as is reality distorted by tell us to division with no real opinions. fixtures designed to simplify will confuse who really wants a better wills, and is it just as a chosen few. fractured images presented to this 1st? can you see through their illusion going underground? can the loan welcome to wells a part over the last couple of months? media coverage of the conflicting ukraine has been dominated by the hopes and the

fears of keys counter offensive, which is meant to deliver. if not, the police told them humiliating enough to blow to russia and force it to retreat. while this possibility is usually dismissed in moscow, doesn't at all. so o 4, and i'll put you all from for both sides to cut the losses and trade a good war for a bad piece. well, to discuss that i'm now and join by was silly caution director of the center for comprehensive european and international studies of the higher school of economics . and most cool. it's a question. it's a great on a great pleasure to talk to thank you very much for your time. thank you for having me. now you rode before that. what's going on in your craven right now is not just a conflict between russia and the west on the territory of ukraine, or over the church here of ukraine. but it's a conflict in which ukraine itself has been turned into a weapon by washington. the entire nation,

weaponized for geo political purposes. isn't it also true for russia didn't have to objectify its neighbor in order to defend its own security. and basically what russia has been doing and deal uh, relatively recent time. russia was trying to influence the ukraine in politics in the way, which would prevent these developments. russia tried to or uh, use historically rushing mostly tried to use economic tools in the relatively primitive way to create the economic incentives for the ukranian. so leads to work with russia, and the goal was never the undermining the ukrainian state hold. russia have uh never even dreamed about uh, taking cray me and before to 1014. then there proofs for that. for example, uh,

throughout the thousands rush it has been building a huge naval base. new york near never ceased spending billions of dollars on that. and the naval base was supposed to house the black sea fleets uh after its uh, after 8, it will be withdrawn from cray. me in to 1017. i run. it leads these base for senior shed. exactly because $1014.00 mission discretion, i'm sure the opponents of these thesis would tell you that an operation of the scale of premier is impossible to pull on the when you kind of just wake up and decide that you're going to do it. it means it requires certain preparation. uh there was of course, contingency planning. uh, the possibility of disabilities ation awfully. ukraine was always taking into

account your train has experienced 1st uh cool being to 1004. and uh, that was the 1st like as while and turn in ukraine in history. uh, which was followed by bits of uh, economic and political instability. again, uh, one should remember is that the best p, it's even a history of to the post soviet ukraine was the beaton between us. 199292003 economic g. b girls in to $1003.00 was above 11 percent. ukraine was drawing this year with the same speed as china in the $1004.00 immediately after the orange theory of aleutian, economic development has abruptly stopped. as result,

ukraine has never been able to reach per capita g d p. a level of 1992. you wrote something that, um, touched me deeply. uh you said that the biggest, the most costly mistake of the russian leadership and the russian and elliptical community was the failures to understand the shift in social attitudes in ukraine, attitudes, 1st and foremost towards russia. why do you think moscow followed this old ration out of, you know, let's develop a mutually beneficial economic ties for so long. why was it blind to these links a trip? yeah, uh basically, uh, russian leadership freshman state failed to set up another good system of morning storing and researching the former soviet states after the

collapse of the soviet union. even now russia has more research here studying late in america, and the sub saharan africa. then uh, both the soviet states, so uh, russian understanding of the political processes in, in, in these countries was never deep. they could get a lot of visa self information. a lot of the may be some intelligence data, but there was no one who could really process this and put this together. uh, so the, the codes, the use, the economics tools but completely means understood the situation in society

and the situation in the ukrainian political leads. they were just dealing with a certain segers which they can see there to be like good partners. try to create economic incentives for the ukrainian states in general. uh, usually 1990 sent the thousands that the this was through cheap natural gas and providing a privileged access to certain uh, parts of the russian or no market. and basically, only after it became apparent that these whole 4 policy was complete for a complete sailor. they started at the very slowly to change their approach. and can i connect stories here? i ask uh, i think what you're talking about is one of the reasons why the russian operation in ukraine teams as such

a huge stroke 1st and foremost to the russians. but surely, the decision makers, again, in the kremlin or in kiff and washington, have to prepare for something like this. you cannot launch in military operation. or let's use, you know, the vernacular of the people, the war on the, when you kind of do it over night. when do you think this decision about the indivisibility of the conflict was ration moscow in cave and in washington? well, we'll have a direct statement from ukranian side from the, from easter, but the lex who said that the, the king, the conclusion that war will be negligible in the end of 2019 when norm on the 4 months summits. uh, which happened they believes in various has been that then sailor preparations were conducted through them before that. and if you look at the statements by some

ukranian political figures like former counselor to the presidential administration of presidency landscape. mr. artist though interesting i believe, gave the interview about in, in that the ability of floor in the $1019.00 as well. so that was probably already a point of not no return. when they decide that for themselves, i think the decision was independent or was it the and i believe it was discussed with the west tent agreed that but i believe at this point and distilled that there will be war. and that, that time they probably were actively preparing their own operation of taking back then. yeah, it's kind of look down some people's republics and probably launching offensive to cray me the russians, the,

i believe on the students that the board will be inevitable. it'd be later. so there, there was growing, concerned about the possibility of war, but they believe the point of no return bus for russia was passed in early. thank e one and being able to inc, it, thank you one, we could see my shift exercises, even after those exercises you mentioned, and i think we can also see from the orders uh to a russian industry that the, you know, they, they started manufacturing certain uh, military uh, hardware and equipment that it was coming but still uh, put it in by then had the final meeting. uh, one of the one meeting in summer of 2021. uh, supposedly trying to reach some last minute compromise. do you think it was mostly a p r move or russia genuinely believed that some sort of compromise with the west

with the ukrainians was possible. there were hopes, certainly that some sort of compromise will be possible, but that helps or not to hide because russians, united states have a history of assignments and negotiations which contain it for sometimes look promising, but let known to nowhere uh, what i heard from the russian official else about the assignment, the assignments itself was quite good then the 3 certain hopes and there were agreements to work on the differences of the 2 countries, but the world followed next was completely different. so uh uh, what was said by president biden, during the assignment has nothing to do with the actual activities of the american

government agencies after wards. it's not clear. uh, was it in the end of this way, or was it some kind of sabbath dash by the see shows. we know that president biden, or it's like some similarity with president yeltsin of late ninety's. he can more having the limited amount of time every day. and i believe he spends like 40 percent of his presidency on vacation. so the property, there's limits at the amount of issues he can track has been short the member respond. yeah, he can directly come through. busy and that means that huge number of decisions are being taken without his direct participation. probably that's the explanation. so uh yeah, that the probably the time was genuine. probably one explanation could be that

there's lack of unity in the us administration. some people wanted to, to, to, to achieve that compromise. some people wanted to so swift victory, so that, that's the result we have. okay, mr cushion, we have to take a very short break right now, but we'll, we'll be back in just a few moments statement. the what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy from foundation. let it be an arms race is on all sides. very dramatic. only personally, i'm going to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful,

very unclear to get a time time to sit down and talk the welcome back to the parts with especially caution director of the center for comprehensive european and the international studies. the higher school of economics and must go mr cushion before the break, we were talking about the fact that the preparations for this call safe for us in the works for several years prior to russia's declaring the beginning of its military operation. and you wrote that it was visible in the way, uh, ukraine was being supplies with best friends. and one very interesting point you mentioned is that it primarily received communications and surveillance equipment.

that equipment that you know, the technology which was somewhat, that's the lead, an outdated, but there was, did not supply ukraine with heavy armaments uh, with the tags. uh, that kind of thing. um, can anything be uh, derived from that fact, can we uh, judge about the ration now of the west, how they saw the conflict, these config prior to its development. okay. so basically ukraine has inherited from the soviet era and that's absolutely huge. uh stopped by us the various weapons, including some of the very costly ones, your brain deed explore to a lot of that weapons, but even the ins and 3 which remained was absolutely huge. the liquid, see that during this war, ukraine was fighting high and density war for more than the year,

using the old soviet stop by all, for example, surface the air messiah. so just to emphasize that point, do you believe that this continued classes from 2014 in don't boss for a sort of pre used for all sides to see what, what the next conflict is going to be like? no, they couldn't see that everyone failed to predict the exact scale. so uh there was the a believes that the west, the expect it to ukraine to be able to, to uh, fight using that existing stuff. file of heavy weapons, which will be improved. mother lines modernized, bloss the new western supplies of communication survey ins, reconnaissance equipment, blast supply of some modern light weapons. and that would be enough to sustain

ukraine for the, for the war. because the, the west or next, the war against russia. because the western expectation was that pressure will be disassembled, lives by extreme sanctions, and the they meet the 3 losses. and if you look at the western statements during the 1st months um, before you constantly see the statements that every single will be decided in the next 10 days, everything will be decided in the next couple of weeks basically. uh there was um, an expectation that the brochure will be able to continue the war. uh uh for uh, like longer than a for period of time longer than probably couple of months may be. well, it basically was able to sustain the war effort as long as you agree. yes. so uh

and the ukraine will the rest of it will just stop the operation ukraine will them actually daughter is then the goal of fresh and strategic defeat will be achieved by the less the sway. well, what an optimistic scenario, and this is all the 1st time that the americans played it out because the american rationale at moore has been played out several times. and i've gotten this done in a rack to some extent in syria. they declare a major operation. the ability to intervene anywhere at any time which followed by an overreach, exhaustion lost of interest, and then um, you know it less than on there. who do you see it retreat? do you think the same will happen in ukraine? i believe it will happen. inevitably. it doesn't mean that the russian will be able to achieve all of its, um, uh, initial goals. but the key goal of the united states was

inflicting as 30 j defeat on russia. and that was supposed to be achieved by internal disability ation afresh. so basically, the most important for from this war was not in ukraine, but inside the fresh a, it was the state of the russian economy and the state of the russian society. and this is what the russian government was focused on for the 1st several months. so for how to survive during the sanctions and that russia managed to do remarkably well. so there in 2022, there was a limited g to be decline. like about 3 percent. the industrial production was basically stable of the budget situation. it was basically stable,

very limited budget deficit us so it was just shown that russia will be able to sustain this for economically for years. many of russian analysts believe that the war of attrition is still in the us as best interest to allow lowering brushing your brain to bleed and the we can while the united states supposedly stays above the clash and benefits from it all. given what you just mentioned, the years budget, there are pressures, election rivalry. do you think the current administration is still benefiting politically from variously supporting ukraine on one painting, these opened confrontation with right. i, i don't believe they are benefiting from they sent. they're also looking for ways solid of the situation or they also need a friend of what's, what's happened. there's not, uh, a us political success. oh, although they are claiming otherwise. yes,

the deed leads to strengthening of, uh, us influence in europe. and about us influence on european affairs has been growing any way for a long time. however, the united states are facing a major arms race and major rivalry with china. and china is going to be much stronger, an opponent, even in purely military field. then soviet union could ever hope to be the reason that simple, if you attempt their manufacturing value added in china, it's like it's more than united states and japan combined. even if you don't take purchasing parity into account. and as we could see from before doing these real full, full scale wars,

manufacturing capacity is still the key factor, which defines pretty much everything you, you are very quickly running out of ammunition of the weapons. and we see that the whole western block, like 50 countries, are still struggling to adequately supply ukraine with artillery. i'm a nation and many other things and situation will be getting worse because ukraine has ran out of stuff. the bios of some types of weaponry which were absolutely huge. for example, like you could see videos from the last night when they probably had to fire several dozens of very expansive surface, the air me styles in one night to trying to defend against the rushing me silent tax. so it's, it's, it's not

a victory for the united states, and there is no prospect of victory for the united states. and this war, however, uh, especially taking into account design for 20 for presidential elections. the current administration cannot afford to lose. now, mr. cushion, we only have a few minutes left and i, i do want to ask about the possibility of her, however, slide or finalizing this comes. but since everybody has miscalculated, and i think it's pretty much a parent to anyone that they cannot have it all the ukrainians in their public statements. both of them have this should greene and the human grievance against the west that they're not being supplied as they have been promised. and i think even these events can leadership now understands that they are essentially being thrown to the dogs, the united states, as your said once to disentangle the europeans, i'm not ready to jump in and they don't have necessarily finances to either support

the ukraine or help with rebuild and china, on the other hand, may offer something enticing to the ukrainians. do you see any chance of the sides all sides coming to a conclusion that you know, we have, we need to cut the losses now and try to look for other ways of solving it. so i believe that there might be chance for russia and the united states to start talking uh after a, after the escalation of hostilities in ukraine, which starts at the may and will probably gone for several months may be by the end of the year, both sides just understand that there's really no prospect to dramatically and to dramatically improve one situation in the ukraine of cos.

it should be understood that for russia stakes in the cranium, conflicts are much higher. and if something goes wrong, russia, we'll just additionally mobilize rush. uh, there are some minimal goals for russia and ukraine, which is russia will achieve any way no matter what. uh for them a comes to the situation is different. they can not of course, a for it's some kind of mess if lose a face. they need to keep the current ukrainian regime in some form, but still the, they also might be interested at some pointing ending it. uh, that might happen probably by the end of the lease here. but the, again, we shouldn't hold too much. it's quite, we cannot exclude then absolutely uh, or full scenario under which this war will continue for 3 for more years. and the

number of casualties will be and borrow out since world war 2. and that there's also a possibility. and very quickly, you described the russians goal uh, strategical as the removal of your credit as a source of press for russia's external security, internal political stability is this goal compatible with your client's existence as a sovereign state? and if so, what is the absolute minimum that the russian ukraine and ukraine beckers have to agree upon? i believe the threats of ukraine till the russian internal stability has been removed anyway because after the war of the scale that a huge amount of human that the human dice which connect that the 2 countries are already see the or to end their blank examples of that the

huge number of cases when even close relatives living in russia and ukraine, stop talking to each other. and uh, uh, it is clear that the 2 countries will go separate ways of, of course, russia, for russia. there is an issue of lead the rating done boss and of the rest, but that the parts of the zip are over here and share some regions which are not eaten steel controlled by russia. because that's very thoroughly integrity issue re, uh, remove the removal of the ukrainian regime. i don't believe it's realistic. and so we should also understand that even if you praying will take some obligations to be, for example,

neutral. you know, the ukrainian human, the losses of cost the beach not eat it. they are completely different from what this being sometimes officially said in the rest. and there, there might be absolutely shocking their reasons to believe that. and even some ukranian officials are shooting at that they, they might be bigger than anyone expects. and after that, they don't believe they need a government which will be friends with russia will be realistically possible in ukraine for, for very long time. so the, some, some things they have already happened it's, we have no way to change it. well on this. very sobering note that mr. caution,

it's been great pleasure talking to you. thank you very much. thank you very much and thank you for watching hope to see her again on walter part the the, [000:00:00;00]

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