tried to uh, use historically, russian mostly tried to use economic tools in the relatively primitive way to create the economic incentives for the ukranian. so leads to work with russia. and the goal was never the undermining the ukrainian state hold. russia have uh never even dreamed about uh, taking cray me and before to 1014. then there proves for that, for example, throughout the thousands rush it has been building a huge naval base. new york near never ceased spending billions of dollars on that. and the naval base was supposed to house the black sea fleets after it's a f 3. it will be withdraw him from crania in to 1000. and 17. i run. it leads

these base for senior shed. exactly with a 1014 mission discussion. i'm sure the opponents of these thesis would tell you that an operation of the scale of premier is impossible to pull on the when you kind of just wake up and decide that you're going to do it if need. it requires certain preparation. uh, there was of course, contingency planning. uh the possibility of disabilities ation awfully. ukraine was always taking into account your train has experienced 1st uh cool in to 1004. and uh, that was the 1st like a violent turn in ukraine in history, which was followed by periods of uh, economic and political instability. again, uh, one should remember is that the best, the just even

a history of the post soviet ukraine was the beaton between us. 199292003 economic g. b girls in to $1003.00 was above 11 percent. ukraine was drawing this year uh with the same speed as china, uh, in uh, 2004, immediately after the orangery of allusion, economic development has abruptly stopped. as result, ukraine has never been able to reach per capita g d p. a level of 1992. you wrote something that um, touched me deeply. uh you said that the biggest, the most costly mistake of the russian leadership and the russian and elliptical community was the failures to understand the shift in social attitudes in ukraine,

attitudes, 1st and foremost towards russia. why do you think moscow followed this old ration out of, you know, let's develop a mutually beneficial economic ties for so long. why was it blind to these links a trip? yeah, uh, basically, uh, russian leadership freshman state failed to set up an inadequate system of morning storing and researching the former soviet states after the collapse of the soviet union. even now russia has more research here studying late in america, and the sub saharan africa. then uh, both the soviet states, so uh, russian understanding of the political processes in, in,

in these countries was never deep. they could get a lot of visa stuff, information. a lot of the may be some intelligence data, but there was no one who could really process this and put this together. uh, so the, the codes, the use, the economic tools but completely means on the still, the situation in society. and the situation in the ukrainian political elites. they were just dealing with a certain segers which they can see there to be like good partners. try to create economic incentives for the ukrainian states in general. usually 1990 sent to thousands of the this was through a cheap natural gas and providing spray village access to certain

uh, parts of the russian. and there are no market. and basically, only after it became apparent that this whole 4 policy was complete for a complete sailor. they started at the very slowly to change their approach. and can i, can i still piece here? i ask uh, i think what you're talking about is one of the reasons why the original position and you create a teams as such a huge stroke. first and foremost from the russians. but surely, the decision makers, again, in the kremlin or in kiff and washington, have to prepare for something like this. you cannot launch in military operation. or let's use, you know, the vernacular of the people, the war on the, when you kind of do it over a night. when do you think this decision about the indivisibility of the conflict was ration moscow in kiff and in washington?

well, we have a direct statement from ukrainian side from the, from mr. deluxe, who said that the, the king, the conclusion that war will be negligible in the end of 2019 when norm on the, for my son, it's uh, which happened. they believed in various has been that then sailor preparations were conducted through them before that. and if you look at the statements by some ukranian political figures like former counselor to the presidential administration of presidents or landscape mr. or story she, i believe gave the interview about the in that the ability or for in the $1019.00 as well. so that was probably already a point of no, no return. when they decide that for themselves, i think the decision was independent or was it the and i believe i believe it was

discussed with the west and agreed that but i believe at this point, they understood that there will be war and that that time they probably were actively preparing their own operation of taking back then. yeah, it's kind of a little down. so people's republics and probably launching offensive to cray me the russians, the, i believe on the students that the board will be inevitable and be later. so there, there was growing, concerned about the possibility of war, but they believe the point of no return bus for russia was passed in early thank e one. and in a be able to, in good thing to on we could see massive exercises, even after those exercises. you mentioned. and i think we can also see from the

orders uh to a russian industry that the, you know, they, they started manufacturing sudden, uh, military uh, hardware and equipment that it was coming, but still uh, put it in by then had that final meeting. uh, one of the one meeting in summer of 2021 and supposedly trying to reach some of the last minute compromise. do you think it was mostly a p r move or russia genuinely believed that some sort of compromise with the west with the ukrainians was possible. there were hopes, certainly that some sort of compromise will be possible, but that helps or not to hide because russians, united states have a history of assignments and negotiations which contain it for sometimes look promising, but let known to nowhere uh, what i heard from the russian official, it's about the assignment,

the assignments itself was quite good. and the 3 certain hopes and there were agreements the work on the differences of the 2 countries. but the what followed next was completely different. so uh uh, what was said by president by them during the assignment, had nothing to do with the actual activities of the american government agencies after wards. it's not clear. uh was it in the end of this way or um, was it some kind of sabbath dash by the see shows. we know that president biden, it's like some similarity with president yeltsin of late ninety's. he can more having the limited amount of time every day. and i believe he spends like 40 percent of his presidency on vacation. so the property,

there's limits at the amount of issues he can track has been short the member respond. yeah, he can directly come to. busy busy and that means that huge number of decisions are being taken without his direct participation. probably that's the explanation. so uh yeah, that the probably the time was genuine. probably one explanation would be that there's lack of unity in the us administration. some people wanted to, to, to, to achieve that compromise. some people wanted to so swift victory, so that, that's the result we have. okay, mr. caution, we have to take a very short break right now, but we'll, we'll be back in just a few moments statement. the, the, the,

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[000:00:00;00] the, [000:00:00;00] the welcome back to the parts with especially caution director of the center for comprehensive european and the international studies of the higher school of economics. and must go to mr. cushion before the break. we were talking about the fact that the preparations for this conflict for us in the works for several years prior to russia's declaring the beginning of its military operation. and you wrote

that it was visible in the way you created was being supplies with reference. and one very interesting point you mention is that it's primarily receive communications and surveillance equipment. that equipment that you know, the technology of which was somewhat obsolete and outdated, but there was, did not supply ukraine with heavy armaments uh, with the tags. uh, that kind of thing. um, can anything be uh, derived from that fact, can we uh, judge about the rationale of the west, how they saw the conflict of these conflict prior to its development. okay, so basically ukraine has inherited from the soviet era and absolutely huge uh, stockpiles the various weapons including some of the very costly ones, your brain deed explore to a lot of that weapons. but even the ins and 3,

which remained, was absolutely huge. uh, we could see that during this war, ukraine was fighting a high intensity war for more than the year using the old soviet stock file, or for example, surface the air messiah. so just to emphasize that point, do you believe that this continued classes from 2014 in don't boss for it, a sort of pre used for all sides to see what, what the next conflict is gonna be like? no, they couldn't see that. everyone failed to predict the exact scale. so uh, there was the, i believe that the west, the expect it to ukraine to be able, uh, to uh, fight, using that existing stuff. file of heavy weapons which would be improved to modern

lines, modernized bloss, the new western supplies of communication survey ins, reconnaissance equipment, blast supply of some modern light weapons. and that would be enough to sustain ukraine for the, for the war. because the, the west or next, the war against russia, because the western expectation was that pressure will be distemper, liked by extreme sanctions and the military losses. and if you look at the western statements during the 1st months um for you constantly see the statements that every single will be decided in the next 10 days . everything will be decided within the next couple of weeks, basically. uh there was, um, not an expectation that the russia wouldn't be able to continue the war.

uh for like longer than a, for a period of time longer than probably a couple of months may be. well, it makes it was able to sustain the board efforts as long as you agree. yes. so and the ukraine will, the rest of it will just stop the ration ukraine? will them actually thought is then the goal of freshman strategic? it will be achieved by the rest the sway. well, what an optimistic scenario, and this is the 1st time that the americans played it out because the american russian at war has been played out several times. and i've got his time in the rack to some extent in syria. they declare a major operation, the ability to intervene anywhere at any time which followed by an overreach, exhaustion lost of interest. and then um, you know, it less than the owner of the see it retreat. do you think the same will happen in ukraine? i believe what will happen inevitably,

it doesn't mean that the russia will be able to achieve all of its, um, uh, initial goals. but the key goal of the united states was inflicting as 30 j defeat on russia. and that was supposed to be achieved by internal disability ation afresh. so basically, the most important for from this war was not in ukraine, but inside the fresh a, it was the state of the russian economy and the state of the russian society. and this is what the russian government was focused on for the 1st several months. so for how to survive during the sanctions and that russia managed to do remarkably well. so the into, into the, into,

to there was very limited g to be decline, like about 3 percent. the industrial production was basically stable. so the budget situation was basically stable, very limited budget deficit us. so it was just shown that russia will be able to sustain this for economically for years. many of russian analysts believe that the war of attrition is still in the us as best interest to allow lowering brushing your brain to bleed and the we can while the united states supposedly stays above the clash and benefits from adult. given what you just mentioned, the years budget, there are pressures, election rivalry. do you think the current administration is still benefiting politically from variously supporting ukraine, on one painting, these open confrontation with right. i, i don't believe they are benefiting from. they sent. they're also looking for race

out of the situation, or they also need a friend of what's, what's happened these knots, uh and us political success. oh, although they are claiming otherwise. yes. that the deed leads to strengthening of uh us seems lens in europe. but us seems lens on european affairs has been growing any way. uh for a long time. however, uh, united states are facing major arms race and major rivalry with china. and china is gonna be much stronger, an opponent, even in purely military field dense soviet union could ever hope to be the reason that simple, if you attempt their manufacturing value added in china,

it's like it's more than united states and japan combined. even if you don't take purchasing parity into account, and as we could see from this war, doing these real full, full scale wars, manufacturing capacity is still the key factor, which defines pretty much everything you, you are very quickly running out of ammunition of the weapons and we see that the whole western block, like 50 countries, are still struggling to adequately supply ukraine with artillery. i'm a nation and many other things and situation will be getting worse because ukraine has ran out of stuff file. so some types of weaponry which were absolutely huge, for example, like you could see videos from the last night when they probably had to fire

several dozens of very expansive surface to air me styles in one night to trying to defend against the russian to be silent. tax, so it's, it's, it's not a victory for the united states, and there is no prospect of victory for the united states. and this war, however, uh, especially taking into account design 224 presidential elections. the current administration cannot afford to lose. now, mr. cushion we only have a few minutes left and i, i do want to ask about the possibility of her, however, slide or finalizing this comes. but since everybody has miscalculated, and i think it's pretty much apparent to anyone that they cannot have it all the ukrainians in their public statements off, i'm have these should greene and the human a grievance against the west that they're not being supplied as they have been promised, and i think even these events can leadership now understands that they are essentially

being thrown into the dogs, the united states, as your said once to just entangle the europeans. i'm not ready to jump in and they don't have necessarily finances to either support to ukraine. or how to rebuild the china, on the other hand, may offer something enticing to the ukrainians. do you see any chance of the sides all sides coming to a conclusion that you know, we have, we need to cut the losses now and try to look for other ways of solving it. so i believe that there might be chance for russia and the united states to start talking uh after and after the escalation of hostilities in ukraine, which starts at the may and will probably gone for several months,

may be by the end of the year, both sides just understand that there's really no prospect to dramatically and dramatically improve one situation in the ukraine of costs. it should be understood that for russia, stakes in the cranium, conflicts are much higher. and if something goes wrong, russia, we'll just additionally mobilize rush, the, there are some minimal goals for russia and ukraine, which russia will achieve annually. no matter what. uh for them, a comes to the situation is different. they can not, of course, a for it's some kind of mess if lose a face. they need to keep the current to ukrainian regime in some form. but still the, they also might be interested at some pointing ending it. uh, that might happen probably by the end of the lease here, but the again,

we shouldn't hold too much. it's quite, we cannot exclude then absolutely uh, or full scenario under which this war will continue for 3 for more years. and the number of casualties will be and borrow out since world war 2. and that there's also a possibility. and very quickly, you described the russians goal uh, strategical as the removal of ukraine, as a source of press for russia's external security, internal political stability is this goal compatible with ukraine's existence as a sovereign state. and if so, what is the absolute minimum that the russian ukraine and ukraine beckers have to agree upon? i believe the threats of ukraine till the russian internal stability has been removed anyway, because after the war of the scale that

a huge amount of human that the human dies which connect the, the 2 countries are already see the are the ends, their blank examples of that the huge number of cases when even close relatives living in russia and ukraine, stop talking to each other. and uh, uh, it is clear that the 2 countries will go separate ways of, of cost to russia. for russia, there is an issue of lead the rating done boss, and of the rest, but that the parts of this up are always you and share some regions which are not eaten steel controlled by russia because that's territorial integrity issue

re, uh, remove the removal of the ukrainian regime by a don't believe it's realistic. and so we should also understand that even if you crane will take some obligations to be for example, new troll. you know that your premium human, the losses of cause the beach not eat it. they are completely different from what is being sometimes officially said to me the rest and there for there might be absolutely shocking their reasons to believe that. and even some ukrainian officials are shooting at that they, they might be bigger than anyone expects. and after that, i don't believe they need a government which will be friendly in russia,

will be realistically possible in ukraine for, for a very long time. so the, some, some things they haven't already happened it's, we have no way to change it. well, on this very sobering note, the mr. cushion has been great pleasure talking to you. thank you very much. thank you very much. and thank you for watching hope to see her again on walter part the the, [000:00:00;00]

the most reason is munoz curtis. imagine if you speak russian, keep your voice down while i was in about. so we met about that i know for us for us to. so don't put your human symbols on display especially on space to guide. so you, the boss, don't talk to strangers, the void noisy gatherings and was wondering for sure me what she gave way and get them in. and what are she's eating your colleagues and perhaps also your friends. think your guilty because your russian let you know the boom. so what can i do them about my and see if it's all i'd be glad to, which is the team that does put teaching styles is be

a good fit in that event of buying it. so the exception to buy the specific silver shortly concerning the what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy from foundation, let it be an arms race based on authenticity. very dramatic. the only personally, i'm going to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very critical time time to sit down and talk the russian states never as tight as i'm sort of the most sense community not getting hold of all sun set up. the same assistance

must be the one else calls question about this, even though we will then in the european union, the print media mission, the state on russia rooting and split the r t spoke neck, keeping our video agency roughly all the band on youtube tv services what question did you say you requested a the, the precious border ton of to beacon new is repeatedly hit by you printing and selling, leaving to debt that comes as russian, the brushing capital is targeted by long range for owns that damage. several