as well, it is, there are a lot of risk as you pointed down your opening. but at the same time, those risks in the near term are more mean than reality. right? uh, global the dollar sol settles, 90 percent of global trade. most funds are sold denominated and you know, buying a, the triple a rated that's such like the, the, the, the, the, the us treasury and whatnot. there's a lot of money that wants to get out from underneath the dollar system, but it's going to take a long time for that to happen. and we're seeing all these steps being taken today and they're laying the foundations for it. but it's not necessarily a thing that's, you know, going to change tomorrow. and this is, i think, one of the, the, the, the issues that we have, the kind of the big disconnects we have to rectify, in our, in our thinking here, a long term on the dollar, bare short term on the dollar bull. it all depends on what timeframe you're talking about. well,

and time is obviously very important. it all depends on current events and what is happening in, in the relationships between the various countries. but currently the u on seems to be the most popular currently being talked about to compete with a dollar from other countries. and why do you think this is as well? just because china has the most vibrant economy outside of the united states. right . and they have the balance sheet room at the people's bag of china to expand the currency and expand the use of its currency through the disney. i'll do the selling of, of you on backbones and whatnot. dominated bonds in order to facilitate a growing a global trade. settled a new one and then as long as the chinese act trustworthy with their trade partners, then they're going to be willing to hold those bonds as foreign exchange. you know, in the foreign exchange reserves, as they build up, we are trades up as it is being i was able to trade with them. this is the ways this, the system is going to build up exactly the same way the dollar replaced. the british

pound of interest so much. well, it is interesting because a lot of people feel like they might have more confidence in the u on, based on the fact that when it's backed up by so what exactly is it backed up by and is it actually hurt the dollar for several decades is supposed to be backed up by gold, which we know is more of a fantasy than actual reality to mount the chinese or standard old reserves. i think they play fast. so what's what, how much go the actually have? i think they, they, they use that they use analysis of how much go backs we have back in the one in the foreign exchange reserves as a political and geopolitical tool. and so far as actually been to the dollars advantage, to be honest with you, because i think they're massively under saving their goals research in order to keep their currency and all right. and on an exchange rate that they want it to be . i don't really believe at this point, i think on some one of the things as kind of under being uh, that's an undercurrent to this discussion is whether the chinese care about the us

dollar chinese. you want exchange rate as much as they care about the chinese one versus all of their other emerging trade partners, such as the all the entire 5 like the top, the tie bought the malaysian ring. it the single board dollar, right. those are very important currencies to the trainings and it's 4 years. the chinese have been really managing their ext, the exchange rate of do you want the real effect of the sure exchange rate, what's known as the rear. and you can look this up on the st. louis status update on this. they manage that far more costly than they managed, the dollar e one trade, i think honestly there's a divorce coming that is desired by both sides. but the us and china as far as how much we have either a couple of our economies. and that divorce is the terms of divorce are being discussed right now. what's interesting, i think you bring up that divorce, but just like with any divorce is always the children that set for the most. so what happens if the child lives in united states economies do have this divorce do

what happens if we have a diversified central, the currency that can, there is no longer a central currency. they both when, what is the rest of the world to have to deal with? well, is that what has to happen that is that the united states, these, the 3 gets balance sheet, right? this is part of the reason why the fed as raising interest rates. it's part of the reason why the fed as engaging in aggressive and it's a tightening id freaking their balance sheet, allowing the stock of us risers that they owned to run off their balance sheet and to try and do you leverage the us balance sheets such that there aren't so many dollars floating around the world, such that as this divorce takes place, we don't see a dramatic co ops in the dollar. and again, i think this speaks to the way the chinese have been handling this change and they've been handling it. and what it looks like to me, a very responsible way they, they, and they have to because they are dependent upon global, afraid to continue there, just as we are, dependent upon the dollar to continue to flow around the world. so this is a, it's

a game of, it's not a game of chick and it's a game of pushing paul. right? they're going to d dollar eyes, the sum of age, some of africa. and by the same token, we're going to be dollar. we're going to accept that to dollars extra, at least the bed is and we're going to accept that the dollar is ation and we're going to try and we're talking retire. some of these dollar denominated. that is to 1000 of the, the demand that's out there. and you know this, the system won't, the system will change, and it will have re, we'll have a regional courtesy box, which is an asymptote to, frankly, the global us that run the by the ministration. and that's the source of attention, which is part of the reason why we see so many people at the leadership level in the united states pushing for more over time. well, it's interesting you bring that up because there's also like you said, geo political implications, and all of this, china hasn't aggressively purchasing gold recently, whether they're telling us completely. but you see this as countries like china and others actually trying to protect their economies from sanctions, which are possibly could be put in place by the us in the future. because they're

looking at the past. and this threat that the u. s. n. e u constantly gives to other countries of sanctions. they all agreed of good. completely, the, the, the seizure of $300000000.00 of brushes, foreign exchange assets in february, or march of 2020, to the opening of the russian ukraine. conflict was a watershed moment in human history and to make no doubt about no big make, no doubt about it. like this was a watershed moment where everybody around the world said, wow, okay, it's one thing to go after venezuela or ron. they are not the officers and they are not major players in the world economy. the russians are the supplier of the marginal barrel of oil and the marginal thermal gas and the marginal single work unit. if you rainy, i'm and a pound of tungsten and pounded pakenio ends in many ways, aluminum in the world. these are the commodities and grain even now. great. these are the commodities on which the entire world economy runs and operates. and you

just sees $300000000000.00 worth of their foreign exchange, as you just invalidated the entire post, bretton woods world of we can have competing currencies that based currencies holding each other's dep is reserves. you're just using validate that entire system . so of course, there's now a fundamental change in the way people are thinking about how they do business because we've made the dollar now a weapon to use against the people who say, you know what, we disagree with you. and there are now other powers in the world. it was that was fine when we were the effectively the uta power super power with open capital markets, the only one with really a super power with open capital markets. the ussr did not have an open capital market, whereas china today is now a rival, and that was that sense and has allies, the most notable of which are russian, ron, because of their massive producers of vital commodities that will power the breed

of the onboarding of their middle class of their people into the middle class, thereby changing the dynamic of how commodities flow around the world. and ultimately, it's the trade in commodities. that is what governs what currencies are going to be dominant and what that people are going to be willing to hold. and that's the issue . and so it's, i think it's right that jerome powell is trying to shrink the balance sheet and clean up our our clamp things on the monetary side. and of course, congress is to do their job and that this will side and in many ways that's, that's 90 percent of what put in n g complaint about to where you from militarism. so it's like once you back off, once you back off of the monetary, right, all angle on this, then all of a sudden the military angle becomes a lot less threatening to everybody. and we can negotiate the terms of the divorce without a world war. well, tom, you bring up some great points, hold on, because i want to follow those up after the break. also after the break,

we're going to continue this conversation and look at the effect this is having on the relationship between china and united states. the i think yours was the jersey. all you probably used to sleep will actually reconcile, reconcile themselves to based on the system of the, you know, health hostage. but any analysis on my phone, i would try to do the showing that i that will resist any kind of compromise, any pressure, any, any mental, any last thoughts are lost. and that reminds me to mix the feels succeed in the,

in 1884, the german empire began its colonial invasion intent. and maybe from the very start berlin, encourage the white colonists to settle in south west africa and take away the best land from the local drives. the germans were actively draining natural resources and using the local population as a cheap labor source. this was causing major protests and led to a rebuild your in 19 o 4, they hear arrow, and nama drives rebuild against the german colonial rule. kaiser wilhelm the 2nd was fully determined and ordered to suppress the rebellion with the up most severe a date against the inhabitants of nan. maybe

a germany through is 15000 well equipped army all around the country. concentration camps were built in humane medical experiments over citizens were conducted within the period of 4 years. the german scaled up to 60000 people, among which there were 80 percent of the here railroad tribe, and 50 percent of the number dr. the events in south west africa are called the 1st genocide of the 20th century, stand not without reason. park compared to the holocaust just 2 decades later after the massacre in nam may be hitler's the solve unit foot on the same brown colonial uniform which puts the world into the chasm of the 2nd world war. the welcome back. we're talking today with tom longo, who is a financial analyst and a blogger about the potential fall of the us dollar. what is going to replace it?

welcome back. com. you know, i want to continue this conversation that we were talking about. obviously, the geopolitical assets that are happening in this debate, you know, is this debate about the dollar versus the u on happening globally causing tensions between united states and china, and possibly the united states and the other countries who are deciding to do trade with china not in the us dollar won't certainly, and it's always been that way. i mean it, the, one of the critiques of us foreign policy is that anybody who decides they want to get off of the dollar reserve standard. i've in either oil, the oil trade or, you know, threaten to back the currency with gold or whatever seems getting bated with the next 6 to 6 right month, right? that. and then that's when going going on since clinton ministration is nothing new . the question now is whether or not that system still has the same level of efficacy that it had then right? and because today the world is a lot different, we now have china with when you, when you think about g, d, p,

and purchasing power parity times not in namo terms in purchasing power parity. what that g d p. what that spending buys you, you, you have a completely different view of the world, then you current, then we currently have the number. the big one is that the russians are, have a bigger economy than the germans. right? so that's a big, that's a big one. the so do brushes not versus the economy is not the size of texas. it's not, it's might, it's more like 20 percent larger than might be germany is. so, and the same thing was with the chinese and their, their economy. today we have a different world, and so sadly, the same people who are in charge for the old policy are continuing to try and take that same policy and push it into the 21st century. and the only other option now is to continue to escalate. because small complex and small threats like freezing the russians risk of foreign exchange, us assets didn't work to cow the saudis,

for example. so these things are all constantly happening and these are the skirmishes between east and west, where proxies are constantly going on, most notably now you crane. so you don't want me when you ask a question like that. it's like of course it's about the currency. it's about the, the settlements of trade, it's about the ability of the west to continue to use dollars or dollars substitutes as the means by which to enslaved through the use of debt. it's whatever smart, whatever country they want through that, that and do effectively neo colonial process of, of the i m f in the world bank. that is the thing that everybody's trying to protect, frankly. and we're starting to see the chinese and the russians. and the ronnie as well as for except challenge that in places like egypt, south sudan, and others, and most notably now even pakistan. so now there's

a fight between the civilian and military. i'm the institutions in pakistan, which is a very important part of trying to strategy to united central asia under a new you know, new you want based standard, which is interesting that you bring up the fact that it's the growing strength of these other countries that are actually allowing this debate to happen about getting away from the us dollar, but a large part of this also has to do with opec. how is this going to affect opec and where does opec stand looking for? what is in opec's best interest? uh, what's the best best interest to stop using the dollar? it's really just that simple. and they're doing the saudis are making noise about, you know, taking other currencies and they will, the iranians have used the, i've used the rouble and gold through the circus banks. and now the one in order to get around, you know, using the dollar in order to pretty energy into the central country that needs to all of their financial instability. and targeting comes from the fact that they

don't produce much in the way of their own energy. in the same india is got the same problem, right. and so now, you know, india and russia are working out terms of, of how to do business outside of the dollar. india is always buck this. even going back to the obama administration, when obama kicked around out of swift in 2012, you know, india and, and around were doing trade in among beans and washing machines and the rest of that in order to get the oil into india and oil out of ron and you know, spare parts and whatnot, but they need.