to the best they said, well we can't, we can't define whether or not the committed war crimes and so they were allowed to continue living in canada. now the question i raised when i saw this standing ovation for your slow puncture, is it's not so much that the speaker needs to resign. certainly justin for doing christ. you're free, leonard, deputy prime minister, should be resigning for the long standing support to nazis. but why did none of them ask what's going to happen to this man and what's going to happen to the other thousands of knots he's living in canada or at least entered into kind of in the fifty's. all about the rocks the saw will be bought at the top of costs for to talk to over until then. well, to pop to enjoy the, [000:00:00;00]

the, the welcome to world a part the study of war is one of the oldest academic disciplines going back for millennia. but it encountered a new read the new specimen in the ukranian conflict. pursuits for years in its proxy form in 2022, it's built into the open, affecting countries, half of will the way what's going to teach us about the nature of more than the warfare. we'll discuss that. i'm now enjoyed by conflict researcher 3 and the roof glass slope for 1st and last. so it's great to talk to you. thank you very much for your time. you're welcome. now i know you started conflicts for much of your academic career. you in reached the field by introducing your own modal of conflict

escalation and hang on to a few years ago. for most people. this was a very academic career, as they are ready to go very remote discipline, conflicts were far away. it wasn't something that had a direct impact on people's lives, at least on the lives of people in the western hemisphere. and i think that's changing now because regardless of where you are in the world, you will feel its various expanded materials filled the consequences off of that ukraine in conflict. i wonder if that has changed your own approach to the subject in any way to some extent because the nature of the model has changed. and i think if they say cyber boy, for instance, and new technology and spend all that. so we are not

dealing with the traditional understanding before which is more or less regulated by international law. so new kinds of i would say of fighting of competition, etc. ipad and make it more difficult also to control that isn't the nature of the conflicts that has changed or do you think it's perhaps the cumulative effect of the old dynamics that has reached the boiling point one if can no longer be contained this is not so near because you always have different stages of escalation and to show a moment it's exploding or boiling. but what we can see clearly is that if i'm referring to my model of 9 steps of escalation, even if you're at one stage of escalation, like at the moment stage 8,

which is a very, very, very, very deep escalation. you see you then that on the same stage on the same steps, you have various red lines. in addition, also the general character of seeing it's a step 8 does not change, but you pass several red lines like that's what criminals up to the happened next. occasionally or but on purpose as a part of this thread that see the difference. so the various grades and steps. oh so it is still on the same basic step of escalation. this becomes more clear because of the model i'm kind of um and then, and so i've avoided cetera. i hope we can come back to your model of conference

escalation a little bit later. but before we do that, i want to ask you this. i, i know that you see the war in ukraine is not just the single war, but the rather the intertwining of 3 different conflicts. and you political conflict between the west and the east and interest states war between russia and ukraine and in try ukraine. struggle between pro western and pro russian ukrainians . which one did you think of this point is the most intent in terms and perhaps the most irreconcilable. the most intense is the rational crane in. so because that's on the battlefields. oh, those are the dynamics of the king of political conflict is actually because they're getting visible in the, in the rational cranium conflict. and also the in trust grained in

war and is also closely connected to the russian. and we're creating and what's it but for they basically talk about that later. but for the solutions, you have to concentrate them to deal with the 3 different types in a different way. uh, you know, uh, exactly 20 years ago i was a student, that's one american university. i actually took a course on the theories. all fox interest is more fair and i still have this uh, sent a mental artifact of the times when uh, you know, it was just to see a radical discipline for me, but i remember them back down in, in my classes we discussed the ukrainian case on the tension between russia and nato was there at the tension between different parts of ukraine. pro western and professional was there, but what was lacking at that time was this kinetic interest a conflict? what allowed it to uh, take place. what pushed over that because for quite some time uh,

it seems that 2 other types of conflict uh, work contain it's is difficult to talk about clauses in analogy to natural science. causality because it is, it is a situation. the dynamic is one of, of an into relationship and of, of circular causality. another of a single linear one, causality. so it is at moment you have the combinations of, as well. the intra ukrainian difficulty is a kind of a civil war. uh, because of the nationalist, extreme nationalist government, which after the maiden process, started got to power and strive to suppress the suppressed the

protest movements and, and the blast off the ground skin and this, well let's, let's be, uh, concrete here. and i'll just suppressing the products that has, i mean they, they were present violent in terms of suffering, the linguistic rights and the political rights as well. it's not what it was, just about the product testing. no, no, no, no, no. and the beginning of the decision which was made by the new government which came to bubble off the dental coverage, had to leave the country. and was that the, the, the for a bit to use the russian language as they all fish will, in communicating best way administration, they were creating an administration and 1st developed protest movements from real guns goodness, odessa was in the predictor of concentra and, and the really really suppressed by even military actions,

organized and commanded by kids, by the government, by the new government. and they became more, more, more like an ex david is because those who protested turns home more mode to become separate this. so it does a, well, that is the future, but then the crane in state. so we fail to be protected in a better way. if we come get closer to the union of the ups, the independent states, you have on both sides of the will create insights. you have as well ordinary military forces and also relates you a private malaysia. they already co crane inside the smell, and you have um, you had militia support by,

by russia and you had to protest. and so it became most violent and a real real war. now. uh, you know, that, uh, russia, uh, was the one of course to illinois the special uh, military operation. uh, which is used in the west as a sort of pre tax to raise all the underlying context and put the blame squarely on uh on las glen. i'm not fishing for your excuse or for the criminal infections. i think of the criminal. we'll have to face responsibility for that regardless of our discussion. but i strongly believe that the west as well, contributed in a great deal to do these dynamic. now, how do you as a research or understand weston and major strategy visa view russia prior to february 2022. and since then, i started only to look at the intra create inside i showed those are look because

i'm talking about 3 was which i intermingled. but at the same time, you'll have, you'll have the tensions between a lot of the west, but the trends atlantics system, which has not be the convent of the old west as renewed from the, from the cold war. but it was a new system to trans atlantic. and on the other hand, not the east with some of the union, what, but russia, but china, the, your, raise, the, and system actually that there's a difference. so with different dynamics of because of the hedge among neil and the dynamics up on the one hand you is a losing mode more influence and the rule not being any longer the police officer ruled. and on the other hand, the uprising china in and kind of the lions this

with russia. but the china was for the united states and nato, much more actually a challenge. them the russian. because after the dissolution of the 70 indian, the boss, no, a, no similar system like the native because the bus show 3 d community uh, bus diesel. if i wasn't such a big challenge for the united states, what was the purpose of, you know, acting very provocatively, these india, russia with major expansion? because i think you would agree that most because thinking of many times that what is what it is thinking in ukraine is actually the status quan, it's the united states that wanted to change it as wanted neutral ukraine, ukraine, that could do whatever one's politically would militarily it should not be used as a bulwark against russia, which i mean for most the searchers is the existing mclean. how do you understand

the west and push? even if you say russia wasn't such a big press, 4 for the west. i have to refer again to the dissolution of the so junior, in the rush, a bunch of pretty to system disappear most to so and all the all. and then they to getting more and more close the, the does the russian border because of the new members and, and the pro vocation for the best perceived by russia by the government of russia was that of, to poland, a check republic. and doug area became members of the nature and, and the government, the pressure of, of consultant and did not actually ok to this because they saw that they're secure the interest to have been respected. but later, when the bell,

dick republics became members they, they, me the commons or the signals of disagreement of the russian government with ignored really. and then we have that even at close to the rest of the border and this side of this and arresting and how do you call it to for, for me. so i was and yeah, missile launch sites. yes. and that, but i mean, that was still a little bit further away, but the ukraine, i mean, every, every research or in the united states knows what ukraine means for us. so historically and center mentally. but even in purely military terms, it's too close to moscow. what was the i, i'm genuinely struggling to understand the strategy behind it, because uh, surely they could not have expected mosca would, would ignore the threat like that because i mean, even in old military manuals they,

they have to react. i'm not sure with the but i really got what your question is because i stopped at answering by looking at, let's say, the chair, political context and. and then with the maneuvers which were organized by later in the baltic republic and in the black sea. at the same time, when the president of the both do crated in order to actually to prepare to regain control on the cri may a and to, and on the plus. so at the same time you had the maneuvers and at the same time, you had maneuvers on this, on the russian side, close to the 24 crane and border. and these were actually

seen by both sides as pro locations to and, and let's to, to escalate risk scenarios of threats on both sides. and the banjo was, is that to be credible if you're threats to threaten that you have to stop to, to implement the little bit so that people say yes, that's a serious threat. and that's kind of a phony. what was the level of without any threats? we have to take a very short break right now, but we will be back peacefully in couple of minutes stationed

the, [000:00:00;00] the welcome back to world reports with conflict research or risk level present russell before the break we were talking about the various publications or um, school a tour, a dynamic that proceed in the ukrainian conflict. and i know that for the last couple of years and talking daycare, it's many west and strategist, the particular american strategies have been writing about a proxy war as a substitute for the actual kinetic conflicts. and i think when it comes to russia, you know,

one of the reasons why russia had to directly interview in ukraine is to do away with the something you, it's your while. the west saying that we owe peaceful at the same time pursuing very aggressive policy. so it'd be a rush, or if he's the post is that the russia perceived as aggressive. do you think this traveling just in the west actually allowed for a possibility of russia responding genetically. and you're in, do you think that is, even though theoretically idea there that a proxy measures do not exclude the possibility of a re a war. but in fact, they may make it even more likely that an image which you have been describing trust. now, i actually am used the best size of it, say again the trans atlantic and the your asian side as the legitimize to,

to increase the res, etc. and to prepare for the case that's the other side would start with an address. and we know that the perception of, in such a situation is always so that's the one side. so that you see the other side started and the other side is scale to off having cost any, any troubles, and started with like activities. so this, this is actually what's happened since i've, let's say that 2000 when, when some will say of the treatise bridge where a step which existed to do control and to reduce ops and especially no comment has been broken from the western side. really western side of

the united states with a tech in libya and 2001 or iraq as a 30, etc. and all the other hand of the roof russian intervention in georgia in 2008 off to the invitation of so they need to, to torture and to create, to become members in 2008 and march bucharest. and then say you have this, this period of extra li, of the building up scenarios of threats on, on both sides. so i heard you say that your claim is being held hostage and these beef power rivalry, which i think affords the certainly valence off. um, you know, of an innocent victim and being a student the psychology, i know that the victim pulled in a invitational does say,

i know the same thing because a victim lies behavior is a can actually be very exploitative. and there's a certain strength to, uh, being a victim. and i want to ask you, um whether you believe that your brain was truly in a sense, you know, a hostage here, or whether it deliberately tried to insert itself in a position when it can sell itself to them because they're bitter. um, you know, play on their own, this rivalry. i'm really sure that at the beginning, when russian troops entered the crane. so talking about february last year that the, that this tech was based on the same miscalculation

hope, the russian side as well and miscalculation on the transatlantic side. the message of this very 1st of the very 1st stage was our moms, a serious to monster. that's the ne to should withdrawal from the ship should get out because it's too close to the rushing area of interest. and oh the oh so that ok, you never should become a member of the ne, to but the russian government decided really to, to invade to that tech. they'll create it in the expectation with expedition b, s very short operation. not, not really of war, but in something like a sanction against full members of,

of the empire. then the cause of the surprising resistance on the crane is side. then the russian military has to change the plans again and again and then discover no, it's not a matter of a couple of hours a days to occupied the cream by occupying the capital. the reason of the hope, the expectation boss that no real serious cox could start about a new architecture of security and peace. because the old one was up to late actually for years already. and the, the, the months from the, especially for on the russian side. because it was not, not long the soviet and empire, but it goes to

a smaller country and less powerful because of the, the say this also more efficient, the more cognizant of the way, if he uses his power, it's still pretty powerful. i'm in like in terms of military industrial complex. i think it has a yes. me quite a good couple capacity there. yes. yes. but i mean, and the, the international relationship. because the big, big got a balanced, a p, a nato, and then only russian on the what, how the site and more and more, the growing at the growing of the native system was really, could not be north and longer. and therefore, my idea of us that the idea of it over, but it's pretty guys what's called a quick break conquering campaign, etc. would then mean so, okay, we have to admit, yes,

that security. i could extra fees that the data is not up to date. we have to do something and the, the moms which exists it already that the nate, the should withdrawal even from germany and, and shut the knots, try to get the little green, all of the as a member member of the nature which was the invitation of march 2008 during the broker as conference. so when i said that the, the message of, of the new plan is used as a hostage in order to now put pressure on rail negotiation and reconsidering the existing security system. mm hm. well uh we both know that these negotiations uh never happened. um the war it is uh what it is. as you mentioned according to your modal, as level 8,

which stands for total insulation. um, what can possibly allow us to move backwards rather than forward to level 9 then the obese associated with it. you know that that's been many attempts to off of the government's comforters, et cetera, in order to start with talks and ceasefire, etc. and they have not been successful. and if i look at, at those attempts, because i could see that most of them was rare based on on, on some wrong assumptions. and most of them were only appealing to russia and or

korean. but they ignore the fact that they to washington really the main part is of the conflict. also it took place or creating a territory. it is the tension between the trans atlantic and the russian or the, the, your race in the system there. and the appeals of various governments. so the risk diplomatic initiatives quite a lot of the sales rep from prusio and african delegation of this year in june and july again. and so that's the problem. volstead, the kiff and must go. i said, yes, they would enter into negotiations, but we have some break conditions. and 1st,

the other side has to comply with that sounds and tons of and they were actually preventing that's talks could start at all these, these ideas could have been an topic, an issue of negotiation, but not as a prior condition. and so, or for instance, they, uh, they typed in initiative or they, um, an mexico of the one not really and addressing the, the washington and the brussels, i mean, may, to, as being the main ex, this only appealing to russia and why we choose a, which is a mistake off the list as well. i mean the you cannot solve the conflict to invalid the bring one of the top buildings and sponsors in prison glass. what would we have to live in there?

thank you very much for sharing your insights with us today. good,

you're welcome. yep. and thank you for watching coke. this eric young on was a part the, the polity of the full months about him. prime minister wins parliamentary elections and set the tone a straight up the box. would new price dropping down the priority list. you as president joe biden signs it in march and see funding fail to keep the government running. put new aid for ukraine is nowhere on the horizon. but he still says that under no circumstances count americans to pull the key up, stalled k prime minister goes into damage control off the his defense chief suggested deploying british troops as instructive materials ukraine question. so