as well, of course they do, they're, they do, you know, of census reviews every year and they release their population figures on a pretty routine basis. what's remarkable here is that there had been projections that because of the effects of the one child policy, but even more so because of what in the west denmark cruise called the demographic transition, which is a pattern that we see all over western history. where when countries reach a certain level of economic prosperity, the traditional, the lease and behaviors around families and will change will shift to the, the old values. that said, you have to have as many kids as possible because some of them are going to die. and others aren't going around too much, you know. and so if you want to be able to be secure in your old age, or you need to have as many as many children. well, i said we, we, i know, i think you're probably gonna agree with this. you're starting a lot smarter than i am on this. we used to have children because we needed workers that our children were the ones who were worked on our farm or worked in our,

in whatever it is businesses we had today. we have children so they can go on and do their own things. but we don't need 4 or 5 or 6 of them, right? exactly, exactly. and, and that's what's happening in china is that, that young people are, are busy going about their lives. they, they want to have career as they want to have education. they also want to have fun, they want to travel, they want to do things. and there's been a real change in attitude. some of young people about, you know, whether they're, how soon they should get married, if they should get married at all. china has just legalized having children outside of wedlock as they say it also in an effort to, to perhaps bolster a new birth. but the reality is that this has been projected for a while. the surprise in the report this year was that it has actually already begun. yeah, there was talked about how, you know, by 2030 or 2050 the population would peak it,

s p. and this is going to be an ongoing trend of a declining population. the question i think really is, is that a good thing or a bad thing? yeah. well, i'll shoot that back out to you professor. is that a good thing or bad? yeah, sure. well, even in china, there are many people speaking out and expressing great concern about this. the idea is that, you know, demographers like to use this, this graphic representation of a kind of pyramid or comb. um where as, as the population ages its numbers get smaller and smaller. mm. that know, it doesn't look like that in china anymore. now you have relatively small numbers at the very top, a bulge in the middle, but then a narrowing base. and a lot of economists will say, exactly as, as you were mentioning, you know, oh my god, there's not going to be enough work or not going to be enough curse to support this aging population. uh, you know,

the number of people over the retirement agency and it grows every year. and it is, it gets going to be disproportionate in sort of classical economic terms. so there are, there are a lot of people, even in china who are expressing concern about yeah and, and i think the way, the way i was capturing that earlier is i was discussing, this is the very young are the working, the worker bees, the, the middle class are the ones who feed into the pensioners so that the pensioners can retire and the pensioners after working all of their lives on paying into the system themselves, are now waiting for the government to help kind of take care of them. as most of us agreed they kind of deserved to be taken care of. the problem is when one of those is in balance, then you get too many on one and, and not enough on the other end. you get, you cannot make this harmony and, and i guess by the way, this is about a try. the problem is there is a great britain problem. this is an american problem. this is uh, franz problem. this is happening in almost every developed country is just that in china being the biggest economy and the fact that, you know, they've got

a history that you're about to tell us about with the one child policy, etc, etc. it might be a little tough or go for the it is in again, it is in classical you cannot make terms. i think there's that there's a case that could be made for that argument. ok, but if you look next door to china and you look at japan, japan has had a stable and slightly declining population for 30 years now. and that hasn't led to economic collapse if anything, what it has led to is it to ation. we're trying, we're japan, the japanese economy functions more and more and more efficiently. mm. they're able to do more or maintain standards, even with fewer people coming into the workforce at, at the bottom level. how does the, how are they defying what we think is an economic template? well, i think they're defying it because they have different expectations. they have a culture that's different from that of, of the west. even though japan, you know,

went through this great dramatic transformation in the late 19th and 20th centuries, to reconfigure itself, to be a modern capitalist economy and developed this economy and all that. their culture is still strongly shaped by confucian values by the traditions of east asian culture that are much more sort of communal, listed much more collectivistic. and enjoy. of course, that's reinforced by the structures of a social state. social is state is capable of pursuing policies that will address these issues, especially issues of wealth distribution in ways that, that in a capitalist economy, it's much more difficult uh to do. and i can uh, give an example of that. which is, you know, the, the, the, the, the problem as it's formulated here is that we, as, as you're articulated it, that,

that a shrinking number of contributors to pension funds and things like that will lead to problems in this, in supporting a retirement population. a non working, the doctor population, we call it social security. they call it something else everywhere else. but it's essentially, it's the same thing, right? yeah, exactly, but it, but in china because it has the socialist core and it's economy and, and it's governance, they're able to put in place policies that, that are much more effective in terms of that, that sort of re distributive function. plus, they're able to guide and this is what a lot of what's happened in japan as well. they have, they have been able to and they are certainly pursuing this quite, quite aggressively. they're able to direct investment resources towards enhancing labor productivity enhancing the, the well, reducing the amount of labor input necessary for an expanded product output, which means that fewer workers is working less time to produce more

goods means that you don't need that constantly expanding base of labor and in a socialist economy, you don't want to generate what they call it capitalist economies, what they sometimes call the reserve or army of labor unemployed. people whose presence in the economy puts downward pressure on wages in a socialist economy and china, they can move away from that and, and hopefully we'll be able to continue doing that in the future in ways that are much more difficult for, for western economies. i'm going to, i'm going to stop you there for a moment because when we come back, i want to tackle 2 issues. one of them is obviously the effect that this could have on the global economy, because everybody seems to be wondering about that. and it's the conversations you're going to hear on the, you know, on cnbc, ease of the world, etc, etc. and there are there, i also want to know a little bit about the follow up to the immigration emigration story that is

happening in china. so we'll talk about that when we come back with a professor, kind of having a new mexico state university. hey, by the way, i have a pod cast where i as a journalist as a latino, as an entrepreneur. jo, my story and share with you what i learned about how to succeed, how to grow, what's called the rick sanchez podcast, and i invite you to check it out. i'll see you there. when we come back though, let's talk about what happens to china's position globally. as a result of this fertility situation. stay with us, the, [000:00:00;00]

the so we have happens globally as a result of china's population decline. well, let's talk about this. number one, a shrinking population means less consumption of goods and services which will or could certainly affect other countries who rely on the chinese consumer. number to

the smaller labor force would mean it might be harder for china to compete. totally . 3 economic impact could lead to a political fall out of maybe even a weakening of china's influence worldwide. and we're backed out with the professor, kenneth hammond from new mexico state university. okay. this is what everybody essentially gets to when they talk about china. it seems to be one of those alluring topics that everyone refers to and that is the one child policy, which was an effect in china for so many years. and a lot of people are saying that, you know, what is happening in china today with this under population. a problem, as it's being stated, has a lot to do with the one child policy. you're by that, well, you know, i'm, i'm kind of used to be in a bit of a contrary and voice on some of this stuff. but i don't, i don't buy that as, as the cause of what's happening now. you know,

the one child policies were put in place in the early 19 eighties at a point where china had achieved significant economic development. but much of the benefits of that development had been consumed by a rapidly growing population. yeah. the leadership made the decision to try to reign in population growth at the same time that they tried to accelerate economic expansion. and the combination of those 2 effects yielded that, that long period of, you know, double digit growth and in gross domestic product that we saw in the ninety's and, and the 1st decade of this century bought that, that constraints that restraints on population growth disappeared. uh about 8 years ago now. mm. uh, 7 years ago now, when those policies were rollback. and what the, what the surprise was to some observers was that there was no, there was no baby boom. there wasn't,

it wasn't that everyone was chopping at the bed and anxious to be able to go wild and started having lots of kids. again, there has been a very big yeah. but they were big, big, big the expectation was that people, when they were told you can't breed except for one child. and eventually when they got rid of the role, everybody would go out there like rabbits and start printing. but what you're saying they didn't and, and the reason they didn't is the same reason we see in all other western or, or develop nations. and that is the well. so here you are, the less out you are to want to be the less out you are to want to have babies. and that's almost the universal, me around the world. yeah, we've seen that. we've seen that in, in cultures throughout western europe, north america, japan, as we say, is as gone through this. it, it shouldn't really be a surprise to anybody. but i think the effect has been

a little stronger in china than in many places because they've gone very quickly now into this period where there's actually a, a decline in population. and in part, as we were saying before, the break, you know, that's because you don't have an immigrant population coming into china to bolster the the do population of projections are that by the end of this century, trying this population will drop back to about a 1000000000 people that's a drop of 400000000 people over the next uh, you know, 7 or 8 decades. but there is then there is one thing we have to address and that is, and that is, and that is the fact that because of the one child policy, or there are many more men, then there are women in china. as a result, there's not enough of um, oh well, i'm not quite sure how to say there's delicately, but they're actually now and i and i,

and i just read this report that seems to indicate that the chinese government is trying to create a sperm bank. if you will, for there to be, uh, you know, enough males and enough over them. i don't know that they're, that they're looking at ways to create more for delivery. so is that exactly? yeah, these shot the city of shanghai has been the pioneer and this uh, john hi is the most popular city in china. it has over 25000000 people i bought in shanghai. the effects of this demographic transition have also been very, very dramatic. shaw high as a, as a city does have an immigration slow, there are people who are drawn to sean high by you cannot make oppertunity is there . but natural growth in the sean high population is negative is shrinking. and sean high, very soon after the dropping of the one child policy began to initiate programs to

try to encourage people to get married to have babies. they enhance a priest at the, the, the levels of, of state support of the provision of services. they even provided financial direct financial incentives and it didn't work. it simply didn't work. yeah. and at the irony in some ways is that there's, there's gender disparity, which is not in minutes, but there are definitely more young man. then there are young ladies, you know, women, that under disparity has resulted in, in many ways not universally, but in many ways in a valorization of women and young women now in and china has of course, uh, you know, equals uh educational opportunity, employment opportunity, things like that there are problems, there are glitches with all of that, but basically they're committed to a gender neutral gender balance the economy. and so that means that there are many more, you know, young professional women, your business women,

young women seeking their careers, who don't want to step aside from that and say, no, i'm just going to stay home and, and have children and raise babies. and do that, they want to pursue their lives, they want to pursue the opportunities which the chinese economy provides for the interest or so listen to what you just said the aside as it was that many years ago during the mileage rule where people were literally a boarding females and even killing female babies cause they all wanted to have boys. uh that that policy aside as it was and as much as we've written about it has now turned conversely into an advantageous situation for females in china. that's crazy. yes. well, it, as i say, it's a, it's, it's, it's another, it's a demonstration of what sometimes called the law of unintended consequences that you know, uh, the, the, the one trial policies achieve what they set out to achieve in one sense,

in the sense that by restraining population growth even though it's are like continued to grow, but not at that rapid pace that it had in the 1st 30 years of the p. r. c, the people's republic that allowed the benefits of economic expansion to raise the material livelihoods, of hundreds of millions of people. you know, they've tried his accomplishments with, with all kinds of things, health care, education, housing, you know, eliminating absolute poverty, things like that would not have been possible without the one child policy. when they lifted those many people, most people i think expected that there would be a new wave of population growth. but that the expansive economy would be able to absorb that. and indeed in a classical sense, even benefit from that that hasn't happened. but i think, you know, again i'm, i'm, you know, used to be a little bit of a contrary. and i don't think it has to be the disaster. that western observers are and so many and trying to are,

are anticipating fascinating conversation. professor kenneth time in new mexico state university, a historian, thank you. uh, thank you very much sir, for taking time to the pleasure to be here for having me hate. before we go, i want to remind you of our mission. it's simple really. i want to try and de silo the world. we've got to stop living in these little boxes that we all seem to want to occupy. choose to live in boxes. truth is everywhere. how much interest are we looking for you again, right here, where i'll provide you with some direct impact, the welding of the soviet union thought, you know, great union daugherty, a surname?

yeah, i did. she ship a doctor. lean. i'd ship for the control room for 2 of us, so we fixed you get the system really being you have enough. lots and lots of lots and lots of i'm assuming, yeah, we did the boom cloud. so it's actually, it's streams of dark news, but i'll let you draw both on the, on their own crazy if that's where you store lot of the my software. but just do you still know? sadly, if she ever always gets us, what are we shipping that just figured for a lift or slip that came over to them? i need this says that you are in school, so that's for and use i use only for each of the board. couple here and you can assume that somebody's going so i'm sitting here

waiting for you to take a picture of the day so that i'm not the i didn't see any explosion. all hayton. it's closer to the at. and the sort of know we didn't hear south african officials rejected way i'm engaged, you know that roscoe talking to keep doing that the permission to the city while west and media outlets were on top of the things including lost the fine to scan the after going to need is also have we have many more weapons, the massive native countries, they know this and all the time they try to persuade us to start negotiations on the reduction screwed up in service to our kids. i lots of other local russia into

using nuclear rhetoric is own new wide mean the gap between mazda and the worst. so what does the person says during a speech? i've listened petersburg, economic, or by law, as far as massive holes on the un peacekeeping troops in the country without delay, claiming that mission has failed to deal with security. time does the, the live for law and josh, on use of santa in moscow. this is the welcome to the global news is that if i really need is sent to hold tools data with by that i will send over the confidence in ukraine. however, though is peace initiative has already been spun by the for any present the minutes . and as you said, most good must be done a decisive movie defense. thus, despite that, so rob offers us as much as interest,

probably not in any future negotiations. and we do believe that this process for piece much i said this complex requires that all the points must be put on the table. this wall must be settled and this should be peace through negotiations. a and diplomatic means while outside of the space, fine also as a heavy focus on thinking about certain aspect to the compet with several people is made about the post war reconstruction of devastated areas on the exchange of prisoners of war. the president also spoke about as of the necessity to provide security guarantees of, of russia and complain. something moscow has repeatedly stressed and the positive and nato expansion tools. it's board is along all the requirements of the piece of glued into the south avenida is much closer to a corporation with the african concept performa,

egyptian and boss of the system. the far mess of it is one of those really, for, i'm honest, i'm probably mastic conversation with the african need is about piece and you think the key is best in class i that is very much is the, the thing and government at the present time is interested in diesels for the uh, the mission and the interventions of the applicant integration would fall on deaf ears in in moscow. i guess solutions between russia and uh, i mean a very cheap and i guess the pretend that occasion was fine, that the russian shows, uh, we give them uh, we would give them attention. we let discuss with them to talk to the problem to

talk the dispute was today, and of course i, i guess that i should say with the, with the, uh, the technician will see. you see then the uh okay, by a meal, i'll say i thought of him does. i'm president ramos is the security team of being blocks by poland for flying to russia. a k off of the afternoon delegations visit to kia during wasting, creating officials full secret. and most of the legend deposited the capital missiles and drawing to the west and made it quick echo those flames the south african presidential. suppose this and said he never heard. also a thing dismissing it as misinformation. i didn't see any explosion, all had an explosion. that's what do we say? no, it arrived in the morning a decision today? yes, we went to put you and in the time we arrived and the time we went to put you, in fact,

we did not witness any of those who did not have to ask and lodge. sorry. no, we didn't hear it. but did you go to bump schultz or today? no, no, no, i didn't go to the present. it was taken to the south african delegation. they brought a piece initiative to see it, but that visit, it was mind by a whole array of incidents when they arrived key of the officials that ukrainian officials, they announced that the south african delegation was indeed met by the whaling of air raid sirens. the harbingers over a quote and quote, massive russian missile attacks put in builds confidence by launching the largest missile attack on t as in weeks. exactly, a mid the visit of african leaders to our capital russian missiles or a message to africa. russia once more war, not peace,

the crating and officials be branded be today suppose attack as one of the largest to date. but that attack certainly failed to impress the south africans because they did not account anything of the sort. in fact, they revealed that they were outright surprised when they were told to take shelter in the hotel. they posted a video that was short moments of to the legs. miss all attack and no sirens can be had in that footage and vac video. so they themselves out, they explicitly said they that they did not hear any explosions or sirens, but the western media, well, they decided to stick with the key of accounts of events. they called it a message to the south african delegation ending general. they have the site to hype up this event, that it probably did not happen to do as much as possible. this really brings us to another incident. this delegation that we're talking about. it was cut short

dramatically because see they were traveling via to ad croft and one, carrying the officials in another. the security detail over a 100 people on the journal of south african i'm just african. john listened, that secondary profit was grounded in poland. apparently that was supposed to be the layover, but for the gods on the members of the press, it was turned out to be the final destination and the jealous dave and african john list. he described in great detail the sort of humiliation some of the men, but some of the passengers of the jets had to go through in poland to have a listen. there was a struggle with outside the windows and the furnace police were using to allow outside the box uh with us. we have at least a 100 members of the security personnel. some of them special task force. the other members of the people who are supposed to go ahead of the president of the central

russia for the african. listen, the furnace threatened to confiscate the whip instead of being carried by this. yeah, they also step search a member of the presidential protection services. someone who holds a diplomatic passport, that's the never happened before in all the as a several by the s. this is now a diplomatic drought, and at this point we are waiting for them coming to you from our president and all minute stuff international relations. 12 following this bombshell, poland tried to downplay the scale and the significance of the event. they said that, well, the security via apple security there was simply trying to confiscate weapons from the south african security detail of the south african president in sales. uh, but again, that very much difference with the accounts that you just had from a journalist who sold that with his own eyes. and in fact, this incident on this very facts, since uh,

just bear in mind that all these people over a 100 people, they are still stranded, apparently in poland, in hopes that they will be able to travel to russia next. because it is the, the 2nd leg of the journey of the south african delegation. and in fact, the south africans themselves, pre described what happened in poland knowledge. the great simple nature of that incident, officials are engaging with their portage, come to us to resolve the theme test so that the p p. s team is always the media can proceed to get you as planned as well. ready be able to cover at least that i shouldn't legs off the piece tools as well as both both, both the treatment. we do be deeply disturbed by the experience they've gone through. and we are engaging of what is called applies to see to each to that

situation. the keys are resolved. now african nations are expected to share the piece plan with the officials in most school. but again, it is unclear as to what sort of uh, what, what sort of consequences that will be and how much weight is that piece plan will carry regardless of the results. and regardless of the outcome of their meet in general, i personally wouldn't put the hold any hopes high because ukraine has been very adamant. it's either that way or no way at all. and of course, they want everything they want. cry may have a want that don't pass and well, this is not something that rush that russia is going to settle with. a lisa itself is lion suitable is. there's no appetite for a fax checking. if the truth goes and gains less than narrative. the true. what we're really trying to spot is