the, the, the hello, i'm manila chan. you're tuned into modus operandi. it's presently the most populated country on earth. china with its nearly 1400000000 residents is projecting a different population in the coming years, while hawks are predicting

a complete bust in its development. meanwhile, the united states is seeing the slowest 1st rates in more than 30 years. so what does that mean for the world's top to super powers? we'll discuss it. all right, let's get into the m o the . they're both economics super powers, as well as militarily the us and china, some 330000000 people in the us as compared to china is whopping 1400000000 with china is nearly 4 to one population. why are some predicting china will collapse on itself? because it won't have enough people in the next decade. now across the world, there is a birth rate bust, seemingly right in line with an economic slump experienced by everyone. yet some

countries and some ethnic groups are divergent from this trend. joining us to discuss is rider scholar research or an activist. he's also a contributor to the book capitalism on a ventilator k j no is here to weigh in a k j. i'd like to break up our conversation into 2 parts. the 1st part covering the western world's following birth rates, the united states, the you and so forth. and then secondly, we'll go into asia to include the middle east as well. most specifically will focus on china. so 1st, let's examine the united states. you and i are both here different close, but we're both here. according to the us, the official numbers are outburst in the us have dropped 4 percent in 2020. the 2021 numbers. show a one percent increase year over

a year. the 2022 numbers aren't out just yet. but generally speaking, there are fewer babies born nowadays than in generations passed here in the us. somebody blamed economic uncertainty. some blame abortion, some place. blame on the destruction of new clear families in america. what do you see as the primary driver of this generations lowered birth rates. so yeah, that's a really good question. manila, i think the 1st thing is that we have to kind of bracket 20202122 because it probably is influenced by cove it. so i think corporate definitely affected the both rate for a variety of reasons. but i think the key question is, you know, why is birth rate a problem with developing countries at all? and it's primarily economic problem. you know, you have the ratio of productive working h people to non working h people. and that creates

a drag on the economy. the way that i understand it is the key issue for lowering both rates in developed countries is quite simply economic uncertainty or, you know, let's just name it increasing poverty and precarious it's. it's just too hard, too expensive to have children for a lot of young families. and if we want to take that a little bit further, the cause of this poverty and fatality is neo liberalism. you know, the us capitalist economy stalled out in the seventy's response of the government was to discipline labor and to remove social supports to force more people into the workforce and to work hard and for less. the scripts, uh, compet, competition to the bottom, you know, creates increased productivity for a while, but, but when you have all the family members going to work and some of them working 2

to 3 jobs, couples don't have time for each other, let alone children. and so the choice not to have children you delayed until you feel secure or less precarious, but that they never comes or when it comes, it's too late. and i think these are some of the core reasons why both rates are dropping in western new liberal states. so until around, i'd say the 1980s, women in america were vastly outnumbered at universities and colleges around the country. today, the opposite is true. according to a 2021 p research study. they found that female graduation rates at universities were about 10 percent higher than their male peers. now this is not to say that women getting a college education is a bad thing, rather, just like to examine how education in america contributes to a decline in birth rates or does it play a role at all?

well, i think it actually does play a significant role. i mean, just to go back to the history, remember we call an undergraduate degree a bachelor's degree. and that's because traditionally, you will not allow to be married and study at university. you had the overtones of a monastic vocation and we still see echoes of that. in that if you study, you're not going to be able to go to school with your children the front a little supports for mothers or parents in universe jordan, any educational setting. i, i personally think that parents and mothers should be able to bring that kids not only to work, but to school. an intergenerational workplace or academic setting is an absolutely good sick. but by and large women have had to make a hard choice. do i go to school, continue my education, or do i have kids? and i think the difficulty is that it's just very,

very hard. on the flip side, you have more women in graduate school, then you have men at the current moment. and of course, the causes are, you know, manifold, but boys tend to drop out of school earlier. they have more opportunities in work, or apprenticeship, or even manual work. they also have more difficulties in school. they sometimes find that an alienating experience. and of course, education is a way up in a patriarchal society that is stacked against women. so women get more education, they also do better in school and they also delayed childbirth, which also results in reduced both rates. and i think, you know, these things can be changed to policy primarily by creating school as a more child friendly environment. so i always wonder about the name bachelor's

degree. thank you for that. um, you know, having been an older american mother myself, the medical community called expectant mothers over the age of 35 here. geriatric. but you know, i got married late, i started a family late. and statistics show, typically someone like me, doesn't tend to have more than one or 2 babies. i have one that was due in part to, you know, career chasing, and my own personal choices in life. but also because the united states doesn't really have any real federal laws that guarantee me, any job security or any substantive maternity leave or, you know, we're good health care for me or my baby. those were only things i manage to secure for myself with age through the private sector. so, you know, barring my husband from the equation, but do you think the u. s. federal laws such as fmla undermine america's

claims. that family is important. yes, absolutely. you know, i think you're absolutely correct that it undermines this notion that sadly is important. you know, the s m l a, a, a provides a total of 12 work weeks of unpaid leave. uh for uh, you know, an expectant mother. and it only applies to companies that 50 on more workers. uh and you know, the fundamental thing is that policy and the budgets attached to it are moral statements. and the simple fact is that the fmla has no budget backbone. that is to say, it has no moral backbone, so it's a really hypocritical type of policy. the other thing i'll add is that, you know, very often as, as you also pointed out, you know, it's often framed as

a personal choice whether to have or not to have a child. but as you point out, these personal choices are driven by policy and structural forces. if you don't have job security maternity leave health care, it's very, very hard to have children. and if you did, if you didn't have to worry about economics, i think many people would have children and more children and sooner. so k j is everything we've discussed here is this, you know, really specific to the west or do you see this more as a common trend? or maybe there's a threat over in western nations including those in europe. it's also similar to west and nations. you know, western european nations do tend to have better child supports better maternity leave, but the trend is to diminish and to remove them. and so we see the same types of neo liberal austerity happening across the board. you see the large,

you know, the movements of 5 back against that, but it seems to be largely a losing battle. and so to the extent that they're subject to the same types of neo liberal austerity, you're going to see the same uh influence. is that mitigate against having childbirth? uh and uh, and therefore lowered. uh, you know, uh, both rates coming up next. some analysts believe china will go bust in the next decade with the population decline to wrap it to maintain its economy. we'll discuss it with k j. know when we return, sit tight, the m o will be right back. the the,

the training and tasks inside rushes stepped up to be some months. the reason drove the tax on the kremlin is the most notable. is this part of the long awaited ukrainian culture offensive? if so, what is the objective of this culture events? it isn't to promote a wire. the

the welcome back to the m. o i manila, chad. now if you ask most people outside of western countries, they'll tell you that the 21st century belongs to china. that the 20th century shines right for the west. the collective global south seems at odds with what some analysts that predicts doom and gloom for china. writer and research are k j no is staying with us to continue this conversation. so k, j over in asia for much of the 20th century, china was leading away and live birds. india also both account for populations in the multi billions the collective west, often chided asia for a population boom,

looking back now. so was the birth boom. a good thing for the region. you know, just to kind of break it down a little bit. for countries they have high birth rates, but they also have high mortality rates. and so then that you get very and population growth rates depending on the country and the specific situation as the country becomes more develop, the economies improve. and so we see continued high birth rates, but we start to see dropping infant mortality rates. and then that results in the population growth. this is the kind of overshoot period. and then there's a kind of adjustment period where the bus rates start to lower because you don't need to have 10 children just to support yourself. and you also see low mortality rates and this is stable for a while, but then it leads to low population growth. and then the 4th period is

a kind of a drag period. when you have low birth rates, low infant mortality, and also increased life expectancy. that is, you not enough working age people too many elderly, you know, it creates a drag on the economy. it's like having a small engine, but the car with the buses getting more and more full. and then so this is the issue that often developed economies space. and then the 5th stage, which is often what you see in the western european states, is you have this economic drag, which is dealt with through neo liberalism. and so you have low both rates, low infant mortality, but no social supports. you get very low birth rates, you have in balanced economy, and then you start to see increased mortality as well. for example, in the united states, you have the lowest mortality, the lowest life expectancy in 30 years. and so these are some of the kind of long

term bad outcomes of a capitalist approach to dealing with this issue. and in certain countries, for example, in japan, you know, the japanese say, you know, we are on the verge of collapse. so just to get back to a question was the 1st boom? good. you know, it was inevitable. lowered infant mortality increased life expectancy. you're going to see a boom in china. it was a good seeing it create a vice productive workplace that lifted itself out of pro a out of poverty in india. it was much less effective because india just kind of model through and this pro, to a capitalist pro, to socialist way. in carol, i use so good outcomes in other places. i think it speaks for itself, the immense human misery, the immense poverty. and so starting at the same population with the same population, same land mass, you know, china is 6 times,

well fear of per capita. then india, and i think that shows that if you have good planning or a socialist approach to planning, then that can work better and it can harness productive forces and really develop a country right now in the 21st century. china is seeing a slow down in birth. how much of that has to do with perhaps the inescapable western influence may be something like pop culture, or is this declining birth rate attributable? uh, more to china's rapid economic advancement and, and their industrial boom to, you know, i think it's a much more attributable to the economic stage at which it's at. so, you know, just kind of to go back. china isn't the 3rd phase. it has a low birth rate, it has a low infant mortality rate, and that is resulting in lowering population gross. it's the,

the overshoot is correcting itself. incident. income's rise, infant mortality drops, childbirth drops along with it because you don't need so many children. and then there starts to be an odd to shoot. so families and women are having less children. and overtime it falls to or below the replacement rate. uh, you know, the, the way that china will probably deal with this. it's not going to be, uh, it, it's not, it's not a problem that is in, on fixable for china. china currently has a very, very low retirement age. you can retire as early as 50 if you want, and often people retire at 55. so there's room for the retirement age to be increased, so you have a longer productive workplace. and then the other thing that china is doing,

which is really quite astonishing, is it is automating the workplace. so you see incredible amounts of 5 and 6, g enabled robots that are doing a lot of the work that was done before by people. and so i think this kind of drag or in balance of a productive workplace is actually less of a problem for china. simply because it plans for the long term any can see these things coming. many west or analysts are blaming china is declining birth rate on the old one child policy. is that a accurate or even fair assessment? you know, so i think it's multiple factors. you know, i think having fewer children was necessary at the time because the population was in that overshoot phase. and so they probably went too much in to, an under shoot stays through policy. so in 2015 it was correct to,

to children. and now it's currently 3 children, and it's not simply a, a, a policy that, you know, re most constraints, but it has a lot of positive supports in the child welfare support maternity leave. you know, shanghai has a 150 days of maternity leave. her non has a $190.00 days, 3 months of pre maternity leave. and when you leave, you get the equivalent of your highest income the previous year, or the mean salary of everybody in the company. and so, you know, there a lot of supports for families and mothers to have children. and i think this is very positive. as we know, this allows for secure attachment for the child that creates an emotionally healthy child, and that you know, goes a long way to creating a strong, healthy and emotionally healthy workforce. now conversely, japan never had any child policies and they went through

a much earlier economic boom in the late 20th century. how do we explain japan's slowing birth rates today to? well, japan slink birth rates. i refer to it as the 4th and 5th stage, or really the 5th stage. it's the neo liberal breaking when society cannot sustain a work force to have to be both productive at work and to be productive and having children. and so just to look at the history a little bit, you know, japan has a neo liberal economy, developed through 2 large boons in the 19 fifties and 19 sixties and seventies. and these were related to the korean war and the vietnam war. japan literally built its economic system through a good measure of war, profiteering it, you know, industrial giants were or machines and they develop during this period flush with money from the korean war and the vietnam war. and this momentum kept to go into

the 19 eighties and it became very big and economically powerful. us sold this as a threat and it decided it was going to cut it down to size in particularly using the plaza accords. and this got a t industries like she bought. and so japan has never recovered from that shock. it's a stagnant economy. it stumbles along its wages have been stagnant for 30 years. and that shift from developmental capitalism to neo liberalism. or i've been all mix failed completely and so in japan, currently what you see is people working to hi, husband sometimes don't see their wise, you know, they come home and a drop dead from fatigue. japan has a term cut or sheet, which means death from overwork. the same thing with soft gray, which is facing

a similar issue. and so you simply have lots of people who are employment age who simply have given up. they've given up having family and jo, bob's uh and uh, you know, japan uh, according to the statistics. currently it has a population under the 8w12x8w, but it had 800000 bucks last year. and it has the 2nd highest proportion of age people of any country in the world. and so she di, uh, according to the just that he says that, you know, he wants to double the spending on child programs. but i don't see that happening with the 3 militarization. japan's population will fall from its current $128000000.00 to less than $53000000.00 by the end of the century. so they are in very, very deep trouble. wow. talk about a rat race,

having a phrase for it. and russia is in a unique position. they sit mostly on the asian continent. they look like europeans, but they share family values more similar to asian culture. lots women who have babies, such as giving them one full year of maternity leave, as part of a universal law across the federation. now they've been industrialized for over a 100 years. i'm oversimplifying all of this, of course, but how to china's mat, leave policies, compare to those in russia. and i think they compare very, very favorably. but before i get into that, i just want to point out this kind of ation, european. um, you know, uh, perspective about russia now, george cannon was the architect of us, cold war containment policy against russia. and somebody wants us. and why can't we coexist peacefully with russia?

he gave a long winded explanation, and then he got tired of talking and he just kind of came out with. he says, the russians are an a sciatic race. and so we see that in the current moment where the russia, where the west coast is. russia asian and you know, an enemy state or a threat. so we have that legacy coming all the way down. but comparing china versus russia, i think they compare quite favorably in russia and also in the post soviet states. there is the legacy of the soviet socialist system. so, you know, mothers are given uh, you know, uh uh, at least a 140 days maternity leave. if you have multiple multiple birds, it's much longer. you get uh, you know, uh, $11000.00 plus roubles per month, etc. uh,

china has comparable uh supports. sometimes it's better. it depends on the actual uh province. but the state mandates $98.00 days of post mentor if you lease lease and you can have between one to 3 months additional regional leave. so that takes you close to about $160.00 or even a $190.00 days, depending on which providence you live. in and then you also get in certain areas 90 days, pre maternity leave in shanghai, you get una parental leave for 3 years after birth and they also have miscarriage. and abortion leaves, which ranges from $15.00 to $75.00 days. i think these are really important, necessary considerations and the fact that, you know,

these things don't even exist in the united states. i think speaks again, again to the terrible gaps that we have. i'll, i'll just point out that both rush and china are not wealthy countries. china has one 5th of the us g d p. but if it can allow, you know, a 190 days of a maternity leave, i think that's something we should definitely learn from china. alright, k j no. well, we've got to leave that right there. you're much appreciated for your thoughts and insight. he's also a contributor, everybody to be book capitalism on a ventilator. thank you so much. k j. thank you. all right, that's going to do it for this weeks episode of modus operandi the show that digs deep in the foreign policy. i'm your host vanilla chan. thank you so much for tuning in. we'll see you again next week. figure out the m o, the

gosh. there's a high quality of life to my destination is having the necessary conditions, the most part you can restore it most in terms of the number of hours available in a week to contact can being pretty sure change, which is why i would say to be conscious of your existence, what about take is a transcend device or existence. they would put, it shows you all the adults and it means one thing, but it was not going to cut them. we've, you purchased it. mean to know that in some ways that the, if you're still exploring new to tennis, you need something else. just as though without that the, you are essentially a mundane person and shy, pronounce that as well. some of the the

look forward to talking to you all, that technology should work for people. a robot must obey the orders given by human beings except we're such shorter. is it conflict with the 1st law? should we live in justification? we should be very careful about the personal intelligence at the point, obviously is to create a truck rather than to the area. i mean with the artificial intelligence we have summoning the theme and the most protects. this phone existence was on the the

western side of the city. that is, you printed out to the rebuttal, it was in the military base on the west side of the city. are you kidding me? from? retreated from here under attack. the russian private military company wagner. claims it's made of boxes in october, of course, and on those back booth with just a little over 2 square kilometers left. if the city is built a tight as always ought to remain on the front block. pro ukrainian activists try to disrupt events in your honoring soviet liberators from the 2nd world war. if police were even forced to move in to try and keep the sides apart. the law ukraine swaps out may 9th, big 3 days and abrasions of a nazi germany with the use of europe today expressed.