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[000:00:00;00] the, [000:00:00;00] the hello and welcome to cross ok. we're all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle, nato. it's a peculiar organization. it claims to be defensive military lines, but at the same time, claims it must constantly expand. add to this, the alliance is quite to project stability. in reality, it projects instability and in security and made russia its primary enemy, the cross sucking the upcoming nato summit. i'm joined by my guest nichol, i petro in kingston. he is a professor of political science at the university of rhode island in portland, we haven't been ripped. he is a freelance journalist and in london we crossed the income mackenzie. he is a visiting lecturer at the law school of the university of westminster are

a gentleman cross stock rolls in effect. that means you can jump any time you want . and i always appreciate nikolai, let me go to you. first of, you know, there's been a lot of, uh, there was a lot of talk about the ukraine, so got counter offends of. now there's a whole lot of talk about the upcoming summit. and bill is the nato summit, of course. and, but it's quite peculiar and yeah, and i'm gonna use that word. there seems to be a lot of double talk and ex, explaining what's going to happen there when nothing really much is going to happen . they're, they're going to throw a few bones to uh, to the ukrainians and other than that. and there's no membership in the cards. maybe no membership ever in the future. what are your thoughts as somebody to is approaching right. i think the game is lowering expectations for ukraine. i think i'm a senior polish official and just said not to expect too much. but on the other

hand, sometimes it turns out the united states to manage is through the o coersion and other on so on. pressure is to pull a rabbit out of the had it the last minute. this has happened before when it's been able to sell its own objectives in a way that seems appealing to others and then uh, hide from them of their, their long term implications. so i'm, i'm still very wary about what this upcoming nato summit might lead to. well, i think and let me go to you in london. i think god, nikolai, as usual, is spot on here and i'm, but what's interesting is, i mean rabbits, it'd be cool. it could be pulled out of a hat. wouldn't be really about ukraine. it would be about russia and this is what this is all about. go ahead and wanted. yes,

that's absolutely correct. so then i agree with the last, the comment that they, that the ukraine cop really expects more than the, the usual they will just simply be giving them a more promise of loans and have your nation while in the meantime, the ukrainian societies being the, you know, it's being disruptive and it's, it's, it's disruptive. it's a disruptive, a thing, as i think based no question of the ukraine become being a member, because they simply do don't fulfill any of the criteria for the soul map. so as you said, beads are, it is about so old about russia even at the expense. so the absolutes obliteration of ukraine as a nation states, as the of the, you know, the actual degradation of, um, uh, european society and, and, and european security too,

because that's not being addressed here. and we've actually create more in security because you will have a revisionist, so ukraine, i haven't, i mean, there's not a whole lot of logic involved in this here. those that want to push to give exceptions to ukraine to get into the alliance. well then there is a pay in your opinion more, i mean, who in their right mind wants that go ahead and portland i think that everybody kind of has to play a game where they all want to pretend that they wanted just for, for our purposes. but no, i don't think anyone actually particularly wants to start a war in europe. i mean if they wanted to do that, they've had ample opportunity and they haven't done it. so i could see. ready maybe even sending in some volunteers or something like that, but i don't think it's going to be any ukraine's definitely not going to join nato . no bid. and they've made that quite clear. okay, well let's go back to nikolai and in kingston. and then what is the long term

implications here? because, you know, it is a nato consent talk all or it wants about the future membership of ukraine. but that's the red line for russia. and that's why we have this conflict. and so, you know, it's almost kind of an echo chamber and it may tell land, okay, because the no matter what comes out to build is the russians have already made their position clear. and they're not going to budge from at least there's no evidence of it go ahead. nikolai, the whole lies, not in the current leadership, political leadership in nato countries, but in their successors. there are interesting movements of support, particularly in germany, with the rise of alternative parties to prominence that are very much

skeptical nato expansion. and the phrase is already been the use of forever wars that aren't going to be a burden specifically to german tax payers. and i think as germany goes, way if, if the conservative right wing in germany does come to power and sticks too. it's a skeptical agenda of on, on german foreign policy and 6 to reverse that. then i think we will show more courage along the same lines displayed in france and italy, which is basically their right wing parties have, have caved to the nato agenda. correct? yeah, well you, i'm sorry, i'm going to have to throw your own words back at you. i mean, you as a lot of coercive power. i don't think it will allow that to happen. i think maybe i think with nato land has to worry about is colored revolutions instigated by washington. if they don't stay in line, me guys go back to our guest in, in london it's, it's very interesting the term forever war has already been brought up here. and

that is, i think, really what's at play here. the mounted states doesn't want ukraine in nato, and of course it doesn't, because then it would take on obligations. but the, the status quote works for washington, just fine. they have no legal obligation, so security obligation, so to protect you, crane. but a good it'll, it'll probably russia on the behalf of an update to, i mean, it's a perfect scenario for washington. go ahead in london. yes, it's a, it's a terrible situation and i sealed it. so obviously russia is holding fast to it. it's always is. and they can only get more line since the previous piece over the years have been um, thrown out to the window. uh, best of luck to me. improvements in obviously, um show the records of the signed agreements. and so if russia wake sent out and i think that ukraine is on,

it's the dog which is being systematically, tragically destroyed in america, is just going to find a way of a band. and you, great, it's done that before to the south, vietnamese, the stomach to the codes of the guns. and that is also the unfortunate so afraid that the remains for, for ukraine. yeah. but not as i, i agree with our previous guess of the logic here, but this complex has been turned into an ex, essential conflict. okay. the u. s. last in afghanistan. last and the rack last of in libya, it'd be good and it had no real collateral damage. this is a very different thing. this is the do or, you know, i mean stilton berg. i've given it extending his term here. is it said recently in the last week or so, but this is all about china now. okay. i mean, this is ex, essential, it's not just a proxy war halfway around the world in,

in developing country. go ahead and portland, well land in this case, i mean, they've had this in planning for so long. you know, the, the profit asians against ukraine. go back all the way to the 1940s. it was when they, i believe it was the british you 1st made contact with the o u n in 1944, and they've supported them ever since. so i think this one's kind of a, a bigger deal for them was 88 of waste, like libya and syria. you can just kind of, you know, throw some things out there. and if it doesn't work out, she just leave. but ukraine, they've been so invested for so long that i think it's hard for them to pull out if there's weight. well, i agree here nikolai, i mean it's all about the rules based order. it's about a european values. it's about barrels garden, i mean, they've invested a lot in this. okay. and, and it was a craven choice. i mean,

the ukraine has nothing to do with european security, certainly not american security. they have chosen to do this nikolai and that. but so let me say 1st, 1st of all, that every war that america america seeks to fight and sales to it's public is an existential war. as gattis, dad was a war also for all the same values. and i don't think, although we're trying very hard, we haven't quite reached the level of commitment the resources that we, we spent and they've got us down over more than 20 years. so these things these, these. busy bouts of uh, of imperialism, which is a recurring thing in american foreign policy. continue and, and will recur. but, uh, at the end of the tunnel,

i see the promise of realism. realism being simply a recognition of the facts on the ground and columbia to nickel. i find you never know if i get interrupted the thing victorian. do you think victoria knew in things that way or i think victoria newland is not a permanent component of the foreign policy establishment. everyone's time is off at some point. and this particular bout with imperial expansion will have a lot of, i think, a long i don't, i hope lasting a recuperation. there will be sort of the hang over effect from this. i hope will be more dramatic then it has been for it again. well, nickel, i'm going to talk about that in the 2nd half of the program gentlemen,

we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the upcoming nato summit stage with r t the the in the russian states. never as i've started as i'm sort of the most sense community best not getting hold of all sun set up the in the system

must be the one else holes. question about this, even though we will then in the european union, the kremlin mission, the state on the russians cruising and split the ortiz full neck, even our video agency, roughly all the band on youtube tv services. for what question did you say a request for check the the

boss can do, i just need to see what we've key at the washington state. the rules of guys has to phone up, send 2 professional city and to see for the list of all of which would they use the levels and distribute to the welcome back across. ok, we're all things are considered on peter roosevelt's remind you were discussing the upcoming nato summit. the okay, let's go back to our guest in a, in one in a day in k d. i'm sure you came across the article by john mearsheimer um, titled the darkness ahead where the ukraine wore is heading. and it's

a fascinating piece of writing and, and, and, and it's a big picture which everybody really wants to understand. and he get his conclusions when i a widely respect his work. but then he, there's one element here that i think could be we could have almost like an endless discussion about and is conclusion that this could end up in some kind of frozen conflict, which i find that could really kind of fascinating. people mentioned the, the co, uh, cream poet peninsula as an example i, it doesn't work for me because all of the major powers bought into a frozen complex roughly is not going to do that. your thoughts go ahead in london? yeah, i think uh for sure that this is the only so that's a need. so has all of the company was be considered a strategic to feed for nato. nato has a really big ego. i mean, when it comes to russia, oh, they have a superior already complex here. can they compromise it? this is something that nichol i was trying to bring up. keep going in london. well,

the big, big, big, big cat in a sense, and they will try and sell it because of victory. i mean, we haven't had much about syria, which was an example of, of frozen conflict. but the us is still occupying parts of syria and it's imposing a terrible sanctions on it. so i would tend to agree with the, the point of view, let's um, russia will not find a frozen conflict. the acceptable that in goals and elements of, of the agreements and russia and has lived through b to experience. so one broken promise, author and all the, you know, going back to the problem so not, not one mortgage east was for late. so up to the recent uh, mexico. busy the, the, um, uh, frustrating to the agreements uh we visit, so let's be a government last year. so that fortunately,

i don't see it as being the goal shades of the set. my, i don't see certain members of date. so i even want to not be side is fine with that, you know, unfortunately the present leadership in, in, in poland and apparently english. so the roman was the mob skis portion. that's that they just come from and should not to hate russia more than they love products. and so i think russia is going to talk 3 times as see, that's terms on the go straight to with some sort of remnants of, of are you trading in a really well robin's in the box also? is the evidence. i mean, they would talk even mentioned the minutes cuz process which was a fraud on the western side, the major players have admitted it. so. okay, so i mean, if we're going to talk about some kind of frozen conflict, i mean, that's nonsensical because then they'll just take that time to build up capacity and start the war over again. i mean, i don't, i didn't understand the logic. i wish i could talk to mirror so i'm really like,

don't understand that part of it space is go ahead and, and yeah, i mean, and which means it was, they didn't even try there. there wasn't ever really any real desire to implement that. the ridiculous thing is, if you look back at it, how willing russia it has actually been to make a deal at all this had they have made the deal that that order is johnson kill diabetes brochure was actually willing to give up. wait a lot in that deal of what they have that we did. and so as the war goes on, their position is only going to get worse and worse and worse and worse. because obviously the ukrainians can actually dislodge the russian army from where they're at. and so the longer the way the words that a negotiations are going to get nikolai, it's very interesting if we look at what the, what was negotiated in this stem bull. it's fascinating. zalinski was asked to give

up what he didn't have. i mean, it's remarkable. he didn't have the don bass, it didn't have the crime in. he was asked to give up what he didn't have, and now we're looking at, we are the gloss as well. the bottom line for me is that the outcome of the negotiation will be set by the st. you with the military situation on the ground. and right now everyone is still jockeying for position as this has been going on for a long time. you're beginning to read things about how in, in american newspapers, how zalinski is, is recognizing that he may not be able to achieve victory. and

all these accounts, these narratives are setting up the various constituencies in the west to make concessions, whether they want to or not. because once the counter offensive, assuming it, it runs its course and is ultimately unsuccessful. at that point, all the cards are in russia's hands and the decision will have to be taken on rush aside to advance or just stop. and at that point it becomes an imperative for the west. you negotiate this go back to our guest and one to do by that because of the way i look at it is here is that we and it's already been mentioned. um, our program here is, has been a lot, but a lot of lies and deceit here. the russians, i think, well, unilaterally decide when it's over your thoughts. well that's, that's uh my mind is thinking that as well, i think, um, they have no problem there. so to speak,

to the go shake with and they are surrounded by um, trying to intransigence. it seems to me that they have to go out to um, reclaim um, uh, whatever is left of the, the clear, the independent down best regions. they might go as far as or desa, and uh, they will have to then uh, be confronted if i need to then decides to uh, send in the police troops officially, which would be a dis oscar for everybody. but um, i don't see uh this, um, as i see, does it say any point, you know, you know, going back to a previous point that, that, that, that was made. but at some point, this is one of these last that too much for the west. the amount of money being called in to ukraine, the expense of the defeat will no longer be able to be to be caught up and bodies when courageous people in politics and academia monitor population will need to

come forward and really get rid of. it's not just about be to renew it and it's about people who shared the same ideology as a really need to be a focus on in the public schools in the united states. and they really need to be gotten rid of. yeah, i, i've been, i the people that, um i dance guy was i talking about. they don't exist. okay. they've been marginalized, they've been cancelled, and they're all posing puppets. okay. i wish we could wish that was a track, but i don't see it because so much hubris is on the line right now. again, this is, you know, they, they did this to themselves. they ratio themselves into this. go ahead in portland . yeah, i mean, and if you look at the history of the people that are involved here it's, it's, it's hard because you will get to bite. and i mean, he has had a long career and american politics at this point. and at this point, he has been pro war every time he's been pro war with every what he was pro

vietnam. he was pro and you can swap you, i rack in afghanistan were as much as creation is anybody else is i still remember him sitting at the table next to george w bush saying that saddam had weapons of mass destruction. 45 minutes away from being launched. and so how do you negotiate with this man? how do i need to go say any but how do you negotiate with this mentality of this world view, this ideology? that's the problem. you, nikolai, we're rapidly running out of time, but you always have a word of optimism in, you've already kind of touched upon it. i mean, you talked about realism here. i wish we could have realism here, because you know what, europe and russia are neighbors and they're going to be neighbors for a very long time to come. go ahead nicholas. and there will, there is an establishment. there is a deep state, but there is also,

there are also alternatives to them. they keep springing up and goes, will not go away either. i'm not, i don't know when or if they will try them. but certainly their voices are becoming more and more heard. a bye bye all i think, and that's a that is a reason for optimism in the long run. oh, okay, well, i mean, what is the long run here? because, i mean, can you do see, what do you see the west accepting russian security interest. i mean, that's what this is all about. i mean, the russians, it's all black and white. it was on december 17, the, you know, the months before the complex, i mean, everybody knows what russia wants, can they, can they accepted, denying it all the way they will effectively accepted. okay. that, okay, let's go to one. did you buy that? do you think that they get, i mean this is eating so much crow. okay, cuz this is not afghanistan, it's not a rock, it's not libya, it's different. go ahead in london. i think the bill bill bill trying to sell its

uh as a victory whatever happens um, but uh i kind of lets see russia bought the budget and the deal. collins, they are like streamline tries agenda along with the american exceptionally since the military industry still pop tried for made something with china, another dangerous adventure, but they will try and divert attention from your brain ultimate. okay, so what looks to be a certain degree. okay. ever we have one, we have one minute left. so this i, i have the solution for the neil columns and the victoria new ones of the worm. how to get out of this. and it goes something like, it's, well, at least the russians didn't make i to paris. we won. that's what they're going to do. go ahead and portland. yeah, i mean, i'm sure that they'll come up with some sort of a scenario that the americans are very good at that they still like to say that they want in vietnam to you know, we killed so many more of them. that means we won the war, but, you know, they'll,

they'll just come up with something. i'm sure either that or they'll just started another war similar else. that's what they usually do. well, it, it's very interesting because these are leads that you are easily entertainment into intangible to in the west. they seem to be more apt to creating problems and solving any problems over the last 50 years or so gentlemen. that's all the time we have a one to think, my guess in portland kingsland and in london. and of course i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at our to see you next time. remember, across the

the body of 3 people use of, for instance, coming up with is what the somebody loves to have to choose between you. if you want to get to the store, this goes up there. the word meant that i play anything that i beat was awfully cool. my lot to shift new things to get suitable for something that you all are invited. not mature less of a piece of paper for your set on the a new product is one of the most flexible concepts and international relations that

you can imagine, which is why it's so useful. but why it is so inherently different to the difficult to grasp. so that the chances we have is the country subpoenaed with a meaning that is useful to them and hopefully to, to all this because i did, i did edit core, it means i'm not taking decide of either of completely the i'm a film director, i've written many scripts during my career, but i got really curious, couldn't neural networks collaborate with a human to make a documentary film bring your set up from what you want me to reach out to about this. the volume of cher comergence, this, your margin shows was more list, you know, there's a lot of no, but on board here with this course, the internet, most of oversight,

do you feel are used to finance through multiplan tables? look a lot. finally, probably for you really been for, is of literature sort of by the way we haven't introduced ourselves. i have the strangest feeling we've met somewhere before the, [000:00:00;00] the explosion in moscow at a drones intercepted over the capitol by a defenses. rushed up routes and attempted ukrainian terror attacks the only result of ukrainian counter offensive is tens of thousands of ukrainian soldiers killed and hundreds of pieces of expensive western equipments destroyed.