ah, ah, i'm african or tansy and welcome back to going underground, broadcasting all around the world from do by in the heart, the energy rich, middle east. this week we ask, do oil sanctions work, or merely kill people in the countries doing the sanctioning? the biden administration continues to die. seymour hersh, his report that it blew up europe's pipelines, destabilizing global energy markets, and creating the largest man made single fossil fuel emission event. while sanctions, meanwhile, on russia, routinely assumed by nato nation media to be an appropriate response to what has been happening in ukraine. one analyst who believes the war in europe signals

a new order in global energy markets and politics is the current managing partner of the advisory firm, energy outlook, advisors award winning scholar on us ology, former chief economist at n g p. energy capital management joins me now from texas. thank you so much and us for coming on before we get to that new india and global energy markets. i better just begin with asking you why you tweeted the e you is doomed. if pipelines are effective, like nord stream start getting attacked her all the time, they become the norm. after what happened and what cyrus claims was, they effectively abide and blink can sullivan. newland attack sure, if you look around the world or what you see is and whether you see this and old days in columbia, you see it in nigeria than yemen. everyone who gets mad basically that, that, that pipelines and once it starts, basically every group that wants something they start to look at the rock,

for example, to they started attacking oil facilities and by, oh, who ever attacked that pipeline? basically, they just opened a can of water in this case where they are telling everyone, look, you can do that. you can literally do a copycat or whatever reason you want. and that was the fear at that time is that most of euro basically is, and or the reach of russia. if russia wants to retaliate at the same time, there are other countries involved and they have interest to, you know, we already have, she's, of our countries expressing their interest in either piping that gosh to europe, or sending it through l. n g, or various message from from the u. s. that would be, but that doesn't explain why. this has to be a kind of radio silence in nature, nation media even about the investigations, the german of the swedish and the danish investigation teams haven't gone public.

they've said they've investigated and they haven't said who did it. i mean they are, the energy trade is not interested in it because clearly it had an impact on the energy markets, let alone the environment absolutely show from my point of view. i don't have any private information at all. i know she more hershberger done a lot of work on this, and good to speak of from a pure theoretical point of view when i talk about energy security. and it is very clear that russia does not have an interest in this and pos specially divided and miss ration has no interest either ship. i was really surprised when i read the report by shem on hersch, simply because it was very clear that the by them instruction was trying to make every single effort to supply europe with enough energy for the winter. and they got lucky and they got lucky on 2 fronts. the got lucky because of the mild winter. and they got lucky because of the

a no or lack of hurricane out of damaging hurricane in the gulf of mexico, where all the l in g basically is made. and all the ships basically leave the gulf of mexico to europe. should they got lucky. but without that, euro would have been in big trouble. so the issue is we've seen the efforts by the administration to supply europe with energy to the extent that they ignored all the human rights issues in iran or the human rights issues in venezuela or the sanctions on those 2 countries. and they literally give exemptions to certain companies to ship the oil from those countries to europe. so the idea here is very clear that they didn't bite an illustration wants to secure energy supplies in europe. and it's not an interest to bomb the gas pipelines before the winter. apologies to the sound that we will continue. people can watch our interview about

the economist magazine and it's brutal history on our rumble channel. but even the economist said that the excess will debt this wind to 185000. you saying that just a not a major, major hurricane, but a reasonable arkwin in the gulf of mexico could have meant hundreds, thousands more dying off to the energy price instability caused by the north stream pipeline exposure. i don't know about the numbers on the desk, but the whole idea here is that we have and this is one of the main results of the one year of conflict, is that we, we've seen switch a complete switch independence from russian gauss to american russian guys was pipe, was way cheaper, was long term contracts. why did the u. s. l n g is way more expensive and way more dangerous. and essentially, when it comes to energy security,

simply because it, as we've seen with the fire at the free port, and we end up with some problems technical problems and will wind up with hurricane in the gulf of mexico, where europe is going to get the gas from because some of its been replaced. i mean this that there are sanctions. no, this is, this is the problem. the issue here is this. all we did, and this is again, one of the major results of the conflict is we have changes in the direction of trade in energy sources, merely oil and gas and coal. and it's musical chairs, heat. that's what the sanctions did. so miss, you can share, we, we diverted the russian gas to asia, we send the american gas europe, we diverted the oil from europe to asia, and the middle east and africa. and then the middle east and africa stop sending or to europe show. yes. people who think will europe secured?

well, it's secure through various measures. one of them is musical chairs. and if we have a massive growth in china and the chinese start competing for the available in g, we might see it could prices again and candy europe is afforded that the other issue is that because the sanctions really never worked historically and they don't work. it's becoming short of a joke that you will ban yourself from that she brush an oil, and yeah, and then your to pho, china, takes that she, boyd, refine it, then send you the gasoline, a diesel at ward prices. this is just a joke. wait so, so in effect, and this is something you won't hear on that so called mainstream media in a donations that the people paying for putins war as they call it, are the european union countries that a sanctioning themselves. and they are paying a general price. if you look at the spending that those governments made to kind of

a mitigate the impact of the enter to crash. it is in billions of dollars. and if you look at it in term of living standards, i mean forgot shake people went back to, to wood and burning wood. and remember to talk about the showers and the hot showers and change the thermostat and all that stuff. the living standards basically went down, so it's not only the financial cost, it's the living standards to that to play the role here. the other thing is that it be additional issue. people really? i mean, if you go through african, the middle east, i heard this so many times in russia months. and we heard it during the cup of 27 and sure, i'm a chef. and egypt, what the european would tell the africans and the middle easterners where they tell them. oh, you cannot use fossil fuel, but they went back to cool. they told them, you cannot give subsidies to your population to support gasoline and diesel prices

. but we are going to do it anyway. so there was a damage to their reputation that i think it would take very long time to, to repair well on the actual supply dimension. what the, what does it mean and what you're saying for the reputations of reuters of bloomberg. i mean, are they weaponized nato news sources because they say the russian oil as been replaced by middle oil, middle to east oil. as if opec is not an interconnected market and, and the actually, the, the well doesn't need russia and this punishment is very successful. okay. well, it is your musical chair, so it depends how you look at it. but we do have serious problems. since you mentioned the media, we do have a serious problem because since 2017, we've seen data deterioration indoor and us. and what we see now as one of the mirror results of this conflict is that we have a very large fleet of tankers. that's going dark,

we'll call them ghost ships. no one can track them, but they have oil, and they are the russians, basically, along with the iranians and of israel is basically perfected the game. and what we have right now as a result of the conflict is the largest black market ever in the history of the oil industry in oil. what that means is we already have data deterioration as 2017 and now the data got to really, really wars and waiters it p o, bloomberg or others. what they do is they depend on technology to track ships. and if that technology does not in order show specifically are not turning on that technology, they have to be tracked then or no one can track them out. but few and writers and bloomberg cannot track those ships. so what's going to happen is we have data to

deterioration and then those media outlets are reporting what only that technology enabling them to report, making the situation even worse. so the figures are all likely correct because they are way less than what the actual market is. to give you an example, we've seen this with iran. there were reporting that the iranians were exporting 400000 barrels a day. we know for a fact through various means and other means some of it is direct information that there were for the exporting about 80900. so double to which of course, the american say the americans always say ever increased vigilance wills will succeed. but i mean, in a sense, the great janet jaelyn, the treasury secretary of joe biden, isn't she recognizing that by saying price caps is another element in the alma, not just sanctions, this price caps on oil. one of the main lessons we learned from this experience here that sanctions never work. what they do is they cause

a lot of pain to both sides of the conflict. but they don't work. they don't achieve the objectives booth and has not changed. his stand heated. that's number one, but it, they cause a lot of pain and if your objective is just to cause pain, yes, if they're successful. but the pan is for both sides. not only that. as for the price cab, the price cab is literally a joke. and the news that being publishing that russian revenues decline because of the price cap, does not make any sense. and i'll tell you why the price cab was implemented on the 5th and does not apply to all the tankers that left at that time. so all the tankers at she basically at that time, they are off that hook. and for what for the revenues to become taxable and the government received those revenues, it takes months, sometimes it takes 66 months, 7 months, sometimes 9 months. and all of

a sudden 2 weeks, no money had not even be received yet. and janet jaelyn is saying, or their revenues went down because of the price got, was to haven't received the money, talk for revenues even to decline. she can she, that it was pure, pure propaganda trying to market the price kept doctor analogy. i'll stop you there . more from the world renowned expert on energy markets in the managing partner, energy outlook advisors after this break. ah, ah. ah

myrtle had now been little more than a bedroom number. oh no. those are those did you do not actually show switch him? you lose through tends to lose your glue to just east you are you, you have good luck or a difference on the when it was, you know,

ah, welcome back to going underground. i'm still here with world renowned expert on energy markets and managing partner energy outlook, advisors doctor and us al hagey. if it is a game of musical chairs and notice antony blinkin and nato leaders, yen salt and berg claim a brilliant strategy to destroy russia. perhaps before they try another strategy against china, who knows what about 3rd party sanctions? isn't that starting to understand your analysis and say, oh well, we'll do 3rd body sanctions like against syria and her. i mean, syria is a separate case because there's actually stealing the oil of syria without well, it was, was so marty sanctioned listless why you have sanchez and then they have the price gap. both of them together do not make sense because sanchez, basically you stop. literally, you stop the price cab legalized literally legalize the flow of russian oil

in this case. and as long as you buy your oil below this price, then you can get all the services. it is in the u. s. interest. and the u. n. threats for the russian oil to continue flowing. because if you go for 3rd party sanctions and you limit the exports of russia, all prices will increase and might crush a $100.00 again, as a result of that. and then what the united states would do. we have the election coming in 2024. we have election day, you too, so they don't want energy prices to go up, show it is very clear that the price cab was designed to legalize russian exports. and that's really what happened. so a lot of your analysis, which includes this sir. not the ghost of care of the ghost ships that are running around the world's oceans. we have a price cap that so far, it's in determining what its effect is. you been talking previously about increased

uranium, uranium imports from russia to the usa. you've talked about japan being exempt from certain sanctions and even european ensure as being a i mean who is funding po tins war as it says on the tablet is, is washington and the you funding putin's war? i cannot answer this question. the service, it is only going to a russian revenue, right. which is use the idea. well, the idea here is if they block russian oil russian gas, they will suffer significantly and that is the shang in arabic, that they call the game a biting fingers. that 2 people will challenge each other. it won't put his finger in the other person mouse and then bite on it. and she has been scream 1st. and it becomes the game of if they want to go for full sanctions,

it becomes the game of biting fingers who is going to scream 1st. and given the history ok, russia as a vicious dictator. and they literally can handle the pain. ah, more than democracy's remark, russia denies it as a dictator. he was elected, he's only a dictator. i think i think the national, even the u. s. government doesn't say that also does saddam hussein on our side and bush on our side were elected to well, no, i think the american say that putin was elected you also, or maybe partly coming off that view, that if you think that putin wasn't elected, you aren't as excited about the shang, i cooperation, organization and bricks partnerships in terms of di dollarization and some other analysts. does that mean? if the saudis, the u. e, continuing to pay their currencies to the dollar, they're not interested in changing. does that mean the americans will just continue

raising interest rates to keep their dollar competitive as the world requires that currency? i mean, it'll have an impact then on those currencies will, will janet jaelyn raise the rates despite the harm it may do to ordinary americans where you are in dallas or are, or the shake of time since we don't have enough time to discuss this in details all of these issues are written in our newsletter. so for people who are interested, they can read the details of all the things that is not substitute for the dollar to the stitch. pity and oil is priced in u. s. dollar, and there is no substitute. yes, some people who say, well look in shanghai exchange, we have literally the oil is priced in year one, which is absolutely true that oil is priced in the wine and the one in the shanghai exchange. but if you look at the numbers,

you will find out that what's happening with the one is a mirror image of what's happening to oil prices in dubai, with the dollar price. so you are just mimicking the dollar, the un pricing is not acting on its own. so even when the chinese tried to create a different system, it was just a mirror image of the dollar pricing, the saudis, the saudi reale is back to the dollar. they have no interest in switching this system at this stage, simply because they still depend heavily on oil. and it's a joke basically to go and change it to the one because you shoot yourself in the foot on one side. and there you want itself fluctuate within a certain range relative to the dollar anyway, of course, of course. but what does this mean for ordinary americans? livelihoods? as macro economic dimensions to the calculations for interest rates in the u. s.

effect, ordinary americans and effect. the booming economies arguably of the global south, very differently. well, i'll give you some examples on that. yes, there are some this advantages to various sectors and various people. but there are many benefits too, because they and i states now can import things cheaply from around the world. and all precious can go up, but americans are not going to feel it like the other countries. if you talk about, for example, india or egypt today, or turkey with the declining currencies. because even if prices stay the same, just higher dollar will make or more expensive in turkey, india and egypt. for example, with americans, i'm not going to feel the difference. but so we'll see more infrastructure disasters many arguing the recent to train derailments and the state of infrastructure where you're speaking to me from is, is quite unlike anything we would see in the glittering towers of the middle east

or sanction. i think i think the trend to really the element is as an accident. ok. yes. we have many other incidents that are questionable in term of the number in terms of the fact that most of those were directed or they explored too. oh gosh to europe. it did not hop into the chinese had not pop into other countries. so yes, there are. many of them are questionable in this case. but what, what we don't know about, and this is really the major issue that people should be aware off that immediately after the war, all the data centers and russia that belongs to google and everyone else basically be shut down. that was a good move because the big issue for everyone right now are cyber attacks, not the actual attacks, not the fiscal attacks on those facilities. we've seen that if you recall would be

a colonial pipeline. that's why the cyber attack, and it's really, i mean, the ne, in the united states suffered greatly afforded for several days. and the problem is, there's no he way to what able to, we don't know whether these were just old aging railway stalk, of course is, is the point. i mean, that's correct. but the point is that the point i would like to make here is really them, the more serious issue are the cyber attacks and what the cyber attacks. our problem right now is we are trying to electrify everything. and when we electrify everything, and if you look at that, a porch that continuously, every single night, we have attacks on the grid system in the united states, and they fail every night cesar, the director fi, everything including transportation and then you have terrorist or other countries basically making cyber attacks. i, one of them is successful. the whole economy stops. yeah,

i mean i'm not sure about cyber attacks. i know you're not a luddite. are getting away from the interconnectedness of, of industry using the latest technology. i suppose the elephant in the room i'm speaking to you from dubai. host of cob. 28 is of course the environment you been most critical of what you see as absurd policies by western governments when it comes to the environment. i mean, just one aspect of it, i know you've, you've talked to carbon accounting, talked about it is the mother of all n runs. what about all these big multinationals? you shell earlier this year, talks in january to sell, norway's, will the norwegian oil and gas fields? how seriously are these companies taking? they read the fossil fuel izing of their industry and infrastructure they've built over decades. or are these big western multinationals in a degree of chaos in their boardrooms? having no real idea of what to do, given legislation changes,

whether it be in brussels, london, or washington every other day or every other week. when it comes to the environment and climate change, we always have low hanging fruit and we can act on this show. we can always do better regardless. the problem is that the governments are intervening and they want to do away way more than what we can do in a very short period of time without finding a replacement for the energy sources that they want to get read off. and you cannot go to a base load energy source like call or natural gas, or replace it with intermittent shores. you cannot do that, the chabad polish. so you end up with the crisis that we've seen before. they create, envision in and that, okay, for example, the main issue that we got to be worried about here, that yes companies or their board members, they'll say, look,

i want you to reduce your carbon footprint in to say the shared by 40 percent. so what companies do, they look at their assets and say, okay, here is that a finery to 70 or 70 year old refinery. and really most of my carbon footprint is in it. show i'm going to sell it and they go back to the board and say we reduced our car to print by 40 percent, but the world did not. did you wish it's full capital footprint that he find out? is there someone else who does not care as much about the climate change or the environment bought it? yeah, well it looks nice on the prospectus, just retina that time. i've got to ask about syria, when is joe biden going the oil off? present article gone off jerky, where the idea was it is a strategic assett. stop about money, a strategic asset. if you control it,

then you wicked, we can your enemy on one side. and then you can literally financial regina that you like. and that's how they are financing the kurds in that area initially of the us taxpayer paying them well. but the main reason, the main reason really is to prevent ardon from taking those oil fields. well, obviously, turkish authority say they have no intention that they want to go and take her. and as ology, thank you. thank you very much. that's it for the show will be back soon with a brand new episode. but until then you can keep in touch my role as social media. if it's not sensitive your country and had to i channel going on, the grantee on rumble. don't come to watch new and old episodes of going underground see very soon. ah ah ah ah,

what he's got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy confrontation, let it be an arms race is offensive. very dramatic development. only personally and getting to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very particular time time to sit down and talk november 22nd 2022 outraged orthodox christians confronted ukrainian security service offices, locking entrances and exits to keep the oldest monastery. they were looking for a russian spies among the monks. we mean deal of seeming a full the reason for the brutal crack down one church is parishioners said, song a song about ah,

it's wrong being reason enough to condemn any old adult christian attack in prison and even kill them. russia, what i mean, rush up, i need to figure out how many miles store you when you sort of throw off like i knew in your total thought as you used to stop a new phone, i used to miss dog with a k all since your dad as class as a rub between paramilitary forces and the national army. reports of gunfire and explosions are coming in from across the country. authority say it is an attempt at a coup with

the japanese. prime minister is evacuated after a loud explosion and white smoke. it's an area where the official was said to speak, a suspect has been detained, also ahead. the united states needs to stop encouraging war and start talking about peace is necessary for the.