a global demographic changes refers to shifts and trends in the composition distribution and characteristics of the population around the world. that these changes are influenced by various factors, including for to any rates, mortality rates, migration patterns and associated economic factors. however, there is nothing which has more of an impact on a demographic pattern in mankind and the choices of the most powerful and delete sky know hughes, and this is $360.00 view. let's get started. the, to help us discuss global and demographic trends and what the influencing factors are. we're joined by and bradley sherman brothers, founder and ceo of be a super age, a global strategic research and advisory firm helping public and private

organizations understand the challenges and harness the opportunities of demographic change with a focus on the population who is aging is also the author of the super aid, how long are life spans are changing every thing we know about work life and learning. and david, also co founder and managing partner of economy for where he led to business development in asia and europe, and served at the a rp. the world's largest organization dedicated to improving the lives of owner people. we're here with that actually the director of global partnership and engagements. welcome brad, the quite the resume that makes you an expert in this area. so i want to start off . do you see a difference in what it, what has impacted major and global demographic shift from the past and what we're seeing today. this is the 1st time in history. we're populations are aging as fast as they are. in fact, in many countries now, one and 5 people is over the age of 65. but aging is just the prelude to population

contraction, which is actually happening in the number of the worlds biggest economies, including russia, china, and japan. so we're dealing with a lot of dynamics right now that are really up ending what we consider to be normal, the normal world and a normal economy. and because of that, we have to shift our thinking about who's able to work when they can be consumers. how we engage people in society as a whole, and whether or not g d p is really the only measure for society success. so really it all comes down to the dollar always comes down to the dollar no matter what even in this day. okay, so what do you find to be the most positive trend? reason for a trend like this to happen and we're going to start with the positive side. there's always positive. it's the 20th century is a success story. we extended human longevity during the 20th century and large part because we took care of kids. once we were able to keep kids alive, they were able to reach adulthood. they were able to get to old age. we built these

wonderful social welfare systems. the economy grew dramatically. these are all positive things. these are things we should harold, the successes of our society. the challenge is that we haven't adjusted them to accommodate what we call the new longevity. the fact that the majority of people now will live into their sixties and seventies and a good number of people who live into the eighty's now as well. believe it or not, people over the age of 80 are the largest and fastest growing demographic in the world. that's incredible. compared to the passenger side of it. exactly. most people didn't get there and were not ready for it, as you say. and what area do you feel like where the least prepared probably in the care sector, that seems to be the one that everyone focuses on right now because population change involves 2 things. one is the aging of the population, this longevity, dividend that we're getting here. but also we're having fewer babies and we've been having fewer babies now for about 25 years. well, those children are now adults, they're working. and there are simply not enough of them to go around so,

so what's happening in our economy? the more broadly is that the lack of work, or is of the inability for people to businesses to feel jobs is causing inflation to rise. the fewer people that we have mean fewer people to take care of those older adults that might be in need. so it is a bit of a challenge and we're trying to muddle through it right now. no one has the right solution quite yet. could we have been better prepared for this man that we knew the people are going to get older? they were living longer? could we have actually done a better job of basically setting up the infrastructure beforehand to sure we could . but we have to remember that we'd like to wait. we'd like to wait until there's an actual crisis at hand. believe it or not, demographic change grew up with climate change, their siblings there by products of the industrial revolution. could we have done something to mitigate climate change? 25 years ago? yes. did we know the same holds true for demographic change? we knew this was coming. it's been coming now for 25 years. in fact, 1st grade,

so been been declining now for about 200 years, with the exception of the baby boom. these are a long term trends. we are well aware of them and we chose to do nothing. so there are many countries are experiencing an increase in the proportion. i just have older adults to decline fatality rates and improved health care. what have felt, do you think this demographic shift not only poses to health care, but also the pensions and the social support system that these governments are going to be expected to take care of these people when the business, the private sector can't? well, i think within the health care sector, we're gonna look at radical transformation literally overnight, because everyone who's anyone who's throwing money into this right now because they know it needs to be fixed. we don't have enough bodies to take care of the people that are there with the economy more broadly. i think we have to look at a future that's much more inclusive. we talk through inclusive through the lens of diversity in terms of gender, race, sexual orientation, gender identity, but we rarely include older adults in this conversation. if we think about the fact

that we're not only living older and longer or also living healthier, that means that we have extra years that we should be working. we should be contributing. but that's an exciting thing, but we tend to shop people half of $65.00. why we show people off at 65 when they have at least you know, 101520 years of good, healthy years ahead of them. it's, it's, it's kind of ludicrous, were cutting out possible workers and possible consumers for the economy. okay, so while the global age, as you mentioned, might be actually increasing. the fertility rates are also declining globally resulting and low birth rate, smaller family sizes. do you think this could also be a good thing? you mentioned climate change and why do you think this is happening? but you know, climate change, pete, there's theories, the climate change fits into this somehow lower sperm counts for men, for example. there's also the reality that our life course has changed, and people used to have babies and their teens and their 20 smell. they have them in their thirties and they're 40 is in fact women over the age of 40 are the fastest growing group of moms in the world right now. that's pretty different. and

when you start late, you're more likely to have fewer children to on. but what does this mean globally? well, literally every country you go to today, i don't care what the geography is. the birth rate is in decline. now it's different from place to place in a country like niger, every woman on average is having 6.89 children can you imagine, right? but if you go to south korea, which has the lowest birth rate in the world, they're having point $78.00 children per one. so what's a radical difference in terms of where babies are being born and where populations will grow versus where populations will actually contract? what do you think is the impact on this, or why is this happening? i mean, is it because the economy? because the economic systems are mentioned, can handle it. lower income countries are having more, which basically puts on the backs of those that are of other countries. perhaps, you know, what caused demographic change to happen? well, we can look at a number of different variables. the 1st and foremost is probably organization and

the industrial age, the idea of a family farm that you actually need children to work on, children were economic tools back then. they still should be by the why. i think you can find that in arkansas right now is the governors actually lowered the age for, for people to worked on to 14. well, my grandfather entered the coal mines at the age of 14. i don't think we're going in that direction. okay. is this a good day? because, i mean, there was a lot of of, there was a reason why we took the children out of the coal mines at 13 and 14 and put them in school. exactly. we believed in investing in youth because investing in youth was the future. well, what we did with all of these interventions, getting kids out of factories, getting them off the fields, making sure they had the stable, stable of food supply, making sure they're clean water. all of these contributed to children moving from a one and to chance of dying before the age of 18 to a nearly 9095 percent chance of surviving into adults. these are all good things, but what that did during that period was explode the global population. we went

from about 2000000000 people to 8000000000 people today. that is a disruptive change. now as we go into this new era, we're actually looking at a more historical norm for society, where we'll have slow growth in some nations, plateauing and others, and some decline in others to. we are still growing. here. we are still growing here in the united states were growing cars are birth rate is in to off that about 1.7. it needs to be a 2 point one to keep population study, but we still have immigration here. immigration is the story of america, and as long as people are coming in, the country continues to grow. well, you mentioned that we do have immigration here, but these are coming from less well off countries that are still continuing to produce more than just the one child that the americans select they can hold. so are we kind of setting ourselves up on this railroad disaster because to certain extent, who we can't afford the reason why people are not having more children. i believe here in america or in the western countries, they can't afford to have more children. it's, it's,

it's impact because they can't for it to do it. that's what a lot of people focus their energies on is the cost of having a child and my god, it is expensive, but the reality is people have more choices now than they did a 100 years ago. women are educated, women have the right to vote. women have the right to work on that change the dynamic we, we can have access to birth control and yes, even abortion and preventative. preventative birds. so when you take all of these things together, women are more in the driver's seat of their reproductive health. choosing or not to choose to have children, they're also economically viable. they're not, they're no longer dependent on demand. they're no longer the primary caregiver or the primary homemaker anymore. so because of that, the dynamic is simply turned around. and what does this mean for the future? well, not much. we've been on this trajectory for over 200 years of declining birth rates . i don't see a turning around any time soon unless we go back to an agrarian society and in a society it's very, as we say,

traditional values where the man is the bread owner. the woman is in the house and she takes care of the kids in the home. it's interesting that you bring that because this is a perfect transition. because post corner virus, we saw major exodus from an organization. you saw people moving out of the cities. are we seeing a reverse that has been to happen because of something like a global pandemic? yeah, we saw the reverse, but they were typically reverse is to nearby rural areas. so, district of columbia is a great example, because if you go out, maybe as far as richmond down into this in southern virginia, maybe the, the, the tidewater region you can get here by train. same for new york city, people going up into the hudson valley perhaps on the long island it's easy to get to. but in 3 quarters of our county is most of which are rural populations are in decline. that's outpaced birds. so it isn't a full reverse all also i think is people are coming back to the office and yes, they are despite what people want, they are getting pulled back into their office place. this is moving the needle

back, people coming into the cities, you just have to look at housing prices in major markets to know that there's demand to live in these places. okay, so let's try this back into how we started the conversation that at the segment about the aging population. knowing all of this, did we find that that elderly population that they moved into the cities as well, or did they stay where they were at and how are those communities handling? it's a mixed bag. boomers are a very large population. our happened historically 76000000 at one time. now they're down to about 69000000. in total. there was a move of older adults boomers in particular back into cities. but the largest percentage of boomers are still living in the suburbs. and this is problematic because a lot of time people want to stay in their home. the suburbs typically don't have the right infrastructure in place to take care of an aging population. they don't have the right transportation services. they don't have the right social services. all these things are missing from the equation in a city though, where you live in

a 15 minute neighborhood. i live just north of here and logan circle and i can get to 3 grocery stores within 3 blocks. these are a central services that neighborhoods need in order for people to live and age. well. okay, so now we look at these boomers as they're leaving these homes kind of in a suburb or suburbs to think that they're going into retirement homes. where, where are they going? everyone will enter most likely will enter nursing care. at some point. there isn't a preponderance of people going into care settings. if they don't have to, people tend to go into care settings when they're forced to, they have a fall or a major health of and perhaps they lose the spouse and become somewhat isolated and move for a to base that in some way. but the reality is, if you can stay at home, you want to stay at home. and most people want to do that. the good news is there are minor interventions that people can make and their own homes to make them level for longer periods of time. where you can actually build that runway for your

independence for longer periods of time. and these are minor modifications and they actually look really nice. you could hide them in the design of the kitchen or a bathroom improving the lighting schemes, making sure basic things like the corners of carpets and rugs are taped down. so there's no trip potential there. um, but eventually we all have to deal with the reality or most of us have to deal with the reality that we need care. we will need care at some point at the end of our lives. and is this happening? we're talking about transfer global trans, are you not only seeing this in western countries like the united states, u. k, what you're saying is in other countries, are they having following the same sort of line that the west is this something that we can all actually agree on is happening? yeah, it's a pretty universal thing. but again, because aging and long ivy are tied to industrialization, talking up modern economies. obviously, if you go into economies that are still developing primarily those in sub saharan africa, for example, or perhaps live america, people are still living in multi generational housing. they're living with their

grandparents, which means they're better off. they're kind of going back to what you're encouraging people to do is to keep at home, believe it or not, it's happening here in the united states to all be very slowly and just underneath the surface from the, from about 1971 till today. there has been a trend to go back into multi generational living with in one house. it eases the care burden on all parts of the family. a grand parents can take care of grandkids, adult children can take care of their parents. it really gets us back to a more harmonious way of living, but also a more traditional way of living too. because prior to the 20th century, that's all everybody left, right. okay, so then you're talking about that, what is the future? do you feel about we're talking about blue words leaving their hope a homes open? do you feel like this is going to have an impact on millennials? they might give them a better chance to own homes for the 1st time it does. it gives them a big chance. in fact, boomers hold about 40 percent of assets in real estate. they own about 40 percent

of the real estate market in this country. when they start exiting the real estate market, those homes will become available to more people that might have been kept out of the marketplace. this is a good thing for millennials and so you didn't even better thing for jen z. the short term thing that's happening right now is something we call the great wealth transfer. the great wealth transfers the move of assets from bloomers to their project to the children. and these are typically late gen xers like myself and early millennials. and what that's doing is it's giving this extra influx of cash and in the marketplace that wouldn't exist otherwise, think of it like a private sector stimulus. so all of a sudden these adult children that are millennials and boomers that got these gifts from their parents, are buying real estate, pushing up the prices even further. so in the next, let's say, 10 to 20 years, we're going to see some of these stabilizing in the real estate market. perhaps not in major cities, but certainly in rural counties. and certainly are in smaller cities across the

country to unless of course there's a really route, transformative piece of technology that allows that actually to work from home 24 hours a day. thank you. bradley sherman. because after the break, we're going to actually continue this discussion discussion as fast. so and looking at whether it was some world governments or actually manipulating demographic trends for their own benefit, and at the detriment of others staging the the i'm a film director, i've written many scripts during my career,

but i got really curious, couldn't neural networks collaborate with a human to make a documentary film the spring just had a promotion with somebody who was to reach out to the volume of sheriff of regents . this human more than so he was more let's do this. well, no, but i'll book you with a score 17. that's most of oversight. you still are used to finance through multiplan tables. look a lot. finally, probably for you loop in ports of literature, sort of by the way, we haven't introduced ourselves. i have the strangest feeling we've met somewhere before the the,

[000:00:00;00] the welcome back. you know, we're going to continue our discussion about global demographic trends with our expert, bradley, sherman, bradley. i want to go back this idea of immigration. do you feel that some of the policies of some countries are purposely driving out certain demographics into other regions? now these groups are usually, like i said, the more most poor or less educated, you know,

i have all the various roto agencies that we have. do you think it should be more of a watch dog on those receiving these immigrants rather than the accountability for the countries that seem to be pushing them out? you know, it, it, it's in the immigration is a really sticky, weird issue that we all get kind of consume with because there are no good answers . obviously people are leading for a multitude of reasons on whether or not people actually get pushed out. i don't think there's really good data on that getting pushed out in the other places. we are starting to see obviously the 1st climate refugees, island ations that are starting to move. but the reality is, is that, that we live in a global world now on. and the question is whether or not we're able to taking these folks on your own countries and bank them part of, you know who we are in the future. but it is the questions that are people not saying their own country, the ones that are leaving are usually the ones that are not necessarily prospected or taken care of on their own. so sides, not necessarily the case. i mean we,

we bring in a lot of really high level, high educated immigrants to this country. in fact, there are specialized programs usually regularly though, for the southern board along the lines that are doing this of not the non legal some way of doing it are the ones that i feel like are being pushed out because of government policies of their own kind we definitely government policies and in the govern. government policies are on a multitude of things like they, they don't have good social welfare protection for example. but they also might not have economic opportunity govern policy also might affect is caused by government policy, correct? government policy might also affect how um, in certain nations, in line america or central america in particular are dealing with, with drug dealers. right? particular that the cartels and if people feel unsafe, are coming here. so yeah, it does come back to government policy in, in a major way. because if you're living in a safe, prosperous, you're not going to leave it. why would you leave? right? why would you leave? of course, you know, one of the sub notes here is that one of the micro trends that i'm looking at very

closely right now is the emigration of americans to europe. it's a small number, right? and over to the okay, i've, i've, i've been reading where they don't even see a lot of excess of americans to london. yes. but it's not just london, it's southern europe, it's germany. they liberalize their labor laws over there. so it's a bit easier for us to move. they have no gun violence and they have wonderful social protection. so we're starting to see americans take europe up on this offer . and europe wants to have them because if they can get highly qualified, highly educated individuals in, they keep their societies flourishing. because people who are high income are always going to pay high taxes for do the maintenance. and i think that because of, from the american parent standpoint, the immigrants are coming in, especially southern border are the ones that don't have those economic opportunities. but the ones that are leaving united states are the, are highly of the ones that you would like to actually retain. there's an irony of there. so you know, for myself, there's always a country that's better than another, right? is very rarely one that always sits at the top. there isn't one that sits at the top now period that's address. there's still

a great value proposition here to put in the business power lines. there's still a great value proposition for pick immigrants in particular to come here. it's still seen as a land of opportunity for many well, well that's what we're talking about because in the world is the world war, ethnic racially diverse and prior civilizations have had with these terms. and why does this seem to be causing? in some cases, more conflict than being celebrated. as i see, there's a couple of different ways of looking at the probably the easiest one is through the lens of race and culture on americas. foundational culture was in slight people brought from africa and primarily european christian or jewish immigrants. that's what made of america. now the america's really become very diverse and their populations from latin america, from africa, from the sub continent, from asia, that a really come in and recent years and change the makeup of this country generations . he is the most of 1st generation we've ever had that's in america, that what about in china and even africa,

you're not seeing that sort of diversity now that is incurring and so are you seeing those demographic trends and the shift? how many, like what you're thinking and you have to take a look at china. china does not have large numbers of people going there. and people aren't interested in moving to china. and it's still on authoritarian government. it's still controlled by the state. it's or they don't allow it or they don't allow it really just don't allow immigration, but it's also amount of cultural. and so i'm on a cultural with a dominant racial group at the top, the hon. that it's very hard, even for chinese minority groups that exist within the country, 80 yourself them to actually find a place within that society. it's not welcoming to foreigners, you're always an outside of the same is true in a place like japan. a place like korea is opening up a little bit more africa. not really there. they actually get some immigrants from china in africa now. but for the most part, there are places in the world where people don't go. they're not interested in moving to. typically, people want to move to western highly industrialized social democratic countries.

that's what they want. we're the gold standard. and that's that. okay, so last question, i have to ask you, what is going to happen to these advanced nations? if people don't start having more kids, are they still going to be advanced to ensure we, are we doing more to encourage the necessarily you know, there's 2 sides of the coin. i'm having more children would take some of the burden off the health care system, for example, would continue to generate the economy. but it also puts more people into the pots that are drawing down resources. and we know that we're living in a time where rece were resource a poor, and it's harder and harder each year to, to take care of the global population. we're taking more from the earth and we can get back. i think on the other side of the coin now, what can europe do? um, europe has to manage their transition very carefully. they need to increase order work or participation. they need to look at immigrants as

a stop gap solution technology becomes very important in the coming years. they can protect what they have if they make the change. now, if not, and you probably remember this argument from rush, the, during the soviet era, the guns are better. what we're gonna have to choose. guns are all people. some countries are not going to be able to pay for the defense in the future. if they have to deal with the social welfare commitments whole, now they're showing that when what ownership, bradley, thank you so much for them is very insightful on everything. thank you so much. and you can find more about products work by checking out his latest book to cutting our demographic destiny the super age. now understanding and global demographic changes is crucial for policy makers, social planters, and governments all to anticipate and address challenges related to health care, social security, labor markets, and infrastructure. and these changes also have implications for economic development, cultural dynamics, and social structures at the global and national levels. accurate predictions of

where these trends are going to help shape policies which have a negative or positive effect on the shifting demographics of a region. it is a rocket science or even magic the 1st see what the future holds. have, are those empower too often make decisions for short term knowing they will not have to deal with the long term ramifications to say that he's and this has been your 360 view of the news affecting you. thanks for watching the spelling he's still looking through the journey of developing an identity, a national identity. there's, you know, we talked earlier about the vibrancy and the dynamics of the media. all sorts of

use and narratives have a chance to, to face and come to the for, but also has the downside in the everything is up for debate. nothing is agreed on the i started in 1983 session with my father on a young man. the site that's all exactly the same as a kid does when he goes out in the lake and the communities present for advantage with the ron real families and allocation for a really long time. my mom was pregnant with me still long winding and i grew up on long island. i've been having this issue since probably 1978 was my 1st year that i seriously pointed to the explained of, of, i am us is near historically a levels, growth rate has dropped when it's done and it's worse form has of leveling effect. and it has

a tendency to really just sort of strip away everything that's there. the way fisheries are changing. it's the way our country is changing. it's increasingly hard for small businesses to make it abundant. stocks are important. i mean, who wants to fish the last best? the message i would leave to you is the importance of not giving up the importance of working together and also the importance of taking care of your corner of the ocean. take a fresh look around. there's a life kaleidoscopic, isn't just a shifted reality distortion by power, tired vision with no real live indians. fixtures, design to simplify will confuse really once a better wills and is it just as a chosen few fractured images presented to this? but can you see through their illusions, going underground?

can the pumping billions of dollars into the neo nazi regime? does everything to further inflating the conflict to draw other states into the restroom president condemns western countries point 19 low conflict of ukraine port addressing the most of the conference on the international, secure, the was gonna say is k of is destroying the orthodox church. as you find the law enforcement since amongst presidents says that the key up a chest loved rock and as a v as an abrasive 7070 years of independence from british colonial rules. fremont