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[000:00:00;00] the hello and welcome to cross ok. we're all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle, nato. it's a peculiar organization. it claims to be defensive military lines, but at the same time, claims it must constantly expand. add to this the alliance is quite to project stability. in reality, it projects instability and in security and made russia, its primary enemy, the

processing, the upcoming nato summit. i'm joined by my guess, nichol. i petro in kingston. he is a professor of political science at the university of rhode island in portland, we haven't been ripped. he is a freelance journalist and in london we crossing the income mackenzie. he is a visiting lecturer at the law school of the university of westminster. are a gentleman crossed off girls in effect, that means you can jump any time you want. and i always appreciate nichol. i let me go to you. first of, you know, there's been a lot of, uh, there was a lot of talk about the ukraine. so got counter offensive. and now there's a whole lot of talk about the upcoming summit and bill this of the nato summit, of course. and, but it's quite peculiar and you have them to use that word. there seems to be a lot of double talk and x explaining what's going to happen there when nothing really much is going to happen. they're, they're going to throw a few bones to uh, to the ukrainians and other than that. and there's no membership in the cards. maybe no membership ever in the future. what are your thoughts as somebody to is

approaching right. i think the game is lowering expectations for ukraine. i think a senior polish official and just said not to expect too much. but on the other hand, sometimes it turns out the united states to manage is through the whole coersion and other on so on. pressure is to pull a rabbit out of the hat at the last minute. this has happened before when it's been able to sell its own objectives in a way that seems appealing to others and then uh, hide from them of their, their long term implications. so i'm, i'm still very wary about what this upcoming nato summit might lead to. well, yeah. and then can let me go to you in london. i think nikolai, as usual, is spot on here and i'm, but what's interesting is that they wrap it,

they did because they could be pulled out of a hat. wouldn't be really about ukraine. it would be about russia, and this is what this is all about. go ahead and wanted yes, that's absolutely correct. so then i agree with the last the comment that so they, they, they, they, ukraine, coffee expect more than the, the usual they will just simply be giving them a more promise of loans and have your nation while in the meeting. so i'm the ukrainian societies being the, you know, it's being disrupted and it's, it's, it's disruptive. it's a disruptive, a saying, as i think based no question of the ukraine become being a member, because they simply do, don't fulfill any of the criteria for the soul map. so as you said, these are the, is about so old about russia,

even at the expense. so the absolutes obliteration of the craig and as they should states, and the, the, the, you know, the actual degradation of, um, uh, european society and, and, and europe and security too, because that's not being addressed here. and we've actually create more in security because you will have a revisionist, so ukraine, i haven't, i mean, there's not a whole lot of logic involved in this here. those that want to push to give exceptions to ukraine to get into the alliance. well then there is a pay in your opinion more, i mean, who in their right mind wants that go ahead and portland i think that everybody kind of has to play a game where they all want to pretend that they wanted just for, for our purposes. but no, i don't think anyone actually particularly wants to start a war in europe. i mean if they wanted to do that, they've had ample opportunity and they haven't done it. so i could see. ready would

maybe even sending in some volunteers or something like that, but i don't think it's going to be any ukraine's definitely not going to join nato . no bid. and they've made that quite clear. okay, well let's go back to nikolai and in kingston. and then what is the long term implications here? because, you know, it is a nato consent talk all it wants about the future membership of ukraine. but that's the red line for russia. and that's why we have this conflict. and so, you know, it's almost kind of an echo chamber and it may tell land, okay, because the no matter what comes out to build this, the russians have already made their position clear. and they're not going to budge from at least there's no evidence of it go ahead. nikolai, the hope lies not in the current leadership, political leadership in nato countries, but in their successors. there are interesting movements of support, particularly in germany,

with the rise of alternative parties to prominence that are very much skeptical of nato expansion. and the phrase is already been the use of forever wars that aren't going to be a burden specifically to german tax payers. and i think as germany goes, way if, if the conservative right wing in germany does come to power and sticks to its skeptical agenda of on, on german foreign policy and 6 to reverse that. then i think we will show more courage along the same lines displayed in france and italy, which is basically their right wing parties have, have caved to the nato agenda. correct? yeah, well you, i'm sorry, i'm going to have to throw your own words back at you. i mean, you as

a lot of coercive power. i don't think it will allow that to happen. i think maybe i think with nato land has to worry about is colored revolutions instigated by washington. if they don't stay in line, me guys go back to our guest in, in london it's, it's very interesting the term forever war has already been brought up here. and that is, i think, really what's at play here. the mountain states doesn't want ukraine in nato, and of course it doesn't, because then it would take on obligations. but the, the status quote works for washington, just fine. they have no legal obligation, so security obligation, so to protect ukraine. but a good it'll, it'll look like russia on the behalf of an update to, i mean, it's a perfect scenario for washington. go ahead in london. yes, it's a, it's a terrible situation and i sealed it. so obviously, rusher is holding fast to weeks. it's always is and they can only get more line since the previous piece over to years have been um,

throwing out the window uh best of luck to me and puts in obviously um show the records of the signed agreements. and um, so if russia wakes its out and i think the ukraine is on, it's the dog which is being systematically and try to be destroyed. and america is just going to find a way of abandoning you. great. it's done that before to the south, vietnamese. the stomach to the codes of the guns, and that is also the unfortunate so afraid that the remains for, for ukraine. yeah. but as i, i agree with our previous guess of the logic here. but this complex has been turned into an ex essential conflict. okay. the u. s. last in afghanistan. last and the rack last of in libya, it'd be good and it had no real collateral damage. this is a very different thing. this is to do or, you know, i mean stilton berg. i've given it, extending his term here. is it said recently in the last week or so,

but this is all about china now. okay. i mean, this is ex, essential, it's not just a proxy war halfway around the world in, in developing country. go ahead and portland, well land in this case, i mean they've had visited planning for so long. you know, the, the provocation is against ukraine. go back all the way to the 1940s. it was when they, i believe it was the british you 1st made contact with the o u n. in 1944, and they've supported the members sense. so i think this one's kind of a, a bigger deal for them was 88 of waste, like libya and syria. you can just kind of, you know, throw some things out there. and if it doesn't work out, you just leave put ukraine. they've been so invested for so long, but i think it's hard for them to pull out if there's weight. well,

i agree here nikolai. i mean, it's all about the rules based order. it's about a european values. it's about barrels garden, i mean, they've invested a lot in this. okay. and, and it was a craven choice. i mean, the ukraine has nothing to do with european security, certainly that american security, they have chosen to do this nikolai and that. but so let me say, 1st, 1st of all, that every war that america america seeks to fight and sales to its public is an existential war. as gattis, dad was a war also for all the same values. and i don't think, although we're trying very hard, we haven't quite reached the level of commitment, the resources that we, we spent, and they've got us down over more than 20 years. so these things, these, these uh bouts of uh, of imperialism which is

a recurring thing. in american foreign policy, continue and, and we'll recur, but uh, at the end of the tunnel, i see the promise of realism. realism being simply a recognition of the facts on the ground. and when they can make a laugh, i get a rental. if i get interrupted the thing victorian, do you think victoria knew in things that way or i think victoria newland is not a permanent component of the foreign policy establishment. everyone's time is off at some point. and this particular bout with imperial expansion will have a lot of, i think, a long i don't, i hope lasting. i called

a recuperation there will be sort of the hang over effect from this. i hope will be more dramatic than it has been for it again. well, nickel, i'm going to talk about that in the 2nd half of the program gentlemen, we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the upcoming nato summit stage with r t, the the, the body of 3 people. so, for instance, coming your what's the,

somebody loving to have to choose between you and the youngest. you might be offered to get to the store this goes to up to leave it up there. the word made that up. we have the apple beat was awfully cool my lot. so shift for about a few things to get suitable for something that you all a lot of the people at the office of bringing

the welcome act across. ok, we're all things are considered. i'm peter in the bell to remind you we're discussing the upcoming nato summit. the okay, let's go back to our guest in a, in one in a day in k, the, i'm sure you came across the article by john mearsheimer um titles in the darkness ahead where the ukraine war is heading. and it's a fascinating piece of writing and, and, and, and it's a big picture which everybody really wants to understand. and he get his conclusions when i widely respect his work. but then he, there's one element here that i think could, we could have almost like an endless discussion about and is conclusion that this could end up in some kind of frozen conflict,

which i find that could really kind of fascinating. people mentioned the, the co, a korean poet peninsula. as an example i, it doesn't work for me because all of the major powers bought into, or frozen complet rush is not going to do that. your thoughts go ahead and london, and yeah, i think uh for sure that this is the only, so that's a name. so has all of the company was, when does be considered a strategic to feed for nato? nato has a really big ego. i mean, when it comes to russia, oh, they have a superior already complex here. can they compromise it? this is something that nichol i was trying to bring up. keep going in london. well, the big, big, big, big cat in a sense, and they will try and sell it because of victory. i mean, we haven't had much about syria, which was an example of, of frozen conflict. but the us is still occupying a pods of syria and it's imposing a terrible sanctions on it. so i would tend to agree with the, the point of view,

let's russia will not find a frozen conflict, the acceptable that in goals and elements of the agreements and russia and has lived through b to experience. so one broken promise to another, you know, going back to the problem so not one mortgage east which relates so up to the recent a means to call. busy the it'd be, uh, a frustrating to the agreements uh we visit. so let's be a government last year. so um, but fortunately, i don't see it as being the and the goal shades at the set. i don't see certain members of the date. so even want to not be side is fine with that, you know, unfortunately the, the present leadership in, in, in poland and apparently english sofa roman was the want skis, a portion that's, that they just come from and should not to hate russia more than they love products,

and so i think russia is going to talk 3 times as see that's terms on the go straight to with some sort of remnants of all of our ukranian. uh, really well robins and fox authors. yeah. evan. i mean, it's already been and the minutes cuz uh process which was a fraud on the western side. the major players have admitted it. so. okay. um, so i mean, if we're gonna talk about some kind of pros and conflict, i mean that's nonsensical because then they'll just take that time to build up capacity and sort of more over again. i mean, i don't, i didn't understand the logic. i wish i could talk to me or so i'm really like, don't understand that part of it space is go ahead and, and yeah, i mean, and which means it was, they didn't even try there. there wasn't ever really any real desire to implement that. the ridiculous thing is, if you look back at it, how willing russia has actually been to make

a deal on all this had they have made the deal that the order is johnson kill diabetes brochure was actually willing to give up way to watts in that deal. of what they have that we did. and so as the war goes on, their position is only going to get worse and worse and worse and worse. because obviously the ukrainians can actually dislodge the russian army from where they're at. and so the longer they weighed the worst cities negotiations are going to get nikolai, it's very interesting if we look at what the, what was negotiated in this them, bull, it's fascinating. zalinski was asked to give up what he didn't have. i mean, it's remarkable. he didn't have the don bass, he didn't have the crimea. he was asked to give up what he didn't have. and now we're looking at. we are nikolai. well, the bottom line for me is that the outcome of the negotiations will

be set by the suit. you with the military situation on the ground. and right now everyone is still jockeying for position and this has been going on for a long time. you're beginning to read things about how in, in american newspapers, how zalinski is, is recognizing that he may not be able to achieve victory. and all these accounts, these narratives are setting up the various constituencies in the west to make concessions, whether they want to or not. because once the counter offensive, assuming it, it runs its course and is ultimately unsuccessful. at that point, all the cards are in rushes hands and the decision will have to be taken on rush

aside to advance or just stop. and at that point it becomes an imperative for the west. negotiate this, go back to our guest and one to do by that because of the way i look at it is here is that we and it's already been mentioned. um our program here is, has been a lot, but a lot of lies and deceit here. the russians, i think, for unilaterally decide when it's over your thoughts. well that's, that's uh my mind is thinking that as well, i think um they have no partner, so to speak, to the go shake with. and they are surrounded by um, trying to intransigence. it seems to me that um they have to go out to um, reclaim um, uh, whatever is left of the declared independence, donald bess regions they might go as far as or desa and they will have to then uh become frontier they've made. so then decides to, uh,

send in the police troops officially, which would be a dis oscar for everybody, but so i don't see uh this, um, as i said, as a turning point, you know, you know, going back to a previous point that, that, that, that was made but at some point this is one of these last that too much for the west. the amount of money being put. busy into ukraine, the expense of the defeat will no longer be able to be uh, to be covered up and bodies when courageous people in politics and academia monitor population will need to come forward. and really get rid of. it's not just about victoria new and it's about people who shared the same ideology as a really need to be a focus on in the public schools in the united states. and they really needs to be gotten rid of. yeah i, i've been the people that i dance guy was i talking about. they don't exist. okay. they've been marginalized, they've been cancelled,

and they're all potent puppets. okay. i wish we could wish that was a track, but i don't see it because so much hubris is on the line right now. again, this is, you know, they, they did this to themselves. they ratio themselves into this. go ahead and portland . yeah, i mean, and if you look at the history of the people that are involved here it's, it's, it's hard because you will get to bite. and i mean, he has had a long career in american politics at this point. and at this point, he has been pro war every time he's been pro war with every what he was pro vietnam. he was pro and you this lobby, a i rack in afghanistan were as much as creation is anybody else? as i still remember him, sitting at the table next to george w bush saying that saddam had weapons of mass destruction. 45 minutes away from being launched. and so how do you negotiate with this man?

how do i need to go say any but how do you negotiate with this mentality? this world view, this ideology, that's the problem. you, nikolai, we're rapidly running out of time. but you always have a word of optimism in, you've already kind of touched upon it. i mean, you talked about realism here. i wish we could have realism here, because you know what, europe and russia are neighbors and they're going to be neighbors for a very long time to come. go ahead nicholas. and there will, there is an establishment. there is a deep state, but there is also, there are also alternatives to them. they keep springing up and those will not go away either. i'm not, i don't know when or if they will try them. but certainly their voices are becoming more and more heard. a bye bye all i think, and that's a that is a reason for optimism in the long run. oh, okay, well, i mean, what is the long run here? because, i mean, can you do say,

what do you see the west accepting russian security interest. i mean, that's what this is all about. i mean, the russians, it's all black and white. it was on december 17th. the, you know, the months before the complex, i mean, everybody knows what russia wants, can they, can they accepted, denying it all the way they will effectively accept it. okay. okay, let's go to one. did you buy that? do you think that they could, i mean this is eating so much crow. okay, cuz this is not as bad as that. it's not a rock, it's not libya, it's different. go ahead in london. i think they'll, they'll, they'll, they'll try and sell it as a fig. tree whatever happens um, but uh i kind of see rush, i bought a bunch in the veal columns like streamline, tries to jazz along with the american exception. the list of the military industries still pop, tried for made something with china, another dangerous adventure,

but they will try and divert attention from your brain ultimate to be a certain degree. okay, ever. we have one. we have one minute left. so this i, i have the solution for the neo cons and the victoria new ones of the worm. how to get out of this. and it goes something like, it's, well, it least the russians didn't, may go to paris. we won. that's what they're going to do. go ahead and portland yeah, i mean i'm sure that they'll come up with some sort of a scenario that the americans are very good at that they still like to say that they want in vietnam to you know, we killed so many more of them. that means we won the war, but, you know, they'll, they'll just come up with something. i'm sure either that or they'll just started another war. similar else is what they usually do. well, it, it's very interesting because these are leads that you are easily entertainment into intangible to in the west. they seem to be more apt at creating problems than solving any problems over the last 50 years or so gentlemen. that's all the time we

have a want to thank my guest in portland kingsley and in london. and of course, i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at our to see you next time. remember, across cycles, the russian states never saw one of the most sense community best. nothing was all sense and up the speed. what else? suppose question about this, even though we will fan in the european union, the kremlin machine, the state on the russians cruising and split the ortiz full neck, even our video agency,

roughly all the band on youtube tv services. for the question, did you say they requested the question of the nuclear the most schools do if you look for in the initial do 1 o'clock significantly percent liability almost getting used to put value when you do oil change, but yeah,

it's just the was done the newest frame on the belief systems to good ludy. what i see these the bus is the little gear motivation. says do some uh to the, to the most of the i'm a film director. i've written many scripts during my career, but i got really curious, cutting neural networks collaborate with a human to make a documentary film. springer set up for much. i'm not sure about this. if i ever share comergence this, your motion was more let's do this. well. no, but i would feel with as with the internet and i still can use like, do you feel i used to be mostly positive about the gloss finally, probably for you really been for is it literally sort of by the way we haven't introduced ourselves? i have the strangest feeling we've met somewhere before

the the hey, i'm rick sanchez. i've been doing news for 30 years and 2 languages all over the world in here in the united states interviewed port president's work and for the u . s. has major television networks and been fired by a bunch. i believe there should be honest and direct and impactful. and this is direct impact. the so brazilian president luis ignacio little of the silva. suddenly all over the news, his anger made headlines when he criticized ukrainian president, but