they also need a friend of what's, what's happened these knots, uh and us political success. oh, although they are claiming otherwise. yes, the deed leads to strengthening of the us influence in europe. but us influence on european affairs has been growing anyway for a long time. however, the united states are facing a major arms race and major rivalry with china. and china is going to be much stronger. an opponent, even in purely military field dense soviet union could ever hope to be. the reason that simple, if you attempt their manufacturing value added in china, it's like it's more than united states and japan combined. even if you don't take

purchasing parity into account. and as we could see from these for doing these real full, full scale wars, manufacturing capacity is still the key factor, which defines pretty much everything you, you are very quickly running out of ammunition of the weapons. and we see that the whole western block, like 50 countries, are still struggling to adequately supply ukraine with artillery. i'm a nation and many other things and situation will be getting worse because ukraine has ran out of stuff file. so some types of flapping re, which were absolutely huge, for example, like you could see videos from key if last night when they probably had to fire several dozens of very expansive surface to air me styles in one night

to trying to defend against the brushing, to be silent tax, so it's, it's, it's not a victory for the united states, and there is no prospect of victory for the united states. and this war, however, uh, especially taking into account the bankruptcy entity for presidential elections. the current administration cannot afford to lose. now, mr. cushion, we only have a few minutes left and i, i do want to ask about the possibility of her, however slight of finalizing this comes that since everybody has miscalculated and i think it's pretty much apparent to anyone that they cannot have it all the ukrainians in their public statements off, i'm have these should greene and the human a grievance against the west that they're not being supplied as they have been promised. and i think even these events can leadership now understands that they

are essentially being thrown into the dogs, the united states, as your said once to just entangle the europeans. i'm not ready to jump in and they don't have necessarily finances to either support to ukraine or how to, to rebuild the china, on the other hand may offer something enticing to the ukrainians. do you see any chance of the sides all sides coming to a conclusion that you know, we have, we need to cut the losses now and try to look for other ways of solving it. so i believe that there might be chance for russia and the united states to start talking uh after and after the escalation of hostilities in ukraine, which started in may. and we'll probably gone for several months, may be by the end of the year, both sides just understand that there's really no prospect to dramatically

and dramatically improve one situation in the ukraine of costs. it should be understood that for russia stakes in the cranium, conflicts are much higher. and if something goes wrong, russia will just additionally mobilize rush, the, there are some minimal goals for rushing ukraine, which russia will achieve any way, no matter what. uh for them a comes to the situation is different, they can not, of cause a for it's some kind of mess if lose a face. they need to keep the current to ukrainian regime in some form. but still the, they also might be interested at some pointing ending it, uh, that might happen probably by the end of this year. but again,

we shouldn't hope too much. it's quite, we cannot exclude then absolutely or full scenario under which this war will continue for 3 for more years. and the number of casualties will be and borrow out since world war 2. and that is also a possibility. and very quickly, you described the russians goal. strategical as the removal of ukraine is a source of press for russia's external security, internal political stability is this goal compatible with ukraine's existence as a sovereign states. and if so, what is the absolute minimum that the russian ukraine and ukraine beckers have to agree upon? i believe the threats of ukraine till the russian internal stability has been removed annually because after the war of the scale that

a huge amount of human that the human dies which connect that the 2 countries are already see the are the ends, their blank examples of that the huge number of cases when even close relatives living in russia and ukraine, stop talking to each other. and uh, uh, it's clear that the 2 countries will go separate ways of, of calls to russia. for russia, there is an issue of lead the rating done boss, and of the rest, but that the parts of the zip are over here and share some regions which are not either steal controlled by russia because that's territorial integrity issue. i mean, uh, remove the removal of the ukrainian regime. i don't believe it's realistic.

and so we should also understand that even if you praying will take some obligations to be, for example, neutral. you know, the ukrainian human, the losses of cause the beach not eat it. they are completely different from what this being sometimes officially said in the rest. and there, there might be absolutely shocking their reasons to believe that. and even some ukranian officials are shooting up that they, they might be bigger than anyone expects. and after that, they don't believe they need a government which will be friendly. russia wouldn't be realistically possible in

ukraine for, for a very long time. so the, some, some things they have already happened it's, we have no way to change it. well on this. very sobering note, it's a caution. it's been great pleasure talking to you. thank you very much. thank you very much. and thank you for watching hope to see her again. on was a part of the, [000:00:00;00]

the take a fresh look around. there's a life kaleidoscopic, isn't just a shifted reality distortion by tell us to do vision with no real opinions. fixtures. design to simply the file, confused to really was a better wills and is it just as a chosen few. fractured images presented is 1st. can you see through their illusion going underground can

the hello and welcome to cross stop. are all things are considered on people about probably the most dangerous mention of nato's ukraine. proxy war on russia is the issue of escalation, washington minutes. all eyes warned moscow not to escalate while the west, because repeatedly done so. nato's indifference do escalation, which is all at peril. the discuss these issues and more. i'm joined by my guess, martin j america. she's of the lord winning journalist and commentator. and in budapest we have jordan, samuel, only he is a pod cast, read the capital which can be found on youtube and the locals are gentlemen crossed off girls in effect, that means you can jump any time you want, and i always appreciate it. all right, let's start out with georgian in budapest,

you and i've talked extensively about theories of escalation here. and it's mentioned all the time, but i don't think there's a lot of probably it's probably understood what's going on here. so just give us the, what you think is the west theory of escalation charge as well. i think the west area of the escalation is that it is convinced that russia is afraid of escalating groceries afraid of extending the will be on your brains borders and the roster is afraid of going you clear of, you know, basically using the it's ultimate weapons that means for the wes, this is a freebie, but it can do whatever it wants, is the centrally bits arrow. and it says broken down because it was a little weak and you know, about brush as much as we want. we, you know, we can ascend most sophisticated weapons to ukraine, like ukraine, uh,

use the weapons on russian territory as the u. k. foreign secretary of james cleverly, natalie named a service over here, you'll find the internet. and that's okay, because we know russia will be afraid of escalate the because i'm sure he's afraid of us rosters. afraid of going to deal with that. we only of and i'm not afraid of russia. we only allow in another afraid of escalating. and so the apple and russian knows that we're not afraid. so therefore we, we can do what we like and, and that's why it is just on the road to escalation. and everything is doing is basically rejecting any negotiation short of total russian surrender. and now is english, one of the west that mom is that a who can be brought to justice then? oh is that can be no end to this conflict until gluten is sitting behind boss at the hey. and this is just of an ongoing thing. much as a major was really of an ongoing war against the service until the last of which

over. and he was sitting behind because of the, hey, i want to talk about political escalation a little bit later, which is really good point. or what is that, what, what do you think about this? because this assumes that there's a, is a big game of bluffing. and if we were to go back to the origins of this special military operation, russian said that there would be consequences if it secure demands were not met. and there, uh, well, well, the, the, the west stop with the russians were bluffing, and the bluff was called. now i cannot disagree in any respect what george had to say here. the only problem is, is the, of the time scale it with a context here. because russia is putting up with that with a lot of this, the absolutely right, having a 3rd party attacking your country. i mean this, this extraordinary, for a great power. but the, at a certain point, i still will contend that, you know, the russians are not bluffing. and then they will use whatever means is necessary

to protect their security, just so they have a different interpretation of how about to go, how to go about doing it. but george's right, i mean, these are, the longer this period law is extended, the more over the west is in bolden and emboldening the ukrainians. martin? yeah, but that's of the right. i'm just moving to. i mean, um, how much do you want in building the cruise? i think the point of a, it's not a rush is a splost thing. i think the west is bluffing. what the west is playing a massive cru detail with this move. and i think also it's based not just on the plus, but i think it's also based on a lot of misinformation. and this information was in their own circles. i really believe that west of the leads the leaders of these countries and they, so the top bras really buying the run. now it says way too much. you never look at that and then when, when you and when you, which helped jermel this and you create everything binary. and you have

a simple site, everything, and you, you just create a black and white scenario and strip over the new. it's new courage. you're telling us to do that and there's no real scripts new from the present. the few john was out that they're actually doing this job, you know, as a starting to jo for the rest of the diesel airport. you know, like the grades. so i'm got a kids i found book and so is it leaves themselves that are actually believing this struggle more and more because, you know, it's like a rush. it only terms in one way, this escalation and as we, as we witness to know more and more as the months go past, the stakes get raised higher. and i a, because they said, well, most of the leads don't believe in this adage that went in the whole, the big, you know, now you did get in a georgias may just point about some, the, the cleverly statement, you know, it was a, it's been a week of media gas of people really put in a foot in the mountains. and then if you remember the lindsey graham comments about to the, the i'm you know, did crime even think about pulling that up by saying,

well actually, i'm also very story about, you know, the schools of thousands of you kind of sold as the, you know, dyna, not even a factor, you know, they do training just don't even factor into it that any of any recognition that tool that i was thinking about before we can be in here. and i often say on this program, i wonder what future historians will say. i'm going to show it to george right now . maybe which is future psychologists. we should be talking about, okay, the understanding the mindset of these, that the leads and in the end you premium of a leads as well. because the, what is another element of this escalation is be in everett ability to brushes defeat this as they truly believe this. and that's what makes even more dangerous. george. yeah, the, the absolutely the sponsor with that because they, they believe this. oh, roger will be defeated. we will win. and then the next question is, yes, but russia is a nuclear superpower. how is it possible that

a new visible i would just simply accept defeat? it kind of happened has never happened. um, does it when the, you know, that's the reference brother, you know, mistreated, wrapped in the rainbow encased in bought in. and then they made my whatever that say to george, they're just bad guys in bad that i still love. that's right. that's right. and then uh, the, but the issue, you know, why are they doing this like that kind of be, you know, honestly than any very easy way. because why have they gone all in or ukraine? i mean, unless you remember since 1940 between 19451991, the less was able to live with soviet presence, you know, all the way up to the brandon. but again, i mean, you know, who is country is lives on the soviet domination. that was okay. and, you know, they managed to sign all sorts of, uh, boss your far reaching agreements with the soviet union. and uh,

and it never occurred to them to uh, to provoke a conflict. but now apparently we come live with, you know, i, i do show you brand new brain must be imagine when we're ready to sacrifice tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of lives. you know, destroying our own economy is because ukraine must be in, in nature, large, you don't have isn't really, it is a spelling. and again, as, as a movie and points out the journal is no, no john was never asked why what, what is the reason, what's, what's the western interest here? why, why it's so important to us that you grain is a member of nature. yeah. and even after the illegal change of power in 2014, you know, the world, the, it was a big suspension. i mean, we, we all were living and we, you know, and we do. and then there was supposed to be a management of the prices and the dom baths, which i have to assume the russians believe the west. we now we know that was fraudulent, but even during that time it wasn't ex,

essential. no one was reaching for the button. now we are martin. yeah. and uh, you know, is accept racing a quite a pace. so we've got an important meeting that will need. so a members in a couple of weeks time and there's a huge around going on the mainland between uh, native members as the leaders of european countries. i'm an zaleski because you know you're going about 2 months where i wrote an article called them and even dumb when i come compared to michael schultz who made an offer to. so that's key to 12 piece with russia. but as an incentive, we'll give you more weapons. so it'll give you some sort of nathan membership. now he's, you know, it's if you don't stop laughing at the top, it's just an hilarious idea and it's a good, very good example of just how kristin. a moved, i'm frankly, rama missed missed jobs completely out the west coast as the west take on the

situation with russia. i've enjoyed is absolutely right. you can't really win against a nuclear superpower. but, you know, one of the where this, this situation was lensky is, had a nice things to be going a bit rogue. and he seems to be making alluded threats that, you know, if he doesn't get some sort of promise at this meeting, don't, yes. then um,