[000:00:00;00] the hello and welcome to was a part russian military operation in ukraine of those 2 markets. first anniversary having demo cadence, millions of lives on both sides of the conflict, inter before and after. how well do the protagonist understand the child, their motives and goals and we've been damaged already inflict if it's any reconciliation even possible? well, to discuss it, i'm now enjoyed by geoffrey roberts, professor emeritus of history at the university college court. professor robinson

is great to talk to thank you very much for your time. thanks for the invitation. as you pointed out in one of your articles at western media, i still watch with the theories and narrative. so what was on vladimir put his mind when he authorized this incursion into your brain. but according to you, they all missed one important factor which is put into the apocalyptic vision of a nuclear arm, few brain embedded in nato. what do you mean by that? and do you think that vision as apocalyptic as it may be, i have any grounding in reality? what will it will it will i describe that the purchase decision to go to well with your crime as a decision to, to have the type of preventative? what? right to prevent the continued build up of the nature ukrainian on. ready is on rushes, rushes border. yeah. so he's basic perspective was a, that build up was on the media,

read off branch or russia and read or long. so what would actually represent the next essential retribution prize? you is all going to the set this by the time it again sits sense of all because the russian, i have to type acting t cordite upfront. now, because it was the data problem will be even great. so the situation be western russia in the future. so that's, that, that's basically was a little but, but in the process of leading up to the decision, um, if there's a particular moment which i think might have to purchase calculations, you probably won't. because okay, so as over it will say well there was a threat we need to. ready it, we need to wait to prevent people, but obviously it was very risky. dangerous. i'm just, i'm such a huge defeated approaching somebody. but who is this particular moment they saw the immediate security conference that mid mid mid february,

whence landscape makes the speech of each kind of friends that you cry with quiet new nuclear weapons. and this is actually the 1st uh no comment on in the west. the rest of them do not stations, but what's the fact that the policy offering no truly operation is supposed to be a uniform policy, a as in doors by old international organizations. now, professor roberts, you also argue that to believe that he was backed into the corner by the west and to recognize that fact that you know, he didn't have many great options, was not to endorse his perception or not to approve the war as a policy. but simply a bit to the fact, but admitting to the fact also requires some degree of analysis off of the western policy because pushing your nuclear armed adversary into the corner. it's hardly prudent a weiss do you see any appetite for this kind of reflection in the west, especially given indeed disaster as uh,

consequences both for your brain and to some extent for the european union. the oh yeah, as you start it, as i am comments, i strongly attached with this. i see my site, my functions to try to explain what, what's coming on to, to explain people's motivations. right? and that's, that's why the tri state of relation to, to push it, and then the rest of the decision to, to attack of ukraine. having said that, as, as you indicated, that doesn't meet the site that i accept pollutants. russia now, and i agree with these calculations. i don't, i, i, for the very beginning, i to oppose the war and i continue to oppose to what i need to. and when we're having these discussions, we can travel, what was it, have you before from the discussions? that gives you that kind of pretty clearview about what's going on a well yeah, what kind of clips or actually just thousands of people to be killed wounded that ukraine has been a devastated. there is a, you know, a dark red,

all of the risk of them have the names and torture it every single day. thousands of ukrainian soldiers and russian soldiers died on, on the front. so we need to as far as i'm concerned, the war is id. last i needs to be brought to the 9th. i see it that says uh search . so the soon as possible. you transfer me over to the can i can i stop here here for just a 2nd because i think this is a very important juncture because when, whenever i have these discussions about security and morality, they're always sort of, intertwined in a way that isn't very difficult to make sounds because i don't know a single human being. who would say that war is a good thing. there is no one who approve the hor, i'm sure protection itself doesn't improve a war. but why don't you come to matters of national security of morality and ethics and, you know, they and they don't always play along with the, the peer, all the tests of commander in chief and wasn't as also the moral duty of any

commander in chief british commanders if an american commander in chief era, so from under each of our ukranian ones to defend the country, if they feel that as essential interest, that being threatened is also tomorrow, duty of citizens to actually judge the political agents of their decisions and their consequences. and it's tomorrow to take off, outside of the other side may to, to, to, to, to the sign of my judgement is that, that, that decision was wrong. that other possibilities of we solve the problem is to, to sort, we still present drugs. i don't, i don't see that i reach the edge of the road too much again. so that's my argument is that purchase students continued to pursue the pos pop of diplomacy. now as i said, the bus i disagree with lucy's decision to go to law. doesn't mean to say that i blame human entirety for, well, i know i,

i take it once as it is pretty slow without decision. well, i appreciate that would be not. ready in your boss, but all of us have responsibility to the situation as well. rough printing. uh no. i pulled the trigger out. what was the west, that loyalty discount, but by buddies night, so your credit military build up and brush as bold as it was. you crime, but by refusing to implement that meets we make story against 5 seems that what we've had, we've had the development of this competing to a proxy will up between russia and west. now, who wrote before that it's from put into apocalyptic perspective, going to warranty ukraine uh, bad in the, in ukraine to solve this country from becoming another. nathan breach had, was not a difficult decision to make. and you have the russians didn't make that decision in 2014. they didn't make that decision in 2020. and even in 2021. having a mass based very sizable contingent on the border with your brain. put an engaged

in the last round of diplomatic talks with his american counterpart. it was a violent which unfortunately left nothing. all you're sure that we should refuse, indeed apocalyptic. i would even say biblically apocalyptic visions. are you sure that it was nothing difficult decision for seem to me given every thank you, sad about the russians and the ukrainians being you know, essentially one people in his view. i makes not a difficult decision for him to make even what he believes, situation to the situation to be that that's what i was trying to put together. that's a relation to that. so that particular point. um, i think you're right, you mean you quoted what pollution you didn't to didn't go to war and 2014 actually issued from industries frank and tremendous statesmanship. right. which was actually so disappointed when he didn't continue down the path of the site to the

german. i think that's true. the roberts to what i mean. diplomacy for the sake of diplomacy is the ruler 5. i mean, ultimately the diplomacy should sir. uh, some practical goal. yeah. what else could he have done to uh, you know, make sure that the rushes concerns not only listen to but actually taking into account because, you know, it doesn't get higher. the meeting with the american culture part of the machine saying essentially, well, you know, uh, we will do what we will do i, i c p d, rush. okay, so what we're talking about is the less than the response to the russian security proposal. so to set that up twice for $21.00. yeah. now i think actually that had been some progress in those negotiations. i think you recall when punch in the, in the february i had a conversation with laboratories type lever will, wherever we, oh is that the different market modes? and like i said, no, this to this deal. so we should still continue with these with these negotiate go

see i should trucks and i said that that perspective items, the privacy was actually see some results, right. and not because of the some results there was a possibility of more results in the future of the switch it back to you into a minister of foreign minister level. foreign minister, alarm roof is not responsible for the secures are 1st follow in human, doesn't receive the, the security and briefings the president receives. so, you know, a manual put is in a circle pick many people with input ends in a circle, were shocked and afraid of this action as most of us here in russia because it is inconceivable for many russians feel that we wouldn't be in a more of of our ukrainian neighbors, but at the same time, uh, you know, i, i bring back that's, that's the question. what kind of a negotiated outcome would you welcome and do you think would how to uh, sort of turn the,

the courses advance in some other more positive direction. yeah, i did. okay. we, we could, we can all have to just point back and forth. breath. i, i would just like to put choose this actually. i think that i can see what he knows now about, well actually happens as a result. what position did they advertise? the consequences in the kind of one of these types of thoughts. i think that he was, he wasn't comfortable, i think he was, he was decided that from la prudent course of action would be to continue with the diplomacy, at least for least lately. nice for awhile. no, no, no, no. he says, i would say that is be very consistent saying yes, he recognizes the consequences of after he takes responsibility, but i just don't think it's the right decision by suspect that actually um yeah, i had a crystal at the end of february 2022. i don't think he would have been, he was taking decisions decision for but anyway he, he has to have this for looking question. i was not arguing retrospectively about

what might happen whether diplomacy could have succeeded with his calculation. was the correct one. um, uh, a lot did the key issues. what happens next steps is how do we actually, how, how does this will come to an end to a secure piece of do a repair relation between russia and the west and our company they live. and those are actually very good questions and you wrote the power to this operation who didn't have the reputation for being a realistic and pragmatic decision maker, perhaps to print matic. so that the sum of keys uh, wasn't counterparts believe that he would never take a kinetic military action to defend the country's interest. but judging from your current understanding of his pragmatism and use your best judgment on that, not none of us have crystal balls here. how far do you think his vision uh, off a goals, costs and means of this operation go?

what do you think he sees, or what do you think would be in russia's best interest? uh, as far as the end of this operation is concerned, yeah. hockey. okay. let me put you started, this will secretaries look the pollution is also going to be the person that ends this floor, right? if, if the west and if the ukrainians ability to actually to, to, to the gosh, like on the, on the, on the states. serious, serious basis, i say no problem and discuss what we need to think about. we can know what speculate about what might happen. but i also think with each word, so it's actually okay, especially like little something what we'd like to happen. what do we want? right from why won't happen now, i want to watch come to this as soon as possible. be realistic about it. so the territory is occupied, but by, by russia will remind paul of russia. so i won't be actively you probably to get security to, to be neutralized which is brought to interesting, but i also wanted to get security currencies copy. i think it requests massey by

a slow reconstruction. i'd like to see your current become a magic member, be you, if not lights up, i'd like to see a whole series of a completely different system of security and you know, to get that to, to develop in your. okay. so that's like kind of like the transportation are about how we can have the book, but okay, not the realistic that the problem that brett probably what happened, but it was more likely it's a very slight, messy as to the war in the form of the you know some kind of a, c, r b a. well, some pool the 1st present conflict which would be what we might else like frozen. so that's, that's a very long well professor roberts, we have to take a very short break right now, but we will be back in just a few moments station. the

the the 1898 of the united states won the war against spain and gain control of the philippines. the people of the philippines held that the americans would help over throw spanish rule and a grand independence through the country. but the united states was by no means willing to give freedom to the philippines and saw it as just another colony. 1999 . the filipinos began armed resistance to the new occupying american troops were barely able to occupy the territory of the philippine republic. but that patriot started

a desperate villarille of war. washington was forced to sit in new reinforcements and triple the number of its troops on the islands. the us army suffered heavy losses. the americans took it out on the population. general jacob smith, in revenge for the gorilla attack on the garrison in the city of fall on ega porter to kill everyone over 10 years old. the monstrous gulf of terror, according to the most conservative estimates, lead to the death of about 200000 philippine notes. the americans manage to suppress the guerrillas only 14 years after the beginning of the war. but the united states was not able to stop the national liberation struggle of the filipino peoples in 1946. after the decades of the dramatic ordeal, the philippines was finally able to achieve the independence.

the welcome back to was appointed with geoffrey roberts pressed sir, americans of history as a university college. of course, professor rubbers before the break we were talking about possible solutions and your very expensive christmas wish list for, for ukraine and europe and the everybody else, which i think we agreed on not very is not very realistic. but speaking of a frozen conflict, what i'm hearing a lot of from the russian uh thinkers, and observers and even decision makers, is that they, they, they are strongly disappointed. and that in fact, angry by the way, the whole, the conflicting procedure, the piece talks have been exploited by the ukranian and the western side as a means off a supply more weapons to ukraine as a means of training that you're creating and military,

but not as the as something that they actually committed to that is a trying to institution, jenny and piece. do you think it because you are and i, the observer and i think you are trying to be a fair in this process. a fair observer in this process. do you think the russians contrast the west or the ukrainians with any other negotiations until they accomplish what they deem as necessary for their security goals? the future use of the west is going to be forced into a sofa and, and some kind of a piece that's meant by russian military success. let me rest your ease with you to walk slowly, but surely i'm not sure what form or russian. yeah. ready so would you say a few kind is gonna types take, feel comfortable between catastrophic, a thoughtful for the week, right? about fairly comfortable in those don't have nothing in that circumstance,

then they will be quite used and west will be forced to negotiate. i don't think also in that kind of circumstances that you know, your voice is the west side myself. i'll give you a piece talk is the western res, straight all to me for some kind of deal. stay in the home safe and i think those voices. ready will become become stronger, but yeah, but even in the kind of like the rosy scenario with the christmas least, because i find you that would be a very risky disagreement for russia to up to think about, given even what happened to deal with the mistrust. a given, broke to the grievance, prep broken promises, but i think the russia is going to issues was going to war. i think roughly we so cannot to take another huge risk in actually ending what i might do some, some content based. i'm actually in not respect um, you know, i need to see this device need to go later, right? pragmatic, rational apache,

politically. it's like she might not know that kind of do so in what i'm kind of expecting, you know, despite some of like putting to reasoning center search when, when we get to the site or some kind of see thoughts on color, please. basically, i believe i do okay. i can be facing the street. uh somebody told me, oh i started or research recognize, well, like i'm convinced is that the property will be prepared to teach somebody compromises with your price. and with the west i have to say no doubt about that, but that you yourself road that uh any idea of. 8 a peace settlement with their current leader in the kremlin would be absolutely repugnant to ukraine and not only through his leadership, but perhaps also to it's wider population. is there anything that the thing that the west could offer and provide for ukraine to make these deal? these very bitter deal a little bit sweeter. the pressure point. yeah,

dw isn't as low as continue to so long to stay because of less than support for you credit the crisis planning on by using kind of what fi i have to say a surprise to be surprised. everyone should probably surprise themselves, but they probably be able to, to fight it, slipped continues. well, because of western simple to wesley draws. it simple, resisted that ukraine is a guy suit based in calculations. that's what's gonna happen unless, of course you get some kind of um, it, so no lot people in ukraine which breaks to pass on to the ultimate masters on the nazi government. that doesn't, those was what, what was the most, what's going? so what's kind of topics? yeah, so okay. yeah, i mean you, ukraine is west of purchases will be right. katie and streaming tools, pacing got choices, but i think in the thought is what he's going to happen. and now i know that you are the one of the world's top specialist and style and,

and not many people know that the problem of your premium nationalism was not the, as i was not dealt with even by styling. i mean, he tried very hard, but he didn't succeed in the ukraine. nationalist were hiding in the forest and burglarizing neighboring communities well into the 50 is low after a silence on death given the size and the attributes of ukrainian. they ask for us abroad in the united states in the united kingdom, in canada, and many other countries. i think it's pretty clear that the ukrainian factor will remain a factor of facility for 4 years, if not decades to come. do you think though it's going to be a problem just for russia or do you think there and they will come a time when it will become a western problem as well? because look, for example of the chechen problem in uh, in, in australia and a european countries, you know, if used to be a russian problem. now it's uh, a widespread security problem for the european union. and the same happens with the

other supports for national lumens or religious moments. do you think sooner or later the, the west will have to confront the ukrainian problem itself? i think it's a problem for, for both restroom and the rest of the present time. you crank cheat, wesson's, right? it is very, very nationalistic, but as far as i can say, extremely serious than they are. knox is the whole trust. they're not the majority of the economy. i'm returning and talk the doors, but they as you know, and both of the majority within the russian population and they have, they managed to turn the russian history in the direction the because because by also because they also had a huge base of mass popular support available had tenure of support from abroad by the way, with us as long as she could get by the way, we can discuss the history another time i, you know, i think the overall majority of ukrainian sleep will actually reconcile, reconcile,

reconcile themselves to pace on either i don't, i don't disagree with this, them being held hostage. but then even though it says, dr. nash, just me i'm, i'm feeling i would try to do the actual date either. what was this any kind of come from us? any peace pressure, any, any hands, an end table, any last service or loss is but i remind to be committed. so be able to succeed in the political likes to stop it from relatively optimistic that your, if that can be a piece, the good that, that it can quite, you know, we're rapidly developing for the 9 piece roll with an unstable and threatening situation. i have to say, i'm grateful to you for recognizing the day of the russian leader, and i think the wider rushing population feels when they they see all those new naps and marshes in the symbolism in, in the ukraine. and it's hard for us to understand. why would the west be so

nonchalant about that while they're prosecuting the use of swastika know the swastika, the sort of him do isn't cymbals used for positive connotations. they do not allow these kind of symbol is being displayed at traditional kinda ceremonies, but uh for some reason in ukraine. uh that raises very little. are very few ios. why is that? well, let's go back to the other discussion about 2 to motivation. yeah. because basically, decision for was a strategic calculation. both is usually call was his perception of this what you cause an anti russia ukraine development with this with this ultra nash. ready rustic phobic um it influences an anti rustic on by a site which was due cry which was the west was perfectly happy to go along. we've been supposed to close as well as to, to go to, to you. so let's use abuses of power is repression of opposition. politicians to

the suppression of russian ethnic minority speakers. all of that might not come to the the russian orthodox church as you may have heard. and that, and that's an anti russian complaint is to be going on each side, you crying for at least since 2014. but of course, when, when, when soleski is elected, president chief of somebody that was tied to that situation, try to go that with this impulse off of the progress of them. so you cried, you know, did you would replace reconciliation? that'd be some kind of a settlement of delta ukrainian up you're quite across. but that didn't happen. he allowed himself to become prisoners of the out for us. he refused to negotiate a 20 percent. the demit agreement, secret time warner, blah stridently, nationalistic identity, russian. it himself so, so let everybody hope so. lensky is turned out to be a shift is also your point. that company, one of the biggest is almost as of a foot board for your client. i want to ask one last question as a historian,

and i'm sure you know that the russians and particularly the russian president, have the, at most respect for history. i mean, they, they treat history and not as some of you know, like filtered into the team themselves. or, you know, to lie down uh on a couch with a history book. rather it is taken as a field that directly informs the domestic governance and foreign policy. and historically, as i'm sure, you know, most secure it just rather devastating security threats that took millions of lives of my countrymen came from the west. do you think that perhaps the russians have over invested, or perhaps the west has under invested in history as a basis for strategic decision making the time on record, this is actually side. i think you took it as a buddy store and then the money professional is the historians. yeah, he takes tremendous entry. interest of the state is pretty much. yeah. shapes is

perception. do you know the speech is a full historical the references. oh yeah. so history, sorry, um yeah, yeah. the problem is that your, the west doesn't have the ship. it is you. if you still have a very different gifts, every, every um, right off you. every bad thing, phone view of history. all the restaurants kind of the, you mean that's the was, doesn't share seems important to you of history. is it the way of saying that there was simply doesn't appear public if there are, doesn't know as well? no, no, no, that's the key wrong. no, no, no, they care about history base. that is the option of history. yeah. yeah, that is completely different for pollutants. obviously, cruelty sees himself as the russians say, if you have just i guess. yeah. you father a kind of a long tradition of, of russian russian mega. so didn't quite have to subscribe to some notion of, uh, being a savior. i mean, here you go to that position to do good for your people. what else i wasn't using

to, to the picture? typically, what was going on to the side is because the list of beauty is completely different . but is the image or perception of most russians rival or possession? what i say hymns that dictates that i say it was a new hitler. i mean peers and i like that you just drive it in the history of that very distorted truck. and that's completely wrong at the street in my inbox here. so, you know, we have possible in georgia by some perceptions. we have a class use of historical perspective, this little guy, well, in russia and sir referred to as the politics of memory. and it's, it's very troubling that we cannot then agree even on historic events anymore. but i'm grateful that we still can have these conversations, professor roberts, we have to leave it there. but it's been great pleasure and great honor for me to talk to thank you very much for that. thank you. and thank you for watching hope to hear again from the was

a part of the the, the, [000:00:00;00] the, the nato summit officially takes off. in lithuania, the host nations presidents have said ukraine's prospect of joining the military block. still remain now to avoid all nathan then to pump up tea up with evan mood, devastating weapon supplies. we have for me to the new parliament amend box to insist