on to the energy rich middle east, this week we ask, do oil sanctions work, will merely kill people in the countries doing the sanctioning? the biden administration continues to deny seymour hersh, his report that it blew up europe's pipelines, destabilizing global energy markets, and creating the largest man made single fossil fuel emission event. while sanctions, meanwhile on russia, routinely assumed by nato nation media to be an appropriate response to what has been happening in ukraine. one analyst who believes the war in europe signals a new order in global energy markets and politics is the current managing partner of the advisory firm, energy outlook, advisors award winning scholar on us, elijah former chief economist at n g p. energy capital management joins me now from texas. thank you so much and us for coming on before we get to that new media and global energy markets. i better just begin with asking you why you tweeted the e you is doomed. if pipelines are effectively like nord stream, start getting attacked or all the time they become the norm. after what happened

and what science claims was a effectively a bite and blink can sullivan. newland attack? sure. if you look around the world or what you see is and whether you see this and all days in columbia, you see it in nigeria than yemen. everyone who gets mad basically that, that, that pipelines and wants, it starts basically every girl that wants something they start to look at the rock, for example, to started attacking or facilities. and by who ever attacked that pipeline. basically, they just opened it can a form in this case where they are telling everyone, look, you can do that. you can literally do a copycat or whatever reason you want. and that was defeated at that time, that most of europe basically is under the reach of russia and fresh wants to retaliate. at the same time, there are other countries involved and they have interest to, you know,

we already have sheets of our countries expressing their interest in either piping the gosh to euro, or sending it a through l. n. g, or various methods run from the u. s. that would be, but that doesn't explain why. this seems to be a kind of radio silence in nature, nation media, even about the investigations. the german of the swedish and the danish investigation teams haven't gone public. they have said they've investigated. and they haven't said who did it. i mean the, i is are the energy trade is not interested in it, because clearly it had an impact on the energy markets, let alone the environment absolutely show up from my point of view. i don't have any private information at all. i know she more her specifically done a lot of work on this and would to speak from a pure theoretical point of view when we talk about energy security. and it is very clear that russia does not have an interest in this. and the u. s. specially the by

that administration has no interest either ship. i was really surprised when i read the report by shem on hersch. simply because it was very clear that the by lam installation, was trying to make every single effort to supply europe with enough energy for the winter. and they got lucky and they got lucky on 2 fronts. the got lucky because of the mild winter and they got lucky because of the no, no, or lack of hurricane out of damaging hurricane in the gulf of mexico, where all the l in g basically is made. and all the ships basically leave the gulf of mexico to europe. so they got lucky. but without that, europe would have been in big trouble. so the issue is we've seen the efforts by the administration to supply europe with energy to the extent that they ignored all the human rights issues in iran or the human rights issues in venezuela or the

sanctions on those 2 countries. and they literally give exemptions to certain companies to ship the oil from those countries to europe. so the idea here is very clear that they didn't bite an indiscretion, wants to secure energy supplies in europe. and it's not in its interest to bomb the gas pipelines before the winter. apologies to the sound that, that we will continue. people can watch our interview about the economist magazine and it's brutal history on our rumble channel. but even the economist said that the excess debts this wind to 185000. are you saying that just a not a major, major hurricane, but a reasonable aren't getting the gulf of mexico could have meant hundreds, thousands more dying off to the energy price instability caused by the noise stream pipeline exposure. i don't know about the numbers on the desk, but the whole idea here is that we have and this is one of the main results of the

one year of conflict, is that we, we've seen switch a complete switch independence from russian gas to american russian guys was pipe was way cheaper, was long term contract, while the u. s. l n g is way more expensive and way more dangerous. and essentially, when it comes to energy security, simply because it, as we've seen with the fire at the free port a, we end up with some problems, technical problems and will wind up with her kitchen, the gulf of mexico, where europe is going to get the gas from bouquet is some of its been replaced. i mean this that there are sanctions. no, this is, this is the problem. the issue here is this. all we did, and this is again, one of the major results of the conflict is we have changes in the direction of

trade in energy sources, merely oil and gas and coal. and it's a musical chairs period. that's where the sanctions did. so miss, you can share, we, we diverted the russian gas to asia, we send the american gas europe, we diverted the oil from europe to asia, and the middle east and africa. and then the middle east and africa stop sending or to europe. show yes, people who think will europe secured? well, it's secure through various measures. one of them is musical chairs. and if we have a massive growth in china and the chinese start competing for the available in g, we might see it or could prices again and candy europeans afford that. the other issue is that because the sanction is really never worked historically and they don't work. it's becoming shorts of a joke that you will ban yourself from that she brush an oil and yeah,

and then your to pho, china, takes that she boys refine it, then send you the gasoline a diesel at ward prices. this is just a joke. wait so, so in effect, and this is something you won't hear on that circle mainstream media in a donations that the people paying for putins war as they call it, are the european union countries that a sanctioning themselves at the are paying a general price if you look at the spending that those governments made to kind of mitigate the impact of the enter to crash. it is in billions of dollars. and if you look at it in term of living standards, i mean forgot shake people went back to, to would, and burning would and will remember all to talk about the showers and the hot showers and change the thermostat and all dashed out. the living standards basically went down, so it's not only the financial cost as the living sanders to that play,

they're all here. the other thing is the reputation of issue. people really? i mean, if you go through african, the middle east, i heard this so many times in re shockmounts. and we heard it during the cup $27.00 and sham shave in egypt. what they were peers would tell the africans, and the middle easterners where they tell them, oh, you cannot use fossil fuel. but they went back to cool. they told them you cannot give subsidies to your population to support gasoline and diesel prices. but we are going to do it anyway. so there was a damage to the reputation that i think it would take very long time to, to repair well on the actual supply dimension. what i, what does it mean and what you're saying for the reputations of reuters of bloomberg. i mean, are they weaponized nato news sources because they say the russian oil has been replaced by middle oil, middle to east oil as if opec is not an interconnected market and,

and actually they did the well doesn't need russia and this punishment is very successful. okay. well, it is your musical chair, so depends how you look at it. but we do have serious problems. since you mentioned the media, we do have a serious problem because since 2017, we've seen data deterioration, indoor and us. and what we see now as one of the mirror results of this conflict is that we have a very large fleet of tankers. that's going dark. we'll call them ghost ships. no one can track them, but they have oil and they are the russians basically, along with iranian and of israel is basically perfected the game. and what we have right now as a result of the conflict is the largest black market ever in the history of the oil industry in oil. what that means is we already have data deterioration since 2017 and now the data got to really,

really wars and waiters a p o bloomberg or others. what they do is they depend on technology to track ships . and if that technology does not overdose, show specifically are not turning on that technology. they have to be tracked then or no one can track them out. but few and writers bloomberg cannot track those ships. so what's going to happen is we have digital deterioration, and then those media outlets are reporting what only that technology enabling them to report, making the situation even worse. so the figures are all regulate, correct, because they are way less than what the actual market is. to give you an example, we've seen this where they are on. there were reporting that the iranians were exporting 400000 barrels a day. we know for a fact through various means and other means some of it is direct information that

there were for the exporting about 80900. so double to which of course, the american to say the americans always say ever increased vigilance wills will succeed. but i mean, in a sense, the great janet jaelyn, the treasury secretary of joe biden, isn't she recognizing that by saying price caps is another element in the alma, not just sanctions, this price caps on oil. one of the main lessons we learned from this experience here that sanctions never work. what they do is they cause a lot of pain to both sides of the conflict. but they don't work. they don't achieve the objectives booth and has not changed. his stand heated. that's number one, but if they cause a lot of pain, and if your objective is just to cause pain, yes, it is successful. but the pan is for both sides. not only that. as for the price cab, the price cab is literally a joke. and the news that been publishing that russian revenues decline because of

the price cap, does not make any sense. and i'll tell you why the price cab was implemented on the 5th and does not apply to all the tankers that left at that time. so all the tankers, etc, basically at that time, they are off that hook. and for what for the revenues to become taxable and the government received those revenues, it takes months, sometimes it takes 66 months, 7 months, sometimes 9 months. and all of a sudden 2 weeks, the money had not even be received yet. and janet yelena shang, or their revenues went down because of the price cut was to haven't received the money, talk for revenues even to decline. sure, you can see that it was pure pure propaganda trying to market the price up. dr. analogy, i'll stop you there. more from the wilderness, expert on energy markets in the managing partner in jail, took advisors after this break.

ah, ah, ah, ah . november 22nd 2020 to outraged orthodox christians confronted ukrainian security service offices, locking entrances and exits to keep the oldest monastery. they were looking for, alleged russian spies among the monks. we mean dealer seaman nurse or you know, i know for more reason to the brutal crack down one church is parishioners had song,

a song about russia. ah, it's wrong been reason enough to condemn any orthodox christian attack in prison and even kill them. russia, what i knew russia finance, a big grass when you miles store new in your store of pro a slight banging you and your total price. you used to start a samuel sample i used from his dog. this seems to me he just sat down with ah, welcome back to going underground. i'm still here with world renowned expert on energy markets and managing partner energy outlook advisors, georgia and us al hagey. if it is a game of musical chairs and not as antony,

blinkin and nato leaders, un salt and burg claim a brilliant strategy to destroy russia, perhaps before they try another strategy against china. who knows what about 3rd body sanctions? isn't that starting? do you understand your analysis and say without well, it was what was shuttle mark you sanctioned? let's dash sanctions and then they have the price de russian revenue, which is use the idea. well, the, the idea here is if they block, they will suffer significantly. and it is this saying in arabic that they call the game a biting fingers, that 2 people will challenge each other. everyone put his finger in the other person mouse and then bite on it and she who is going to scream 1st and it becomes the game of if they want to go for full sanchez, it becomes the gamble biting fingers who is going to scream 1st. and given the history ok, russia has

a vicious dictator and they literally can handle the pain more than democracy's remark. russia denies it as a dictator, he was elected, it's oddly a dictate, i think i think the national, even the u. s. government doesn't say that also does shut down percent on our side and bush on our side were elected to well, no, i think the american say that bruton was elected you also, or maybe partly coming off that view, that if you think that bruton wasn't elected, you aren't as excited about the shang i cooperation, organization and bricks partnerships in terms of di dollarization as some other analysts. does that mean? if the saudis, the u. e, continuing to pay their currencies to the dollar, they're not interested in changing. does that mean the americans will just continue raising interest rates to keep their dollar competitive as the world requires that

currency? i mean, it'll have an impact then on those currencies will. will janet yellen raise the rates despite the harm it may do to ordinary americans where you are in dallas, or are for the sake of time since we don't have enough time to discuss this in details. all of these issues are written in our newsletter. so for people who are interested, they can read the details of all the things that is no substitute for the dollar to the stitch. katie and oil is priced in u. s. dollar, and that is no substitute. yes, some people who say, well look in shanghai exchange, we have literally the oil is priced in year one, which is absolutely true that oil is priced in the wine, anyone in the shanghai exchange. but if you look at the numbers, you will find out that what's happening with you. one is a mirror image of what's happening to oil prices in dubai,

with the dollar price show you are just mimicking the dollar. the un pricing is not acting on its own. so even when the chinese tried to create a different system, it was just a mirror image of the dollar pricing, the saudis, the saudi reale is back to the dollar. they have no interest in switching the system at this stage, simply because they still depend heavily on oil. and it's a joke basically to go and change it to the one because you shoot yourself in the foot on one side. and there you want itself fluctuates within a certain range relative to the dollar. anyway, of course, of course. but what does this mean for ordinary americans livelihoods? as macro economic dimensions to the calculations for interest rates in the u. s. effect, ordinary americans and effects the booming economies, arguably of the global south, very differently. well,

i'll give you some examples on that. yes, there are some this advantages to various sectors and various people, but there are many benefits too, because they are state now can import things cheaply from around the world. and all precious can go up, but the americans are not going to feel it like the other countries. if you talk about, for example, indio egypt today, or turkey with the declining currencies. because even if prices stay the same, just higher dollar will make or more expensive in turkey, india and egypt. for example, what americans on i got to feel the difference. but so we'll see more infrastructure disasters many arguing the recent to retrain derailments and the state of infrastructure where you're speaking to me from is is quite unlike anything we would see in the glittering towers of the middle east or sanction. i think, i think the train really derailment as as an accident.

yes. we have many other incidents that are questionable in term of the number in terms of the fact that most of those where directed or they explore to gosh to europe. it did not hop into the chinese is not pop into other countries. so yes, there are. many of them are questionable in this case. but what we don't know about, and this is really the major issue that people should be aware off that immediately after the war, all the data centers in russia that belonged to google and everyone else basically be shut down. that was a good move because the big issue for everyone right now are cyber attacks, not the actual attacks, not the physical attacks on those facilities. we've seen that if you recall would be a colonial pipeline. it's one of the cyber attack, and it's really, i mean,

the ne, in the united states suffered great the for, for several days. and the problem is there's no way they were able to, and we don't know whether these were just old aging railway stock. of course is, is the point, i mean, i, somebody, but the point is the point i would like to make here is really them the more serious issue out of the cyber attacks and with the cyber attacks. our problem right now is we are trying to electrify everything. and when we electrify everything, and if you look at the report that continuously, every single night, we have attacks on the grid system in the united states, and they fail every night cesar, the director fi, everything including transportation and then you have to rest or other countries basically making cyber attacks. i, one of them is successful. the whole economy stops. yeah, i mean i'm not sure about cyber attacks. i know you're not a luddite. are getting away from the interconnectedness of, of industry using the latest technology. i suppose the elephant in the room,

i speaking to you from dubai. host of cobb 28 is of course the environment you been most critical of what you see as absurd policies by western governments. when a guy, oh, i mean, just one aspect of it. i know you've, you've talked to carbon accounting, talked about it is the mother of all n runs. what about all these big multinationals? you shall, earlier this year, talks in january to sell norway's. will the norwegian oil and gas fields? how seriously are these companies taking? they read the fossil fuel izing of their industry and infrastructure they've built over decades. or are these big western multinationals in a degree of chaos in their boardrooms? having no real idea of what to do, given legislation changes, whether it be in brussels, london, or washington every other day or every other week. when it comes to the environment

and climate change, we always have low hanging fruit and we can act on this show. we can always do better regardless. the problem is that the governments are intervening and they want to do away way more than what we can do in a very short period of time. without it finding a replacement for the energy sources that they want to get read off. and you cannot go to a base load energy source like coal, or natural gas, or replace it with intermittent source. you cannot do that, the sure bad polish. so you end up with the crisis that we've seen before, they couldn't envision in and that you ok, for example, the man issue that we got to be worried about here. that yes, companies or their board members, they'll say look, i want you to reduce your carbon foot brantley said the sheer by 40 percent. so what companies do, they look at their assets and say ok here is a finer each,

a 70 or 70 year old refinery. and really most of my carbon footprint is in it. show i'm going to sell it and they go back to the board and show we reduced our car plant by 40 percent, but the world did not reduce it's foot capital footprint that he find out. is there someone else who does not care as much about the climate change or the environment bought it? yeah, well it looks nice on the prospectus, just written it out at the time. i've got to us about syria. when is joe biden gonna stop stealing? stealing the oil of syria as it has been over the past few years. and i really don't, i don't look at it as stating that the student regime is saying, basically, i think we're following this issue. it was pretty clear that the moment as i started on a turkey wanted to get this oil,

the american step that showed the main issue was to prevent, are gone from taking those all ash it's, i think that's what the test and then they have the experience with a post saddam in iraq, where the idea was it is a strategic assets. it's not about money, a strategic asset. if you control it then you, we can, we can your enemy on one side. and then you can literally financial regime that you like. and that's how they are financing the kurds in that area initially of the us taxpayer paying them well. but the main reason, the main reason really is to prevent or go on from taking those oil fields. well, obviously a tech issue, authority say they have no intention that they want to go and take those oil fields . doctor and ask ology, thank you. thank you very much. that's it for the show will be back soon with a brand new episode, but until then you can keep in touch, why will i social media if it's not sensitive in your country and had to channel

going underground tv on rumble? don't come to watch new and old episodes of going underground he very soon with ah, a wrong one. i just don't with to see how he comes to an engagement with when so many find themselves well to part, we choose to look for common ground. ah

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