dan boons at the canyon nation has not recovered from on sale. now. the as bombs once again, rain down around northern gathers. i'll ship a hospital easily and says it's helping to keep the facility going with michael supplies. the gap to is that possible? say that was the raise against time to save the most vulnerable, demanding newborn babies. and these 2 safety washington doesn't want to die user. and since i believe this washington does, on this most of the way, which is a real doesn't play. russia stopped if somebody takes a mount washington and telling argy and an exclusive interview, that'd be us effectively green lives. these rules actions in gatzo at

a 5 day march gets on the way these role as a families of those taken hostage by, by the last month the mind about to move it done to release the life changing place. because keeping up others all the headlines of stories with following this, how not international the next episode of cross to discuss the way forward for your trade in ukraine's options. the hello and welcome to cross talk. we're all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle . the most recent narrative change about the conflict and ukraine is the following . it's a stalemate. interest mainly there is some truth of this. ukraine's indeed face as

a stalemate. it has limited options. on the other hand, russia has many options. this worries washington, the cross option ukraine. i'm joined by my guess tony kevin and ken brown. he is a former australian career diplomat in bel rate. we have even guides. he's a research associate at bell greats institute of european studies, adding budapest requests of george samuel we. he has a pod cast here at the geico which can be found on youtube and locals, or gentleman cross black roles. and i think that means you can jump anytime you want, and i always appreciated mr. farmer invested or tony. let me go to you 1st. here you recently wrote a pendant article under the title is the in game inside for ukraine. and i'm going to paraphrase you a little bit. ukraine has no options left, and russia has plenty. please explain that. well, russia has military and political and psychological superiority.

the key for a shame that has clearly been established since last september. and the traits of the creative regime, in my opinion, has become a ralph, russia now controls the pace of military activity at the friends. they can decide whether they wish to go forward or whether they wish to stay in place. they couldn't vote a special military and circumvent uh and which ukrainians on the side of christ with the choice of either going forward and being killed or not going forward and being seemed to be a to me. um. unfortunately, zalinski wants them to go forward and be killed. and so we see an increasing decline in the tree quality of k of sources,

the tragic decline and the non bill of 3 results of any consequence. no impressive wanted to go forward. they could, but we're up against t approaching this, then self imposed limits that these feel regardless ukraine, as in some way the russian world is still trying to protect as much as he can of the crate and civil society and civil infrastructure. he's instructed his commanders only to take out what is necessary to take us in order to maintain clear military superiority at these, hoping i think, rather desperately. lots of good. now, if i said this hub, that something will happen in key. if you bring the battery pains to achieve a more realistic sense, all right, same with the realistic pace conveyed the guys you guys have to come up. he holds

all the options, but yes, he is constrained. well, you know, it's even let me go to you in belgrade, it's really interesting. they use the term stalemate because i think the west is face the stalemate and it's thinking and it's approach because it's not achieving any of its policy and aims. because at the same time and, and this is something that is contentious at times, my good friend, george and i, are you up is all the time, is that russia steadily is degrading our ukraine's military. that is one of the primary objectives and it is being done, though, those of us will not. everyone is happy with the pace a bit. so i tend to agree with the former ambassador that, you know, as i've asked before, who's got the clock and who else the time and the russians have both stephen, go ahead and build great. yeah, exactly. i mean, what we are dealing with now is the blame game. it is obvious that i wouldn't even say ukraine and in many respects. so you, crane and even. and tommy was an object of a proxy ward that washington is waging against russia. and we see that

now we don't know, you know who you who used to be blank if the last key is not responsible that it is made. so therefore. 2 it seems to me that the worst is trying to blame him for to the feet that especially for the uh, failed the counter offensive that still car $200000.00 ukrainian soldiers either being killed or severely severely injured. so uh, there are some really strange things happening here. uh, recently, major, uh, getting id talked yackel was, uh, was killed in his uh apartment. and he was the advisor to a general zillow's, me commander in chief of the ukrainian army, who is in a conflict with the landscape because he had other ideas about how the war should be waged. and this is not the 1st time that things like this happen again,

let lucky remind you all what happened at the beginning of the special military operation. after the 1st round of negotiations between moscow and give, danny said you have who was one of the negotiating members of the negotiating the theme of the of the whole the, the key assign that'd be great inside was gold murdered in cold blood, yet in front of his house and nothing happened, nothing followed. so there are some really serious conflicts and the source of these conflicts is the right side of the blame game. yeah it towards it's really interesting when you and i have done it on our pod cast, kind of deciphering what's going on. it seems like some publications are denigrating as a landscape bushings i lose me and then, but then the other way around here is there is a blame game going on. there is, there's a, there's a lot of panic going on. and, and of course, because of circumstances the ukraine isn't always top of mind if you know what i

mean, george, you know, what are the tea leaves tell you george story how to say because, um, we know of a sense of the ukraine you encounter offensive has failed, however, rochester has to win this war and the russians who has to achieve the objectives that it had a set out. on the february, the 24 was the last year, which was demilitarization the notification deliberation of the the dumbass. they haven't been achieved yet. so it's one thing to say that you grade clearly has fail . um, and it's uh, a counter offensive, but then russia has to then move forward and at the very minimum, liberate dumbass. i mean that, that has to be done and, and as well as a, is appropriate. and uh, you know, some of the difficulty is that there's nobody in ukraine, no one in here who's going to accept to the minimum conditions that are upset with

the mind. which is that you asked me to give up where you have a territorial claims on the dumbass and the promotion here. so you give up on crimea and you give up on the nato membership. it's so it's, it's very difficult to seeing how i mean, the nato membership, some of the united states and nato. and i'm going to give up on that goal. but it's hard to see how any regime can emerge in uh into that with accept those terms. so that's way to be honest, i think this will will continue. yeah. well, with the final final decision. yeah, that's actually george and, and we're both in agreement there. there has to be a reason change or a different personality, lenient when you go back to the former ambassador in australia. also in the background of all of this, you know, feelers are being sent out a not him is sources say, approaching to of and members of the zalinski. so it goes all kind of all paid care about, you know, who would be willing, under what circumstances to have some kind of negotiation. the problem with this

kind of cloak and dagger journalism that i've come across is it doesn't really take into account. well, the russians even wants negotiate with these people. go ahead and i'll show you what the answer is. the directions would not want to negotiate with the very and trustworthy and, and um by a group of people who are running the show in new credit. and i mean, these people are not serious they, they have a tom lee and equitably dealing with some indifference to the fact that hundreds of the best man i have gone dead or permanently incapacitated. and now moving forwards, the old and the week, and the la even pregnant women to the friends putting uniforms on them. there seems to be explaining difference on the part of the people around zalinski to the loss

of their, of their life. but i'd love to be a member. so how could you guys have someone who is essentially so c, i pass these people out. yeah, patrick, of that, i mean this is, this is a huge dilemma for us so that they have assume that cabinets a rational act up. and then at a certain point in time, the realization would be pro time to key of lift. hey, you've lost this. it's time to cut to last was in the gosh guide. but these people are not rational. so once again, i come back to this dreadful joyce, product and sizes. do you go forward to a huge offensive will, which will obviously cause great freedom on the civilian population and the infrastructure right across the brain? or do you somehow wait and hope that something happens in k s? i think for the moment it seems to be a waiting game, the coach and the staple that i have decided to play. yeah. is stephen,

what's your read on that? i also think, i mean, it is kind of the way you want to phrase it. i mean, as long as you're not losing your winning so that that's what kind of a rushing interpretation of what's going on right now in light of this quote unquote stalemate. steven? yeah, exactly. uh well, it depends on manufacturers how long this is going to last for i think i will certainly go into a 2024. uh and now the washington has the bay alarm. uh uh, more precisely by it has vitals organization because uh they, i think came to realization that directly is winning the war that the crane is losing uh, bobs. the, the question is whether they wants to pro long this indefinitely with the aim of, uh, as many russians soldiers and equipments being got, you know, destroyed, and people killed. uh, it's very cynical logic, but that's exactly what they are doing. however, russia is,

it came out to be stronger now after 2 years of war. and the on the other hand, you have the upcoming election is in the united states. by the way, there won't be, uh, most, probably any elections in ukraine because it's in war and the last 2000 and needs the elections because it would show that he's not as strong as he pretends to be. so washington has about a year to figure out what is going to, what it stands is going to be about is because uh as soon as uh, as trump wins. and it seems to be an imminent result. if the elections hosted held in november and next year, uh then uh, the whole boise of washington 2 words uh, eastern europe towards your european question i would say will change. uh, so maybe the option of washington uh would be to drag more of european countries

into the war. and that would be the most tragic outcome for you is we have the minnesota, i have the jump in here. but we can, we, with that, that is a real possibility with the people that were dealing with their gentlemen, i have to go to a hard break. and after that hard break, we'll continue our discussion on ukraine's option stay without the,

the, the, [000:00:00;00] the, [000:00:00;00]

the the, the welcome back across software. all things are considered. i'm peter will build to remind you, we're discussing ukraine's options. the okay, let's go to my favorite sparring partner, george in budapest. ok. we can put on the peter and george show right now. and i'm going to tear a page from your script and use it against me. and so i'm,

so what solve the problem here. i mean, the russians are tied down. ukraine is a huge headache for them. there's other things going on in the post. soviet space, also a headache and money is not going to dry up. i don't care how you do it, is could it get there? and so, you know, what's the big deal? okay, well, crane is in winning, but it's not losing. the status quo is just fine. that's what you've been telling me for 20 months. george does ring true. many times go ahead. when i get them, i have to keep saying that the link for the united states, this is still relatively low cost, a fair. so it's sort of penny ante stuff. i mean, american has truly is to but you know, how well a cw2cw. it doesn't mean a great deal of all the united states given the scale of its budget. and as long as americans are not dying, and as long as america kind of avoid getting into a direct shooting war with russia, which is very, very serious,

then america can keep it going. now the only caviar the, the only limitation is then you can keep it going. can you brain long without collapsing? and i, and in the that's a possibility. you're going to indeed collapse and then biden's plans will be, but no, but at the moment that as they said, is a bite ministration in the us balls and mega. see if this is a good deal, because this is a headache for russia. russia doesn't know how to bring it to a satisfactory conclusion. they continue to lose lives. they continue to spend a great resources, and they haven't yet made a decision to fully commit to this war. you know, to say, okay, when we're not going to, with mobilize, we're going to really put our economy on a war funding and we're going to just bring this more finally to a conclusion. they haven't made that decision. so as far as the americans are concerned, we'll go, let's keep it going. it's they had a not house. well, let's go back to the farming basset or in australia, i a, a variation on george's argument right there. actually,

it does apply to the cube regime. i mean zalinski and is inner circle. okay. maybe there won't be as much money, but it's still a lot of money. and as long as there's complet goes on, the us is go to pay for it. oh, and it's gonna pay for itself, care its its features and all that. i mean, okay, maybe we're, we're not making much progress at the front, but you know, the status quo. oh, it least for the leads there. it's a good dig. yes. and can i have to know on stewart george just said, and that is, and it's very clear when you look at people like lindsey graham to the united states, it says goods to be killing soldiers on the training side as it is to be killing. so i'm just on the russian side, and of course a lot most out is the dying on the, on the training side by an order of magnitude. but you see, this is all part of wakening the rest and wilt. and if you're looking at it in cold

table, um i used to enable advisedly, g, i political times a week and you cry into the long run lanes a week or rest. well, so the weakening of you cried if you're looking at it from associate past. the point of view from washington is a good saying that it doesn't matter really which side is being weak. and i want to emphasize that because the, the associate past the, i mentioned of the key evaluate is power levels by the associated patsy of the sorts of people in washington who uh, visually rest of the big uh, we like kelly does the reasons why they're historical and cultural and so and i'm so yeah, i mean they, they will keep it going until something breaks in kids. and surely something must break and give, i'm very impressed by the sort of human interest stories that are coming out all the time from

a website that i'm impressed by cold crime leaks in g. and i mean they, they produce so much coming loose and that's what's really happening. something's going to break. well, you know, stephen is that, that's one of the things that i brought up in it is i actually give george kind of already hinted towards it is that the ukraine is facing suicidal collapse because it's completely financially dependent on it. donors in the west. okay. it's g d p is not worth talking about. it's indebted to its neck. um, this status quote is untenable, for least a long time. we have winter coming up. of course it gets very cold there like it does here in russia. i mean, we'd, so, i mean the, the middle, the political elites and the military leads. they may have their own designs, but society is good. it continues to suffer. and we're gonna still see people moving across the border into europe. steven? exactly. i mean, to be quite frank, there is a big question whether ukraine is going to survive in any shape and form at the end

of this as a country. because uh, besides the war happening in the east and southeast of today's u. uh, ukraine. there are, of course pretensions on the parts of other countries on it's west of the borders at the same time why i'm really concerned about is the possibility of the spreading of this war. and you know, this. so socio paddic logic was, was just mentioned. and in that light, i just brought it up in the previous section the, the states and by german minister of, uh, a military bodies be story is who said that the german society should be prepared for the possibility of a war in europe. i think this is really a scary, a language that he's using and i'm afraid that may be bylaws, administration might just want to let the europeans deal with this,

i think and elegantly moved towards other spots, all the room complex. we see you what's, what is happening in the middle east. well, the state of the state, but i think it's quite interesting. you said that because it, you could say that we've, tony told us the same thing about we're getting the russian world. i think that's a really an interesting observation with abiding been great, it's administration isn't bothered by a week in europe at the same time. yeah, exactly. i mean, they have a result of this is that the work that europe is, uh, it became irrelevant. and you can see people like uh, bypass around who, who overly sub sub that recently in the light of the stand. so who's on the line and other european leaders towards the what is happening in gaza? so uh, your is the great it as a power and this especially goes for germany and, and, and friends who were blindly, constantly just, um, uh,

fulfilling the wishes of washington by sending all the weapons all the money, all the a, a for a war in which there is no clear a go that these countries have. yeah, well there they were. we can by design. let's remember that by design george over the last couple of days we had the former head of nato. what else? milson and another head. i mean, his name doesn't come to mind real quickly. they're all coming out with these new fangled ideas about how to change nato, partial nato limited nato. i mean, it's really quite astounding and scary because they, i guess they never read the 1st article of the nato trinity where you're not supposed to be starting military complex. okay. but by integrating ukraine partially, what is that, is that like partially pregnant? i don't really know what they're talking about. they sound like socio pass to be george, by the associate,

by the other. the under slugger is loose. another thing as models the read the they will go to the full and the supreme allied commander. and this, suggesting that, okay, well, we'll give up on some of the territories. again, there's no basis for thinking that anyone who can just give up on searches and the wrong ukraine can join nate. so, but the idea is, of course, insane because because of the russians realize that this around the brain will become a member of nato. russia is every incentive to keep the will going and prevent this pump. the ukraine become a member of nato. and no, i mean, nato is going to accept us around the state. that is, the better we have more with in other states. i mean that's, that's the minimum condition that you have to fulfill to be a member of nato to, as you said, article one says, you cannot have any member of nato that is involved in big or any kind of

a conflict with a loan member. no nature member states, so if you grand would do it wrong to greenwich or join nato, i am still have claims on a charity that is not bought of russian federation and you are violating article one. no one the late who is going to agree essentially to be in a due fact, the war against russia want maybe honestly in a bad but, but i don't think someone else is going to buy into it. well, i mean it, let's go back to australia. tony, i mean if, if there is a ukraine in some limited way is brought into nato and it's in, in conflict with russia, then one, what would stop the russians from hitting tiling in berlin? washington mean that the alliance is at war with russia, and this would be something that would be a choice of graven choice on the part of nato. the don't, these people are just standard the according world war 3. go ahead. to be honest,

i don't worry about the word extending into your i think since that last crucial, amazing out of the night. so it ministers with the landscape came and then was humiliated. yeah. um a few months ago i think that prospect has completely receded now. um, so there was this thing is gotta be settled within the the present board is a few cried one way, one way or another statement. let me give you the last word before we go to before we end the program. yeah, well uh, i think that the, this uh, situation is developing. what we know is that the war will continue and that, uh, washington will continue to, to pay for his maybe they uh, will sign the last 8. but the reason that you were seeing the f sixteens being deployed is the romania uh from uh, from the other ones. and uh, most probably, uh the frame will get these uh, these plans. so the world will continue. uh,

for some extent. but i think that that is more than clear that russia is winning the war. yeah, it's a, it's unfortunate and we'll have to have so much more waste of treasury and of lives with the outcome that was already pre determined on the 1st day of this conflict. in february of last year, gentleman that's all the time we have one to thank my guessing cameras. bell. great . and in budapest, and of course i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at ortiz. so you next time, remember, cross talk from the hi. i'm receptive and i'm here to plan with you whatever you do. do not watch my new show. seriously. why watch something that's so different. little opinions that he won't get anywhere else. welcome to please,

or do the have the state department c i a weapons, bankers, multi 1000000000 dollar corporations. choose your fax for you. go ahead. i changed and whatever you do. don't watch my show state main street because i'm probably going to make you uncomfortable. my show is called stretching time, but again,

it's not, we don't want to watch it because it might just change the way inside the, the, the dig almost like a in good canada. yeah. the one with dig around with a lot of the city. yeah. it's the one, the a, the, the, on the 5th and data sort of a pass, a lot of us uh, what do you see l, e d, i. e, no, no, maybe it on the homeless and all that good sound good and nadia, you love it. i got a bunch of you guys get all of the stuff. okay. probably you had own company in the