what we're seeing right now with the russian delegations visit to china is a much bigger opportunity to even improve the already warm relations between china and russia. in comparison to these times by us officials, we've seen in the past to make friends and influence china discussing well, the protagonists and the ukraine conflict under some each other's motives and goals is world a part next. interesting chuck, this catch aqona, today's guest iris history and geoffrey roberts, friday, the

the hello and welcome to was a part the russian military operation in ukraine of those 2 markets. first anniversary having demo cadence, millions of lives on both sides of the conflict, inter before and after. how well do the protagonist understand the child, their motives and goals and we've been damaged, already inflicted as any reconciliation even possible? well, to discuss it, i'm now enjoyed by geoffrey roberts, professor emeritus of history at the university college court. this is a robert's is great to talk to. thank you very much for your time. thanks for the

invitation. as you pointed out in one of your articles at western media are still awash with the theories and narrative of what was on vladimir put his mind when he authorized this incursion into your brain. but according to you, they all missed one important factor which is put into a pots elliptic vision of a nuclear on your brain, imbedded in nato. what do you mean by that? and do you think that vision as apocalyptic as it may be? i have any grounding in reality, it will i describe that the thirty's of decision to go to well with your crime as a decision to to have the type of preventative. what right, to prevent the continued build up of the nature ukrainian on. ready is on rushes rush, just pull it out. yeah. so he's basic perspective was the that build up. why don't the media read the french or russia in the meat are long. so what would actually

represent the next essential french russian ties you these arguments the set this? by the time it again sits sense it will be guy was the russian, i have to type acting t cordite that for now because it was the data problem will be even great. so the situation be western russia in the future, a subset nice that spicy was a little but, but in the process leading up to the decision. um, if there's a particular monument, which i think my has to put his calculation to paper will because okay, so as over, it will say, well there was a threat. we need to like we like it, we need to wait to prevent people. but obviously it was very risky, dangerous. some of the things i think use defeated approaching somebody who is this particular moment. it's not the immediate security conference that mid mid mid february, whence landscape makes the speech of the kind of friends that you cry with quiet new nuclear weapons. and isn't this actually the 1st uh,

no comment on in the west. the rest of them do not stations, but the fact that the policy also truly operation is supposed to be a uniform policy, a as in doors by all of international organizations. now, professor rober, as you also argued, that i can believe that she was backed into the corner by the west and to recognize that fact that you know, he didn't have many great options, was not to endorse his perception or not to approve the war as a policy, but simply a meant to this time for the missing to the fact also requires some degree of analysis off of the western policy because pushing your nuclear armed adversary into the corner, it's hard to intrude into a wise d. c. any appetite for this kind of reflection in the west, especially given indeed disaster as uh, consequences both for your brain and to some extent for the european union. the oh

i see. yeah, as the store and as i am comments, i strongly international this. i see my site, my functions to try to explain what, what's coming on to, to explain people's motivations. right? and that's, that's why i'd be interested in relation to, to police and then the rest of the decision to, to attack of you crying. now having said that, as, as you indicated, that doesn't lead site to i accept pollutants, russia now, and i agree with these calculations, i don't, i all right for the very beginning, i have a post a while and i continue to post. what does it need to and when we're having these discussions, we can try to what was the full from the discussions that you see that kind of pretty clearview about what's going on. what? yeah. what kinds clips long actually just houses, people to be killed or wounded, that ukraine has been devastated. there is a dock read all the risk, the names and torture it every single day. thousands of ukrainian

soldiers and russian soldiers died on, on the front. so we need to, as far as i'm concerned, the war is i, these all started at least to be brought to the 9th as soon as best as soon as soon as possible, transferred me over to the can i can i stop here here for just a 2nd, because i think this is a very important juncture because when, whenever i have these discussions about security and morality, they're always sort of, intertwined in a way that isn't very difficult to make sounds because i don't know a single human being who would say that war is a good thing, there is no one who approves of war. i'm sure protection solved doesn't improve a war, but why don't you come to matters of national security of morality and ethics and you know, they and they don't always play along with the the printer all the tips of commander in chief and wasn't as also the moral duty of any commander in chief british commander issue from the american commander in chief era. so from under each of our

ukranian ones to defend the country. if they feel that as a central interest of being threatened is also tomorrow, duty of citizens to actually judge the political leaders and their decisions and their consequences. some are due to all outside of the others like me to, to, to, to, to, to design my judgment is that, that, that decision was wrong. that other possibilities of we solving the problem is beauty. so it was still present drugs. i don't, i don't see that i reach the edge of the road too much again. so that's my ultimate is the purchase unit, continued to pursue the pos pos of diplomacy. now having said the bus, i disagree with purchase decision to go to law doesn't mean to say that i blind human autonomy for the well, i know i, i did it once as it is pretty small, but boutique decisions where i appreciate that would be not. ready in your boss,

but all of us have responsibility to the situation as well. rough printed, i noticed people pulled the trigger out. what was the west, that loyalty discount, but by bodies night. so your credit military build up and brush as bold as it was. you crime, but by refusing to implement that meets we make story against us. is that what we've had? we've had the development of this competing to a proxy will up between restaurant west now who wrote before and that it's from put into apocalyptic perspective. going to warranty ukraine uh, bad in the, in ukraine to stop this country from becoming another. nathan breach had, was not a difficult decision to make. and you have the russians didn't make that decision in 2014. they didn't make that decision in 2020, and even in 2021. having a mass based very sizable contingent on the border with your brain. put an engaged in the last round of diplomatic talks with his american counterpart. it was

a violent which unfortunately left nothing. i assure that we should refuse, indeed apocalyptic. i would even say biblically apocalyptic visions. are you sure that it was nothing difficult decision for seem to me given every thank you, sad about the russians and the ukrainians being you know, essentially one people in his view. i makes not a difficult decision for him to make even what he believes situations. it's the situation to read that that's what i was trying to uh to, to get to that a relation to that particular point. but actually, you're right, you mean, you quoted what pollution didn't to didn't codes. ready were in 2014, actually issued from industry, strong and tremendous statesmanship. right. which was actually so disappointed when he didn't continue down the path of the site to the government. i think that's true . the roberts to what i mean, diplomacy for the sake of diplomacy is the ruler 5. i mean,

ultimately the diplomacy should sir. uh, some practical goal. yeah. what else could he have done to uh, you know, make sure that the rushes concerns not only listen to but actually taking into account because, you know, it doesn't get higher. the meeting with the american culture part of the machine saying essentially, well, you know, uh, we will do what we will do i, i see the rest of it. okay, so what we're talking about is the less than the response to the russian security proposal. so december, the $22021.00. yeah. now i think actually that had been some progress in those negotiations. did you recall when punch in the, in the february i had a conversation with rob, rob, we said lever, well, where are we? oh is that the different market modes? and like i said, no this, that they're still, we should still continue with these with this because yet we basically go through, i should truck. and i said that that despite the right of the policy was actually

see some results, right. and not because of the some results there was a possibility of more results in the future of the switch it back to you into a minister of foreign minister level. foreign minister alarm roof is not responsible for the secures, are 1st solo and human doesn't receive the, the security and briefings the president receives. so, you know, a manual put is in a circle pick many people with input ends in a circle, were shocked and afraid of these action as most of us here in russia, because it isn't consumables. for many russians still that we wouldn't be in war of, of our ukrainian neighbors. but at the same time, uh, you know, i, i bring back the, that's the question. what kind of a negotiated outcome would you welcome and do you think would how to uh, sort of turn the, the course of events in some other more positive direction. yeah, i do. uh okay. we can, we can offer you just point back and forth. brett, uh i,

i would just like to choose this. actually. i think that i can see what he knows now about, well actually happens as a result. what position did they advertise? the consequences in the kind of war that he's had to fight. i think that he was, he wasn't comfortable i think he was, he was decided that a lot prudent course of action would be to continue with the diplomacy, at least for least slightly lease for awhile. no, no, no. the lease has to kind of set the dispute very consistent in saying yes, he recognizes the consequences after she takes responsibility for i still think his eroticism by suspect that actually um the crystal at the end of february 2022. i don't think he would have been, he was taking this decision decision for but anyway he, he has to have this for looking question. i was not arguing retrospectively about what might happen whether diplomacy could've succeeded with his calculation. was

the correct one um, a lot with the did the key issues. what happens next steps is how do we actually, how, how does this more comfortable then to a secure piece of do we repair relations between russia and the west, another company they live, and those are actually very good questions. and uh your role in the prior to this operation who didn't have the reputation for being a realistic and pragmatic decision maker, perhaps to print matic. so that the sum of is uh, less than counterparts. believe that he would never take a kinetic military action to defend the country's interest. but judging from your current understanding of his pragmatism and use your best judgment on that, not none of us have crystal balls here. how far do you think his vision uh, off a goals, costs and means of this operation go? what do you think he sees, or what do you think would be in russia's best interest? uh, as far as the end of this operation is concerned,

yeah. hockey. okay. the printing started, this will, secretaries look, the pollution is also going to be the person that ends the floor, right? if, if the west and if the ukrainians would need to actually, to, to, to the gulf shrikes on the, on the, on the states. serious, serious basis. i think that would help to discuss what we think about we can know what specs you like about what might happen. but i also think we need towards us actually. okay. especially like, let's also see what we'd like to happen. what do we want, right for? why won't happen now? i want to watch come to an end, as soon as possible. be realistic about it. so the territory that is occupied, but by, by russia will remind paul of russia and i won't be actively you trying to get security to, to be neutralized, which is it brought to interesting. but i also wanted to get security guarantees to copy. i think it requests massey by how slow reconstruction. i'd like to see your

current becoming a magic member d u if not. and i thought i'd like to see a whole series of a completely different system of security, you know, developed in your okay, so that, that's my tongue, like in transportation are about how we can read the book. okay. that the realistic problem that read probably what happened, but it was more likely it's a very slight, messy as to the war in the form of the, you know, some kind of a slower the groups will some pool. the 1st present conflict, which would be what we might say present. so that's, that's a, that's a very long well professor roberts, we have to take a very short break right now. but we will be back in just a few moments station the the,

the, the, [000:00:00;00] the, [000:00:00;00] the

welcome back to was a part with geoffrey roberts, professor emeritus of history of the university college court. professor rubbers before the break, we were talking about the possible solutions and your very expensive christmas wish list for, for ukraine and europe and the everybody else, which i think we agreed on not very is not very realistic. but speaking of a frozen conflict, what i'm hearing a lot of from the russian uh thinker is, and observers and even decision makers is that they, they, they are strongly disappointed and the effect angry by the way, the holding the conflicting procedure, the piece talks have been exploited by the ukranian and the western side as a means off uh, the supply more weapons to ukraine as a means of training that you're creating and military, but not as the as something that they actually committed to. that is a trying to institution,

jenny and piece. do you think it because you are and i the observer and i think you are trying to be a fair in this process. a fair observer in this process. do you think the russians contrast the west or the ukrainians with any other negotiations until they accomplish what they deem as necessary for their security goals? the few trees of the west is going to be forced into a sci fi and then some kind of a piece that's meant by russian military success. let me brush it. he's willing to walk slowly, but surely, i'm not sure what form a russian military defeat of your credit is going to take you comfortable between catastrophic, a thoughtful for a week. right about fairly confident. those don't have nothing in the circumstance, then they will be quite use and with will be forced to negotiate. and i think also in that kind of circumstances that you have your voice, which is the west lot myself. i'll give you

a piece talk is the western restraint all to me for some kind of deal and i'll say i think those voices. ready will become we will become stronger, but yeah, but even in kind of like the rosy scenario, you know, with our christmas wish list, because i find you that would be a very risky basically, i'm up for russia to, up to think about, given even what's happening to deal with the mistrust a given broke to the grievance prep broken the premises, but i think the russia is going to, is a huge was going to lot i think roughly. so cannot to take another huge risk in actually ending what i might do some, some content please. i'm actually in not respect. um, you know, i need to do this, the right need to go later, right? pragmatic, rational apache, politically. it's like she might end up that kind of do so in what i'm kind of expecting, you know, despite some like polluted to reason,

an incentive search. when, when we get to the site for some kind of a safe fall under basic basic right. i believe i do. okay. i can be facing the street uh somebody told me or surgery refuse recognize, looks like i'm convinced this, the disability will be prepared to treat somebody compromises with your price and with the west. i have no doubt about that. but that you yourself road that uh, any idea of, uh, a peace settlement with their current leader in the kremlin would be absolutely repugnant to ukraine and not only through his leadership, but perhaps also to it's wider population. is there anything that the thing that the west could offer and provide for ukraine to make these deal these very bitter deal a little bit sweeter. the pressure point. yeah, dw isn't as low as continue to so long to stay because of less than simple for you credit the credit report on, on by using kind of what fi i have to cite

a surprise me surprise everyone probably surprised themselves, but they might be able to to fight it, slipped continues, will be coastal west and simple to wesley draws it simple resistance that you crate . you guys do basically calculations. that's what's gonna happen unless, of course you get some kind of um, it, so no lot people in ukraine which breaks to pass on through the ultimate masters on the nazi government. that doesn't. those was what was the most, what's coming? so what's kind of topics. yeah. so okay, yeah, i mean you, ukraine is west of purchases will be direct. katie and streaming tools, pacing got choices, but i think and then thought is what he's going to happen. and now i know that you are the one of the world's top specialist on styling and not many people know that the problem of your printing and nationalism was not the, as i was not dealt with even by styling. i mean, he tried very hard,

but he didn't succeed in the ukrainian nationalist, were hiding in the forest and burglarizing neighboring communities well into the 50 is long after a silence on death given the size in the attic, she was off your premium. the ask for us abroad in the united states in the united kingdom, in canada, and many other countries. i think it's pretty clear that the ukrainian factor will remain a factor of facility for 4 years, if not decades to come. do you think though it's going to be a problem just for russia or do you think there and they will come a time when it will become a western problem as well? because look, for example of the chechen problem in uh, in, in australia and the european countries, you know, if used to be a russian problem. now it's uh, a widespread security problem for the european union. and the same happens with the other supports for national lumens or religious moments. do you think sooner or later the,

the west will have to confront the ukrainian problem itself. but i think it's a problem for both restroom and the rest of the present time. you crank cheat, wesson's, right, it is very, very naturalistic. but as far as i can say, that extreme, much less than they are lost is the alters, then not the majority of the economy. i'm returning and talk the doors, but they, as you know, the bolshevik the majority within the russian population. and they have, they managed to turn the russian history in the direction of the because because my also because they also had a huge base of my spoke principal. the had tenure of support from abroad, by the way, with us as long as she could get by the way, we can discuss the history another time i, you know, i think the overall majority of ukrainian sleep will actually reconcile, reconcile, reconcile themselves to pace on either i don't disagree with the system of being

held hostage, but then even though she's not connected to me, i'm, i'm feeling i would try to do the actual date. i will resist any kind of compromise, any police pressure, any, any hands and, and will any last. so it's our last is, but i remind you, we commits, that'll be able to succeed in the political. i'm sorry if i'm relatively optimistic that sure if that can be a piece. yeah. good that, that it can quite, you know, we're rapidly developing to be 9 piece roll with an unstable and threatening situation. i have to say, i'm grateful to you for recognizing the day of the russian leader. and i think the wider russian population feels when they and they see all those new naps and marshes and symbolism in, in the ukraine. and it's hard for us to understand why would the west be so nonchalant about that while they're prosecuting the use of swastika know the swastika,

but the sort of hindus and symbols used for positive connotations. they do not allow these kind of symbol as be displayed at traditional came to ceremonies, but uh, for some reason in ukraine. ah, that's raises very little. are very few. i'm chose. why is that? well, let's go back to the discussion about 2 to motivation. yeah, because basically decision for was a strategic calculation. both is usually called was his perception of this what you cause an anti russia ukraine development with this, with this ultra nationalist, rustic phobic um it influences an anti rustic and by a site which was due credit which was the west, was perfectly happy to go along with that, i'm supposed to close, it's always to, to give to, to you. so let's use abuses of power is repression of opposition. politicians to the suppression of russian ethnic minority speakers. all talking like that uh, the rest of most of the church. as you may have heard, and that,

that's an anti russian complaint is to be gotten on each side, you cry for at least since 2014. but of course when, when, when savanski is elected president, you thought somebody that was tied to that situation, try to, i think on that day with this impulse of the progress of them. so you probably know, did you would replace reconciliation there be some kind of a settlement of delta ukrainian of your credit costs, but that didn't happen. the allowed himself to become prisoners of the out for us, he refused to negotiate, to commit the domain of agreement. so you can time warner blah stridently, nationalistic identity, russian, it himself so. so let everybody hope so. lensky is turned out to be a shift is off of your point. i'm probably one of the biggest is almost as a foot board for you try. i want to ask one last question as a historian, and i'm sure you know that the russians in particular, the russian president have the most respect for history. i mean, they,

they treat history not as some of you know, like filtered into the team themselves or, you know, to lie down uh on a couch with a history book. rather, it is taken as a field that directly informs domestic governance and foreign policy. and historically, as i'm sure, you know, most secure at this rather devastating security threats that took millions of lives of my countrymen came from the west. do you think that perhaps the russians have over invested, or perhaps the west has under invested in history as a basis for strategic decision making the time on record? this is actually side. i could do pictures of petty's store and then the money professional. gotcha. is the historians. um yeah, he takes tremendous entry, interest of the state. pardon me. uh yeah. shapes is perception. do you know the speakers,

the full historical or references so yeah. so history. sorry. um. yeah. yeah. the problem is that your, the west doesn't have to ship. it gives you, if you still have a very different gifts, every, every um, right off, you already have a phone view of history, all the restaurant, the name that's the one doesn't share has been 40 or 50. is it the way of saying that there was simply doesn't appear positive there doesn't know as well? no, no, no, no, that has to be wrong. no, no, no, they care about history base. there is that option of history. oh yeah. that is completely different from which is obviously put, he sees himself as rushes, safety. i just, i guess it is part of a, a kind of a long tradition of, of russian russian mega. so just in case have to subscribe to some notion of uh, being a savior. i mean, here you go to that position to do good for your people. what else i was using the word picture. typically, what was going to be say is it goes to the list of beauties completely different, but the self image or the perception of most russians or i or professional i,

i say, how does that take title? i see it was an, a new hitler. i mean, peers and i might have thought that you described it in the us history of that very distorted truck. and that's completely wrong here at the street in the inbox here. so, you know, we have possible in georgia by some perceptions. we have a class use of historical perspective, this little guy, well in russian sir referred to as the politics of memory. and it's, it's very troubling that we cannot then agree even on historic events anymore. but i'm grateful that we still can have these conversations. professor roberts, we have to leave it there, but it's been great pleasure and great honor for me to talk to thank you very much for that. thank you. i'm thank you for watching hope to hear again from the was a part of the

the, the, [000:00:00;00] the, the, we believe the war has been a strategic failure for ukraine. what that is, i'm sorry sir. d, excuse me, a strategic failure for, for ukraine. of the tongue twice sorted, mission of reality made just the hours ahead of the much voted nato summit being held in that the way near we break down most on top of the agenda. the gather