the syrian people, this is not going to lead to any, any we're all good because we could see that there was going to be an r t in both places. so this contains the police, some syrians to stand by their state and keep it filled. now this result isn't unfounded and isn't out of thing. and we knew 1st of all that there was going to be internal resources that we could draw upon. but 2nd, but we have allies who wouldn't be interested in allowing syria to fall into let's just say the other account. so basically the russians, and there are also others who sold in syria a front kline and where they could fight to prevent the battle from moving into their hand. which was in wrong cuz we knew the deer in use would perceive the problem in syria as a tribute to a problem in the air on. so they didn't want to at and you know, allow that easy to happen. and so we've had sort of natural allies,

if you think of the russian intervention in, in syria, in 2015 in the autumn of 2015. there's always a lot of talk that syria wanted this, that the russian friends came out all that is true because syria definitely needed some support cuz everybody else was, was trying to bring the government down on the state down. but also russian had a strategic interest because it, so the united states move into the region after the fall of muso, under the guys, i would argue, of fighting dice with what probably russia sold was. you know, 8 is somebody who they compete with that on an international scale is moving into a, an area where their influence can be curtailed. so mister west, how can i ask you that? because this is a very difficult question for, for the russians, because one could argue that the russians intervention and 0 was very effective in

terms of resources and changing the dynamic off of this conference. but there is also a group of analysts here in russia who argued, i think it was actually a preview to the ukrainian conflict. because having encountered russia as an effective counter for, as the americans may have exacerbated the militarization of ukraine and their thinking of ukraine as a sort of bulwark against the rushes, potential of gathering of strength. do you think the war in ukraine is somehow connected to russia's intervention in syria? i would argue it's the other way around. i would argue that because simply what happened in the ukraine started with as the sustained some lead to the naked ice, started in 2014, and the russian intervention and serious was like a year later. so you could argue that the problem with the ukraine, the cutoff ties the inability of russia to um,

to negotiate with the united states made, you know, syria, a vegetable sort of. and i wouldn't say threats, but at least last of influence and a question sort of to the russians. and they that facilitate their move. but again, there are, you know, i don't want to be a romantic about this book. yes, there are lots more and relations and history between russia and syria, that there is between syria and the united states. but no, for the russians. this was a continuation off. i wouldn't say struggle, but let's just say competition or conflict with the united states that didn't even started 2014. it started, i would argue earlier than that. well, because i'm argue that it's never actually, and it's been that with the cold war, but mr. woke up, we have 2 m here for a few moments to take a little break, but we will be back in just a few moments state. you and the,

the, the ukraine's long anticipated counter offensive housing deidre gunn. but it's not off to a good start. this does not bode well for the camp regime, and more importantly, it is a testament to the effectiveness of nato ukraine is failing since those ne the

welcome back to all the parts with a model. what caused the founder and director of no service a think tank focusing on the middle is most of a cup before the break. we were discussing the intricacies. so russia's involvement in the middle east and it's a fascinating topic, but i do want to go back to serious re admission into the arab league because in this day and age we have lots of examples of conflicts being pushed. but very few, although very promising examples of conflicts. well, um, not necessarily being you have to reconcile with at least the format adversaries moving towards each other. and one example of that would be syria in turkey,

syria and saudi arabia, saudi arabia and iran, there. um, a number of the very surprising developments wouldn't be too premature or too naive to believe that the, the region which suffered from so much violence is finally ready to a band and some of that, you know, and they, they was. so it is premature. i think the, this is about the competition, competition for the regional influence competition of domestic stability until on every single player have their own game. let's look at the situation. i think the easiest way of explaining what happened was that there are certain parties in the middle east. the pushed so far and so long and so hard to have a resolution via violence means whether in human world or whether in syria. there was a lot of economic pressure, if you think of seriously think of lebanon for the other party,

to force it to capitulate. that did not happen. so there was a book, there was a snack, you know, there was a steel made. why should we put even more resources when the situation is not acceptable? and could we achieve different results by applying different methods? and that's what probably prompted the and sort of a course type of arabs in of jordan egypt, saudi arabia and the u. a. e to meet in autumn of 2020 and decide that they weren't going to be approaching syria in order to preserve the theater, has a big identity sort of and this led to some explicit explanations of promoting of the audio. the king of jordan of the law, the 2nd flew to washington and flew to moscow unexplained this initiative on what we see now is it was a goofy of that initiative. to now give, ask you can ask about that because this is a fascinating name as well. because it's almost done, you can our argue the,

the arab mentality. yeah. um, more flexible, more mobilely. you know, you're famous for your bizarre. so you can think like in many different ways about potential uh, benefit. but the american mentality is usually very stumper and the american administration's almost never, i recognize the, the floss in the, in the past policies. it's pretty obvious that in order for the, for syria to be kicked out of the arab league, the, they have to be some american pressure from the of almost white house. do you think there was some sort of green lighting to the re admission from the american side this time around? i think there was at least a yellow light and amber light and the american, the rhetoric and what they're trying to do, for example, via their legislative the, you know, the congress and the senate. and in passing more and more sanctions and more and

more prohibitive rules, it looks like a stop gap is. so we have to understand this is not about cedar yet for the united states. this is not about the syrians, 3 joining the army. this is about an opportunity for the united states increase and consolidate a certain influence in the region, but what kind of influence and what kind of influence? because if we look at the saudi, saudis, if we look at the trucks, they're all nominally american allies, but they engaged far more with china, with russia even with around now. so what is left of the american implants, or what are some of the new ways that exerts itself and the fact that you know, the prime minister of israel, a lot of the king of jordan nowadays visit most school more than they visit. washington is obviously a worry, but that is a side effect and a result of the american intervention to destabilize syria, whether we liked it or not. and i'm not gonna, i'm not going to go through explaining why the united states,

if you think of it up, if you think of the northeastern syria, they are seeing an opportunity of influence and they don't want to surrender that very easily. they want to keep out as much as possible, and they took up the big picture. they, they have a bigger chessboard to play. and so they're thinking about the chinese as they're thinking about the russians. so it sort of in syria going back to the creek is a minor detail. but what they would want from is, is that if the syrians, for example, could be contained by the arms or helped. and it could be by the items, you know, the show them and it could be a 1st parity so that they could break. and we did it a bit from the iranians from the russians. then this would be argued ethically be a, an american plus sort of speaking about the syria is a regional player. and the you mentioned been another interview that there is indeed the pragmatic self interest on the part of the arab league to see, see,

re admitted into the organization. what exactly can syria all are on uh the how many on the ranking and on the palestinian fronts. so it starts with the posting in front, which is the problem in the middle east, on the main problem or the original problem. you put it as much as well as much as you like to. in this case, syria offers the palestinians a route to see know for to pressure that makes syria a very important player to nothing. if you, if you think of the abraham, of course, if you think of a lot of the things sacrament, whatever, as long as the palestinians can see that we could prolong this fight for another day as long as they can feel that then they won't. you know, raise the, the white flag and that makes syria very important to their cause. now you're on, in a sense, is backing syria in that tool very much. and this axis of syria,

iran has blah and thomas mixed up possible people can feel some hope. because the last thing that's gonna solve the post in a problem is for the posting used device to raise the white flag. it's not going to end. it's very natural. now the world needs syria to negotiate a way out of this because again, and so that's the palestinian issue. the other issues because of this particular position of syria and it's for nation with ad on this gives syria leverage and solving other regional problems that iran is involved with, with the audible. so in a sense, syria can feel now that it goes back to its natural place as a mediator, as a mid point between the adverbs and the uranium. and if you think of the latest, so degrading and rubbish, well, uh, you know, this, the, you know, the agreement that was site in, in beijing, you know, pattern not pattern by the chinese and so on. if you think about it also as

a continuation of the struggle by peaceful means, you know, we're still competing, but yes, we're going to start the hostilities by the way, we need to solve human and so on. syria can find itself a very helpful player to it's out of brother in, in helping solve the probably medium and in level a nothing, in my personal opinion. nothing is going to happen in the afternoon. i guess, serious will seriously. so there's so much at stake for syria and lebanon, and this explains the cedar intervention end of it. and since the year 2000, 976, if you want to put it that way, there's a lot at stake and syria will, you know, nothing is going to happen 11. unless somebody agrees with syria on something. it's interesting. yeah. it's actually very inspiring what you're talking about and it makes me think about maybe my question is eric on does something i, paul, i apologize about that before hand. but the, you know, the, the,

the conditional thinking in place in washington has been the, you know, we need our benevolent the head gemini in order to sort of help those. um, they're very people in the middle east to sort out the differences without killing themselves to, you know, to extinction. and though, what do you seem to be suggesting is that once the american influence has decreased or become, become somewhat different, the arab states can deal with that different a different interest in their relatively civilized in the peaceful way i, i do want to, i know, i ask you about the, the whole for about our new world, but there seems to be something new emerging. do you see any new spirit among within this region? all, i don't know believing in things, but at the end that things could be sorted out in the regional conceptual way.

perhaps with some of the, the asian from bigger players. but like trying to, let's say, well, like russia or even like the united states. but without giving anyone any outside play or the ultimate decisions for the face of the people who inhabit the region, i'm going to be as realistic as possible. and as frank as possible, i don't think that the major players can afford to antagonize or, you know, lose the trust of the united states. this is not about the regional position or their economic position. this is on. this is about their domestic stability. part of their domestic stability lies on the fact that this country is allied with the united states, the sort of that the country a lot with the united states. however, having said that, over the past few decades and especially in the past couple of decades, these countries has mature that they are now realizing our ass pre allies now that they can actually play a bigger role, a more active called proactive whole in world affairs. and to maximize whatever

benefit they can get. so let's take for examples. how do you have, if, if you think of caught thought about? yeah, it is a very specific case, more profiteering, it's about finding its place within the region proving to its neighbors the you a, the saudi arabia's a saudi arabia that, that it is on a peer to peer and a sort of relationship with them. it's not like, you know, it's a come 2nd, but with saudi arabia, they go to beijing and they do agree with a bang to the exchange or to sell the dollar to, to settle their oil for the chinese community. now this was unheard of unthinkable say 10 years ago. and what does that mean? the soldiers can go to the americans assailants. you have your own problems, we have ours, but we have to hedge against, you know, the fall of the us dollar value or whatever it is. and we have a lot of trade with china and this could make it easier for us. and the united

states could not easily say no when push comes to shove, the saudis will be expected to align behind the united states. but as long as there is some sort of margin for them to work, they will work. and they have their own regional aspirations as well. and if you think about it, it also falls within the united states view on how to add to the, to spread its influence. so the, you know, the saudis could say, if we put pressure on syria 11 and for example, 11 and would fall under our influence. and therefore, the or influenced and so the americans would say the ultimately doesn't, doesn't matter how you market it, as long as you can actually achieve a lasting peace. that's a good enough of the result. the may get some, you know, haven't started to yours or persuasion is very helpful here. and it's, you know, it's still unclear who is the dog and who is the tale and in this whole tale. but

the, at least people uh, not being killed in such large numbers anymore. yeah. we have yeah, yeah. we have to leave it there, but i, i agree that i appreciate your presence today. thank you very much for helping me. i'd really appreciate it. and thank you for watching and hope to see her again on the was a part of the or the

other way not. right. so see what's printing what is are out there. so some of this, so basically of course we need, your last name was name is read, it was can when we used to live,

imagine we have some more more for someone who was this we, which i knew people to the the, [000:00:00;00] the, [000:00:00;00] the hello and welcome to cross stock were all things are considered. i'm peter level. if you cranes, long anticipated counter offensive has indeed begun that it's not off to a good start. this does not bode well for the camp regime. and more importantly,

it is a testament to the effectiveness of nato. ukraine is failing, and so is nato the cross talking offensives. i'm joined by my guess, rob niemeyer. we knew by he is chairman of the council for a constitution and sovereignty in prague. we have brad blankenship. he is a comm this at c g t n. a freelance reporter refreshing was as well as an r t contributor and in italy we crossed to lorenzo marie. but she me, he is an adjunct professor of political philosophy. andrea politics at l. d m international institute or a gentleman cross type roles that affect, that means it can jump any time you want. and i always appreciate, let me on a route 1st and sunny do by roughly read this. been a lot of it is this account or offensive is turned into a mean the internet of itself. because if you look back and give it a wider angle here,

the major backer of all this is of course the united states and nato. and there's no indication whatsoever that the bye didn't ministration wants to see. this complet comes in any time soon. so it's a lot of talk about this here. and of course, you know, we have this incursion over the last new cycle and already the new york times say, oh, this is just reconnaissance for the real thing. i mean, this is a, this counter offensive is turning into a unicorn. ralph? a. yeah, but i agree with you, it is not as they seem to have expected it, but on the other hand, you have to study all the other conflicts that the united states impose on data. recently in the past, decades now have entered and where these are proxy wars and the, the, the, the proxy war of course is by itself, spray king, that it is not to direct confrontation. so still they say that they are not on the ground, but we see of course that, well, they are. well, you see these parts is an attacks that are even entering russia and that one

t of even says, oh, it's not i was old address, but you know, who is it that one has to ask. and i believe that is the real strategy. of course, mr. fighting cannot agree to in c's files of war. he has not entered officially, but he will see these proxy war as they have the tendency, like that's called the d. i've gotten used as a some of the ukraine right now. we will see for the next the cage probably always insurgencies from ukraine and territory also into russian territory. and neither side can really say they want it. so also russia has difficulties to maintain the, you know, the, the regions that they have. and i don't know who was responsible for, for the, the time that broke now. well, what was exploded to, you know, it's still not clear, but we've learned about that more. and i believe this is part of the strategy to do half this military confrontation going on and on and on. and that is the sad thing to say,

it's not the direct wall between russia and they to box the proxy wall. and that's, that's what this absolutely, that's a really good point lorenzo. let me go to you right now because the crane can't win . so why and the war? that's a very perverse logic. but that's what we're getting down to because and you know, i think it's fair to say, i mean, again, it's shorthand ukraine's counter offensive. this is ne, toes offensive. the ukrainian army was destroyed last summer. this is completely new equipped with all kinds of essentially junk. they'd be made to countries. i'm sent to ukraine. but this is nato's offensive. and i think we shouldn't we, we should say what it is. i mean, not mimic what the west wants the world to believe. go ahead lorenzo. oh, yes, of course i may tell it has been involved in the since the beginning it down, it has we knowing the confidence to answer it. it's very important to us to that what they do, you the and also international low on which module,

what happens next to may depend. as we know, ukraine has been boasting about suppose capital fancies for moms, but they were not boxing, video effective. and only now, after more than one year after it has to be massively arm is by the west of the nato based off that encounter. fancy it. so i my opinion, i suggest that the ukraine does not or know long. it has the resources to sustain the work that so can a year, they have many best people. they have many problems. and only now they are finding kind of solution on the overhead, as we know, the presidents that i ask you went around to you are asking to everyone for money and with homes which you only do way. you no longer have anything go there. so the rhetoric of the western press is always contradictory. now, key of could happen best for we gain a few kilometers of the re 3,

probably by continuing to promote the yes and the russian army, we can do our best, it may be on citizens. so again, it could make mosse and use of the government's resides by the west to try to regain a few towns. i don't believe, but wherever there, um they, we recite more with phones more helpful from made. so yes, of course natal wants to continue to work, but they don't know how to spend all of this morning. they don't have more research, especially because nato is using european resources to do that. so, um, you know, worst case scenario, do you have with pro such a strong counter attack from russia that it would be forced to change? it's thinking about the strategy. and that's, that was seen a real to, i believe, however, that the russia will not respond to e men. uh huh. and in demand box, we keep sea agree on his ball. so there's a criteria. and in this period, the russia is we think is very important. i can see is all around the word for

multiple or talk to ship a sofa believing nato and the counties of europe. the bit test submitted to natal increasingly easily to what that's made. a theme i've been discussing ever since the start of the conflict. i agree with you completely. brad. i mean, what is the best case scenario for this, you know, fabled counter offensive and what, what do they want to achieve other than to show their backers in the west that they're actually doing something. okay. i mean, that is a terrible waste of manpower. it's really well, it's not a waste, it's disgusting. go ahead, brad. well, i think you see, you said it exactly right. i mean this counter offensive that he is launching or