of the cross talking ukraine and europe, i'm joined by my guess, matthew errant in montreal. he's a senior fellow at the american university of moscow and director of the rising tide foundation of canada. and in parents we cross a john laughlin, he's a university lecturer and in history and political philosophy. all right, gentlemen, crosstalk rules and effect, that means you can jump any time you want. and i would appreciate, john, let me go to you you of course you've been following the news as closely as i have been. and with the, with the, the, the new iteration of what needs to be done is a ceasefire. creating some kind of security arrangement with ukraine a can to the, uh, is really model. i mean, a lot of ink is being spelled, a lot of people are talking. and it's all nonsense because at the end of the day, what needs to be considered is what's gonna happen at the after the end of this conflict and what it's ramifications will be mostly for your up or ukraine, which i think everyone knows it will be destroyed and the, the european union will be left or holding the bag of some kind of run state. it's

very unclear of nato can even survive this debacle. the nato is the problem, nate, because of the existence of nato and its objectives. cause this conflict to your thoughts, john? yeah, i mean, it's pretty clear isn't that there are different factions within the american administration. they're obviously the new york on hoax. and, but they're also seem to be some, perhaps pentagon realists, and that's why, as you suggested in your question, the room is about a ceasefire, a phrase and conflict, a stalemate. all of those forms of words, if they prevail, if that option prevails. the other option, of course, being to escalate the wall, which many people are arguing for. but if the frozen conflict of multiple prevails, then that is of course, a victory for russia, at least in the immediate and perhaps short medium terms. what i mean by that is

that there are plenty of other frozen conflicts in the territory of the former. so it'd be unanimously in georgia from the 20 of a conflict in the motive of it and transmit straight from the early nineties and all of them. i mean, to put a very blunt leave that russian troops in the territories in question and then not likely to be going home at any point soon. and the reason why i think that that model may indeed be the one that will now turn out to be a to prevail is that's of course we are a few days from the defeats of ukraine in best mood, a defeats which it was initially. it was very difficult to confirm is looking at uh wonderful media because they were different claims and counter changed, but which i think we can say is now set a defeat for the ukranian side. precisely because you can't find anything about it in the media. if i, if the fighting was still going on and if the ukraine had any jobs of,

of recapturing the city in the, in the immediate future, then we would have nothing else. so that defeat and of course the can comments and the fact that the famous counselor offensive seems to be being put off more and more. makes me wonder whether indeed there isn't a pentagon realist faction. we've had room is of this since december. i'm with uh, the west, inside the nature side now realizes that actually a frozen conflict is about the only face saving solution that they can hope for. well, you know, to, i think there's one problem with that. i say your line of argumentation as usual, it's impossible that let me go to matthew in montreal, but to have a ceasefire, you have to have both sides to agree. why would russia agree? as well as best made the points of either it's very difficult to speak to count of parties that have made, made it illegal to having to go. she ation with the current sitting leadership of russia. so there's very much to talk to if that were to change, but the problem still exists, which is, well,

what is the ultimate objective regarding benito and us catalogs of the current as a once the regime or at the, at the end of the day, what do they watch at all, you know, there, there is a, i think a lot of in fighting right now about the fact that what we suppose to happen a year ago did not happen. russia was not destroyed, it was not crippled economically yet. um, a lot of these forecasts that were believed to be the necessary, obvious outcome of this uh, this gap. it did not happen rough as much stronger on almost every variable in every metric that one can look at. especially when compared to the increasingly sinking west. i think that you, you have of all sorts of contrary messaging coming out of the west. a lot of i think these are signs of a lot of in fighting all actual to say no freeze is going to happen. um, you know, you, you have so many different things that i don't think it is likely a rush. it just needs a 6th sure us spear of existence it needs to have it's,

it's security interest met. it's not that difficult. understand. and as long as you have an ideal, ideologically driven and fascist li, inclined militarist that are being supported any, any way within new west ukraine, it's simply is not going to be in the security interest in the, to the degree that you have still an open agreements that eventually ukraine will be brought into data with some point. well, i mean, the red lines, how in the world, i mean, louisa turned to john here. i mean, the 2 biggest problems here that we have is that the west in the 1st of all back then illegal. cool. when 2014 brought to power some alternation. what's, what's called them what they are fascist because that's what they are. okay. and they've been empowered, they didn't have that kind of sway before 2014, what they did was they maybe illegal opposition parties and zalinski went even further monopolizing and nationalizing the media. and then the 2nd,

the 2nd to the drops as it were, is the minutes a process. so, i mean, you can deal with these fanatics in ukraine that have been empowered by the west and the europeans and why in the world. but the russians trust a another agreement, i wouldn't. oh, by the way, who blow up the pipelines. i mean, this is the dilemma we're having, and that's why i think if there is a frozen conflict, it would be under russians terms. and they're in the west and just going to have to suck it up, john? yeah, no, i think that's right. that's sorry. uh, that's actually more of what i meant when i was talking about to cease, but i did use the word present conflict in my reply because i, i do think that the, the, the, the, the, the 1st and conflict model, if you can call it that is a face saving device, right? it doesn't mean that i, if i sent the device for the west, of course, what the, why would russia be content with that? well, it seems to me, but again i, i'm not a military specialist that russia does have difficulty or has had difficulty

advancing. we, we'll remember the retreat from have solved and from, from, from hosp gulf, some months ago we've seen that the battle of best moot has been very difficult. we may deploy that fact, but it seems to be the case. it's not that is if russia can go into ukraine like a nice through bought to at so, you know, it's maybe not just as for the west, it realizes that its desires have come up against the britain will of reality. the same may be true of russia, and that is why the thing maze is allowed. i'm not saying it will. it may, i feel with there's a lot of talk about escalation is it took to talk about the f sixteens and the liquid tanks and all the rest of it. it's uh, but it may be that the style mates is what we're heading to simply because of the facts on the ground. yeah, well math here. you know what this program, primarily it's objective is to uh, deconstruct the all the western mets and media about this conflict and other topics

is, well, what's all, remember, let's do a little bit, go down the path of history and remember, you know, little pluck, you know, ukraine, you know, against the russian bear and all that for 8 years, nato was building up the military capacity of ukraine with sophisticated weapons and technology. okay. surveillance, the works here. and plus, we have to remember it is, it is widely believed. i believe it that when russia started its special military operation, that was just prior to what the ukrainians were going to do and invading the don bass. so they were and they had enough offensive past year. they were built up. and this is why it's being so hard to push back. but, you know, if you look in a military in europe for the 1st day of the complex ukraine was 2nd after turkey in, in, in europe. so, i mean, this narrative being a poor little ukraine and, and look what's been poured in since then. now i am for me, it is very, very dangerous that go down the escalation ladder because that's what nato is going

to do. but they're not going to send those f sixteens, matthew, they're not going to do it because they'll all be shot down. and how is, how is the americans going to explain? is a pedal there are trinkets around the world? well, they all got shut down because oh they were you creating pilots? okay. know, these planes were fighting our um, um um over um people that were in the middle east herdsman so okay. going up on near pier power in rushes, proven conventional aid is superior to the united states. matthew, it all you laid out very, very clearly. i mean i, i think that again that there's this, this ivory tower problem which and i'm not a military expert, but i do know when i see ivory tower thinking collapsing when pressed against reality. and there's this idea that all conflicts are somehow created equal in this mathematical plainfield. and just because they were a lot, they were able to get certain effects in the middle east against shepherds and people were, you know, fighting malicious style from mountain ranges and what have you, all of a sudden now that they're seeing that,

that the same effect is not happening when you have a similar, maybe a quantitative we rate or magnitude of military power put into something. because all of a sudden you're dealing with a very technologically advanced society of, of russia, which has been able to produce weaponry, hypersonic missiles and a variety of other things that have changed the rules of the game there. the would, many of the weapons that, that russia has been able to produce over the last years shouldn't even exist as part of the, the formula for success of the west. they're, they're not, they're not in reality. and so i, i mean, i think that there is this uh, this problem we're by russia in the past and throughout the cold war was not in a situation of, of economic and political at security to the degree that we see today with the multi polar alliance with its special relationship with a china increasingly also as a iran, a variety of other nations of your asia. the shanghai cooperation organization is create a strength and a confidence, which i think is rendering many,

many western view politicians extremely insecure. and they're, they're, they're getting, they're not able to formulate or, or plan what will be done next will say, man and man is the last 2 right before we go to meet before we go to the break, throw in and i'm agreeing with you d dollarization. that's happening very, very quickly. yes, absolutely. i mean, is this happening in an accelerated rate? the already 2 thirds of the trade between china and russia is, are being done local currencies. and that was just the one quarter just in 2021. so you have the vast, vast dollarization that's very important. all right, on that top gentleman wrong today, we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on ukraine and here say what are the

same wrong just on the safe house? because the engagement equals the trail. when so many find themselves boils, the parts we choose to look so common ground, the of the in 1492 this evening, christopher columbus, rates to the bahamas and discover the new world for europe. the wealth of america and its fast territories. cosby envy of the europeans, especially the spaniards and the portuguese. they sought after taking over these lands. however, there lived indigenous peoples with

a high culture and their own nationhood. there the barbaric colonization of america, which went down in history under the name of con deece that lasted for more than 100 years, 101521 care design. cortez is done with doors captured and destroyed the capital of the aztec empire. daniel practically massacring the local population. following them, francisco pizarro is conquistadores destroyed the inca empire. as a result of spanish aggression, the ancient maya civilization collapse, suppressing the resistance of the indians. the invaders carried out mass executions . the horrendous genocide was aggravated by the diseases that the europeans had brought to america. the number of the indigenous population decreased 16 times from 25. so one and a half 1000000 people from keystone became one of the largest demographic disaster fees of mankind and remains an indelible bloody stain in the history of the

european colonial empires. welcome back. the cross huck. we're all things are considered. i'm peter rondell to remind you we're discussing ukraine and during the ok, let's go back to john in paris. i add somebody, you know, i've debated what's going on and you create ever since it started in and always gets down to really timelines and perception of time and how, what needs to be achieved. i, my position has been from the get go is change very, very little. is it, this conflict will come to an end when russia is ready and when it believes that security has been guaranteed. now, however, that is, i don't know, no one knows at this point here, but what is the knock on effect for nato nato is facing an abject failure. okay,

and i don't see how it comes back from it. and then even more so these looney tunes running the european union. what cost, what, what consequences do they face if any? because if you disagree with them, they just disappear, you incense, are you. so i think they feel that they have a, a free pass for a to, to go down these ridiculous pilot probably with a green mania ukraine. just gender nonsense. a no consequences if they can control all the media. john. yeah, but i mean, we're in the situation of the former soviet union with yeah, so it looks like a logical domination. uh, there is an absolutely fanatical pursuit of a series of policies, a series of ideologies. rather the ones you've just listed, climate, you know, good. the great, the green transition, the green deals agenda, madness and so on, all of which have in common the idea the, the,

the crazy idea of the faithful can see. because afraid, if i put to that reality can be made to bends to the human will. and that reality can be dictated by pollution. and of course that's a that can see it is now coming to a grizzly. and in the, in the fields of ukraine, about the political capital invested in this is so it meant that they will never be able to get out of data. and i confidently predict that if we have a discussion in 10 years time about ukraine's accession process to the european union, it will still be on the agenda because these things just go on indefinitely and the sort of game of institutional make believe. and meanwhile, as you suggesting your question, the money is how much or how many hemorrhaging out? because yes, they've promised to uh, take me recently on the last week, i think they, the, the european union said it would support ukraine for as long as it takes. so they think they're in it for the long game. one of the

a strategies of nato in the americans was indeed to lou a russia into a trap. and to get russia in tangled bog down in ukraine and in various insurgencies, perhaps even within roster itself. that was the that was the ask. and his style mobile, which was a proposed la in 2022 by a, by an american admiral. that's that most. ready of course was part of the nato strategy. and no doubt in the 1st months of the will. they were very happy that they so russia had walked into the truck. the only problem is the time is on russia . sorry to deb lydon mobile, the idea that sucks, dragging them into an es, got his style style. i've got his to install it through insurrection which they will fund, which the americans will funds that so very well to have that as the mobile. and they did indeed last for 20 years, but we'll know who won in the end. it wasn't the americans. so i think russia at time based on russia sides. but i do think that this conflict, frozen a lot of whatever intensity will now last for 51020 is

well, matthew, but it gets all down to capacity. i mean, how many more bodies do you, does ukraine have to throw into this conflict? unless, unless they want to expand the war and how invite you know, polish troops and romanian troops in bulgarian groups. and i don't know why they would do that. ok. i mean if one do it 2 words come to mind over the last 8 months . it's a meat grinder, i don't see people stepping up that way, you know, clearing out, you know, your warehouse is of old. soviet dear is one thing and that's essentially what they've done. okay. and then the promise of all these, these trinkets here, they're mostly promises. yeah. some of the tanks are going and they're not going to make a difference and they know it. ok. i tend to think, you know, obviously that there are these planners. i mean, who came up with the idea of just on could address it from this with system, you know, taking the door and the roof will fall when i'm sure somebody was peddling that 18

months ago. okay. and it didn't work these, these trinkets, these are these military um trinkets of the west and ssl is around the world. it doesn't work like the patriot with ask the saudis, if it works. okay. i mean, i, there's at a certain point of capacity where, you know, you can keep throwing something at it and get 0 results and, and as john says, i mean it, this does cost money. and it's always at the expense of what you can do at home. matthew, you know, yeah, absolutely. the entire taking out of russia was always celebrate. it's giving great economic time or the nuclear, a economic time bomb that was always going to be launched as a special weapon of mass destruction against russia. and here it is in reference, not destroyed there. they're actually in a better place, a, as you're bonded, already discovered how this works. i know i, i think if anything the, the of create a very, very different situation a different world has arisen that is much more secure with their alliances. you

know, the, the, again, way i've already did, you mentioned the restaurant training around the whole multiple reliance. there's a much greater awareness that they're in this for their theirs, their, their survival, the survival of civilization as a whole. in order to, to create diplomatic bridges and economic lines of communication that allow for capacity building and building durable systems that can endure the coming storm. of the, of an economic meltdown of the west. and i think that sort of always hovering in the air behind the economic or the, the military decisions being made is there's this impending doom of the banking system centered in, in a wall street in london. the entire transatlantic banking community is sitting on a, on a on payable debts that are propping of bubbles that are, that are melting down. we're going to collapse phase. so there is a certain hectic nest to try to create. i think the kick over the chessboard. let's just say it that way, in order to then try to rearrange the rules of the game in the favor of those unit polaris of the trans blanket community of that and want to control the world. and

the majority of the world is simply not having it. um that's, that's just part of it. yeah, it's, it's very interesting, john, because you and i have talked about this many times in this program about the cultural and civilizational angle of it, which never is never mentioned in western media because they're all neo liberals and secular. and so again, they don't understand the value of culture and civilization and more and more people when they have the strength and the capacity will defend that. we've seen that all to these complex a john, i have heard that we're rapidly running out of time. um i, this is my kind of problem. notice i usually don't say it in public, but i think so it, ukraine will survive as some kind of rump state, but it will still have it's banned a ride leadership. and maybe i don't know if zelinsky survives or not, but it's very curious, isn't it that brussels is going to be adopting a little fast as child to take care of. i think that's not a good look john or no, but uh, i think that's what they will do because of the rule. if we take the 20. ready 8

georgian will, i mean, so i guess really it was maybe not a fascist about he if cool, started that little conflict and then lost it and he was in favor for a very long time. so there's no reason why given that precedent, they shouldn't do the same thing with ukraine. and perhaps in due course, the same thing will happen in ukraine, but in a very long and, you know, in the much longer time as happened in georgia. whereas, you know, things moved on and the, the crazies eventually lost, lost power and more realistic politicians came to power. and that, so really is a very long way off. and indeed on the country a hoax in places like poland and of course in washington, dc. you know, having a wet dreams about the publish list you 80 and coming well and basically expanding poland into into you kind and all the rest of it. so yeah, i mean, everyone is going to carry on with the fantasies about, and i just repeat in whatever form, whether it's,

we're in terms of military operations on the ground. economic will fab political welfare including the cultural domain. this conflict will continue for the foreseeable future. there are absolutely no conditions. i cannot see any conditions under which i just believe you said in your earlier questions. either russia or the western side will talk to each of the collapse of confidence on both sides. it's so total that instead we are in the, for a war of attrition on all levels on a multi spectrum war of attrition. so as i say, even if it doesn't, even if militarily not much happens, it will, of course, continue economically in the form of unconventional will fit insurgency. obviously political, welfare and sanctions and sell them as matthew, his very, rightly and very well put to it. the question is, who cannot hold out longer? very often. that's what, how was that decided? yeah, you a, it's a older measure of timing. and as we have indeed seen older stuff about russia

having an economy, the size of spain, which you could just push over with the, with your finger tip is obviously untrue. not just because it's being proved to be on to. but also because they think it's used to take to, to, to say that tons of nonsense themselves. nonsense. you know, g d, p, figures are all very well. but if, if the american ged pay is just a little bit of a paid lawyer as it doesn't help you win a war. whereas if russian g d p is about building tank. so building as hypersonic missiles or whatever, then of course that strengthens ross, it rushes position and i fully agree with what matthew said about the multiple. well, you know, we talk about china and russia of strengthening their lines. yes. and the wrong yes, that's all fine. but what about saudi arabia that really is the pivot? oh yes. yeah. that will do. that was not and excluded country. that is, you know, one of the absolute sense of pieces of american hegemony in the middle east and indeed in the wide world. and there we go. react has now turned its back,

i would say on washington so. so the outlook is i would have thought yes favorable to russia. but as i say, we've got a long way to go then the fact there is no end in sight from the western point of view, nor indeed from the russian point of view. because as we, as we set into the question, the russians have lost all confidence or confidence in the western leadership. and they, they are unlikely i think, to sign in this thing with these people for a very, very long time to come. you know, and matthew real quickly here, it really, it seems to me that the west is digging its own grave. and it's all because of ideology and greed a 32nd samantha, go see. yeah. 30 seconds. uh no, no, i couldn't agree with anything. with that, i couldn't agree more as what genre said um, no indeed the b b. i don't think that there is enough community existent in the, the technocratic a lead of the west right now, that the, i think there does need to be a sort of truck of reality slamming into the zeitgeist of the governing class,

which is coming on fast. i think the economic collapse is going to be that, that physical slab of reality, which will then force a crisis whereby feed people are, are going to be forced to deal with the, the consequence of believing and stupid and wrong, and corrupt ideas for too many decades well, no matter what, i have a prediction here, i don't care what year it happens. but you know what? they'll get to say it was trump's fault. that's the trump and russia, you know, whatever combination. thank you gentlemen. fascinating conversation. want to take my guess in paris and in montreal, i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at archie. so you next time, remember, cross talk was the

a, the same wrong. just don't have to shape out the application. and engagement equals the trail. when so many find themselves will depart, we choose to look so common ground,

the bedroom. those will be always believe that life of a full 2nd that all the is ups and downs india. before the british was the richest nation with the highest gdc in the word and wide of the 100 years of british, truly bring it to a dis below of some 50. it's an acting the late 30. it's bank in the of us going deeper party. they had no right to take my property. my, i don't, my god, we went through all of our big spaces. i was see could spaces off of san angelo wild and keep pointed out these pieces. in fact, the word lute also is like in the wood, which is now closer to the english,

the big city, so quite selling lead. even the heating, the word has been looted into the english lexical. the russian states never see as tight as i'm one of the most sense community best ingles also set up the standard assistance must be the one else holes. question about this, even though we will then in the european union, the kremlin machine, the state on the russians cruising and split the smooth net keeping our video agency, roughly all the band on youtube. the service was for the question,

did you say even twist, which is the a ukrainian drone, reportedly priced into a building in the russian city of personal docs on friday morning, local authorities today, no one was injured in the incidents us criticizes the un for meeting a russian representative on children's rights wanted by the international criminal sports in spite washington itself, not recognizing the global organizations mandate when it comes to its own activities. also ahead. how many crimes at vio, county equipment that didn't get up. many clubs have everyone else.