the hello welcome to worlds apart. the study of war is one of the oldest academic disciplines going back for millennia. but it encountered a new read the new specimen in the ukranian conflict. pursuit for years in its proxy form in 2022, it's built into the open, affecting countries, half of will the way what's going to teach us about the nature of more than the warfare. we'll discuss that. i'm now enjoyed by conflict research or create the race glass. prefers and russell is great to talk to. thank you very much for your time. you're welcome. now i know you've started conflicts for much of your academic career. you in reach the field by introducing your own modal conflict escalation and hang on to a few years ago. for most people. this was a very academic, very theoretical, very remote discipline calculates, were far away. it wasn't something that had a direct impact on people's lives,

at least on the lives of people in the western hemisphere. and i think that's changing now because regardless of where you are in the world, you will feel its various expanded, but he will feel the consequences of the ukrainian conflict. i wonder if that has changed your own approach to this object in any way. to some extent, because the nature of the model has changed. and i think if they, it was a cyber bowl for instance, and new technology and, and all that. so we are not reading this as a traditional understanding of 4, which is more, less regulated by international law to new kinds of i would say of

fighting of competition, etc. ipad and make it more difficult also to control that isn't the nature of the conflicts that has changed or do you think it's perhaps the cumulative effect of the old dynamics that has reached the boiling point one if can no longer be contained this is not so near because you always have different stages of escalation and that is a moment it's exploding or boiling. but what we can see clearly is that if i'm referring to my model of 9 steps of escalation, even if you're at one stage of escalation, like at the moment stage 8, which is a very, very, very, very deep escalation. you'll see them that on the same stage on the same step, you have various red lines. in addition,

also the general character of being, it's a step 8, does not change, but you pass several red lines like that's what criminals. a stop to the happened next. that occasionally or but on purpose as a part of this thread, the feet, the difference so that various grades and steps. oh so it is still on the same basic step of escalation. this becomes more clear because of the model i'm kind of um and then and so i've avoided cetera. i hope we can come back to your model of conference exploration a little bit later. but before we do that, i want to ask you this. i, i know that you see the war in ukraine is not just the single war, but the raw, the intertwining of 3 different conflicts. and you political conflict between the

west and the east and interest states war between the russian ukraine and i'm in try. ukraine struggled between pro western and pro russian ukrainians. which one did you think of this point is the most intact in towns and perhaps the most irreconcilable, the most in terms is the rational crane in. so because that's on the battlefields. oh, those are the dynamics of the king of political conflict is actually because they're getting visible in the, in the rational cranium conflict. and also the in trust occurring in war and is also closely connected to the russian and or cranium once it but for they basically talk about that later. but for the solutions, you have to concentrate them to do because the 3 different types in

a different way. uh, you know, uh, exactly 20 years ago i was a student that one american university. i actually took a course on the theories off my interest is more fair and i still have this uh, sentimental artifact of the times when uh, you know, it was just to see a reticle discipline for me, but i remember them back down in, in, in my class, as we discussed, the ukrainian case on the tension between russia and nato, was there at the tension between different parts of ukraine. pro western and professional was there, but what was lacking of that time was this kinetic interest a conflict. what allowed it to uh, take place, what pushed on that because for quite some time it seems that 2 other types of conflict uh, work contain it's as difficult to talk about, closes in analogy to natural science. causality because

it is, it is a situation the dynamic is one of, of an inter relationship and of, of circular causality. another of a single linear one, causality. so that is it moment you have the combinations of as well. the intra ukrainian difficulty is a kind of a civil war because of the nationalist, extreme nationalist government, which after the made on protest 3rd got to power and strive to suppress the suppressed the protest movements and, and the hope less often around skin and to this point well, let's, let's be, uh, concrete here, and i'll just suppressing the products that has, i mean they, they were present violent in terms of suffering, the linguistic rights and the political rights as well. it's not what it wasn't

just about the product testing. no, no, no, no. in the beginning of the session which was made by the new government which came to bubble off, the dental coverage had to leave the country. and was that the, the for a bit to use the russian language as they all fish saw in communicating this administration . they were creating an administration. and 1st, the rep protest movements from real guns goodness, odessa was, and yet forbid the concentra and, and the really, really suppressed by even military actions, organized and commanded by kids, by the government for the new government. and they became more, more, more like an ex david is because those are protested. turns home more

mode to become separatists. so it does say, well, that is the future, but then the crane in state. so we fail to be protected in a better way. if we come get closer to the union of the, of the independent states, you have on both sides of the will create inside your head as well, ordinary military forces and also relates you a private malaysia on the co creating inside as well. and you have, you had militia support by, by russia and you had to protest us. and so it became most violent and a real real war. now, you know, that russia was the one of course, to illinois, this special uh, military operation. uh, which is used in the west as

a sort of pre text to raise all the underlying context and put the blame squarely on uh on las glen. i'm not fishing for your excuse or for the crumb infections. i think of the criminal, we'll have to face responsibility for that regardless of our discussion. but i strongly believe that the west as well, contributed in a great deal to, to these dynamic. now, how do you as a research or understand weston and need a strategy visa view russia prior to february 2022. and since then i started only to look at the intra create inside. i showed those look because i'm talking about 3 was we're trying to mingled but at the same time, you'll have, you'll have the tensions between a lot of the west, but the trends atlantics system,

which has not be the convent of the old west as renewed from the from the cold war, but it was a new system, the trans atlantic. and on the other hand, not the east, with sort of the union, what, what russia, but china, the, your asian system, actually, that is a difference. so with different dynamics of because of the hedge model and the dynamics up on the one hand do you is a losing mode more influence and the rule not being any longer the police officer ruled. and on the other hand, the uprising china in and kind of the lions this with pressure. but the china was for the united states and nato much more actually a challenge them the russian. because after the dissolution of this,

of the indian, there was no a no similar system like the native because the bus sho, 3 t community uh, most dissolved, if i wasn't such a big challenge for the united states, what was the purpose of, you know, acting very provocatively, these india, russia with major expansion because i think you would agree that most because thinking of many times that's what is what it is thinking in ukraine is actually the state of war. it's the united states that wanted to change it as one to neutral ukraine. ukraine, that's good. the do, whatever one's political, you would militarily, it should not be used as a bulwark against russia, which i mean for most the searchers is the existing mclean. how do you understand the west and push, even if you say russia wasn't such a big press, 4 for the west. i have to refer again to the dissolution of the so junior in the restroom,

but pretty system disappear last to so and all the all. and then they to getting more and more close the, the does the russian border because of the new members and, and the publication for a safe by russia, by the government of russia was that often the poland, a check republic and ontario became members of the later and, and the government, the pressure of, of consultant and did not actually ok to this because they sold that they're secure the interest to have been respected. but later, when the bell tick republics became members they, they, me the comments or the signals of disagreement of the russian government, which ignored really. and then we have that even the close to the russian border

and this side of this and arresting. and how do you call it? uh for, for me. so i was yeah, this the launch size. yes. and the, but i mean, that was still a little bit further away. but the ukraine, i mean, every, every research or in the united states knows what ukraine means. for us to historically and send to mentally, but even me, purely military terms. it's too close to moscow. what was the i, i'm genuinely struggling to understand the strategy behind it because uh, certainly they could not have expected mosca would, would ignore the threat like that because i mean, even in old military manuals they, they have to react. i'm not sure with the but i really got what your question is because i stopped at answering by looking at, let's say, the chair,

political context and. and then with the maneuvers which were organized by later in the baltic republic and in the black sea, at the same time when the president of the of duel crated in order to actually to prepare to regain control on the cri may, uh, and to, and on the plus spell at the same time you had the maneuvers and at the same time, you'll have maneuvers on this, on the russian side, close to the $24.00 crane and both of them. and these were actually seen by both sides as pro locations and, and let's do to escalate with scenarios of threats on both

sides. and the banjo was, is that to be credible if you have threats to threaten that you have to stop to, to implement the little bit so that people say yes, that's a serious threat. and that's a kind of a phony, well go forward without any threats. we have to take a very short break right now, but we will be back peacefully in couple of minutes stationed the a hi, i'm rick sanchez and i'm here to plan with you whatever you do, you do not watch my new show. seriously. why watch something that's so different little opinions that he won't get anywhere else. welcome,

but please do have the state department to see i a weapons bankers, multi 1000000000 dollar corporations. choose your fax for you. go ahead, change and whatever you do. don't my show stay main street because i'm probably going to make you, i'm comfortable. my show is called stretching time, but again, it's not. we don't want to watch it because it might just change the wayne state the welcome back to world supports with conflicts to research or requests thoughts for his english one before the break. we were talking about the various publications or um, escrow a tour, a dynamic that proceeded to ukrainian conflict. and i know that for the last couple of years and talking daycare, it's many um, western strategies,

but particularly american strategies have been writing about a proxy war as a substitute for the actual kinetic conflict. then i think when it comes to russia, you know, one of the reasons why russia had to directly intervene in ukraine is to do away with the something you, it's your while. the west saying that we are all peaceful at the same time pursuing very aggressive policy. so it'd be a rush or sneeze. the post is that the russia perceived as aggressive. do you think this traveling just in the west actually allowed for a possibility of russia responding genetically and you're in, do you think that is, even though theoretically the idea there, that's a proxy measures do not exclude the possibility of re a war, but in fact they may make it even more likely did an amex, which you have been describing tests. now, i actually used to the best size of it,

say again the trans atlantic and the your asian side as the, legitimize to, to increase the res, etc. and to prepare for the case that's the other side, would start with an address. and we know that the perception of in such a situation is always. so that's the one side. so that is the, the other side started and the other side is scale to off having cost any, any troubles and stopped it while i get tickets. so this, this is actually what's happened since i've, let's say that 2000 when, when some of a of the to read is bridge where

a step which existed to do control and to reduce alms. and especially at nukes, i'm a ment has been broken from the western side, really western side of the united states, with the tech in libya, and 2001 or iraq as a 30, et cetera. and on the other hand of the roof, russian intervention in georgia in 2008 off to the invitation of an aide made to to torture and to create, to become members in 2008 and march bucharest. and then say you have this, this period of actually, of the building up scenarios of threats on both sides. so i heard you say that ukraine is being held hostage and these big power rivalry,

which i think affords the certainly valence off. um, you know, of an innocent victim and being a student of psychology, i know that the victim who would, in the invitational does say, i know the same thing because a victim lies behavior is a can actually be very exploitative. and there's a certain strength to, uh, being a victim. and i want to ask you, um whether you uh, believe that your brain was truly in a sense, you know, a hostage here, or whether it deliberately tried to insert itself in a position when it can sell itself to the biggest, the bid or um, you know, play on their own, this rivalry. i'm really sure that at the beginning when russian troops entered they will cream. so talking about february last year that the,

that this tech was based on the same, the missed calculation of the russian side as well and missed calculation on the trans atlantic side. the message of this very 1st of the very 1st stage was our moms. a serious to months that's in a to should withdrawal from the ship should get out because it's too close to the rushing area of interest. and oh the oh, so that old korean never should become a member of the ne, to but the russian government decided really to, to invade to that tech. they'll create it in the expectation with the expectation input b, s very short operation, not,

not really of war. but in something like a sanction against full members of, of the empire. then the cost of this a pricing resistance on the crane is side. then the russian military has to change the plans again and again and then discover no, it's not a matter of a couple of hours a days to occupied the cream by buying the capital. the reason of the hope, the expectation boss that no real serious cox could start about an u architecture of security and peace. because the old one was up to late actually for years already. and the, the, the months from the,

especially for on the russian side. because it was not, not long a soviet and empire, but it was a smaller country. and less powerful was because of the oh so this i would say this also more efficient, the more cognizant of the way, if he uses his power, it's still pretty powerful. i mean, like in terms of a military industrial complex, i think it has a yes. me quite a good couple of capacity there. yes, yes. but i mean, and the, the international relationship. because the big it got a balanced, a. p, a nato, and then only restaurant the what, how the site and more, more, the growing at the growing of the native system. it was really could not be north any longer. and therefore, my idea of us that the idea of it over, but it's pretty guys. it was called

a quick break conquering campaign, etc. well then, mean, so okay, we have to admit, yes, the security, i could extra fees that the data is not up to date. we have to do something. and the, the moms which exists it already that the nate, the should withdrawal even from germany and, and shut the knots, try to get a little green also as a member, a member of so nature, which was the invitation of march in 2008. during the broker as conference. so when i said the, the, the message of, of the new plan is used as a hostage in order to know the pressure on rail negotiation and reconsidering the existing security system. uh huh. well uh we both know that

these negotiations uh never happened. um the war it is uh what it is. as you mentioned according to your modal, as level 8, which stands for total insulation. um, what can possibly allow us to move backwards rather than forward to level 9 and the obese associated with that? you know that that's been many tens um off of the government's comforters, etc. in order to start with folks and ceasefire, etc. and they have not been successful. and if i look at, at those attempts, because i could see that most of them was based on, on,

on some wrong assumptions. and most of them were only appealing to russia and or korean. but they ignore the fact that made to washington, really the main purpose of the conflict. also it took place of crating and territory. it is the tension between the trans atlantic and the russian or the, the, your ration system there. and the appeals of various governments. so the red diplomatic initiatives quite a lot of the sales rep from prusio and african delegation of this year in june and july again. and so that's the problem. volstead, the keys and moscow. i said, yes,

they would enter into negotiations, but we have some break conditions and 1st, the other side has to comply with that. so and so in sunset and they were actually preventing that talks could start at all these, these ideas could have been an topic, an issue of negotiation, but not as a prior condition. and so, or, for instance, they, uh, they typed in initiative or they and mexico, the one not really. and addressing the, the washington and the brussels. i mean, native as being the main ext is only appealing to russia and why we choose a, which is a mistake up. so list as well. i'm in the,

you're counting, solve the complex to invalid. the bring one of the top belligerence and sponsors in reference to the last one. we have to leave it there. thank you very much for sharing your insights with us today. groups are welcome. yep. and thank you for watching culture, sir. again on was a part the

most reason is munoz curtis. imagine if you speak russian, keep your voice down while house in about. so we like about that for us for us to have a ser. don't put your human symbolism display the decision space, reach the guide. so you guys don't talk to strangers, the void noisy gatherings and was wondering for sure give me what she rely on and get them in and what are or even your colleagues and perhaps also your friends think you're guilty because your russian let you know the boom so what can i do? i'm the was landscape. it's all a detail, which is the team that does put teaching styles. we did use be reaching out a bunch of blankets for the exception to parties specific social concerning

the the for the party of slovakia, football prime minister, wayne's parliamentary elections had his acceptance speech, confirms the country has more pressing issues than you create the president job. i didn't find that emergency funding bill to keep the american government running while excluding you a for you train. how it, he says under no circumstances can american support for t f, b interrupted. but u. k prime administer about trucks and denies his defense minister explains about sending u. k. troops to ukraine saying it's only a possibility in the long term on the story, the shape of a week as a canadian problem, let us to is in the hot seat for hosting and actually collaborate the current in

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