the the i was just lying in bed when we were struck. i set up and i felt like my whole body was on fire. as the people then gather account of the tales of suffering, the policy then health minutes, few ones, the enclaves, hospitals may be forced to shut down within 48 hours. i mean, die of fuel shortages was being weather only adds to the problems in gather i was thinking many tier and crisis details for the hundreds of thousands forced from that homes into temporary shelves that accomplishes lots of international criminal court against these ready prime minister, been given isn't yeah, he comes from chucky lawyers who accused him of committing war crimes in genocide against policy and people whether or not the headlines this how you can get more

details on archie does come for us to case next with a focus on the ledge weaponized ation of anti semitism. stay with all the international, the, the name of the this of him. but he's, you got more of the see at the end of this, i guess i didn't mall what had a little more of a simple uh thought of it either. i won't say that it's not a lot of lot that is somewhat of the a media blast. yeah. you got one way just under then use it in video sort of the song of a k. i knew it. i love if it goes to you that, i mean,

i think you can only go see, i'm a persona of a, be that me court that i, i didn't go to get almost in to see a different so that sort of i, that out of in the see it, they have and the single method of the month of manual. and all that into model is the main dimension on it. be just a model minutes off on, you know, the system just likes it and say i couldn't of them. but these are, let's see, let me look to see like tennessee, but i didn't give the tenant out of the 2nd that on. so if i pull, let's see on there most to go boss i need to, i'm let me, sadie, one of the meeting mckinney, angels, new battery needs be what somebody that get some given which i'm up, but i see. okay, i see. i see it goes in a 2nd. i mean either it is by you say things on a certain different things that are going on. i think the interested in

the hello and welcome to cross talk. we're all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle . the most recent narrative change about the conflict and ukraine is the following . it's a spelling. interestingly, there is some truth to this. ukraine indeed faces a stalemate. it has limited options on the of and russia has many options. this worries, washington, the crossing ukraine. i'm joined by my guess tony kevin and ken brown. he is a former australian career diplomat in bel rate. we have even guides. he's a research associate at build greats institute of european studies. and in budapest

we cross the george samuel we. he has a pod cast here at the geico which can be found on youtube and locals. are gentleman cross lock rules and the fact that means you can jump any time you want. and i always appreciated mr. farmer investigator, tony, let me go to you 1st. here you recently wrote a pendant article under the title is the in game inside for ukraine, and i'm going to paraphrase you a little bit. ukraine has no options left, and russia has plenty. please explain that. well, russia has military and political and psychological superiority, a ticket for a shame that has clearly been established since last september. and the traits of the key of regime in my opinion, has become a ralph, russia now controls the pace of military activity at the friends. they can decide whether they wish to go forward or whether they wish to stay in

place. they couldn't vote a special military and circumvent uh, in which ukrainians on the side of christ with a choice of either going forward and being killed or not going forward. and being seen to be a to me um, unfortunately, zalinski watched them to go to the floor to be killed. and so we see an increasing decline in the tree quality. okay, of course is the tragic decline and the non bill of tree results of any consequence. no impressive wanted to go forward. they could, but we're up against the approaching this then self imposed limits that the silver gods ukraine as in some way the russian wills is still trying to protect as much as he can of ukraine,

civil society and civil infrastructure. these instructed has come up this week to take out what is necessary to take us in order to main site, including military superiority. and he's hoping, i think, rather desperately, lots of good. now, if i said this hub, that something will happen in key. if you bring the battery change to achieve a more realistic sense, more right. same with the realistic taste conveyed the guys gave it to somebody. he holds all the options, but yes, he is constrained. well, you know, it's even let me go to you. in belgrade, it's really interesting, they use the term stalemate because i think the west is based the stalemate and it's thinking and it's approach because it's not achieving any of its policy and aims. because at the same time and, and this is something that's contentious at times, my good friend, george and i, are you up is all the time, is that russia steadily is degrading our ukraine's military. that is one of the

primary objectives. and it is being done, though, those of us will not everyone is happy with the pace a bit. so i tend to agree with the former ambassador then, you know, as i've asked before, who's got the clock and who else the time and the russians have both stephen go ahead and build, right? yeah, exactly. i mean, what we're dealing with now is the blame game. it is obvious that i wouldn't even say ukraine and in many respects. so you, crane and even tommy was an object of a proxy ward that to wash and he's waging and gas drug shop. and uh, we see that the now now we don't know, you know who you who used to be blaine if the landscape is not responsible. that it is natal. therefore, it seems to me that the wife is trying to blame him. uh for the fee that especially for the uh, failed accounts are offensive that still cause $200000.00 ukrainian uh, soldiers, either being killed or severely uh, severely uh,

injured. so uh there are some really strange things happening here. uh, recently, major uh, getting id talked yackel was, uh, was killed in his uh apartment. and he was the advisor to a general zillow's, me commander in chief of the ukrainian army, who is in a conflict with the landscape because uh, she had other ideas about how the war should be ways, and this is not the 1st time that things like this happened in cuba let, let me remind you all what happened at the beginning of, of the special military operation after the 1st round of negotiations between moscow and give that is give you have, who was one of the negotiating members of the negotiating team on the whole the, the key upside of ukrainian side was gold murdered in cold blood, yet in front of his house and nothing happened, nothing followed

a so there are some really serious conflicts. and the source of these conflicts is the light side of the blame game. yeah it towards that's really interesting when you and i have done it in our pod cast, kind of deciphering what's going on and it seems like some publications are denigrating uminski pushing. so lose me. and then, but then the other way around here is there is a blame game going on. there is, there's a, there's a lot of panic going on. and, and of course, because of circumstances the ukraine isn't always top of mind. if you know what i mean, george, you know, what are the tea leaves tell you george story not to say because um we know of as of the ukrainian counter offensive as failed. however, rochester has to win this war and the russians who has to achieve the objectives that it had a set out. on the february, the 24 was the last year, which was demilitarization the notification deliberation of the the dumbass. they

haven't been achieved yet. so it's one thing to say that you grade clearly has failed and it's uh, account or offensive. but then russia has to then move forward and at the very minimum, liberate dumbass. i mean that, that has to be done and, and as well as a separate order for you and you know, some of the difficulty is that there is nobody in ukraine, no one in here who's going to accept and the minimum conditions that were offered with them. on which is that you actually give up your territorial claims on the dumbass and it's a promotion here. so you give up on crime. yeah. and you give up on the nato membership. it's so it's, it's very difficult to seeing how i mean the native membership, some of the united states in nature one i'm going to give up on that goal. but it's hard to see how any regime can emerge in uh into that would accept those terms.

so that's way to be honest, i think this will will continue. yeah. well, with the final final decision. yeah, that's actually george and, and we're both in agreement there. there has to be a regime change or a different personality, lenient when you go back to the former ambassador in australia. also in the background of all of this, you know, feelers are being sent out anonymous sources say approaching to of and members of the zalinski. so it goes all kind of all paid care about, you know, who would be willing, under what circumstances to have some kind of negotiation. the problem with this kind of cloak and dagger journalism that i've come across is it doesn't really take into account. well, the russians even want to negotiate with these people, go ahead and i'll squarely well, the answer is that the russians would not want to negotiate with the very young, trustworthy. and, and i pay a group of people who are running the show a new credit. and i mean,

these people are not serious they, they have a tom lee and equitably dealing with some indifference to the fact that hundreds of the best man i have gone dead or permanently incapacitated. now moving forwards, the old and the week, and the la even pregnant women to the friends putting uniforms on them. there seems to be exclusion difference on the part of the people around zalinski to the loss of the, of the life blood to last with a member. so how could you guys have someone who is essentially so c, i pass these people out. yet patrick, that, i mean this is, this is a huge dilemma for asset that they have. assume that if it's a rational act up and then at a certain point in time, the realization would be broad trying to key is that a, you've lost this, it's time to cut to last isn't the gosh guide. but these people are not rational.

so once again, i come back to this principle joyce, product and sizes. do you go forward to a huge offensive will, which will obviously cause great truck freedom on the civilian population and the infrastructure right across the brain? or do you somehow wait and hope that something happens in k s. and i think for the moment it seems to be a waiting game, the coach in the staple that i have decided to play. yeah, is stephen, what's your read on that? i oh, also thinking, i mean, it is kind of the way you want to phrase it. i mean, as long as you're not losing your winning so that, that's kind of a rushing interpretation of what's going on right now in light of this quote unquote stalemate. steven, yeah, exactly. uh well, it depends on manufacturers how long this is going to last for. i think i will certainly go into a 2024. uh and now the washington has the bay alarm. uh uh,

more precisely by it is by the ministration. because uh they, i think came to the realization that directly is winning the war, that the crane is losing uh, bobs. the, the question is whether they wants to pro long this indefinitely with the aim of, uh, as many russians soldiers and equipment being got, you know, destroyed, and people killed. uh, it's very cynical logic, but that's exactly what they are doing. however, rationalizes it came out to be stronger now after 2 years of war. and the on the other hand, you have the upcoming election is in the united states. by the way, there will be most probably any elections in ukraine because it's in war. and the last 2000 and needs the elections because it would show that he's not as strong as he pretends to be. so washington has about

a year to figure out what is going to, what it stands is going to be about is because uh as soon as uh, as trump wins. and it seems to be an imminent result. if the elections uh fox to the pallet in november of next year. uh then uh, the whole boise of washington 2 words uh, eastern europe towards your european question i would say will change. uh, so maybe the option of washington uh would be to drag a more of european countries into the war. and that would be the most tragic outcome for you is we can the minnesota, i have the jump in here, but we can we, with that, that is a real possibility with the people that were dealing with their gentlemen, i have to go to a hard break and after that hard break, we'll continue our discussion on ukraine's option stay with our case, the the,

to take a fresh look around as a life kaleidoscopic. isn't just a shifted reality distortion by tell us to do vision with no real live indians. fixtures, design to simplify will confuse really once a better wills. and is it just because it shows you fractured images, presented to this, but can you see through their illusion going underground? can the thing that would inform me to put them for the gifts, but the side of celia was this because they did just wouldn't care to get a car through the new year. oh for g for teach that way. know if i'm reaching the

scholars that should thoughtful, i knew that as i'm going to invest, i look forward to with that though, especially if it's the ocean by cheap and when you move, move them on the stairs from 1st month to month with the amount of water to move, let me look into that. i will just, i guess one or so the lowest, the unload over the age of 30 to the progressive rock and you see the sharp finish . this is just all just for good news. i'm a fraction and for them to come seem to do friday is the material ordering to empower people for the for sure. mention in the temperature of intention to some of the

on the welcome back across. ok, we're all things are considered. i'm peter will build to remind you, we're discussing ukraine's options. the okay, let's go to my favorite sputtering partner george in budapest. okay. we can put on the peter and george show right now. and i'm going to tear a page from your script and use it against me. and so i'm, so what solve the problem here. i mean, the russians are tied down. ukraine is a huge headache for them. there's other things going on in the post. so be it space also a headache and money is not going to dry up. i don't care how you do it,

is could it get there? and so, you know, what's the big deal? okay, well, kinase and winning, but it's not loading the site as well. was just fine, that's what you've been telling me for 20 months. george does ring true. many times . go ahead. when i get them, i have to keep saying that the link for the united states. this is still relatively low cost a fair. but it's sort of penny ante stuff. i mean, america has truly is to but you know, how well a cw2cw. it doesn't mean a great deal of all the united states given the scale of its budget. and as long as americans are not dying, and as long as america kind of avoid getting into a direct shooting war with russia, which is very serious, then america can keep it going. now the only caviar the, the only limitation is then you can keep it going. can you brain long without collapsing? and i, and in the that's a possibility. you great,

good indeed. collapse and then biden's plans will be, but no, but at the moment that as they said, is a bite ministration in the us policy mega. see if this is a good deal, because this is a headache for russia. russia doesn't know how to bring it to a satisfactory conclusion. they continue to lose lives. they continue to spend a great resources, and they haven't yet made a decision to fully commit to this war. you know, to say, okay, when we're not going to, with mobilize, we're going to really put our economy on a war funding and we're going to just bring this more finally to a conclusion. they haven't made that decision. so as far as the americans are concerned, we'll go, let's keep it going. it's they had a not house. well, let's go back to the farming basset or in australia, i a, a variation on george's argument right there. actually, it does apply to the cube regime. i mean zalinski and is inner circle. okay. maybe there won't be as much money, but it's still a lot of money. and as long as there's complet goes on,

the us is go to pay for it. oh and it's gonna pay for itself here. it's its features and all that. i mean, okay, maybe we're, we're not making much more progress at the front, but, you know, the status quote is least for the leaks there. it's a good dig. yes, and can i have the no on stewart? george just said. and that is, and it's very clear when you look at people like lindsey graham to the united states, it says goods to be killing soldiers on the craning side as it is to be killing. so i'm just on the russian side. and of course, a lot most out is the dying on the, on the training side by an order of magnitude. but you see, this is all kind of way cutting the rest of the world. and if you're looking at it in cold april, um i used to enable advisedly, g, i political times a week and you cry into the long run things a week or rest. well. so the weakening of you cried if you're looking at it from

associate past. the point of view from washington is a good saying that it doesn't matter really which side is being weak. and i want to emphasize that because the, the associate pass the, i mentioned the key evaluate is power levels by the associated patsy of the sorts of people in washington who uh, visually rest inside like, uh, we like kelly does the reasons why they're historical and cultural and so on. and i'm so yeah, i mean they, they will keep it going until something breaks in kids. and surely something must break and key of, i'm very impressed by the sort of human interest stories that are coming out all the time from a website that i'm impressed by cold crime leaks in g. and i mean they, they produce so much come remove what's really happening or something kind of break . well, you know, stephen is that, that's one of the things that i brought up in it is i actually give george kind of

already hinted towards it is that the ukraine is facing. society will collapse because it's completely financially dependent on it. donors in the west. okay. it's g d p is not worth talking about. it's indebted to its neck a. this, that is, quote, is untenable, for least a long time. we have winter coming up. of course it gets very cold there like it does here in russia. i mean, we'd, so, i mean the, the move, the political elites and the military leads. they may have their own designs, but society is good to continues to suffer. and we're going to still see people moving across the border and to europe. steven, exactly. i mean, to be quite frank, there is a big question whether ukraine is going to survive in any shape and form at the end of this as a country. because uh, besides the war happening in the east southeast of today's you, ukraine. there are,

of course pretensions on the parts of other countries on it's west of the borders at the same time why i'm really concerned about is the possibility of the spreading of this war. and, you know, this associate, a static logic was, was just mentioned. and in that light, i just brought brought it up in the previous section the, the states and by german, a minister of, uh, a milli, 3 bodies distorting us who said that the german society should be prepared for the possibility of a war in europe. i think this is really a scary, a language that he's using and i'm afraid that maybe by those administration might just want to let the europeans deal with this, i think and elegantly moved towards other spots, all the room complex. we see what, what's, what is happening in the middle east. well, the state of the se, but i think is quite interesting. you said that because it,

you could say that with tony told us the same thing about we're getting the russian world. i think that's really an interesting observation with the vitamin drip administration isn't bothered by a week in europe at the same time. yeah, exactly. i mean, they have a result of this is that the work that europe is, uh, it became irrelevant. and you can see people like uh, bypass around who globally sub sub that recently in the light on the stand. so who's on the line and other european leaders towards the what is happening in gaza? so uh, your is uh, the great it as a power. and this especially goes for germany and, and, and friends who were blindly, constantly just fulfilling the wishes of washington by sending all the weapons, all the money, all the a, a for a war in which there is no clear

a go that these countries have. yeah, well there they were, we can by design. let's remember that by design george over the last couple of days we had the former head of nato. what else? milson and another head. i mean, his name doesn't come to mind real quickly. they're all coming out with these new fangled ideas about how to change nato, partial nato limited nato. i mean it's, it's really quite astounding and scary because they, i guess they never read the 1st article of the nato trinity where you're not supposed to be starting military complex. okay. but by integrating ukraine partially, what is that, is that like partially pregnant? i don't really know what they're talking about. they sound like sociopaths to be george or the associate by the other, the under slugger. as most another thing as models the read the day without the form of supreme allied commander and this, suggesting that. okay, well, we'll give up on some of the territories. again,

there's no basis for thinking that anyone who can just give up on searches and the wrong ukraine can join late. so, but the idea is, of course, insane because because of the russians realize that this around the brain will become a member of nato. russia is every incentive to keep the will going and prevent this will pump the ukraine, become a member of nato. and no, i mean, nato is going to accept us around the state. that is, the better we have more with in other states. i mean that's, that's the minimum condition that you have to fulfill to be a member of nato is, as you said, article one says, you cannot have any member of nato that is involved in big or any kind of a conflict with a loan member. no, nathan member states, so if you grand would do it wrong to greenwich or join nato, i am still have claims on the territory that is not bought of russian federation

and you are violating article one. no one in nate who is going to agree essentially to be in a due fact the war against russia want maybe honestly in a bad but, but i don't think someone else is going to buy into it. well, i mean it, let's go back to australia. tony, i mean if, if there is a ukraine in some limited way is brought into nato and it's in, in conflict with russia, then one, what would stop the russians from hitting tiling in berlin? washington mean that the alliance is at war with russia, and this would be something that would be a choice of graven choice on the part of nato. the don't, these people are just standard the according world war 3. go ahead. to be honest, i don't worry about the word extending into your i think since that last crucial, amazing. that's of the night. so it ministers with the landscape came and then was humiliated. yeah. um

a few months ago i think that prospect has completely receded now. um, so the robots just the thing is gotta be settled within the present board is a few cried one way, one way or another. it's david, let me give you the last word before we go to before we end the program. yeah, well uh, i think that the, this uh situation is developing want to, and we know is that the war will continue and that, uh, washington will continue to, to pay for as maybe they will sound less aid. but the reason that you were seeing the f sixteens being deployed romania uh from uh, from the other ones. and uh, most probably, uh the pain and we'll get these uh, these plans. so the where we will continue for sonic cent. but i think that that is more than clear that russia is winning the war. yeah, it's a, it's unfortunate and we'll have to have so much more waste them treasury ended lives with an outcome that was already pre determined on the 1st day of this

conflict in february of last year. gentlemen, that's all the time we have one to take my guessing cameras. bell, great. and in budapest and of course i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at r t c. you next time. remember cross talk from the the, [000:00:00;00] the