the thing you say pot issues goes with the guy that doesn't tell us the even these days this doesn't entail the cost to charlie and dissolves received it. that could be a good example of total events when it comes to living together. as of these different religions, whatever we see, you see most and just living side by side, they have their own separate practices when it comes to thing. but in the source, i like that together. so having the to really against a really just sort of this coming together is a really good sign that to coming to,

to consideration and having fits for future. the thought is all from us to the side . thank you for choosing us this sunday. we hope to see the, [000:00:00;00] the hello welcome to wells apart. the study of war is one of the oldest academic disciplines going back for millennia. but it encountered a new read, the new specimen in the ukrainian conflict. pursuit for years in its proxy form in 2022, it's built into the open,

affecting countries half of all the way. what's gonna teach us about the nature of more than the warfare. we'll discuss that. i'm now enjoyed by conflict research or create the race glasses for his english, so it's great to talk to thank you very much for your time. you're welcome. now i know you've started the complex for much of your academic career. you in reached the field by introducing your own modal of conflict escalation and hang on to a few years ago. for most people. this was a very academic, very fair reticle, very remote discipline. conflicts were far away. it wasn't something that had a direct impact on people's lives, at least on the lives of people in the western hemisphere. and i think that's changing now because regardless of where you are in the world, you will feel it's various expanded, but he will feel the consequences off of the ukrainian conflict. i wonder if that

has changed your own approach to the subject in any way to some extent or because the nature of the model has changed. and i think if they say cyber boy, for instance, and new technology and spend all that. so we are not dealing with the traditional understanding before which is more or less regulated by international law. so new kinds of i would say of fighting of competition, etc. that pat sent make it more difficult also to control that isn't the nature of the conflicts that has changed or do you think it's perhaps the cumulative effect of the old dynamics that has reached the boiling point one if can

no longer be contained this is not so near because you always have different stages of escalation and just a moment it's exploding or boiling. but what we can see clearly is that if i'm referring to my model of 9 steps of escalation, even if you're at one stage of escalation, like at the moment stage 8, which is a very, very, very, very deep escalation. you'll see them that on the same stage on the same steps. you have various red lines. in addition, also the general character of thing. it's a step 8, does not change, but you pass several red line slides. that's what criminals to stop up to the happened next occasionally or but on purpose as

a part of us to read the feed, the difference so that various grades and steps. oh, so it is still on the same basic step of escalation. this becomes more clear because of some model and kind of um and then and so i've avoided cetera. i hope we can come back to your model of conferences, push him a little bit later. but before we do that, i want to ask you this, i, i know that you see the war in ukraine is not just the single war, but the raw, the intertwining of 3 different conflicts. and you political conflict between the west and the east and interest states war between the russian ukraine and i'm in try ukraine struggled between pro western and pro russian ukrainians. which one did you think at this point is the most intact in towns and perhaps the most irreconcilable,

the most intense is the rational crane in. so because that's on the battlefields. oh, those are the dynamics of the chain of political conflict is actually because it's, they're getting result in the, in the rational cranium conflict and also the in trust grained and war is also closely connected to the russian and recreating and once it but for they basically talk about that later, but for the solutions you have to concentrate them to deal with the 3 different types in a different way. uh huh. you know, uh, exactly 20 years ago i was a student that one american university. i actually took a course on the theories, all locked in just a, it's more fair and i still have this uh, sent a mental artifact of the times when uh, you know, it was just the theoretical discipline for me, but i remember them back down in,

in my classes, we discussed the ukrainian case on the tension between russia and nato, was there at the tension between different parts of ukraine. pro western and professional was there, but what was lacking at that time was this kinetic interest a conflict. what allowed it to uh, take place, what pushed on that because for quite some time it seems that 2 other types of conflict uh, work contain it's, it's difficult to talk about clauses in analogy to natural science. causality because it is, it is a situation the dynamic is one of, of an into relationship and of, of circular causality. not of a single linear one. causality. so it is at moment you have the combinations of as

well. the intra ukrainian difficulty is a kind of a civil war because of the nationalist, extreme nationalist government, which after the made on protest the guts to power and strive to suppress the suppressed the protest movements and, and the o blast off the ground skin until this point well, let's, let's be, uh, concrete here, and i'll just suppressing the products that has, i mean they, they were present violent in terms of suffering, the linguistic rights and the political rights as well as what it was just about the product testing. no, no, no, no. in the beginning of the decision which was made by the new government which came to bubble off, the dental coverage had to leave the country. and was that the, the,

the for a bit to use the russian language as they all fish, all in communicating beslee administration. they were creating an administration and 1st developed protest movements from real guns. and that's close it with desa ocean dep forbid the concentra and, and the really really suppressed by even military actions. organized and commanded by kids, by the government, by the new government. and they became more, more, more like an ex david is because those who protested turns home more mode to become separatists. so to say, well, that is the future, but then the crane in state. so we fail to be protected in a better way. if we come get closer to the union of the, of the independent states,

you have on both sides of the recreate insights you have as well ordinary military forces and also relates you a private malaysia on the co creating inside the smell. and you had, you had malaysia support by, by russia and you had to protest. and so it became most violent and a real real war. now, you know, that russia was the one of course, to illinois. these special uh, military operation. uh, which is used in the west as a sort of pre tax to raise all the underlying context and put the blame squarely on uh on las glen. i'm not fishing for your excuse or for the crum infections. i think of the criminal, we'll have to face responsibility for that regardless of our discussion. but i strongly believe that the west as well, contributed in

a great deal to do these dynamic. now, how do you as a research or understand weston and need a strategy visa view russia prior to february 2022. and since then i started only to look at the intra create inside. i showed those look because i'm talking about 3 was we're trying to mingled but at the same time, you'll have you'll have the tensions between a lot to the west, but the trends atlantics system, which has not be the convent of the old west as renewed from the from the cold war, but it was a new system to trans atlantic. and on the other hand, not the east, with sort of the union what, what russia, but china, the, your raise, e and system actually that there's

a difference. so with different dynamics of because of the hedge among neil and the dynamics up on the one hand you is a losing more and more influence in the rule, not being any longer the police officer ruled. and on the other hand, the uprising china in and kind of the lions this with russia. but the china was for the united states and nato, much more actually a challenge. them the russian. because after the dissolution of this, of the indian, the boss, no. a no similar system like the native because the bus show 3 d community uh, bus diesel. if i wasn't such a big challenge for the united states, what was the purpose of, you know, acting very provocatively, these india, russia with major expansion?

because i think you would agree that most was thinking of many times that what is what it is thinking in ukraine is actually the state of war. it's the united states that wanted to change it as wanted neutral ukraine, ukraine, that could do whatever. once political, you would militarily, it should not be used as a bulwark against russia, which i mean for most better searchers is the existing mclean. how do you understand the west and push, even if you say russia wasn't such a big press, 4 for the west. i have to refer again to the dissolution of the so junior, in the russian partial pretty to system disappear last so and all the all. and then they to getting more and more close the, the, the does the russian border because of the new members and, and the location for the best perceived by russia,

by the government of russia was that of to the poland a check republic. and doug area became members of the later and, and the government of rush of us consultant and did not actually ok to this because they saw that they're secure. the interest has been respected. but later, when the bell, dick republics became members they, they, me the commons or the signals of disagreement of the russian government, which ignored really. and then we have that even the close to the russian border and this side of this and arresting. and how do you call it for from the south? and yeah, the missile launch size. yes. and the, but i mean, that was still a little bit further away. but the ukraine, i mean every,

every research or in the united states knows what ukraine means for us to historically and send to mentally, but even me, purely military terms. it's too close to moscow. what was the, i, i'm genuinely struggling to understand the strategy behind it. because surely they could not have expected the mosca would, would ignore the threat like that because i mean, even in old military manuals they, they have to react. i'm not sure with the but i really got what your question is because i stopped at answering by looking at, let's say, the chair, political context and. and then with the maneuvers which were organized by later in the baltic republic and in the black sea, at the same time when the president of the, of the created the order is actually to prepare to

regain control on the cri may, uh, and to, and on the plus spell. at the same time you had the maneuvers and at the same time, you'll have my movers on this, on the russian side, close to the, to the well crane and border. and these were actually seen by both sides as pro, locations us and, and let's do to escalate with scenarios of threats on both sides. and the danger over is, is that to be credible if your threats threaten, then you have to stop to, to implement the little bit so that people say yes, that's a serious threat. and that's a kind of a phone. what was the level of without any threats, we have to take a very short break right now, but we will be back peacefully in couple of minutes stationed

the,

[000:00:00;00] the welcome back to world support with conflict research or requests will present russell before the break. we were talking about the various publications or um, escrow a tour, a dynamic that proceeded to ukrainian conflict. and i know that for the last couple of why years since our daycare is many um, west of strategist, but particularly american strategies have been writing about a proxy war as a substitute for the actual kinetic conflicts. and i think when it comes to russia, you know, one of the reasons why russia, how to directly intervene in ukraine is to do away with the something you, it, you, all from the west saying that we are all peaceful at the same time pursuing very

aggressive policy, so it'd be a rush or if he's the post is that the russia perceived as aggressive. do you think this traveling just in the west actually allowed for a possibility of russia responding genetically? and do you think that that is, even though theoretically the idea there that a proxy measures do not exclude the possibility of a re a war. but in fact, they may make it even more likely. did an image which you have been describing just now. i actually am used by both sides of it, say again the transatlantic and the your asian side as the legitimize to, to increase the res, etc. and to prepare for the case that's the other side would start with an

address. and we know that the perception of, in such a situation is always so that's the one side. so that is the, the other side started and the other side is scale to off having cost any, any troubles, and started with like activities. so this, this is actually what's happened, a sense of, let's say the 2000 when, when some of say of the to read is bridge where step which existed to do control and to reduce ops and especially know cuz i'm a ment has been broken from the western side really western side, the united states, with the tech in libya, and 2001 or iraq as a 30,

it cetera. and all the other hand of the roof russian intervention in georgia in 2008 after the invitation of the they need to, to georgia and to create, to become members in 2008 and march bucharest, and answer yep. this, in this period of actually the building up scenarios of threats on, on both sides. so i heard you say that your claim is being held hostage and these big power rivalry, which i think affords the certainly valence all from you know, of an innocent victim. and being a student of psychology, i know that the victim pulled in the invitation of the say, i know the same thing because a victim lies behavior is a can actually be very exploitative and there's a certain strength to, uh,

being a victim. and i want to ask you, um whether you believe that your brain was truly in a sense, you know, a hostage here, or whether it deliberately tried to insert itself in a position when it can sell itself to them. because the bitter um, you know, play on their own, this rivalry. i'm really sure that at the beginning when russian troops entered the crane. so talking about february, last yeah, that's the, that's this tech was based on the same miscalculation hope, the russian side as well. and miscalculation on the fence atlantic side the message of this very 1st or the very 1st stage was our

mom's a serious to months that they may, to should withdrawal from the ship ship get out because it's too close to the russian area of interest. and oh the oh so that the old korean let us have become a member of the native. but the russian government decided really to, to invade to at tech. they'll create it in the expectation with expectation input b. s very short operation. not, not really of war, but in something like a sanction against form a members of, of the empire. then the cause of the surprising resistance on the crane is live. then the russian military has to

change the plans again and again and then discover no, it's not a matter of a couple of hours a days to occupied the cream by occupying the capital. the reason of the hope, the expectation boss that no real serious cox could start about a new architecture of security and peace because the old one was up to late actually for years already. and the, the, the months from the, especially for on the russian side. because of the bus, not, not long a soviet empire, but it goes to a smaller country and less powerful because of the oh so i won't say that this also more efficient than more cognizant of the way if he uses his power,

it's still pretty powerful. i mean, like in terms of military industrial complex, i think it has a yes. me quite a good cup of capacity there. yes, yes. but i mean, and the, the international relationship, because the big it got a balance, a p, a nato, and then only restaurant the what, how the site and more and more, the growing at the growing of the native system was really, could not be north any longer and therefore, my idea of us that the idea of it over, but it's pretty guys what's called a quick break conquering campaign, etc. would then mean so, okay, we have to admit, yes, the security, i could extra fees that the data is not up to date. we have to do something and the, the mom's which exceeds that, her id that the nate,

the should with throw even from germany and, and should not try to get the little green also as a member of member of so nature, which was the invitation of march in 2008 during the broker as conference. so when i said that the, the message of, of the new brain is used as a hostage in order to no pressure on real negotiation and reconsidering the existing, secure, and the system. uh huh. well uh we both know that these negotiations uh never happened. um the war it is uh what it is. as you mentioned according to your modal, as level 8, which stands for total insulation. um,

what can possibly allow us to move backwards rather than forward to level 9 and the base associated with it. you know that that's been many tens um, off of the government's comforters, et cetera, in order to start with talks and cease fire, et cetera. and they have not been successful. and if i look at, at those attempts, because i could see that most of them were based on, on, on some wrong assumptions. and most of them were only appealing to russia and or korean. but they ignore the fact that they to washington really the main purpose of the conflict. also, it took place on or creating

a territory. it is the tension between the trans atlantic and the russian or the, the um, your asian system there. and the appeals of various governments, so the red diplomatic initiatives quite a lot of the sales rep from prusio and african delegation of this year in june and july again. and so that's the problem posted the keys and must go. i said, yes, they would enter into negotiations, but we have some break conditions and 1st, the other side has to comply with that. so and so, and sons and they were actually preventing, that's,

talks, could start at all these, these ideas could have been an topic, an issue of negotiation, but not as a prior condition. and so, or, for instance, they, uh, it typed in initiative or they, um, an mexico. they have one not really and addressing the, the washington and the brussels. i mean native as being the main ex, this only appealing to russia and why we choose a, which is a mistake off the list as well. i'm in the account. i solve the conflict to invalid, the bring one of the top billings and sponsors in for physical as well, and we have to leave it there. thank you very much for sharing your insights with us today. groups are welcome. yep. and thank you for watching cope this here again

on world's a part the the, the ball tailed performance about him prime minister wins parliamentary elections and sets the tone straight off the bat with ukraine and dropping down the priority