shock said peer director of the school for advanced studies in the social sciences professor superior, it's great to talk to you. thank you very much for your time. thank you. thank you very much. now i heard you say that the ease decision to support i, ukraine was emotional rather than rational. and i wonder what's underneath those emotions. is it ultimately and you quit about ukraine and what's best for you cream, or is it more about your, of, and its own issues? well, i, when i wrote that it was an emotional decision. and i was focusing on to the fact that, of course, i was a very id of a war. now in europe, i would have raised a lot of emotions. i was not pretty cool on these the most should. what i wrote also was the fact that this is ethan motion would asked to be balanced

by a true strategic analysis of what was happening. and that exactly was you didn't do. and the steel lot to week. or we know, and we understand that this war is a war of attrition. miss considerable, human and material cost on both side end are so most important. see now is 1st are to try to achieve a cease fire and to try to achieve it, kind of resume, public, gleaming between both side. can i stop here because here you're talking on both sides, and i'm sure you know that this conflict is seen in russia is not a war between moscow and kia, but rather as a conflict that involves many sides. and it's essentially from us, at least a proxy war between our russia and the west. so when you talk about reconciliation

and peace talks, what, what powers that you're talking about in a conflict, you have both of you have 2 side. oh, each side could be of course divided into different parts. but a conflict is basically something which happened between 2 sides and or insert ukrainian side. i am talking not just of ukraine, but also of countries which are supporting you crate. nevertheless, there is a problem of decision making, an ease her om ukraine as steel, its own decision making. 2 decision to either agree on the cease fire or too often. a discussions with russia will

be a ukrainian decision or ukraine as no more. it's ability her to make a decision in xanda decision east to be made by country which support ukraine is a problem is that these countries of seed at many, jo tie there is a decision would be a ukrainian decision. so we're, it says series and you are right, a to point to the problem. nevertheless, we need a kind of decision making. and i think that by going to obtained a much more resume enable thinking about as a conflict. as it is, you need to tonight had stage called as often

more choice and more room to maneuver for the government of ukraine. now professor cynthia, let me come back to your point about the ears supporting ukraine for emotional or rather irrational reasons. i don't have any studies to support that, but into, to me, i think there is a strong correlation between the use all internal problems, beads that issue or bureaucratic hurdles. and it supports for they actually ration or pro western brought you a reinstated. and it's almost like your brains westward orientation is being used as a psycho prop. you lay the ease own self doubt or its own structural difficulties. and i've seen this trend all the way since the early 2000 times, but definitely saw in 20122013. do you think there's any truth to that?

well, our z e u. s. search was probably not existent in 2014. you had countries part of the you, germany, stross grid, britain nicer there, which was a part of the u. m. in these countries have different agendas now, or it is also a fact that some european bureaucrats not are, you know, as a council of members, but some european bureaucrats. i've seen in events acting in ukraine as my down and all these kind of uprising um they have seen something extremely important for as a european ideas and they have pushed and of course, it is well known. and as these bureaucrats came to the my,

then demonstrations bed a real decision making force in the you were still in the counsel of the head of the states that prime minister president, until 4th am in a z was no commitment. no real commitment of the issue in support of squint bird, herb white, general commitment that we all have little great service or, you know, responding to flattery. now, can i ask you something about russia because russia was never historically, at least, and in recent times as well, was never antithetical to our europe. we also idolized in western europe for quite some time, not only after the cold warmer, even before that, probably when we were not as psycho frantic as the ukrainians. but there was a great degree of reverie and fascination with western europe. we saw the, you are

a mineral reaches a very cheap prices. why do you think it was never reciprocated? and why do you think this attitude towards russia is so strong because it's one thing to criticize rush or disagree with its policy, but to portrayed in terms as you know, the ultimate evil. and this is what we're hearing now from many european leaders. this is something very surprising to us, despite all this long history of wars between russia and european countries. as matter of fact, a relationship between russia and the you, i have been constantly are biased bye relationship with russia and count trees of the you. this is not the same sing you had a french russia relationship. chairman of russia, a relationship, even

a good britain, aggression. ok. the problem was that by 2014 as of relevance of this bilateral relationship was certainly stronger than it was now. an awe now, you ev, because of this emotional reaction, a kind off m commitment of the e u as a wall on a distant policy. and of course, zis, policy is extremely and violently anti russia. that is of us. you can still hear in government of country member of the u, storm discarding voice. and so the real problem is the fact that nobody knows what is you. is it just an audience of

entries and zahn, ah, you had to lead this country. decide. but of a position before iving and you position or easy is you a kind of forgive rishon with all the countries being like state in the united states, you know, and her. when you are coping with the united states policy and watch or what sing as a governor of california or, or of new mexico does of matter. with all due respect to these voices of reason, or the european union is supplying arms against my country and people of my country soldiers of my country being killed. and by the way, not only of russia, but also ukraine. this warren's being prolong, thanks to the supply of our weapons from across europe. and more than that, we're hearing official leaders of europe supporting the war against russia until the end, whatever that and mean. and they are defining it in very crusade like terms and

very ontological terms. it's a battle against an ultimate evil. do you think the, you have the resources and the minds, the heart of the treasure and the soldier is the skills, the capacity to win that war against russia. because if history is anything to go by, you know, such efforts by various western countries didn't really and bold was bode well for them in the past at least. well, um, if you look up to this issue clearly, so you as not yet military beat industrial or military on to wager war or to support a kind of war which is which now in ukraine that's absolutely clear. and as a stock of ammunition as being considerably depleted, are i saying that in germany it's less than 2 days

a far probably the same in from all serbs, some really to with our even think we would just have just one the of ammunition left. okay. back at the main problem is that at no one is really admitting that the ccs very, very important problem. and this is why i said i'm at one time or another at some sees far and some agreement will have to be reach and that it is not result able to make a commitment or on to a highly an ontological or position, like to say on ukraine ease i am here at all for goodness and as yet anyhow, all the sovereignty,

we knew that it will not be the case. and actually we had an exam and historical example as a war between finland and the soviet union. bossy, 9040 and in 9044 the finland. the government acknowledged the fact that it's a coastal floor. so human coastal floor was much too high and decided to negotiate with soviet union in accepting a some loss off to retrieve. i wanted to watch and i think your opponents would tell you that the new government of finland has since abandoned this kind of logic . but let's return to this very topic after a very short break. we will be back in just a few moments. stay tuned. ah ah

ah ah, ah ah ah, ah, hungary has been a member of the european union and nato since 1999 during the 1st post soviet wave of nato's eastwood expansion number be silica love?

yes, the my logo thanks is dylan lambert. david s c. like by law as a crunch. its a you so me that me it. if so we'll just, i guess for zach bud. duma, it would be showroom. yeah. still more gina beach ross. you but i see also marsh roy mug woochie struggling in the early ninety's hungry was a country with a worst view of russia due to historical disagreements left over from the soviet union. georgia, younger missouri is what you, someone not yours, but i don't want to see if you simply isn't gonna handle political more than those . what i see is great and i did it at the political dose with . mm hm. mm.

welcome back to was acquired with shock. i peer director of the school for advanced studies in the social sciences in paris for his disappearing before the break. you were talking about the neutrality and the conscious deliberate calculated decision on the part of the post war authorities in finland, the to choose what's best for its own country and to treat neutrality and security . and, you know, as actual matters of policy. but i think the problem with the european union is what some russian scientists call value. radicalization or even value fundamental isn't because no moral code other than a european or western world code is accepted. and i think that's one of the reasons why russia, china, and you know, everybody else who disagrees with the west are treated as, you know, ultimate axis of evil. what can possibly change that. and what do you see as the,

in the root cause of this phenomenon? when you know, i'm the only a source of witness and wisdom, and if you disagree with me that you are my eternal enemy. well, i think that we have to retreat from zis value. fundamentally, it's absolutely obvious. and i think that we will retreat at just because we don't have the ability to support ukraine for very long in the war as it is foul right now. ah, i think that, oh, so, so important turning point would be or when ukraine we launch is famed counter offensive. so talking of that the 4 weeks, even for mans. okay. just admit, said the, it's our lodgings east count offensive it fail. so then, what,

what are the you, as nadia ability to support ukraine any more the united states as no more the ability to support ukraine. so more so, if we are understanding that as you can pension of the united states are more and more attracted by china and base the problem of taiwan. so at one time or another, i think it will happen during the summer, at one time of another. ah, we have to retreat from value fundamentally and all in government in chief will have also to retreat and to tell the population. yes, we see that we will have a victory against russia. we coolant. we need to negotiate and began this conversation by mentioning this fancy term strategic autonomy that french president

the youth so proudly after he is a visit to china. now he immediately after using it, i got some reprimand from across the ocean. and in general, i think the french leader has a reputation of her, you know, talking too much and doing, and not translating that exactly in policy terms. let's put a diplomatic limit. do you think that was sort of an expression of microns own ambition and inkling? was it all about his personality or do you see that as a potential within our french policy? can france be the one who will sort of who that feed down and say that, you know, we're going to be a nation that stands for its own national interest and for europe's interests are independent of what our american allies want us to do? well, ah, there is certainly a personal dimensions or even declaration made by president mackerel. and well,

we have to lead that on to side because much could be said about as a person of the own personalities of macro. what is true is that there is still in france, a strong feeling that, or interest are not the same than once of the united states. even if they're not in conflict necessarily. but they're not asleep on that, even or interest are not necessarily the see that german interest and they're at one point or another. we need to, but full war or own national interest. after that, how could we do that? well, this is a discussions to you. oh, going from as it is a discussion also, still going in germany and indifferent other european countries because

earn some people are in europe, have understood that a u. s. national interest and not the same, that interest of european countries and even r o and the european union. so at one time at one time, zis divergence of interest will appear clear early. okay, when, when that happens professor appear. what would you strategic autonomy mean in practical terms, given that you have sever economic ties with russia, you are about to sever or minimize economic ties with china under the pressure from the united states, you have a mounting load of own internal economic political migration problems. can europe stand on its own can continue to exist without some powerful nation to lean

on be the united states or somebody else? yes. zimri's. some willingness to achieve these strategic autonomy. some politicians are in the steady the district the g. autonomy is necessary if we ward, zed european countries and the european union will survive that ho. woolsey is but moses as this is of course something we still don't know. i will also edible, by publish sizing, too much disposition. i put it on my call as probably under mine. it is a very idy because i, you know, as a lady general the girl as an an expiration and said, well, ah, it is not shouting you rob your rob, you rob ah,

ally goods her on her on a table that you will make sync to advance quite frequently on this very important, but also very difficult issue of strategic autonomy. it's better to quit, to keep quiet, end to make some decisions. the problem is that even if there is a kind of general agreement that is needed for her europe, the re steel or launch a difference and may be conflict between countries like fraud, germany, italy, spain. so we will have 1st a to find a kind of agreement on these conflicts before we call hack. n z says, you know, it's a critical point on a to z,

a european union decision making. that is, if we need 1st to have these kind of discussion between us before it being able to move forward on her so world and until level. i'm. so i of course, all decision making will be slow, painful. ah, not exactly clear for other countries. and you know, it is not just a problem of russia, it also is a problem of china and may be also the problem of united states. now kerry, asking one last and quite because our time is running out. but it's a fascinating one to me because a few years ago, you were lecturing a lot about the strengths of institutions and the importance of assessment institutions within the m, as in a successful economic as system. the capitalist system, that is,

and the assumption was that the western europe has great institutions. russia has also institutions. but if we look at the way russia has been able to pull itself together in both in the face of sanctions and in the face of this military operation with its huge financial logistical military, our supplier demands. how do you think that was actually an accurate assumption? because say it seems to me that the rush is long, more efficient in facing this difficult times than europe has ever been in recent history. well on russia as quite obs, usually effective institutions may be not om effect div open or formal institutions, may be avi sometimes or institutions behinds occurs to the steel zeal, z or institutions and ers, a problem. now in europe insert,

we have blurred institutions because, or understanding even of europeans, an institution is not a same. ah, spanish government is not giving the same definition of spawn. europe and institution sent a german government was a french government. but this is also part of earned of the problem, but i seeing that informal institutions in russia as been particularly strong as it is rather here, highlighting it a very important difference between our russians and reconsider ourselves to be europeans. and let's say, wasn't your advocacy for you? it's all about definitions. you're arguing about asset concepts and for as the most important thing is worth worth, what works in reality, man, much war reality. mays yes. but a informal institution called were and frequently called work,

or in the short earth into short term, better than formal institution, burtons, or log it important to formalize what as dean shaped in formal it was, this is where pretty easily were, ah, russian economy also, russian society as a problem because it has a very, very long traditions. you know, i'm a booming to said, sorry, easter or a situation. but even under soviet union, you head this divergence between official institutions and industry 2 twin behind the curtain. and we knows that institution behind the curtain was frequently more important than formal institutions. it is more or less the same situation. of course, russia is, is no more. is it as of yet union?

it's absolutely a different situation. but in this, you know, erm in zayus are situation of formal and informal institutions. yes, i think that russia is still very embedded into zayus or id that informal institutions are working more effectively that seeing more efficiently. and one more thing before, as i agree with you, we are on there and different on the 2 very different sides of the spectrum because you are putting all the value on formality and look where it led to your own union and destroy it sounds to me that the european union is falling apart because of a very formalist attitude to itself, but professor severe, we're out of time. it's been a fascinating conversation. thank you very much for that. thank you very much. and thank you for watching hope to see her again on the well, the part with

me. oh, a member. oh. well those are those did you do? my actually shows him you lose through things to lose your clue just to use the way you you good. let's go to your little,

nobody was here with ah watch and it was a shorter one, but i'm not trying to stay like a national z. m a ah

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