the, the, [000:00:00;00] the,

[000:00:00;00] the hello and welcome to cross software. all things are considered. non peter live out . nature was a peculiar organization. it claims to be defensive military lines. but at the same time, claims it must constantly expand. add to this, the alliance is quite to project stability. in reality, it projects instability and in security and made russia, its primary enemy, the processing, the upcoming nato summit. i'm joined by my guess, nichol, i petro in kingston. he is a professor of political science at the university of rhode island in portland, we haven't been ripped. he is a freelance journalist and in london we crossed the income mackenzie. he is a visiting lecturer at the law school of the university of westminster are a gentleman crosstalk roles in effect, that means you can jump any time you want. and i always appreciate nichol. i let me go to you 1st. you know, there's been a lot of, uh, there was

a lot of talk about the ukraine. so the counter offensive. and now there's a whole lot of talk about the upcoming summit and bill this of the nato summit, of course. and, but it's quite peculiar. and yeah, and i'm going to use that word. there seems to be a lot of double talk and ex, explaining what's going to happen there when nothing really much is going to happen . they're, they're going to throw a few bones to uh, to the ukrainians and other than that. and there's no membership in the cards, maybe, and no membership ever in the future. what are your thoughts as somebody to is approaching the right? i think the game is lowering expectations for ukraine. i think a senior polish official and just said not to expect too much. but on the other hand, sometimes it turns out the united states to manage is through the whole

coersion and other on so on. pressure is to pull a rabbit out of a hat at the last minute. this has happened before when it's been able to sell its own objectives in a way that seems appealing to others and then uh, hide from them of their, their long term implications. so i'm, uh, i'm still very wary about what this upcoming nato summit might lead to. well, is there, okay, let me go to you in london. i think nikolai, as usual, is spot on here and i'm, but what's interesting is, i mean rabbits, it'd be cool is it could be pulled out of a hat. wouldn't be really about ukraine. it would be about russia. and this is what this is all about. go ahead and wanted yes, that's absolutely correct. so then i agree with the last, the comment that they, they, they, they, ukraine, coffee expect more than the, the usual they will just simply be giving them

a more promise of arms and that be a nation wide in the meeting. so i'm the ukrainian societies being the, you know, it's being disruptive and it's, it's, it's disruptive. it's a disruptive, a saying, as i think uh, there's no question of the ukraine. the company as a member because they simply do don't fulfill any of the criteria for the so called math. so as you've said, beads are, it is about so old about russia or even at the expense of the absence obliteration of the crate. and as they should states, and the, the, you know, the actual degradation of, um, uh, european society and, and, and european security too because that's not being addressed here. and we've actually create more in security because you will have a revision is. so ukraine, i haven't, i mean, there's not

a whole lot of logic involved in this here. those that want to push to give exceptions to ukraine to get into the alliance. well then there is a pay in europe and more, i mean, who in their right mind wants that go ahead and portland i think that everybody kind of has to play a game where they all want to pretend that they wanted just for oral purposes, but no i don't think anyone actually particularly wants to start a war in europe. i mean if they wanted to do that, they've had ample opportunity and they haven't done it. so i could see poor would maybe even sending in some volunteers or something like that. but i don't think it's going to be any ukraine's definitely not going to join nato, no bid. and they've made that quite clear. okay, well, let's go back to nikolai and kingston and then what is the long term implications here? because, you know, it is

a nato consent talk all or what it wants about future membership of ukraine. but that's the red line for russia. and that's why we have this conflict. and so, you know, it's almost kind of an echo chamber and in may till land. okay. because the no matter what comes out to bill is the russians and already made their position clear . and they're not going to budge from at least there's no evidence of it go ahead. nikolai, the hope lies not in the current leadership, political leadership in nato countries, but in their successors. there are interesting movements of support, particularly in germany, with the rise of alternative parties to prominence that are very much skeptical of nato expansion. and the phrase is already been the use of forever wars that are going to be

a burden specifically to german tax payers. and i think as germany goes, way if, if the conservative right wing in germany does come to power and sticks to its skeptical agenda of on, on german foreign policy and 6 to reverse that. then i think we will show more courage along the same lines displayed in france and italy, which is basically their right wing parties have, have caved to the nato agenda. correct? yeah, well you, i'm sorry, i'm going to have to throw your own words back at you. i mean, you as a lot of coercive power. i don't think it will allow that to happen. i think maybe i think with nato and has to worry about is colored revolutions instigated by washington. if they don't stay in line, me guys go back to our guest in, in london it's, it's very interesting the term forever war has already been brought up here. and that is, i think, really what's at play here. the mountain states doesn't want ukraine in nato, and of course it doesn't, because then it would take on obligations. but the,

the status quote works for washington, just fine. they have no legal obligation, so security obligation, so to protect you, crane. but a good it'll, it'll probably russia on the behalf of an update to, i mean, it's a perfect scenario for washington. go ahead and london. yes, it's a, it's a terrible situation and i sealed it. so obviously, rusher is holding fast to weeks. it's always is. and they can only get more line since the previous piece over the years have been um, throwing out the window uh, best of letting me improvements in the obviously, um, show the records of the signed agreements. and so if russia wake sent out and i think the ukraine is on, it's the dog which is being systematically and try to be destroyed. and america is just going to find

a way of abandoning you. great. it's done that before to the south via the me is starting to the codes of the guns. and that is also the unfortunate so afraid that the remains for, for ukraine. yeah. but as i, i agree with our previous guess of the logic here. but this complex has been turned into an ex, essential conflict. okay. the u. s. last in afghanistan. last and the rack last of in libya, it'd be good and it had no real collateral damage. this is a very different thing. this is to do or yeah, i mean spelt and berg. i've given a, extending his term here. is it said recently in the last week or so that this is all about china now. okay. i mean, this is ex, essential, it's not just a proxy war halfway around the world in, in developing country. go ahead in portland. well, and in this case, i mean, they've had visited planning for so long. you know, the, the provocation is against ukraine. go back all the way to the 1940s. it was when

they i believe it was the british you 1st made contact with the o u n. in 1944 and they have supported the members sense. so i think this one's kind of a, a bigger deal for them was 88 of waste like libya, syria, you can just kind of you know, throw some things out there. and if it doesn't work out, she just leave put ukraine. they've been so invested for so long that i think it's hard for them to pull out if there's weight. well, i agree here nikolai, i mean it's all about the rules based order. it's about a european values. it's about barrels garden, i mean, they've invested a lot in this. okay. and, and it was a craven choice. i mean, the ukraine has nothing to do with european security, certainly not american security. they have chosen to do this nikolai and that.

but so let me say 1st, 1st of all, that every war that america america seeks to fight and sales to it's public is an existential war. as gattis, dad was a war also for all the same values. and i don't think, although we're trying very hard, we haven't quite reached the level of commitment the resources that we, we spent and they've got us down over more than 20 years. so these things these, these. busy bouts of uh, of imperialism, which is a recurring thing in american foreign policy. continue and, and will recur. but, uh, at the end of the tunnel, i see the promise of realism. realism being simply a recognition of the facts on the ground. and when they couldn't find me, if i can interrupt you,

do you think victorian do you think victoria knew in things that way? and i think victoria newland is not a permanent component of the foreign policy establishment. everyone's time is off at some point. and this particular bout with imperial expansion will have a lot of, i think, a long i don't, i hope, lasting called a recuperation. there will be sort of the hang over effect from this. i hope will be more dramatic than it has been for it again as well. nickel, i'm going to talk about that in the 2nd half of the program gentlemen, we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break,

we'll continue our discussion on the upcoming nato summit stage with r t, the a highly the, let's see the, with the temperature, these 3 degree higher already from the neighboring down woods. you know, right? because the other townships having chucked at the trees, but didn't type guy in the name of development, and he's our 1st to become a capital like a single or we are all going to are the nice the issue then just covering all the green to be gone so when you distract nature, it takes every range of the

the, [000:00:00;00] the $1890.00. 8 of the united states won the war again, spain and gain control of the philippines. the people of the philippines held that the americans would help over throw spanish rule and the grand independence to the country. but the united states was by no means willing to give freedom to the philippines and side as just another colony. the 1999. the filipinos began armed resistance to the new occupied american troops were barely able to occupy the territory of the philippine republic. for that patriot started

a desperate the rail of war. washington was forced, as in new reinforcements and triple the number of its troops on the islands. the u . s. army suffered heavy losses. the americans took it out on the population. general jacob smith in revenge for the girl le deck on the garrison in the city of bile on g. g, a quarter to kill everyone over 10 years old. the monstrous gulf of terror, according to the most conservative estimates lead to the death of about 200000 philippine notes. the americans manage to suppress the gorilla as only 14 years after the beginning of the war. but the united states was not able to stop the national liberation struggle of the filipino peoples in 1946. after the decades of the dramatic ordeal, the philippines was finally able to achieve independence. the welcome act across sack,

were all things are considered on peter roosevelt's remind you were discussing the upcoming nato summit. the okay, let's go back to our guest in a, in one in a day in k d. i'm sure you came across the article by john mearsheimer um, titled the darkness ahead where the ukraine wore is heading. and it's a fascinating piece of writing and, and, and, and it's a big picture which everybody really wants to understand. and he, his conclusions, well i widely respect his work, but then he, there's one element here that i think could, we could have almost like an endless discussion about and is conclusion that this could end up in some kind of frozen conflict, which i find that could really kind of fascinating people mentioned the, the co, uh, cream poet peninsula as an example i, it doesn't work for me because all of the major powers bought into

a frozen complex roughly is not going to do that. your thoughts go ahead and london . and yeah, i think uh for sure that this is the only, so that's a name. so has all of the company was when this be considered a strategic to feed for nato. nato has a really big ego. i mean, when it comes to russia, oh, they have a superior already complex here. can they compromise it? this is something that nichol i was trying to bring up. keep going in london. well, the big, big, big, big cat in a sense, and they will try and sell it because of victory. i mean, we haven't had much about syria, which was an example of, of frozen conflict. but the us, it's still occupied because of syria and it's imposing a terrible sanctions on it. so i would tend to agree with the, the point of view, let's russia will not find a frozen conflict, the acceptable that in goals and elements of the agreements and russia and has led through be to experience. so one broken promise to another, you know,

going back to the problem so not one mortgage east was for late. so up to the recent makes the call. busy the it'd be, uh, a frustrating to the agreements uh we visit. so let's be a government last year. so um, but unfortunately, i don't see it as being the uh and the goal shades that, uh, set my, i don't see certain members of the date. so i even want to that the site is fine with that, you know, unfortunately the, the present leadership in, in, in poland and apparently english sofa roland was the while skis, caution. that's that they just come from and should not to hate russian or more than they loved opponents. and so i think russia is going to talk 3 times as see, that's terms on the go straight to which sounds sort of remnants of, of what are you trading in

a really well robins in the box also is the evidence. i mean, it's already been mentioned, the minutes good process, which was a fraud on the western side. the major players have admitted it's okay. so i mean, if we're going to talk about some kind of frozen conflict, i mean, that's nonsensical because then they'll just take that time to build up capacity and sort of more over again. i mean, i don't, i didn't understand the logic. i wish i could talk to mirror so i'm really like, don't understand that part of it space is go ahead and, and yeah, i mean in which means it was, they didn't even try there. there wasn't ever really any real desire to implement that. the ridiculous thing is, if you look back at it, how willing russia has actually been to make a deal at all this had they have made the deal that, that, or is johnson kill diabetes. russia was actually willing to give up, wait a lot in that deal of what they have that we did. and so as the war goes on,

their position is only going to get worse and worse and worse and worse. because obviously the ukrainians can actually dislodge the russian army for where they're at. and so the longer the way the worst cities negotiations are going to get nikolai, it's very interesting if we look at what the, what was negotiated in this them, bull. it's fascinating. the landscape was asked to give up what he didn't have. i mean, it's remarkable. he didn't have the don bass. he didn't have the crime in. he was asked to give up what he didn't have. and now we're looking at. we are nikolai, as well. the bottom line for me is that the outcome of the negotiations will be set by the, situate, the military situation on the ground. and right now everyone is still jockeying for position as this has been going on for

a long time. you're beginning to read things about how in, in american newspapers, how zalinski is, is recognizing that he may not be able to achieve victory. and all these accounts, these narratives are setting up the various constituencies in the west to make concessions, whether they want to or not. because once the counter offensive, assuming it, it runs its course and is ultimately unsuccessful. at that point, all the cards are in russia's hands and the decision will have to be taken on rush aside to advance or just stop. and at that point, it becomes an imperative for the west. negotiate this, go back to our guest and one to do by that because of the way i look at it is here is that we and it's already been mentioned on our program here is there's been

a lot of a lot of lies and deceit here. the russians, i think, for unilaterally decide when it's over your thoughts. well that's, that's my minus thinking there as well. i think um, they have no problem, so to speak, to the go shake with. and they are surrounded by um, trying to intransigence. um, it seems to me that's um they have to go on out to um, re claim um uh, whatever is left of the declare the independent down best regions they might do as far as or data and they will have to then become found to they've made so then decides to, uh, send in the police troops officially, which would be a dis oscar for everybody, but so i don't see uh this, um, as i see, does it say any point, you know, you know, going back to a previous point that, that, that, that was made,

but at some point this is one of these last that too much for the west. the amount of money being hauled into ukraine. the expense of the defeat will no longer be able to be uh, to be caught up and bodies when courageous people in politics and academia monitor population will need to come forward and really get rid of. it's not just about be to renew it and it's about people who shared the same ideology as a really need to be a focus on, in the public disclose in the united states. and they really need to be gotten rid of. yeah i, i've been, i the people that, um i did the guy was i talking about. they don't exist. okay. they've been marginalized, they've been cancelled, and they're all potent puppets. okay. i wish we could wish that was a track, but i don't see it because so much hubris is on the line right now. again, this is, you know, they, they did this to themselves. they ratio themselves into this. go ahead and portland . yeah, i mean,

and if you look at the history of the people that are involved here it's, it's, it's hard because you will get to bite. and i mean, he has had a long career in american politics at this point. and at this point, he has been pro war every time he's been pro war with every what he was pro vietnam, he was pro, into this lobby a i rack in afghanistan, where as much as creation is anybody else is i still remember him sitting at the table next to george w bush saying that saddam had weapons of mass destruction, 45 minutes away from being launched. and so how do you negotiate with this man? how do i need to go say any, but how do you negotiate with this mentality of this world view, this ideology, that's the problem. you, nikolai, we're rapidly running out of time. but you always have a word of optimism and you've already kind of touched upon it. i mean, you talked about realism here. i wish we could have realism here,

because you know what, europe and russia are neighbors, and they're going to be neighbors for a very long time to come. go ahead nicholas. and there will, there is an establishment. there is a deep state, but there is also, there are also alternatives to them. they keep springing up and those will not go away either. i'm not, i don't know when or if they will try them. but certainly their voices are becoming more and more heard. a bye bye all i think, and that's a that is a reason for optimism in the long run. okay, well, i mean, what is the long run here? because, i mean, can you do say, what do you see the west accepting russian security interest? i mean, that's what this is all about. i mean, the russians, it's all black and white. it was on december 17th. the, you know, the months before the complex, i mean, everybody knows what russia wants, can they, can they accepted,

denying it all the way they will effectively accept it. okay. okay, let's go to one. did you buy that? do you think that they could? i mean this is eating so much cro. okay. this is not at a site. it's not a rock. it's not libya, it's different. go ahead in london. i think they'll, they'll, they'll, they'll try and sell it. so as a fig tree, whatever happens um, but uh, i kind of see rush, i bought a bunch in the veal columns like streamline, tries the jazz along with the american exceptionally since the military industry still prop tried for made something with china, another dangerous adventure, but they will try and divert attention from ukraine ultimate. okay, so what looks to be a certain degree. okay, ever. we have one. we have one minute left. so this i, i have the solution for the neo cons and the victoria new ones of the world. how to get out of this and it goes something like it's, well, it least the russians didn't make their paris. we won their that's what they're

going to do. go ahead and portland. yeah, i mean, i'm sure that they'll come up with some sort of a scenario that the americans are very good at that they still like to say that they want in vietnam to you know, we killed so many more of them. that means we won the war, but, you know, they'll, they'll just come up with something. i'm sure either that or they'll just started another war similar else. it's what they usually do. well it's, it's very interesting because these are leads that you are easily entertainment, ancient, and changeable to in the west. that may seem to be more apt to creating problems and solving any problems over the last 50 years or so gentlemen. that's all the time we have a one to think, my guess in portland kingsland and in london. and of course i want to thank our

viewers for watching us here at our to see you next time. remember, across cycles the, [000:00:00;00] the, which i thought there were some openings for students, the sluggard has done so right now lecture and they thought clearing this, the post is on the, at the is that i, that's a get a minute from other students i need, which is easy to saw on the screen. so as i said, i'm showing material which is in line. i'm willing to identify july. the 2nd is ordered by which will screw well in the label. so because i mean yeah, we did present to not the results. ok. 20 and then we'll just do some solutions for sure. and i'm comfortable in which way which insidiously suit him.

they process the information with them for the gifts. authoritative celia was this because they did just wouldn't care to get a car through the new year. oh for g, if i teach the way, know for me teaching the scholars that should thoughtful and you have to do this, i'm going to left, i look forward to that. so she's ma, it's a portion by cheese. let's move, i'm our no, i'm really starting from 1st month to month with my big letter to begin with it, completing it. i will just i get i as well as to the lowest scholarly unload, i will do it. so i'm going to study to the progressive rock i used to show finish. this is just so just for good news, i'm a fraction of when you come swing to do friday is the mentor you order to empower

people for the for sure. interim in the temperature of the induction to some of the data. it was a peculiar organization, it claims to be defensive military lines. but at the same time, claims it must constantly expand. add to this, the alliance is quite projects, stability in reality and projects, instability and security, and made rushing its primary head of the double sundance on washington as the us reports of late ponds to supply cluster munitions to kids i think previously condemned to the use of the weapons and it comes down on the food info, some japan and make concerns about funds to dump water contaminated by the fuqua's human euclid. disaster. also had the on off in the manner in