me ok, hello, i'm manila chan you are tuned into modus operandi. so finland has join nato, expanding the military blocks some 800 miles along russia, borders fighting article 10 of the groups founding treaty of an open door policy. this marks the 11th time since the fall of the soviet union back in 1992 that the block created to contain it has grown. so who is the real agitator here? we'll discuss it with a geopolitical expert next. all right, let's get into that ammo. the me, it's twitter official. nato has announced the accession of finland into the so called defensive alliance, leaving behind their friend sweden, who initially was set to join in a 2 for one special. for nearly 75 years,

finland had an image of neutrality following the f. c. m a treaty of 948. that would be of course, friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance. treaty signed between them and then the soviet union that was extended 3 times. the fins and russians signed a new cooperation agreement after the 1992, followed the soviet union. so for the better part of the 20th century, the russo finish relationship was peaceful. this despite the fins back tracking on a deal made during the so called winter war of 939 to 40 after finland. in fact help the nazis from 1941 to 1900. 44. by allowing hitler's troops to transit through finland. and of course, some fins also took up arms against the soviets side by side with the nazis. by 944,

the soviets beat back the finished nazis. and an armistice was struck between the neighbors. so since 948, the f c m a treaty, there has been no political or physical fighting between the 2. fast forward now to 2023, despite know, hospitality. for nearly a century. russia's nordic neighbor suddenly felt threatened and joined nato. so here we are. joining us to discuss and perhaps explain all of this is professor of political science at the university of oslo in norway g o political analyst and author, his latest book is called, russo phobia, propaganda and international. well, i think that obviously a lot of things that changed was russia in nation of ukraine, which spoke many and again, the media of course, was also consumed by this. so it was huge. and foss pushed towards joining

nato. and the, because traditionally similar has not had the political support for joining nato among the public. but again, because of the war and the sentiment changed quickly, and, and i would argue the key problem was that the, instead of sparking a reason a reasonable debate, given that, you know, the neighboring country went to war. and i think there was more emotions taking over because i haven't seen any sensible debate. they're about to what extent joining nato would actually help their security. and again, it's not just the that sometimes insecurity less is more. in other words, if you bring in the american weapon systems, for example, or, or become part of this huge military lines. now 31 states, an empire russian military life is gonna cause our reaction from russia and will this then undermine your security enough so. so there wasn't really any debate to

just that we fail greater threat, not from russia. it's less to nato. and very little discussion around the pros and cons in terms of their own security. and again, i think what's been missing is sir oldest focused. now that, you know there's war in europe with russia and, but no one really has thought much about peace. in other words, how can we figure out how we're all going to live on the same continent instead, it's just less ourselves, but send weapons. let's join nato and last that would also say this also had to, i think there was a deliberate effort of going into the say quickly, again, the one in finland are suggesting that cross might attack them. but because of the huge security concerns now in europe and, and the sentiments had changed. and there was, i think there was an interest in the government to move while the public was on their side. is no secret that all from the political leaders,

military leaders would like to be in nato and, you know, but still didn't get the public wisdom. so i think there's an interest there to get inside nato before the war is over. so they don't risk loosing the publics. so just so we're clear, there was no imminent threat to them by russia. and i should note normally the nato accession process, historically it takes years. so why did this one happen so quickly? well, of, well, they're considered to be a lot of the a session previously was with countries which used to be part of their worth of packed or actually soviet republic, former republics of the soviet union. so they have been seen as needing more work. however, it is seen linda, sweet and i've been cooperating with natal for so long that a lot of the interoperability has been already aligned so it was easier,

but also there was a huge interest to this country, joy and even, you know, for long, for a long time now so and, but of course, you know, there was an opportunity going on this war and now it's a good chance to expand the military lines during conflicts in human nature, people seek internal and solidarity in order to face off an external threat. so it is a nice time to call for expanding the military, expanding military alliances. so i guess everyone was in the rush to get this done quickly before alone, before the war might come down or piece might emerge so. so this may be a chicken or egg question, but i'm going to ask it anyway. is it russian aggression or posturing of some sort on the global stage that causes these nations to want to join nato?

or is it the expansion of nato some nearly 20 times now? 11, just since the fall of the soviet union, technically collapsing in 1991. that is provocative, thus creating, you know, this self fulfilling prophecy if you, well, well, i guess as many reasons why states who want to join nato, one of them is that the united states pays for a lot of the security. so it's as seen as be giving our cloud security guarantees the while paying little so it's usually consider a bit of a pre call in which do not have states provide space for the security. meanwhile, leer, p and surrender, or some other political independence. so we follow america leadership and in return, america pays for our security. but i would say that's whether not it's russian aggression or well, what does it cost us this? i think, and it i'm on the list becomes a self fulfilling prophecy which slice a good expression. because nato, after the cold war,

when it started expanding. russia was there a week at this time, so it was considered by many even james make your point to the south. madeline albright the both use the word insurance guarantee because in case they would have counseling with ross in the future, at least you have would have an old, powerful nato arm to the teeth next to russia so they wouldn't be there to do anything. and then, of course, if i miss, if you start to expand the military block and pushing the military infrastructure close, close to the border and russia will have a reaction. this was the george kenneth's argument, actually in 1998. he was interviewed in new york times, and he actually warned that to do that. and now that nato expands, at some point, russia will react negatively. mac integrate power will do a few put military along its borders. much like us would do if, you know, russia places military mexico anyways. see his arguments was at some point russia

will react negatively. and when this happens, and this is to, will paraphrase them or cause him was, at this point, the nato expand expansionist will exit. well, the proponents are made to expansionism, would then argue that this is just the way russia aggressive, the thing that we expand the nato. so it's, it's an interesting logic and this is why also we had this weird relationship with russia ever since. we began expanding, made on one hand, it's a deterrent against russia. on the same time, we're trying to assure russia, it's not against you. and, and it has to really matter what russia do, really, because if nader expanse and russia doesn't object well, then it's another threats. and, you know, there's no problems expire to expand. but if nato, sorry, russia would object. well, that's very aggressive thing to do. if it starts to resist or find back, and now we have to expand that to contain russia. so it's, it's a difficult procession. we kind of put the russians and they cos we,

we essentially said that nato is just about democracy. and anyone who would oppose expanding it would therefore be anti democratic would be anti civilizational. so essentially told the russians, we gave them a dilemma. we're going to expand this block up there. border either sit still under nothing, or we will campaign you. so and yes, so, so, so feeling prophecy, i think this is right for us, as we say in the states professor, damned if you do and damned if you don't are coming up next. nukes nord stream, the you when will talk to liberation and investigations. when we return with professor glen decent, sit tight, the ammo will be right back. i the

ah, during the 2nd well, when nazi occupied, poland, virginia was a farming region. today is part of ukraine. between 19431945 members of the ukrainian insurgent army led by stepan bandera. nasa could thousands of poles in virginia in a diabolical ethnic cleansing process. the mergers were particularly horrific, and brutal villages were burned and property looted. the valinda massa is without doubt one of the bloodiest episodes in polish ukrainian history. my al ukrainian politician, still reluctant to talk about these events, how to modern day ukraine and poland view this tragedy of the past. and why does the memory of albania still divide people? ah

ah ah, welcome back to the m o i manila chant. so with finland, expanding, the nato footprint around russia, no doubt, nato weapons while proliferate, another 800 miles. meanwhile, russia is making moves of its own with tactical nukes, moving into belarus. professor glen deezen, author of the book rousseau, phobia propaganda, and international politics is back with us. so professor,

recently vladimir putin made a deal with neighboring bella, ruth, to build a storage facility for rushes, tactical nukes, and exchange for modernizing bella bruce's warplanes, expected completion for the site will be this summer. actually, this will be near the bellow russian western border. the exact location is classified latvia, lithuania and poland are very upset by this barrel, nato countries. but could this latest push to bring in finland and maybe someday sweden into the block. be the impetus as to why russian tactical nukes are moving into bell roof. well, it could be, i mean, there was an interview with the former secretary general nato. listen, and he was arguing in the future for conflict. the rest conflict, nato with russia, had the benefit of having sweden and finland into matters who could put a full blockade on on saint petersburg and denied them complete access into the

baltic sea. so obviously, this is the problem we imagine if it was the other way around this, china, russia was mounting. their military in mexico or canada, united states would, would react them at the end of the day. it wouldn't benefits in one security. and this is the case here as well. so obviously, i think that the sim linda could have something to do with this on this of the war . and ukraine has something to do with it. and, but overall, i think that's for the russian to stay. and then decided that the, all the so called rules space international order where this one set the rules for the united states and another set of rules for russia, that it would be no longer acceptable. let's keep in mind that the non per proliferation treaty, that main treaty to address the proliferation of nuclear weapons is very specific. the, to articles make it clear, a nuclear weapon states are not allowed to place nuclear weapons into non nuclear weapons states. but as we know in europe, do not

a states us place this nuclear weapons in belgium, germany netherlands is only a turkey. so, so we're nato, we're in violation of this most united states, and it's 5 european countries for, for hosting missiles as well. so, so this is problematic, rush, us descent is minute time, so we're like, you know, maybe should abide by the st is all non proliferation. and now we see russia effectively placing its, its own nuclear weapon system in mellows and why again, it can be many aspect anything from the war to finland, to the nato's reluctance to live by the end nonproliferation treaty. but it could also be the reason why i'm a little more open to this now, is because this will entail some surrender of sovereignty. at some level, at least, it's because the details of fairness,

nato could have some aggression against the notice, especially colon could the attack. this is the fear because no one would attack russia directly. this would be relieved to nuclear war, but the packing bellicose might be a natural middle step and this collision letter. so it is commit. but again, i'm speculating. the one in moscow is telling me what the main motivation is. of course. now let's not forget under us president donald trump, he withdrew the us from the i n f treaty as well. so that causes quite a danger for the rest of the world. switching gears here, professor, let's talk a little bit about the recent un vote on nord stream. the russian delegation spearheaded a vote at the united nations to conduct a joint investigation into who was responsible for destroying this multi 1000000000,

multi, multi $1000000000.00, multi national project. only 3 votes in favor, russia, china, and brazil, all the other 12 security council members, abstained, rushes un ambassador by ceiling. a ben via said this ahead of the of the vote. he said, quote, without an objective and transparent international investigation. the truth will not be uncovered as to what happened. so the draft resolution seemed necessary. i would say, given that russia was barred from conducting their own investigation, into the blast and their own pipeline. how do you read this vote and what happened there at the u. n. s c? well, it's not many ways to read it. really. it's the west does not want an independent investigation into the tackle. nordstrom, it's i know that anthony lincoln came out and said, well, the only reason why russia is doing this is because it's because they want to try

to coordinate to the united states to make it look guilty about that. you don't have an evidence. but again, this is the whole point. you have to have the investigation to have evidence, and i think it's quite extraordinary that the, not just us, but all it's the, are the partners as well. i do not really want to know how many independent instigation into this. i think it's about the referred to us stuck on the syndrome, but it is, it is quite strange. again, i don't think because this is so politicized. someone attacked the main, some of the key european energy infrastructure, a causing economic devastation to europe, but also an environmental disaster. and. and again, even the united states now said that the, it stop the russians are behind this. they will try to throw the ukrainians on the bus. but anyways, if someone has done this, is shirley, this is important enough to, to investigate and the, and the, well, i would agree,

i don't think any names, any investigation now, either by the natal side or by the russian side would be credible. you need to have in dependence investigation and keep in mind that the early on sweden did an investigation that they didn't want to share the results then with denmark and germany, which are their nato allies and decide that national security. so something obviously has happened here because someone attacked this pipelines and it's a good chance that this is natal country, packing and other nato countries. and so if you would think an investigation would be of interest. but i think that to control now is important. we have to keep natal solidarity, which means we cannot know who would, who did this just to cause an article by washington post only a few days ago. it said that the come,

it said the will something like leaders slow to see no benefits from digging too deeply and finding an uncomfortable answer. so this is the, this or this is the sentiment now in nato. we, i think we know who did this and, but we do not want to have it confirmed because then this will be very uncomfortable. it would so divisions within the military lines. and we can't have divisions. now we have to or you know, march in the same tune and stand together against russia. according to sy hersh his article about how northridge was destroyed, this would have required approval, or at least acceptance or understanding by denmark. given that the blast site was just off the coast of foreign home island, which is danish territory, not to mention according to hers reporting, the bombs were planted during the nato exercises called bolt ox. denmark is a nato member. up until this point, what was denmark's relationship with russia,

and now that denmark has rejected russia's request to conduct their own investigation. where does that put their future relations? well, the trust is completely gone, obviously. now that goes both ways, obviously they then marcus lost a lot of trust in russia, but also russia has lost all trust now in, in denmark because again, some on the attack, the energy infrastructure built by the russians. and as you said before, i think everyone knows who stunned it now and that they are now seeing to effectively obstruct an investigation in this kind of thing. so usually make you sound like a conspiracy if there is. but there are no other explanations. at this point anymore. so so i think here, this is just going to continue to damage the relationship between the mark and rush, obviously. but also, i think over over a long term,

i think this will also cause some divisions within, within the ranks of nato. because as i mentioned before at the moment, and we don't want to find out who actually attacked us because we're afraid that this could to create divisions by this only because we need to have sol dorothy now because we're in the fact the war against, with russia now, once this war comes to an end, there's more chance that we're going to start looking around at the, you know, who, who attacked us because for, for germany, this is quite the devastating. they are the leading economy in europe. they're the locomotive driving your forward, and a lot of their industries are quite energy intensive, and all of these industries and faltering and again this industry is can't be competitive anymore. and that's what expensive energy has to buy from the united states. so. so the main driving force of the airplane economy has now gone off the rails and, and the is taking rest of europe with it. so once,

once everything starts going wrong with the economy and when the war is over, i think we're going to start to look among each other for him to blame. so at least that's my prediction. russia, china, brazil, the yes boats at the u. n. s. c, all members of bricks. is there any coincidence there? no, no, not really. they are well, they're aligning their economies more and more, and also having more security or military cooperation. and at the same time, we see that the bricks country are harmonizing their, their, their policy, political statements to a greater degree. so again, their biggest countries are also members of the shanghai corporation organizations, not brazil, of course. and and, but it shouldn't be a surprise, but i'm more, i'm more surprised to be honest about the, the, the soul dorothy who, who with, with, with, in the west that more because i think for countries on the outside it's not just

the bricks contracting the rest of the world's looking at this and thinking, well, what other explanations could there be? keep in mind that the united states, they used to sanction the european allies, participated in building the nor stream project. and you had their reports like from round corporation, which is us think bank you know, ordered in 2019 by the us army. and one of the steps to weakening russia was the 1st step was to stop the north stream to you had the leading us politicians from my compare from cotton, the 10th cruise. all of them saying even j solomon though, saying we have to stop nordstrom to initials before us, and then we had joe biden said, we're going to bring it to an end victoria newland before before and after the pac saying. and this was a good thing that this was blown up in. so it's just been over and over again. will we will see that that will do not stay on the threatening to destroy it. and

then of course, after they destroy this, we have people like me, blink him in no uncertain term, arguing that the destruction, nor stream of a tremendous opportunity. so, and in europe, we're not allowed to say that the u. s. will benefit from its destruction even as you know, the hint they're celebrating a washing we, we can't even say because this will need this information. instead, we're claiming, you know, this is the russian playbook. and, and this is, this is a situation where, so i think when the rest of the world looks at this, what, well, what other conclusion can they reach? and again i, i think, i think in the unity now within, within the rich countries it's quite, it's quite the natural not only because they're aligning the policies, but also if you're standing on the outside looking in, i'm not sure how else you could, you could interpret this indeed,

i would just add one last thing to some extent the united states have already admitted to some extent that has been lying. because after seymour hersh published his story in which he claimed united states with the support of norway attack, the pipeline in the united states responded by. well, 1st of all, thing that there was probably a crane in group behind it, which doesn't make any sense at all. but also washington said that his intelligence community knew that it was russia, but they wanted to protect the ukrainians. so this is quite fascinating because now washington, admitting that he was lying, when he was saying there was probably russia pointing towards russia and even risking war with russia. so this is like this public and the wide world. so i'm not, i'm not surprised by the fact that the bricks countries are coming together because, and that simply isn't the handheld explanation anymore than the united states attacks to your team. and there's infrastructure. so i see this alignment being

quite natural. professor glen deason at the university of oslo in norway. thank you so much for sharing your expertise with us. that is going to do it for this episode of modus operandi the show that dig deep into foreign policy and current affairs. i'm your host vanilla chan. thank you so much for tuning in. we'll see you again next time to figure out the ammo. ah right now i've been good a little bit from number. oh no, i for

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