johnstone, that's all for now. be sure to check out our t dot com for all the latest breaking news and updates. we'll see right back here at the top of the hour. with a lender. the leaves are in the cheap state of anxiety in america. there is a stage sanction effort to destroy trump in his followers. europe, faces mass protests and economic dislocation when it comes to foreign policy. western gemini, hinges on the fate of ukraine. overall. the outlook is bleak. ah,

i'm after it and see and welcome back to going underground ball. gusting. all round the world from dubai in the u. e. this week we're asking, is it really all doom and gloom for the global economy? nature nation meet european shock went shocked when opec plus suddenly announced the slashing of oil production in stark contrast to the begging of abiding administration that's only just had to bail out the 2nd was bank failure in u. s. history. joining me today to make sense of it all from the form of financial center, the world london, is professor daniel the collier chief economist at the spanish wealth management fun tresses. and he's been ranked as one of the top 20 most influential economists in the world. thank you so much shy, daniel for our coming on forget to s v b as a good valley, a bank. what about credit suisse? because need an asian media accommodate. just seemed desperate to say, look,

this is nothing like 20 o 8 and then we have pizza. shifts here of euro pacific capital, who i think, you know, saying isn't going to get better. this is going to be worse than 2008. and we must remember that the numbers of hundreds of thousands of excess deaths that the 20 o 8 crisis cause when it came to poverty, cold, hunger, 40000000 am in the usa, a going hungry to night. hey, well i think thank you so much for having me. i think it's somewhere in between to be fairly honest to say that it's nothing like 2008 and it's going to be just a small piece of news and transferred to a much larger risk. makes no sense. but i think at the same time that precisely because the problems of the financial sector are global and because of the excess debt that exists all over the world, when everybody's in deep trouble than virtually no one is in deep trouble. so at

the end of the day, there is a concerted effort, both from governments and central banks to avoid a 2008 star crisis. however, the challenges obviously are enormous because we've had a decade of negative negative interest rates that has obliterated the balance sheet of banks and it has created an enormous bubble that goes from sovereign bonds to crypto currencies. and what's happening right now is the destruction of capital of so many of those. ready investments loans that were made with perception of valuation or perception of a risk that certainly. ready are profoundly optimistic now. so i think that and so you would you sympathize with the home us treasury? neural rubini saying, look us banking sectors. on the verge of catastrophe had unrealized losses on

security. the money, $620000000.00, which together with a higher interest rates, point 2 and realized $1.00 trillion dollars loss. the banking system is gone, is gone. i wouldn't say that the u. s. banking system in its entirety, but certainly that there's going to be more episodes like silicon valley bank for more worried about the european banking system because the european banking system did not get out of the 2011 crisis and with a clean up of nonperforming loans with the clean out of the, of the balance sheet, at least in the united states. you get a shock in the united states, you have mark to market on a monthly basis on a quarterly basis of all of the assets. and therefore you can immediately see

whether. ready there is a big financial hole in a, in a bank or not, in the case of european union, you have now just a challenges that were built up throughout the 2011 crisis and a decade of nominal negative rates. but on top of that, you have this very challenging situation with convertible, contingent bonds that can create a domino effect on the equity. so i think that usually when these things start, when these crisis banking crisis start, we always hear the same narrative, which is the u. s a problem of legal banking sector and everybody else was fine. and then as it happened, 2011, we actually see is that the challenges are global. so i think that is going to be a massive re basement of the asset base that you just mentioned. and there's going to, there's going to appear in the bond side. and the equity side certainly is going with

the central bank, central banks and europe, denial that and so they learned so much in the fall have to fear 20 weight crises. and the growth is that went after it. do you said it was everywhere? the situation, arguably where i'm speaking the from everyone's talking about a boom in entrepreneurial capitalism and a sale and round, se, asia, so it's not everywhere is it, isn't there gonna decode global economy going on here. that while you're speaking to me from the old world where people are talking about imminent bank elapses, are with their huge unrealized debt. and over here, they're opening new banks and they're trying to start out all new innovations and their businesses back to often buy global self serve governments. you just mentioned a great word. i've been talking from the old world. no. and what year would you're

actually living in southeast asia. busy what you're actually living in the. ready middle east is. busy is actually banking the way that it should be now that it should be done with real assets with, with real prospects of. ready growth and with opportunities and innovation, etc. absolutely. but the global financial system is fully interconnected. so if there's a ripple effect can happen. but you're absolutely right. this time there is a huge difference between the banking system in the united states or the euro area, relative to those countries in which there's been no to start with. the 1st thing that those, none of those countries have had to do was create an artificial bubble through negative rates, real rates and nominal, where rates were actually positive. so by the way, because they pay the currencies,

they have to keep up with money printing. exactly where to keep up with the money printing, but at least they keep up with the money printing in a sense of away now we're just to understand that. but the price of risk has to be has to be real and has to be realistic and that valuations have to be relatively relatively comfortable. so that the bank simply don't see a domino effect like silicon valley bank. so which, which was not a collapse because they invested in technology but it collapses. ready they had a message somewhere and bond book that had that, that generate those on realize losses that you mentioned how be it that there was a measurement from this region and southeast asia. i just, you were talking about it being in the connected, the fact opec plus or reduced oil, her output. if things are really as interconnectedness as you suggest,

they wouldn't one. are we going to economic war de facto with the other side? the old world would be, i think, is really that interconnected, any more there are differences. absolutely. the reason i think that everybody was shocked by, in the, in the old world as you say, about the decision to cut production from the past. and certainly that raises a few questions, but it is also true that the open position comes fundamentally from a weakening global demand picture. so, and, and the weakening global demand picture comes from the technician of the us on the european economy. jack, huge importance of oil and gas. so i think division is basically a reflection of everything that we're talking about now. i said they see that on the one hand demand growth is not as expected. second, that the,

that make taking a measure to defend oil price and of the same time the see very little in terms of negative ramifications on the producing countries. so we are seeing that, that's, that, you know, on the one hand, everything is interconnected. but on the other hand, there are a regional exposures that allow are producers in this case to take positions that are probably the most driven. ready toward making the situation internally better. ready rather than just that i used to be in terms of open policy. ready x policy used to be more about what the united states do. that is not the case anymore. i don't. yeah. when i'll give the opec was a proxy, but just explained to me one thing because obviously that was a decision. russia saudi arabia, you a not sure whether it will effect china very well because it needs energy and also

the factor of a person to did this is truly a benefit to the united states because the united states is the biggest oil export it. oh, it is never understand that the media coverage will explain why it actually the united states benefits from the saudi production and the russian production cut. absolutely. the reason why the united states benefits from the old production card is because the united states has become the marginal provider of. ready oil for the rest of the world when there's a reduction in production for many of the of the opec producers and united states has gone to produce. ready almost 11000000 barrels a day, which is more than what saudi arabia. ready russia produce but and the fact that the united states has become almost energy independent. ready is an important factor that, for example, has saved the european union in its energy prices by bringing liquefied natural

gas from the united states. when the intentions with russia became more evident. so all of that is benefiting the united states. on the one hand, it all you believe in north stream was right by the, by the administration. because suddenly you just tell me the motive. yeah. no, i don't. i don't know. but do you know who is the biggest beneficiary of the no a string or collapsed it was the norwegian, oil company state, norwegian or company that was if you look at the earnings, that's the what the united states didn't benefit from it to that. and we were just telling me about the n and g though, and the opening of energy terminal. is it how it already had all of it sold in advance? so why would they would be implementing such a, such a such an action makes,

makes no sense to me. it was already sold. bonds are in long term contracts. wait. so the u. s. l n g that could go to europe couldn't replace the energy that would have gone through extreme no, it wouldn't be the united states ability to export is campbell, but not unlimited. so, so, so it would not have sent a more energy to the european union unless it endanger supply of the united states itself. and that's not going to happen if you think about it, if they enter into a situation in which the arbitrage between the price and the european union price in the united states is, is ample enough in order to make it more profitable to send to the european union, the best way to do it is to enter to long term contracts. nobody in the oil and

industry as you know very well one sport or volatility. busy everybody wants as many long term contracts as possible and the united states when the ukraine invasion happened. they entered into the long term contracts that they could, more would have been virtually impossible. ready so any beneficiary of the north stream collapsed, it's the state owned region company, and obviously it knows the producers. well, the norwegian government obviously denies any involvement in the eco atrocity. of course, i'm not even sure. i know, you know, you haven't been that you have me give me a motive. people can see our interview with to rumble channel professor daniel, like i, i'll stop you that more from the chief economist of the wealth management fund dress. it's after this break. ah,

who is the aggressor today i'm authorized to additional strong sanctions? today? russia is the country with the most sanctions imposed against it. and number is constantly growing. 3, jo, such us literally, unless of course renewed as you speak on the bill in your senior, mostly mine the wish you were banding all in ports of russian oil and gas news. i know they plenty of those with the letter from, you know, we're pretty good regarding joe, by imposing these sanctions on russia has destroyed the american economy. so there's your boomerang. ah, welcome back to going undergrad. i'm still here with professor daniel. like i had chief economist at the wealth management fund,

trespass. what has been the impact of sanctions on russia from your viewpoint? because, i mean, why, why was the rubel the strongest performing currency of 2022. given that the bi demonstration himself said the rubel will be rubble. well, the ruble. busy is a very complicated currency on the one hand, it has capital controls. so most russian citizens simply cannot exchange rules for us dollars or euro's. so the exchange rate is a relatively massage or managed by the, by the central bank. and i think that basically, on the other hand, there's another reason is that the global oil and gas market is, is global and fully interconnected. so sanctions against russia has basically meant that russia would export a lot more to china. and india,

which haven't been, as you mentioned prior the main beneficiaries of, of, or receiving all oil and gas at a discount from, from russia. so basically what has happened is that the reaction economy has gotten into a. ready massive trade surplus, that certainly helps and the utilization is proven. you can, i say sion of the ruble as a currency is virtually in exist and globally. however, it is true that the interconnection with china and with india has stand the gold reserve, frank. and the goal, is there a gold reserves matter to a certain extent go reserves are important. and there is certainly the governor russian central bank or his award. she's a woman, i don't remember how to,

certainly, but she implemented a policy of defending the reserve based on the central bank in a very non keen shan way, not printing money massively. so not printing money massively certainly has helped stabilize the rule in the situation that could have been, as you said before, very, very negative, obviously come back to the point capital controls. ready are a, are a very negative thing for the russian population that want to exchange those for euro's on for dollars. and the other hand, it has strengthened the ties with china, undoubtedly there and with india. and those 2 have basically offset all of all of the negative impact on exports to, to the european union, and probably by a very,

very large difference. well, the central bank governor in moscow, lena, came under attack. are you ready for leaving loads of money in the united states as russia went in to, as they saw it, defend the people don't bass, which shows the problems of decoupling doesn't have from the american economy. everyone in the global south, all talking about the coupling as you know from the u. s. currency. how difficult is it for china to d? couple, i understand the latest figures here. the 6th straight mother decline in us. treasury is lois, it's 20 or $9859000000.00, joiner owns of a frontline us debt. how careful do they be? have to be and how easy it is. straight years of decline in us that buying by the chinese government. they can just pull the rug, can they? no, no, we have to remember. we have to remember that for china, they're huge,

new as dollar reserves, which are fundamentally in us that are one of the principles of the strength of the central bank. it provides stability to the un. no. and how easy is it to recover from the u. s. dollar? it's very difficult. and the reason why it's very difficult is that when countries like china, russia, india, so many other countries think of the company. the problem is that none of them think of what makes the u. s. dollar reserve currency. and that is that there is in a fire or it is the house largest number of windows and doors. it's liquidity . so the problem that one finds, when do you see alternatives to the u. s. data, they may be non state owned,

but state fear currencies that could be an alternative to us dollar. is that the, the perverse incentive of central banks and governments of implementing covered and controls immediately make it impossible for that currency to be a world reserve currency ok. but then perhaps we should define what decoupling is. and history is seeming to move much quicker every other week. you can still have a kind of peg to the dollar while being the couple that he probably not a buyer of us treasury bills. and debt cannot you. i mean, the, you on is kind of pegged to the dollar, isn't it? yeah, yeah, in a way, absolutely, honest. the u. n. is fully back to the you are starting to think about it the, the way that the p, b, o. c, the central bank of china managers fixing on the un is fully aligned. ready what. ready you just mentioned, which is the variability of the reserve until the dollar starts declining massively

. whereupon the communist body would surely say no, we're not buying anymore us treasury exactly which, which could happen. but the reason why it doesn't happen or is not happening is because the other, at the end of the day in b as in bonds in currencies, you always have to think of the, the us dollar versus something, or the us treasury versus cents. and the problem is right now, the alternative, the alternatives are not feasible to offset the kingdom of the us dollar. to start with, the euro is the only word reserve currency that has re denomination risk. so, you know, we never know, but one day a country can decide to leave the euro on. the entire house cards can collapse. the un is a currency that has many positive things you mentioned before, the gold reserves you mentioned that the strength of the chinese economy.

absolutely, but it has capital controls and that is not good for investment houses like yours in for financial institution. but as a reserve currency, it could be something with a future, obviously offering less ability to gamble and speculate ton probably why, you know, people like you probably don't, don't like very much. i'm going to ask for, you know, we know, we like we like capital controls. i know you don't like capital controls. clearly, if we could just ask you your advice as to giving, given the higher oil prices, energy prices, and the risk of you had, nobody liked risk of economic collapse and european economic that's what can asian economies, latin american, african you know, china, what can they do to mitigate the risks, the world bank, the saying a decade of last growth and saying we're all doom and gloom walk, walk in the rest of the world. most of the will do to mitigate the loss of my

b. and it says very straightforward and simple. and so, but it's a very complicated one to implement. we're chase, avoid tween deficits at all costs. and what is the problem? the problem is that everybody complains now about the risk of contagion, etc. but if you are from a government perspective or country from a government perspective, decides to constantly go to massive deficits, be it on the fiscal or on the commercial front or both. then inevitably you're becoming more dependent on the you are stellar, i come back to the point. it's where you are only you could just default on you could default on the deficit, couldn't you? yeah, exactly, but that doesn't, that doesn't work. that doesn't work. busy whatever default is the witnessed what a sovereign state default. it is, the proof to the world that it's unfolded, but it's still the old world, isn't it?

it's to the old world argentina, did that. if you do what you are saying, and massively cut public spending just because you're obsessed by the deficit, like the government, the national economy, with some grocery shop businesses. that to say, you're in trouble. are you because you'll end up in a revolution a political revolution, as you said, well, the public sessions? yeah. you just mentioned argentina, argentina is a country with a 100 percent integration. so yeah, it's very, it seems, it seems like a great idea to enter into messages and then it not pay it. it's great. now it looks like a good idea until you know what that means when it basically means ultimately, what is that for one country is an assay for another country that is buying it, obviously now, but you mention argentina, they're in there because they countless countries in africa isn't it merely that default a procedure, a stage in the development of

a decoupled country from that us system. and we haven't mentioned the, i'm f, a g is doing a bit better now than it was back in those days. in the initial years after the default, similarly, isn't this all about break, shang i cooperation organization. decoupling and the default is just to be on the way to it. i mean, i know china is a contributed the m f, i should say, but isn't it a merely a staging post? so think about this year, even if it's china, china is a very intelligent and very long term country. the idea that a country is going to default on the united states or on the euro area and that it, but it's not going to do it on china, makes no sense. the, the default process in itself, the destruction of the conference in government might have by the market to no

just the markets, but by anyone that wants to lend to the country. so if so, if i'm the chinese government and i see a government that has defaulted a times, i guarantee you that the chinese who are very, very pride, very intelligent and, and know what they're doing with their money. they're not going to lend to that country. certainly in ins, conditions are going to be better than the ones that they were receiving calls. and this is a political default, arguably. and politics does have a mention of that. that was in the united states. just one final question. just one final question, who is going to own ukraine, given russia, saying, it doesn't want to have when this war horrible war ends is the i m f is the debt. i mean, i don't know whether the tech to we defaulted on. clearly, ukraine is not the ukrainian people's, at the end of this war,

regardless of russia, saying it doesn't want to take over west and ukraine and poland doesn't. is it the international monetary fund in the britain's woods institution? who is it that owns ukraine? these are humble, evil, sums of money going into a problem that economy and then learn the weapons. what are, what a good question, what a challenge, one to respond is going to be going to be a very long process or reconstruction. that is going to require an incredible amount of money from different different countries. and ultimately it's going to be a question of whether that process happens like about. i don't know like the id after the 2nd with europe or similar, but it's a very difficult one to i'm so i don't, i don't know. i certainly right now for me,

i don't see that. i don't see that any of the, of the, of the outcomes that we read in the press seem to be the ones that will probably end up happening now. but it's certainly going to be the reconstruction, the entire reconstruction of the country. and that's, i won't say that the i d i m f is going to own it. certainly without the i m s. i don't see it happening. professor danny, look, i thank you. thank you so much. and that's it for this year. we'll be back next saturday with world renowned energy market expert allowed g. but until then, you can keep in touch, why will i so she'll be do if it's not sense that in your country and had to watch channel going underground tv on rumble dot com to watch new and old episodes of going on the ground. so you saturday, ah ah,

[000:00:00;00] ah, ah, russia claim. so legal classifies pentagon documents about the war and you praying, reveal nothing new that those questions remain about the authenticity of the file. the u. s. could pull its support for ukraine and we are up to face the conflict on it. so that's the warning to the french president when the republican senator entering choppy waters detention spike in the pacific region as a u. s. navy vessel sale through the south china sea. all bay major drills all around taiwan a