warfare well to discuss that, i'm now enjoyed by conflict research or create the race glass will prefer the glass so it's great to talk to thank you very much for your time. you're welcome. now i know you started the complex for much of your academic career. you in reached the field by introducing your own modal conflict escalation and hang on to a few years ago. for most people. this was a very academic very say are ethical, very remote discipline. conflicts were far away. it wasn't something that had a direct impact on people's lives, at least on the lives of people in the western hemisphere. and i think that's changing now because regardless of where you are in the world, you will feel it's various expanded, but he will feel the consequences off of the ukrainian conflict. i wonder if that has changed your own approach to this object in any way to some extent because the nature of the mother in law has changed.

and i think if they say, cyber boy, for instance, and new technology and spend all that. so we are not reading this as a traditional understanding of 4, which is more or less regulated by international law. so new kinds of, i would say, of fighting of competition, etc. that's pads and make it more difficult. also to control that isn't the nature of the conflicts that has changed or do you think it's perhaps the cumulative effect of the old dynamics that has reached the boiling point one if can no longer be contained this is not so near because you always have different stages of escalation, and that is a moment,

it's exploding or boiling. but what we can see clearly is that if i'm referring to my model of 9 steps of escalation, even if you're at one stage of escalation, like at the moment stage 8, which is a very, very, very, very deep escalation. you'll see them that on the same stage on the same step. you have various red lines. in addition, also the general character of thing. it's a step 8, does not change, but you pass several red line slides. that's what criminals of stuff up to the happen. that's all occasionally or but on purpose as a part of this thread that feed the difference. so that various grades and steps.

oh so it is still on the same basic step of escalation. this becomes more clear because of some model i'm kind of um and then and so i've avoided cetera. i hope we can come back to your model of conference exploration a little bit later. but before we do that, i want to ask you this. i, i know that you see the war in ukraine is not just the single war, but the raw, the intertwining of 3 different conflicts. do political conflict between the west and the east and interest states war between russia and ukraine and an intra ukraine struggle between pro western and pro russian ukrainians. which one did you think at this point is the most intact in towns and perhaps the most irreconcilable . the most intense is the rational crane in so because that's on the battlefields. oh,

those are the dynamics of the king of political conflict is actually because they're getting visible in the, in the rational cranium conflict and also the interests for crane and war. and is also closely connected to the russian and or cranium once it but for they basically talk about that later. but for the solutions, you have to concentrate them to deal with the 3 different types in a different way. uh huh. you know, exactly 20 years ago i was a student, that's one american university. i actually took a course on the theories. all fox interest is more fair and i still have this uh, sent a mental artifact of the times when uh, you know, it was just to see a radical discipline for me, but i remember them back down in the, in my classes we discussed the ukrainian case on the tension between russia and

nato was there at the tension between different parts of ukraine, pro western in progression. it was there. but what was lacking of that time was this kinetic interest a conflict? what allowed it to uh, take place. what pushed on that because for quite some time uh, it seems that 2 other types of conflict uh, work contain it's as difficult to talk about, closes an analogy to natural science. causality because it is, it is a situation. the dynamic is one of, of an inter relationship and of, of circular causality. another of a single linear of one causality. so it is at moment you have the combinations of, as well. the intra ukrainian difficulty is a kind of

a civil war because of the nationalist, extreme nationalist government, which after the made on protest the guts to power and strive to suppress the suppressed the protest movements and, and the o blast off the ground skin. and to this point, well let's, let's be, uh, concrete here, and i'll just suppressing the product that has, i mean they, they were present violent in terms of suffering, the linguistic rights and the political rights as well as what it was just about the product testing. no, no, no, no, in the beginning of the session which was made by the new government which came to bubble off, the dental coverage had to leave the country. and was that the, the for a bit to use the rest of the language as they all fish saw in communicating best

way administration, they were creating an administration. and 1st, the web protest movements from real guns goodness, odessa was in the predictor of concentra and, and the really, really suppressed by even military actions, organized and commanded by kids, by the government, by the new government. and they became more, more, more like an ex david is because those who profess it turns home more mode to become separatists. so to say, well that is the future, but then the crane in state. so we've failed to be protected in a better way. if we come get closer to the union of the ups, the independent states, you have on both sides of the will create insights who have as well ordinary

military forces. and also believes here a private malaysia, it on the co crane inside the smell. and you have, you had malaysia support by, by russia and you had to protest. and so it became most violent and a real real war. now, you know, that russia was the one of course, to launch this special uh, military operation. uh, which is used in the west as a sort of pre text to raise all the underlying context and put the blame squarely on uh on las glen. i'm not fishing for your excuse or for the crum infections. i think the criminal will have to face responsibility for that regardless of our discussion, but i strongly believe that the west as well, contributed in a great deal to, to these dynamic. now, how do you as

a research or understand weston in nature strategy visa view russia prior to february 2022. and since then i started only to look at the intra are creating inside. i showed those look because i'm talking about 3 was we're trying to mingled but at the same time, you'll have you'll have the tensions between a look to the west. but the trends atlantics system, which has not be the convent of the old west as renewed from the, from the cold war. but it was a new system, the trans atlantic. and on the other hand, not the east with sort of the union. right, but russia. but china, the, you raise the system actually that there's a difference. so with different dynamics of because of the hedge among neil and the dynamics up on the one hand do you is a losing more,

more influence in the rule not being any longer the police officer ruled. and on the other hand, the uprising china in and kind of the lions this with russia. but the china was for the united states and nato, much more actually a challenge. them the russian. because after the dissolution of this, of the indian, the boss, no. a no symbol of the system like the native because the bus show 3, the community uh most dissolved, if i wasn't such a big challenge for the united states, what was the purpose of, you know, acting very provocatively, these india, russia with major expansion because i think you would agree that most post signal many times. that's what is what it is thinking in ukraine is actually the status

quan, it's the united states that wanted to change it as wanted. neutral ukraine, ukraine. that's good. the do whatever. once political, you would militarily, it should not be used as a bulwark against russia, which i mean for most the searchers is the existing ms. glean. how do you understand the west and push, even if you say russia wasn't such a big press, 4 for the west. i have to refer again to the dissolution of the so junior, in the russian by the previous system disappeared last. so, and all the, all, and then they to getting more and more close the, the, the, does the russian border because of the new members and, and the publication for the best perceived by russia, by the government of russia was that of, to poland. a check republic and ontario became members of the later

and, and the government, the rest of us consulted and did not actually okay to this because they saw that they're secure. the interest has been respected. but later, when the bell, dick republics became members they, they, me the commons or the signals of disagreement of the russian government which ignored really. and we have that even at close to the rest of the border and this side of this and arresting. and how do you call it to for, for me. so i was yeah. missile launch size. yes. and the, but i mean, that was still a little bit further away. but the ukraine, i mean every, every research or in the united states knows what ukraine means for us to historically and send to mentally. but even in purely military terms,

it's too close to moscow. what was the i, i'm genuinely struggling to understand the strategy behind it. because surely they could not have expected mosca would, would ignore the threat like that because i mean, even in old military manuals they, they have to react. i'm not sure with the but i really got what your question is because i stopped at answering by looking at, let's say, the chair, political context and. and then with the maneuvers which were organized by later in the baltic republic and in the black sea, at the same time when the president of the both do created in order to actually to bring pay a to re gain control on the cri may

a and to and on the bless spell. at the same time you had the maneuvers and at the same time, you had maneuvers on this, on the russian side, close to the 24 crane and border. and these were actually seen by both sides as pro locations and, and let's do to escalate with scenarios of threats on both sides. and the banjo was, is that to be credible if you're threats to threaten that you have to stop to, to implement the little bit so that people say yes, that's a serious threat. and that's a kind of a phony what was the 2nd level without any threats, we have to take a very short break right now, but we will be back peacefully in couple of minutes stationed the,

the, the, [000:00:00;00] the,

[000:00:00;00] the there's no end in sight over how you're going to continue to destroy the earth is the case for the med, most of the people. i tried to go to the gym, but i'm certainly not ready to fight russia. this is also of soon. this is the 3rd world lunacy re washing press for so the funder line likes to say we have the tools while we just start with stability and business deals to living on that. we have very close propaganda. you know, a price here in new york. i think we don't know the aftermath any time that you're not allowed to ask questions, you should ask all of the questions. some more questions, ask a better. the answer is will be the welcome back to world support with conflicts to research or request thoughts for

his english. so before the break, we were talking about the various publications or um escal, a tour and dynamic that proceed in the ukrainian conflict. and i know that for the last couple of years, and so i can take as many western strategies, but particularly american strategies have been writing about a proxy war as a substitute for the actual kinetic conflict. then i think when it comes to russia, you know, one of the reasons why a russia how to directly intervene in ukraine is to do away with the something you it's you, all from the west saying that we owe peaceful at the same time pursuing very aggressive policy, so it'd be a rush or if he's the pulse is that the russian perceived as aggressive. do you think this traveling just in the west actually allowed for a possibility of russia responding genetically and you're in,

do you're seeing them? that is, even though, theoretically, idea there that a proxy measures do not exclude the possibility of re a war. but in fact, they may make it even more likely. you did an amex, which you have been describing tests. now, i actually am used by both sides of it. say again the transatlantic and the duration side as the legitimize to to increase the res, etc. and to prepare for the case that's the other side, would start with an address. and we know that the perception of inductor situation is always. so that's the one side so that you see the other side started and the other side is scale t of having cost any,

any troubles and started with like david is. so this, this is actually what's happened since of let's say that 2000 when, when some of a of the to read is bridge where step which existed to do control and to reduce ops. and especially no comment has been broken from the western side. really western side, the united states with the tech and libya in 2001 or iraq as a 30, it cetera. and all the other hand of the roof russian intervention in georgia in 2008 off to the invitation of the they need to, to georgia and to create, to become members in 2008 and march,

bucharest. and then so you have this, this period of actually, of the building up scenarios of threats on both sides. so i heard you say that your claim is being held hostage and these big power rivalry, which i think affords the certainly valence off. um, you know, of an innocent victim and being a student to psychology, i know that the victim who would, in the invitational the say, i know the same things because a victim lies behavior is a can actually be very exploitative. and there's a certain strength to, uh, being a victim. and i want to ask you, um whether you believe that your brain was truly in a sense, you know, a hostage here, or whether it deliberately try to insert themselves in a position when they've can sell itself to the biggest the bid or um, you know,

play on their own, this rivalry, i'm really sure that at the beginning when russian troops entered the crane. so talking about february, last yeah, that's the that's this. a tech was based on the same miscalculation off the russian side as well and miscalculation on the transatlantic side. the message of this very 1st or the very 1st stage was our moms a serious to months. that's the ne to should withdrawal from the ship should get out because it's too close to the russian area of interest. and oh the

oh. so that will korean never should become a member of the native, but the russian government decided really to, to invade to that tech. they'll create it in the expectation with the expectation and put the ash, very short operation. not, not really of war, but to something like a sanction against former members of, of the empire. then, because of the surprising resistance on the crane is live, then the russian military has to change the plans again and again and then discover no, it's not a matter of a couple of hours a days to occupied the cream by occupying the capital. the reason of the hope, the expectation boss that no real serious cox could

start about a new architecture of security and peace. because the old one was up to late actually for years already. and the, the, the months from the, especially for on the russian side. because of the bus, not, not long the soviet and empire, but it goes to a smaller country and less powerful because of the, the say this also more efficient than more cognizant of the way if he uses his power, it's still pretty powerful. i'm in like in terms of a military industrial complex. i think it has a yes. me quite a good couple capacity there. yes. yes. but i mean, and the, the international relationship. because the big it got a balanced, a. p, a nato,

and then only russian on the what, how the site and more and more, the growing at the growing of the native system. it was really could not be north and longer. and therefore, my idea of us that the idea of it over, but it's pretty guys and what's called a quick break conquering campaign, etc. would then mean so ok, we have. 2 to admit just the security, i could extra fees that gotcha is not up to date. we have to do something, and the, the moms which exists it already, that the nate, the should withdrawal even from germany and should not strike ducats the little green also as a member of member of so nature,

which was the invitation of march 2008 during the broker as conference. so when i said that the, the message of, of the new plan is used as a hostage in order to, nope, both pressure on real negotiation and reconsidering the existing security system. uh huh. well uh we both know that these negotiations uh never happened. um the war it is uh what it is. as you mentioned according to your modal, as level 8, which stands for total insulation. um, what can possibly allow us to move backwards rather than forward to level 9 then the obese associated with it. you know that that's been many tens um, off of the government's comforters, et cetera,

in order to start with talks and cease fire, et cetera. and they have not been successful. and if i look at, at those attempts, because i could see that most of them were based on, on, on some wrong assumptions. and most of them were only appealing to russia and or korean. but they ignore the fact that they to washington really the main purpose of the conflict. also, it took place um, operating in territory. it is the tension between the trans atlantic and the russian or the, the, your asian system there. and the appeals of the various government, so the writ, diplomatic initiatives, quite

a lot of the sales rep from both of you and african delegation of this year in june and july again. and so that's the problem posted the keys and must go. i said, yes, they would enter into and it goes is, but we have some preconditions and 1st the other side has to comply with that. so and so, and sons and they were actually preventing, that's, talks, could start at all these, these ideas could have been and topic an issue of negotiation, but not as a prior condition. and so, or, for instance, they, uh, they typed in initiative or they, um,

an mexico. they have one not really and addressing the, the washington and the brussels, i mean may, to as being the main x, this only appealing to russia and why we choose a, which is a mistake off the list as well. i mean that you cannot solve the conflict to invalid the bring one of the top belligerence and sponsors in professional glass. what would we have to live in there? thank you very much for sharing your insights with us today. good. you're welcome.

and thank you for watching coke. this eric young on was a part the

the the the hello and welcome to cross stuff where all things are considered on people about the west as a nancy problem and it's just not in canada. the west is a long history of protecting the police and demonizing all things russian. the west is attempting to rewrite history. also a single math in the new york times tells us everything we need to know about the