was going to come to the table with a maximum. it was position, knew that that's the way it works. but the point was that the russia could not negotiate, given the failure of its 1st offensive. it could not come to the table, it felt unless it, she's a decisive victory. and it hasn't been able to do that. so you don't think that the kremlin policy is actually, and it's been voted for by the duma, is to create this new world order. it's not actually really about you grain. your grain is emblematic of eastwood nato expansion. but it's really about d dollarization about bricks alignment, about the togetherness with china. i don't know it on the outside thing about but, but from the outset they were a army that was very small. that was not designed to go further. the ukraine

was not going to explain, attack nato or anything like that. whatever you know, they sanitized and i don't think they fantasize much. they're very great. realists are. these are things surprise propaganda. they want a new world order. they can't even take ukraine. so that's the problem. how disciplined do you think that nato nation media has been covering the war from that point of view so that we don't see what people are saying in latin america or africa? asia, which is clearly that bruton is a new world leader. and that this has been a great success to be blind, doesn't matter what they're saying. this is a war and the war will end in a certain way. and that will be the reality. and whether or not the 3rd world countries are celebrating goodner, why really doesn't matter. the real question now is the outcome of this war

and how it ends. and even if it ends russia as a great power really doesn't have the economic engine to be able to be a united states or a u. k. or something like that. russia is a very poor country, it's almost a 3rd world country. it has very little effected industry and it lives off the export of primary commodities oil. so it is very hard to see russia as being able to supply the capital that would be needed to dominates the, the world is not as, who dominates out of the world to be a great power. you have to be a source of capital and a buyer of exports, and that's something china has learned, and the russians aligned to russia, made it clear it doesn't want to dominate the world. you don't believe it. all the

loss of energy exports to western europe. obviously, currently suffering a great deal of hardship through their arguable self sanctioning. you don't think that it can all just be replaced by china. the new deal with pakistan, new deals with the global south that are being organized as we speak. well has to be transported. so you can make many deals, but the idea that these countries, especially try to at that distance, is going to be able to efficiently transfer enough energy to solve whatever your, your problems are. and they're doing better than was expected at the beginning of the soil issue. i mean, that's, that's far fetched. they can meet, mitigate some of the problems perhaps. but the infrastructure that russia created to serve the europe, i mean, is necessary. and russia needs it badly to well, i mean, i mean, the nod stream was

a big project to project with pakistan has been muted in the past few days. you mentioned britain as a great power, i presume. historically, we probably both don't have much time for the i'm a full cost, but you saw that russia is for us to do better than britain, a leading member of nato in the country pouring weapons into ukraine. anybody who tries to forecast russia's economy is in fools game. i did with the war going on. it had not clear how it ends. nobody knows where to rushes, i would. russia's economic situation is going to be, nor ukraine's, nor in some senses. even the united states were in a war and i m f is doing peacetime analysis. now, donald trump's, south carolina speech was not even covered on a network. u. s. television. i don't know whether that's another sign of kind of implicit me does censorship going on?

he is clear and said, this is not russia's soul fault. what has happened in ukraine? what do you think of trump's chances and what do you think of the impact of media censorship of trump's campaign on his presidential chances? it's extraordinary how much ground he's lost in the united states. he has core support. but beyond that, it's almost boring. who it's wood trump is doing. so trump has been a presence in american politics for a long time. he lost the last election show say, behave badly as one of it, but many, many people simply don't care what he says. so i don't think this censorship going on as much as in difference. so why is my dogs fox news doing so? well, the most popular cable channel, one that does allow trump to speak, and the ratings of m as m, b, c, and cnn,

and those competitors on cable or dropping catastrophically. i watch fox news to understand the small faction is doing. ah, and it's interesting to hear trump. so in many ways he's become a museum piece. and you know, whatever it is, the seated politicians don't do very well. one of the myths the media has created is that in spite of trump b roundly defeated and found lee embarrassed by what happened on jurors and january 6th. that he still is a major figure as it. what is unique here is that this is sort of the 1st time i've seen. i defeated a president unable to rise up being treated as a real possibility for re election. i'd, i don't think when, when you look at the numbers he's likely to get to,

to re record now that nomination char treatment, i'll stop you there. more from the geopolitical forecaster and chairman of geopolitical futures after this break. ah ah ah ah, a lot of us can countries are very concerned the china might be sending russia be

so weapons as a way to help brush us military or we can pay in ukraine. personally, that's my just personal view on very suspicious of that. i don't buy does it contradicts to what i see. the basic logic of behavior puts in the firm, the chinese state. ah ah, welcome back to going undergoing. i'm still here with the geopolitical forecast and chairman of geopolitical futures, george friedman. you think there would be a war in europe if trump was president biden, of course, was sending in weapons and special forces ahead of the 24th of february last year. well, we're trump tries to forget his, he supplied poland with many of the tanks and weapons are when he went there,

they were going to call it off for trump, if you remember that. and he was instrumental in setting it up, which was reasonable and possible. but the idea that somehow he had a magic formula to deal with, ah, the russians, remember, if the russians were to take ukraine, nato from the northern parts of the southern part would be facing russian forces. and the question would be, what will the russians do next? and that's the question that the russians may not know, or they may know very well and frustrated, but giving up ukraine and simply walking away would have bought them directly into the cold war again. and i don't think trump or any other american president wants to sit at the full the gap. and i tried experience. there's a cold war except that representatives on boys of the united nations representing

most of humanity, did not share the opinions of western europe or the united states and did not condemn what russia believes is a saving of the people of don bass. i mean, south korea refusing to aid that was the, the detractors of nature says, nature's war on russia through ukraine. we had president lulu has been on this program. he said, in the past few days, the war on poverty. no russia. i'm definitely fascinated both people say, i'm far more interested in what they do and what we had one vote in the united nations condemning russia's attack, which even china abstain only 5 countries voted against it. and so the changes, so that vote was taken and a men nothing. and other votes voices will be heard. but we are in a war. and just like the condemnation of adolf hitler, but to compare them,

i didn't mean anything to how the war came out. so on both sides, what noncombatants are saying doesn't really matter. the united states cannot live . and europe can't live with the russian forces directly under border of nato. because that says out of the war and russia cannot live with the united states, 260 miles away from moscow. these are serious people, sadie, serious war. and most of those are offering opinions really don't understand. and just are saying things. your famously wrote the book coming war with japan in 1991 . so for a while, south korea refuse to aid. they just war japan as well. even you must have been a little surprised that it's a change. it's constitutional. most of the 1945 in terms of its rearming you now think for japan still poses

a threat or is this part of the future that you saw? every nation with weapons poses a nest, a potential threat to everyone else that stuff interesting. japan has decided that even the dangers emanating from north korea, but even more out of china, that it must have its own navy, which i think is a prudent thing for them to do. it is allied with the united states and that's fine . but over the course of time, these things change, we don't have to assume that it will remain the same. but it's not a surprise at the world's 3rd largest economy. should be acquiring a military force equal to that. and you believe that russia can't win the war in ukraine. you're seeing the friendship grow between bridging and moscow. do you believe that the united states and what some say of the vessel

states of europe are prepared really to fight a war against china and russia on 2 fronts? it is impossible for china to aid russia. the distances involved are just enormous . this is a land war, having a navy or something doesn't matter. and in that land war, transporting the 500000 troops physically then feeding them is simply an impossible thing. which is why for a year, china has steered clear of involvement in this war. if they were going to get involved, they get involved much sooner. but stock going to happen, it's logistically, impossible as to will do. united states continue. well, the alternative is to bring have russian forces on the border of poland, of slovakia, of hungary, of odd romania. and the question then is ok,

we voided this war. now we face at russia's option, war farther to the west. so it, is it initiated this war? what is the next word initiates, and under the circumstances, a prudent political leader has to say, i'm much better off holding them back in ukraine than i am for watching and march on vienna. i'm not sure how much hungry is so, so both are to have that out. i'll give, leave it then what about the economic war? you say the pipelines are going to be billed quick enough? the energy gas will be frank in the u. s. and coming into europe and replacing russian energy, surely the way the 2nd cooperation organization sees it. and certainly here in the middle east, they see it of course have your, a beer in the you a famously didn't take biden's phone calls to increase the oil supply is, this is an economic war that is gradually being one against u. s. and germany,

whether it be d dollarization or energy and resource exploitation. well, if there's a d, dollarization, it is not a pro ruble that event. but if you remember, the arabs said no now, but the arab is live and die by selling oil. are the ability of many of the countries to receive the oil physically is difficult. so we, we have to be very careful. all sorts of nonsense is in the air. you know, the idea, for example, that hungary, ah, is simply for a russian or anything like that. i returned to position did because expected the russians to overwhelm ukraine very quickly when they didn't stay kind of sat there wondering what next to do. and i'm from weren't born and angry, sorry. noted that ah, this is very important to understand. it was saying we have in america,

money talks, i'll say, other things walk. so there is so much jabbering going on. look at where the artillery shows for look as with the casualties are. that will tell us what's happening. well, i suppose one thing that keeps coming up here is that russia was somehow taken by surprise. by the response. do you really think? when so many analysts were predicting that actually the west is dying, the united states is dying. the famous 40000000 people, you know, in poverty, in the united states, these powers are now ending the u. s. m bows, and of course, they would all coagulating this kind of way as the new age is created. to look at a very curly, he did think he could eat, eat united states. he was wrong. he has been wrong thus far. because

he was listening to those people who were our united states was dead. ever since. around 950 europeans had been declaring the death of the united states, the united states so far from collapsing its serge, it's the largest economy in the world. ah, and it's the most creative in terms of technology, and it has the ability kind of technology from china, for example. i think it's really a mistake to see the united states this way. but this was the other example of the failure of russian intelligence. they believed that they were hearing. if that was why they went, surely they intended to take ukraine. and surely they would have done that if they thought united states was going to do what it did. but it did do it and now they're floundering well of our visit. they didn't want to take here. but you've also written about budgeting isolationism. i don't know whether that relates to the

wealth steve bands famous phrase for trump, the american carnage. that as you say, the united states has so much to offer, but is leaving behind such an underclass. do you think that is one of the factors there in a new isolationism? that may be, well, i don't know, give me a time scale for it. well, i have a weakness here because i'm living in the united states and i don't see this masses the stabilization of society. we are in washing or you just have to go up the road . i mean, live life expectancy live lower than have an are in some but i live in texas. okay . and in texas have that mexicans and so and so forth. and the united states is far too complex, a country to reduce to pardon me, simplistic models like that. ah, there are people dying in the united states is there is in every may. we also have

enormous numbers of immigrants trying to get in. so as a form arrogant, i know that the countries that are best of the ones i want to go to and they're not struggling to get into many of the countries that you would give a why are they leaving? because of the u. s. foreign policy has so many of said i'm going to just finish george with one question about julian sanchez been on this program. and you must be really annoyed, by the way, if any one has been a victim of wiki leaks, it was you, there was no, it was suddenly the strap organization, despite the enmity between the 2 of you. and i would say i spoke to judy and i did say strapped for was a, was an important publication. the one that you found it. would you still call for his freedom? nevertheless, i wouldn't call her as freedom or refused h u d. the legal system of britain is just fine. as for what he is, i think kitty is ah unreasonable wrecker. and

yes, he heard me by doing it. he didn't find anything there. but he has made his name for himself and history will judge him. he's another one of these things that are interesting once that matters not twice. well, journalists use his work all the time. and if the american caught the espionage act, of course that, that got him, i suppose just finally than in 20 years time. i mean, i'm sure you get it exhaust all the time. what's going to happen though, are seeing a changing of the guard. one of those powerful countries in europe now is poland. it has after britain, the re, to really the 2nd largest effective military force. our st. japan become more a military. ah, we see russia trying to come to terms of the limits of its power under these circumstances. so we're gonna see change as always takes place and the

popular opinion including mine. so i was always wrong as to what's going to happen . sas, vietnam, i was told many times of europe did united states just finished? well, well, if that may well be case, but hasn't quite happened yet. we have to be very careful of casual opinions. george friedman, thank you and that's it for the show will be back next saturday with another brand new episode. and if it's not sensitive, keep in touch with all our social media that had to watch and going on the grantee on ronald of com, to watch new and old episodes going underground. see very soon with ah, what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy confrontation, let it be an arms. race is often very dramatic. development only personally,

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