on the phone, welcome to well, the part over the last couple of months, media coverage of the conflicting ukraine has been dominated by their folks and the furious of keys counter offensive, which is meant to deliver. if not, the police told them humiliating and now below to russia and force it to retreat. while these possibilities heres will be dismissed and moscow does on an old soul of 4. and i'll put you all from for both sides to cut the losses and trade a good war for a bad piece. well, to discuss that, i'm now joined by what silly caution director of the center for comprehensive

european and international studies of the higher school of economics. and most cool . it's a question. it's a great on a great pleasure to talk to thank you very much for your time. thank you for having me. now you rode before that. what's going on in your crate and right now is not just a conflict between the russian, the west on the territory of ukraine, or over the church, true of your grain, but it's a conflict in which you grant itself has been turned into a weapon by washington. the entire nation, weaponized for geo political purposes. isn't it also true for russia didn't have to objectify its neighbor in order to defend its own security. and basically, what russia has been doing, and to a relatively recent time rush, i was trying to influence the ukraine in all it takes in that way, which will prevent these developments. russia tried to the a, use

a story clear, rushing, mostly, tried to use economics tools in the relatively primitive way to create the economic incentives for the upgrade. and so, leads to work with russia. and the goal was never the undermining the ukranian state hold. russia have uh never even dreamed about uh, taking training in before to 1014. then there proves for that, for example, uh, throughout the thousands rush it has been building a huge naval base. new york near never ceased spending billions of dollars on that. and the naval base was supposed to house the black sea fleets uh after its uh, after a, it will be withdraw him from cray me in to 1017. i run a cli, these base for senior shed. exactly, because $1014.00 mister discussion i,

i'm sure the opponents of these thesis would tell you that an operation of the scale of premier is impossible to pull on the when you kind of just wake up and decide that you're going to do it. it means it requires certain preparation. uh there was of cause contingency blending. uh, the possibility of disability ation awfully. ukraine was always taking into account your train has experienced 1st uh cool being to 1004 and uh, that was the 1st lake of lyle and turn in ukrainian history. which was followed by periods of uh, economic and political instability. again, uh, one should remember that the best p, it's even history of the post. soviet to train was the beaten between us

199 to 9 in to 1003 economic gdp girls in to 1003 was above 11 percent. ukraine was growing this year uh with the same speed as china, uh, in uh, to $1004.00, immediately after the orangery of allusion, economic development has abruptly stopped. as result, ukraine has never been able to reach per capita g d p. a level of 1992, you wrote something that was touched me deeply. uh you said that the biggest, the most costly mistake of the russian leadership and the russian and elliptical community was the failures to understand the shift in social attitudes in ukraine,

attitudes 1st and foremost towards russia. why do you think moscow followed this old ration out of, you know, that's develop mutually beneficial economic ties pushed along. why was it blind to these links a trip? yeah, uh, basically, uh, russian leadership freshman state failed to set up an inadequate system of morning storing. and researching the former soviet states after the collapse of the soviet union. even now, russia has more research here studying late in america, and the sub saharan africa, then, uh, both the soviet states. so the russian understanding of the political processes in, in, in these countries was never deep or they could get

a lot of visa self information. a lot of the may be some intelligence data, but there was no one who could really process this and spilled this put together. uh, so the, the codes, the use, the economic tools but completely means understood the situation in society and the situation in the ukrainian political leads. they were just dealing with a certain segers which they can see there to be like good partners. try to create economic incentives for the ukrainian states in general. uh, usually 1990 sent to thousands of the this was through a cheap natural gas and providing a privileged access to certain uh,

parts of the russian or no market. and basically, only after it became apparent that these hold for policy was complete for a complete sailor. they started at the very slowly to change their approach. and can i connect stories here? i ask uh, i think what you're talking about is one of the reasons why the original position in ukraine teams as such a huge stroke 1st and foremost to the russians. but surely, the decision makers, again, in the kremlin or in kiff and washington, have to prepare for something like this. you cannot launch a military operation, or let's use, you know, the vernacular of the people, the war on the, when you kind of do it over night. when do you think this decision about the events ability of the conflict was ration moscow in cave and in washington? well, we'll have a direct statement from ukrainian side from the,

from the start, but the lex who said that the, the king, the conclusion that war will be negligible in the end of 2019 when norm on the, for my son, it's uh, which happened. they believes in various has been that then sailor preparations were conducted through them before that. and if you look at the statements by some ukranian political figures like former counselor to the presidential administration of presidency landscape, mr. i just spoke with she i believe gave interview about in, in the video for in the $1019.00 as well. so that was probably already a point of not no return. when they decide that for themselves, i think the decision was independent or was it the and i believe i believe it was

discussed with the west tent. agreed that i believe at this point and distilled that there will be war. and that, that time they probably were actively preparing their own operation of taking back then. yeah, it's kind of a little balanced people's republics and probably launching offensive to cray me the russians, the, i believe on the students that the board will be negligible. it'd be later. so there, there was growing, concerned about the possibility of war, but they believe the point of no return bus for russia was passed in early, think the one and then a bill to in good thing to one we could see massive exercises, even after those exercises, you mentioned, and i think we can also see from the orders to a russian industry that the,

you know, they, they cited manufacturing sit in the military and hardware and equipment that it was coming, but still put it in by didn't had the final meeting one and one meeting in summer of 2021 i suppose into trying to reach some of the last minute compromise. do you think it was mostly a p remove or russia genuinely believed that some sort of compromise with the west with the ukrainians was possible. there were hopes, certainly that some sort of compromise will be possible, but the helps or not to find because russians, united states have a history of assignments and negotiations which contain it for sometimes look promising. but let them do nowhere. uh, what they heard from the russian official else about the assignment, the assignments itself was quite good. then the race certain hopes and there were

agreements to work on the differences of the 2 countries. but the what followed next was completely different. so uh uh, what was said by president biden, during the assignment has nothing to do with the actual activities of the american government agencies after wards. it's not clear. uh, was it in the end of this way or um, was it some kind of sabbath dash by the see shows, we know that president biden, or it's like some singularity with president yeltsin of late ninety's. he can more of having the limited amount of time every day. and i believe he spends like 40 percent of his presidency on vacation. so the property,

there's limits at the amount of issues he can track has been short the member respond. yeah, he can directly come through. busy and that means that huge number of decisions are being taken without his direct participation. probably that's the explanation. so uh yeah, that the probably the time was genuine. probably one explanation could be that there's lack of unity in the us administration. some people wanted to, to, to, to achieve that compromise. some people wanted to so swift victory so that, that's the result we have. okay, mr cushion, we have to take a very short break right now, but we'll, we'll be back in just a few moments statement. the

so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy even foundation, let it be an arms race based on all sides. very dramatic. i'm going to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very create ticket of time. time to sit down and talk acceptance. and i'm here to plan with you. whatever you do. do not watch with my new shells. seriously. why watch something that's so different. whitelisted old opinions that he won't get anywhere else. welcome to please or do you have the state department to see i a weapons, bankers, multi 1000000000 dollar corporations. choose your facts for you. go ahead. change

and whatever you do. don't marshall stay main street because i'm probably going to make you uncomfortable. my show is called direction. but again, you probably don't want to watch it because it might just change the way you the 2 of the parts with pressing the cushion director of the center for comprehensive european and the international studies. the higher school of economics and must go mr cushion before the break, we were talking about the fact that the preparations for this call site for us in the works for several years prior to russia's declaring the beginning of its military operation. and you wrote that it was visible in the way you created was being supplied with reference. and one very interesting point you mention is that

it primarily receive communications and surveillance equipment. that equipment that you know, the technology of which was somewhat obsolete and outdated. but there was, did not supply ukraine with heavy armaments with tags. that's kind of thing. i can anything be derived from that fact, can we judge about the rationale of the west, how they saw the conflict of these conflict prior to its development? okay, so basically ukraine has inherited from the soviet era. an absolutely huge uh, stop file suppliers, weapons including some of the very costly ones, drain deed, explore to a lot of that weapons, but even the ins and 3, which remained, was absolutely huge. the we could see that during this war, ukraine was fighting a high and density war for more than the year using the old soviet

stopped by all, for example, surface the air messiah. so just to emphasize that point, do you believe that this continued classes from 2014 in don't boss for a sort of pre used for all sides to see what, what the next conflict is going to be like? no, they couldn't see that everyone failed to predict the exact scale. so uh, there was the, i believe that the west, the expected to ukraine to be able, uh to uh, fight, using that existing stuff. file of heavy weapons which would be improved to modern lines, modernized bloss, the new western supplies of communication survey ins, reconnaissance equipment,

blast supply of some modern light weapons. and that would be enough to sustain ukraine for the, for the war. because the, the west or next, the war against russia, because the western expectation was that pressure will be distemper, liked by extreme sanctions and the military losses. and if you look at the western statements during the 1st months um for you constantly see the statements that every single will be decide within the next 10 days. everything will be decided up into the next couple of weeks, basically. uh, there was a, not an expectation that the russia will be able to continue the war. uh for uh like longer than a for a period of time longer than probably couple of months may be, well, it makes it was able to sustain the war effort as long as you agree. yes. so uh and

ukraine will be the rest of it will just stop the operation. ukraine will didn't match. the story is then the goal of fresh and strategic need to be achieved by the wes this way. well, what an optimistic scenario, and this is, you know, the 1st time that the americans played it out because the american russian at war has been played out several times. and i've gotten this done in the rack to some extent in syria. they declare a major operation, the ability to intervene anywhere at any time which followed by an overreach, exhaustion lost of interest, and then um, you know, it less than on there who do you see it retrieved? do you think the same will happen in ukraine? i believe what will happen inevitably, it doesn't mean that the russia will be able to achieve all of its, um,

uh, initial goals. but the key goal of the united states was inflicting as 30 j defeat on the russia. and that was supposed to be achieved by internal disability ation afresh. so basically, the most important for from this war was not in ukraine, but inside the for asha, it was the state of the russian economy and the state of the russian society. and this is what the russian government was focused on for the 1st several months. so for how to survive during the sanctions and that russia managed to do remarkably well. so the into, into the, into 2 variables is very limited. g to be decline, like about 3 percent. the industrial production was basically stable

of the budget situation and it was basically stable, very limited budget deficit us so it was just shown that russia will be able to sustain this for economically for years. many of russian analysts believe that the war of attrition is still in the us as best interest to allow lowering brushing ukraine to bleed and the we can while the united states supposedly stays above the clash and benefits from it all. given what you just mentioned, the years budget, there are pressures, election rivalry. do you think the current administration is still benefiting politically from variously supporting ukraine on one painting, these open confrontation with right. i don't believe they are benefiting from. they sent. they're also looking for ways solid the for the situation or they also need a friend of what's, what's happened these knots, uh and us political success. oh,

although they are claiming otherwise. yes. the deed leads to strengthening of uh, us influence in europe about us influence on european affairs has been growing anyway. for a long time. however, the united states are facing a major arms race and major rivalry with china. and china is gonna be much stronger. an opponent, even in purely military field, then soviet union could ever hope to be the reason the simple, if you come there manufacturing value added in china, it's like it's more than united states and japan combined. even if you don't take purchasing parity into accounts, and as we could see from before doing this real full,

full scale wars, manufacturing capacity is still the key factor, which defines pretty much everything you, you are very quickly running out of ammunition of the weapons and we see that the whole western block, like 50 countries, are still struggling to adequately supply ukraine with artillery. i'm a nation and many other things and situation will be getting worse because ukraine has ran out of stuff. the bios of some types of weaponry, which were absolutely huge. for example, like you could see videos from the if last night when they probably had the fire. several dozens of very expansive surface, the air me styles in one night to trying to defend

against the russian to be silent tax. so it's, it's, it's not a victory for the united states, and there is no prospect of victory for the united states. and this war, however, uh, especially taking into account the range of 20 for presidential elections. the current administration cannot afford to lose. now mister question, we only have a few minutes left and i do want to ask about the possibility of her, however, slide or finalizing this comes. but since everybody has miscalculated, and i think it's pretty much a parent to anyone that they cannot have it all the ukrainians in their public statements, both of them have this, should greene then the human grievance against the west that they're not being supplied as they have been promised, and i think even these events can leadership now understands that they are essentially being thrown to the dogs, the united states. as you said once to disentangle the europeans, i'm not there ready to jump in and they don't have necessarily finances to either

support the ukraine or help with rebuild. and china, on the other hand, may offer something enticing to the ukrainians. do you see any chance of the sides all sides coming to a conclusion that you know, we have, we need to cut the losses now and try to look for other ways of solving it. so i believe that there might be chance for russia and the united states to start talking uh after a, after the escalation of hostilities in ukraine, which starts at the may and will probably gone for several months may be by the end of the year, both sides just understand that there's really no prospect to dramatically and dramatically improve one situation in the ukraine of costs.

it should be understood that for russia, stakes in the cranium, conflicts are much higher. and if something goes wrong, russia, we'll just additionally mobilize rush. uh, there are some minimal goals for rushing ukraine, which russia will achieve any way, no matter what. uh for the americans, the situation is different. they can not of course, a for it's some kind of mess if lose a face. they need to keep the current ukrainian regime in some form, but still the, they also might be interested at some pointing ending it. uh, that might happen probably by the end of this year. but again, we shouldn't hope too much. it's quite, we cannot exclude then absolutely uh,

or full scenario um their which of these 4 will continue for 3 for more years and the number of casualties will be and borrow out since world war 2. and that there's also a possibility. and very quickly, you described the russians goal uh, strategical as the removal of your credit as a source of press for russia's external security, internal political stability is this goal compatible with your client's existence as a sovereign state? and if so, what is the absolute minimum that the russian ukraine and ukraine beckers have to agree upon? i believe the threats of ukraine. so the russian internal stability has been removed any way because after the war of the scale that it's huge amount of human that the human dies which connect that the 2 countries are already

see the or to end their blank examples of that. the huge number of cases when even close relatives living in russia and ukraine, stop talking to each other. and uh, uh, it's clear that the 2 countries will go separate ways of, of calls to russia. for russia, there is an issue of lead the rating done boss, and of the rest, but that the parts of the zip are over here and share some regions which are not e s steel controlled by russia because that's very thoroughly integrity issue. i mean, uh, remove the removal of the ukrainian regime. i don't believe it's realistic. and so we should also understand that even if you praying will

take some obligations to be, for example, neutral. you know, the cranium, human, the losses of cause the beach not eat it. they are completely different from what this being sometimes officially said in the rest. and there, there might be absolutely shocking their reasons to believe that. and even some ukranian officials are shooting up that they, they might be bigger than anyone expects. and after that, they don't believe they need a government which will be friends with russia will be realistically possible in ukraine for, for a very long time. so the, some, some things they have already happened it's,

we have no way to change it. well on this very sobering note. mr. cushion, it's been great pleasure talking to you. thank you very much. thank you very much and thank you for watching hope to see her again on walter part the, [000:00:00;00] the,

[000:00:00;00] the, the, the, the english as a board its own of should be, you know, it's hit by repeated ukrainian shilling leading to debt that comes with the roof and cap, so it's targeted by a long range of drugs. the damage several apartment building the breaks group of nations is open to lodgement process done. so the organizations, foreign ministers at the meeting in south africa as, as much as the topic diplomats expands his african soul. in india and accidents