[000:00:00;00] ah, ah ah. hello and welcome to cross stock, were all things considered on peter lavelle since you started the military operation in ukraine? we were told the west is in lock step unity. in this case, unity means following orders without question from washington. well that unity has begun to unravel. new europe an old europe are clearly not marching in sink. ah, discuss these issues and more. i'm joined by my guess, george samuel leon, budapest. he's

a podcast or at the goggle which can be found on youtube and locals. and in st. petersburg, we crossed to alexander at 10 state institute of technology, europe, which was pulling ah, what was needed was conductor of all of the ukraine. and in the united states now has its allies, the end of poland, the baltics. and again, some of the former communist states who want this to escalate. they want to full scale war. i mean, more of your school pretty much says this is, this is what civilizational struggle against russia. so now you've got this bunch of people as, as you said, this is over a dangerous and you know, somebody like mark wrong, we still have certain math of common sense and has ingle. this makes absolutely yours is ludicrous. what was going on here. this is absolutely not in our interest . he talks about strategic autonomy and the bowls and the rest, they know strategic autonomy. what will get to the fact ok? alexander in st. petersburg is really quite interesting is because since the end of

the cold war, the number of nato members is doubled. ok, now i guess, you know, you the numerically, that we think, well, it's stronger because it's bigger. but i would say reverse is actually weaker because you brought in these eastern players that don't actually bring much to the table when it comes to security. certainly not military. i mean, we have the baltic republics telling germans and italian dinner, but you said look percent more but you know, they, they don't because they don't have it here. but if there is one part that is strengthened all through this, and it's washington, this united states is the come a much stronger power in there too because it can divide and conquer own center. well, i think the smaller states, particularly in the former communist areas of eastern europe, what they think they can do is by getting into this organization, into nato and into e u structures. they think that they'll be able to then leverage their influence

and pull these organizations towards their goals. which if it's a very, it's kind of strange in particular, we with poland. so colon here wants to be confrontational with russia. confrontational with bella. ruth, and they apparently have designs on rebuilding their last empire from previous centuries, and they're very interested in whether they'll be able to regain territories, particularly love off. now about ukraine is embroiled in this war, and they apparently are looking for ways to send peacekeepers into eastern ukraine, so called peacekeepers. so that would strengthen their do. we don't need to do that . they would only do that if they had one content supporting them. that's with re, right, right. so they think they might be able to get washington to agree with this if they're just going to be agreeable enough if they just stroke the egos of the american administration enough and sign off on all of their programs and their

designs in eastern europe. so whether that's going to work, i'm not sure it doesn't seem like a very good plan. and it also doesn't seem like a very good plan given that all and is attempting to maintain a very traditional conservative culture. and their ruling party is also very traditional and conservative, but that doesn't go along very well with sort of ultra liberal, liberal ideology coming out of washington coming out of brussels. that they're trying to force down on these traditional societies. so how they can get the empire and military aspects out of nato and the e. u. without getting the social aspects of extreme liberalism. i'm not sure what their plan is for george. and i'm used about this quite a bit because if you look at the hierarchy of institutions, you look at the, you and you look at nato, nato trumps everything. ok, so it least temporary dispensation. ok, because the polls i, you know, the poland in about to republics because they have american backing. they can punch

above their weight and they know it. ok. and, and they're taking advantage of here. and of course they put because they can punch about their weight. they can kind of, they can kind of shame old europe, which of course crowns the crowns of this world. don't take lightly to that, but there may not be much he can do about it either george. yes, exactly right. it is very interesting because of course, the woke biden administration absolutely, to test the social policies of the government of poland, but is prepared to overlook it. vital has now made to state visits to poland. ha, there's only been there 2 years. he's already made to state visit, delivered to white belligerent addresses on the war and ukraine in poland. and poland is welcomed all the time in the white house bowl and gets invited to the democracy summit. hungary doesn't matter. so what's the difference between the 2

states? hunger is as conservative as a polish, a government, but hungry is not taking the same line on ukraine or so therefore hunger is completely out of favor. but again, and again, the interesting thing with the, the baltic states that they are in good order. well, you know, hungary gets constantly attacked for, it's a unenlightened attitude towards what was sexual and transgender issue. but the resistance on the question of the gay marriage, i mean, hungary recognizes of gay civil unions. the baltic states don't know even if they don't have k. so units that nonetheless, the baltic states are always in favor with shelton, bird. we're still on the line and in washington, so nato trumped all. yeah. i'm glad you brought brought up the poems, historical grievances when it comes to los territory. you know, when you look at the history, the last 2 century as of eastern europe,

everybody's borders have been changed a lot. okay. and they're not, they don't stand out there. but i mean this, this, this, what's a great, say, a trip wire for europe, because as a member of nato in good standing, it's machinations, could just prove disastrous for everyone. and it seems, you know, when, when the polls are given such a welcome in washington, it seems to be giving them an indication that they have a lot more leeway than we'd like to think. what are your thoughts on that? because that again, this would be laughable, but were so very dangerous to point out to everybody. i lived in poland for 10 years. okay. i understand that the extreme is people can go, let's put it that way better. well, i am not quite convinced that poland is going to be able to get away with maintaining its traditionalism inside of nato. i think that perhaps they are being tolerated in this, but it's temporary in the same way that the global is tolerated. china,

until it became clear in the last few years to them that you know, the chinese are not going along with the global list plan. they're not integrating into this liberal world order. and i think poland, it's expected that they will at some point submit to this, maybe, maybe as you know, put on the back conflict in ukraine, but i don't use new states are probably given a functioning or at least, you know, get them label is being funded. by for an actors which means working for the u. s. government effectively. and that wasn't tolerated. well if you had that kind of action going on in poland, then there would be a stronger reaction against it from washington d. c. but, you know, i think they're slowly going to have to acquiesce to this. so all i have to make a choice, do they want their, they want to pursue their imperial ambitions? or do they want to keep their traditional society? i don't think they're going to get away with both showing your thoughts on that because hungry. it doesn't have. well, it doesn't. i wouldn't say it has territorial ambitions,

but it certainly is concerned about the whole gary and minority that is badly treated in, in ukraine. but you know, we and poland has these long claims and all of that. so the dispensation only works so far as you further the interests of empire. after that, we don't count on any kind of further support. i think. so i do think that what's key here is your position on the american empire. i mean, george is an interesting case because yes, the americans came down like a ton of bricks and g o low. but what have triggered it was a trigger that was the georgia had refused to go along with the sanctions regime. they were expecting georgia to fully support the whole nathan, it runs 2nd. exactly, because our role georgia and ukraine were offered nato membership on the same day in 2008 and suddenly a was georgia which not only was not going along with sanctions, was,

was each and even suggesting that he was going to lift the ban on air travel with russia, this was really insult to injury so that that's really was was key and all of the so i think bowman can get away with it. it's socially retrograde of views, as long as it's sufficiently anti russia. and i don't see that changing. i mean it, this is something in owen's dna. when you're, you know, what's going to happen is that, you know, when everything is said and done, they're still going to be anti russian in the you, it's still not going to accept their political order. so they're on a losing and no matter how you could lose lose, there's no win win here. when you take this position here though, you can get in the headlines and like, and again, you know, they want to be at the adult table. they want to be one of the power break brokers . they only the power broker if the west allows them. and that's where we stand right now. gentlemen, i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break,

we'll can or discussion on some real new stay with our tea. ah ah. i think in the south there is a much clearer understanding of the causes meeting up to this crisis. even though the best in position is that it is an unprovoked i think the understand that this is fond of the us led to question strategy for the containment of rational on the pathway to the containment of china. the name it was a separate put bombing in. so you know this it will vehicle car yet no blessed sauce that we should be fishing. so do you know the pin?

i'm not sure let us but that's our gross nest. i was on the left in the one on the desktop or joseph michelle. it is launching on the bill. it says that it will be almost a month. you may still want to continue listening to what you know. so it's just purely, can you me see it is supposed to get us dollars on. i bought it, which i put in a sickly and a little pause. even lynch is going out of the agenda that says, image i was, i was, i had for the saw say on the reason i ask you is, i'm sure political. some on i said a lot to us on the saw,

the english american lost so much, you know, much missing a saw to see last bill is a you know, the run that up to you after they were not on the palmer. she's planning on a window for a welcome back to cross stock. were all things are considered on peter bell? this is the home addition to remind you. we're discussing some real news. ah ok. let's go back down center st. petersburg, a strategic autonomy that was already brought up in this program here, and it's something that mc chrome not only talked about in last week, but he's actually made reference to it in using the same words or the same concept

over the last few years. it's not relatively new though, the neocons in washington in london in brussels. they take umbrage to this. and i think of from a lot of common sense people, certainly realist thinkers, simply saying that is not really a big deal. it's not an epiphany. the problem is, is that why is he saying it now? because isn't he a day late in a buck short? i mean, hasn't france, germany, italy, or the other great power in europe. and they've just really had to make their peace with the u. s. being dependent on american energy of their trade and trade on relationships that they have. i mean, countries like france have very limited options right now and it's actually humiliating to talk about autonomy when you've already given it up. alexander, i would suggest that actually mac cron isn't late. he is early because i think he is seeing what's happening in china with them. rising to being an important world

player in a way that we haven't seen before in political situations like making peace between saudi arabia and you're on. so i think he's starting to read the tea leaves and he sees that the influence of washington is declining. the influence of beijing is increasing. so the rhetoric in itself, it's just rhetoric, like you said, there's not a whole lot that they can do. frances, too deeply footing for that kind of thing. he's trying to not alienate china because he sees that they're going to be very important over the next several decades. so near term it doesn't really mean anything. well, i mean it. what's interesting here, george, is that what i, what alexander explained it very, a very interesting thing. but the, the more that china becomes an independent actor on the world stage, the more the u. s. for crowds and swarms. it's so called allies. i mean, it's interesting is it, that the,

when china is going around the world around saudi arabia and the events and syria going on, you know, the, the u. s. squeezes it's allies even more to stay in line is this, is it, it's creating this new cold war and a new iron curtain. and it's, you know, it's liberal democracies are shutting everybody else and trying to and the was just trying to concentrate its control over its allies, nor string to go ahead. no that that's exactly right because so it's very striking that more of yet scape and honestly in a bad book, both within days of the hours of micro interview declared that taiwan is of absolutely fundamental vital, the existential interest to us. europeans, then other words, we clearly say this is lost, you know? absolutely. you know, there, there's no daylight at all between our position and that of the united states. and one, my call was to this thing is that we are going to get dragged into this will with i

one because, you know, the, the arc of the, of this conflict with china is exactly the same as the arc of the conflict with russia. and we kind of got dragged along with this. we have this alliance, we can't get ourselves out of. it was so entangled in this alliance that once america gets into this, a conflict in the taiwan straits. we will inevitably be a part of it. and, you know, he, he suggests that it may be, you know, is going to be very difficult for us to get out of it. and it, and it is obviously very difficult, precisely because of poland and the rest of them, including that germany with angelina. but they want to be in a conflict, and it is getting worse. i mean that this, this conflict in the taiwan straits has got worse. not because of anything china has done, but it's all been done by the united states. it's a deliberate policy of provocation. and macro does see it, we're getting dragged into this. well, it's, it's really interesting here is that i am, i surmise, alexander,

that mc crown is been reflecting upon the fact how did friends good soap into this mess with ukraine of no strategic interest whatsoever to the, to nato, to the e. u. certainly not. france. ok, and he sees that, you know what, the quagmire that nato was created for you, crane, they're going to do the same thing with taiwan. so he's kind of saying, you know, we, we see where this can go. but what's interesting to me is that, you know, what are the strategic interests of francis reaching interest of, you know, of the b e u. it's not really about that. it's about a lead capture. it's about lean, a better box. ok? it's about the polish prime minute, it's their interest in their, in their picking order in the m higher. that's when it's all about. i mean, when you say it's really quite bewildering, you have the, the german foreign minister, basically a spitting in the face of the french president. what?

because her elite interests are at stake. not necessarily ideological. alexander. oh, we do know that all of these people, they socialize with each other at these conferences. they fly around on each other's jazz. there old great friends. they do unethical things during their elections in order to be able to continue attending these clubs. if they're so unfortunate as to actually lose an election, then they just get hired by various agencies or get appointed to some office so they can continue hanging out with their friends. so i think your point is right spot on. they're trying to keep up appearances among all of their buddies in this system. and it's kind of, it's just like any large organization that has an overbearing culture that it forces down on people. people are going to go along with this culture no matter what they may have thought about it before. money might influence their thinking on the matter. so yeah, i think that they're trying to keep that going. i don't think that france is really

going to be able to do much with though, regardless of what they start to notice. macros might be kind of unnerved by the really sort of crazy things that the americans are starting to say. part of it may be that parts of the as a lead, particularly from washington d. c. they're just coming off as not being competent at all. so you have these mum blurs like lloyd austin, who somehow didn't know about these leaks of their secret plans for weeks. you have anthony blink and whose every 2nd word he says is, and you have a vice president who has never put to sensical words together. and you have a president who is suffering from dementia. so these, these folks are not, they're not sending their best. and i think that some people just on a basic human level in europe are starting to lose patience with these guys. yeah, well, if it goes back to the kind of the vin, you know, saying, you know, the inter agency consensus, george,

because that's really what it's about. and that's what's really scary about all of this is, and we can have all these, you know, that we can have. so, you know, sergeant schultz in abilene about about can list trust, you know, they're, they're all entertaining because they're so incompetent. ok. but the inter agency consensus move on. yes, i think that's right. i mean, it's up we can easily get distracted by the all of the weaknesses and the foibles of leaders. but there, underneath it, there is, you know, we're looking for want of a better word, a deep state that is, does move relentlessly. and clearly has this agenda, which is to provoke a conflict. i mean, they are desperate to provoke this conflict with russia. and then with china, i think my microns diagnosis is right. there will be a conflict with china. i mean, there's a question, i mean, just as a conflict with russia, we're heading towards

a conflict with china because the united states wants it and there's nothing you can do to stop it just as then, you know, with the people like victoria newland, the, the permanent fixture in washington english is, goes $11.00 administration to another. and what is she doing in all of these administrations? the same thing is always provoking conflict. advancing american interest. what she sees as american interest, by provoking prices to which then america is always the answer and that's how they will move towards china. so, you know, there may well be voices within europe. that will say that we agree with macro, but there's really very little they can do, but there is a trans atlantic elite you know, the, the, the military in europe is thoroughly integrated into nature. the in the military industries in europe, always a kind of non existence. i come across a year and we really need to get our military. the stays off the ground and then poland says, yeah, but we're not buying anything from europe. we're buying exclusively from the united

states and it's going to be out as the thing we don't want to buy any of these thinking your friendship planes. we want to buy our planes from washington. so it's unfortunate that you know, you can just simply say, yeah, this is, this is really stupid or bon says the same thing, but the transit times a gravy train is just the inexorable. yeah, the, that's exactly what it is. and alexander what's, what's most dangerous here is that one of the things that we learned from the cold war, one of the things you should not do during the cold war is go toe to toe with a peer power. you don't do that, you could have vietnam, you can have afghanistan, you can have fighting in africa, but you don't go toe to toe. and this is a, a break. and i think maybe it has something to do with, you know, we have a empty president. we have an empty suit for a president because a lot of friends say, yeah, i know what you guys want to do, but it's my presidency is my legacy and i'm not going to go down. i'm not going to

be on the brought down the empire here. there's no breaking these people right now . and so having nato going against russia toe to toe, one's going to win and was going to lose. that was a lesson you should. it was one thing you didn't do during the cold war. they have broken that taboo. alexander, as i suggested, i think that the people running the show in washington are not altogether that smart. i think that they've inherited systems power institutions from people who were smarter and more competent than they are and they didn't know what to do with it. so at this point now that the u. s. is running out of soft power because of what happened in afghanistan. what's happening in ukraine is just to feed after defeat for this us empire. so i think that now they're being, they're just flailing around. they don't know what to do. their sanctions have backfired. and so their only option now is to threaten and to bully and to suggest, well,

maybe we'll use military force because they don't have any tricks left up their sleeve. so that's effectively all these guys have left. they're not smart enough to come up with any new plans. they're not smart enough to come up with anything that could fix this changing situation. they were handed a strategy down from previous generations and they don't know how to operate it in the changing world. yeah, well i think that's probably the most depressing ending of this program of all time . okay. it's all the time we have gentlemen, i want to thank my guest and in st. petersburg and in budapest. so i think our viewers for watching us here or to see you next time. remember across stock rolls. ah roku had no been

a member. oh. for those of those did you didn't actually show. so can you please go to send this to make sure you get through. so just the, the way you you about a nobody was here with

with ah with welcome to well to part. europe has to grow out of been mind sad that europe,