and now the front of the wall, the wall street journal has published an ex spots assessment of investors resilience to western economic and diplomatic pressure. so far, the message is clear of the strategy has been a failure. for more details have moved to our website all to dot com. i'm have a great day the time after nancy, and welcome back to going underground broadcast the all around the world from 1228, host the u. a. e, which at the un security council, has forced the issue of a cease fire minutes. the u. k. u, as you nation backed alleged garza genocide, while thousands have been killed in gaza near jerusalem. hundreds of thousands may

be killed through excess debts in europe. this winter energy is i'll give you the key then in gaza, called 28 and the opec last meeting with jesus e countries plus russia. iran, venezuela, and others have so far, refused nato, a nation close to pump more oil. joining me now from one of the world's biggest competent mississippi's new york city is abbey ridge and during the head of global markets and research as energy intelligence, an adjunct research scholar at columbia university center on global energy policy. i mean, thanks so much for coming back on. so we've had no and stream. we've had the saudi arabia refusing to bomb lower all along with their big plus members. and presumably, markets already realize that the, the numbers killed in the winter in western europe will be, will be even more than in, well, it will be more, but it won't be even more that in the, in gaza. yeah. first thanks for having me. i'm certainly a lot doing on the,

in the role of energy introducing your way. oh, and gas markets and, and of course, the politics kind of stuck in between all of it. you know, we're also, you know, kind of going through this roller coaster, you know, within the year where you've had a pretty hot summer. uh, you know, not just temperature wise, but in terms of demand and consumption, the things are going to cooling off as we typically do with that at this time of the year. and, you know, but allowance from the, you know, looking to the end of the year and a half to 2024 for sure, but yet there's no increase in oil prices. yeah, i mean, you know what, i mean, november a seasonally is, is always, you know, it has to be really ne, not always the worst month for oil prices. so in some service i'm not depending on who you are. of course, who you are. yeah, i do the best job. yeah. yeah, absolutely. a price. yes. it is always a, you know, a tough month to get the price to go up. it's typically a month for the price goes down. and there's always some drama, you know, with the,

not always, but usually some drama would be little bit plus heading into thanksgiving weekend. so there's that as well. but all those countries, but didn't want to cease fact, any confident that there wasn't going to be a why the conflagration that would effect oil prices. i mean, they were confidently saying, we don't want to cease fire. all these children are dying, it's fine, they're all being killed in terms of its effect. boomer, i'm impact on the economies of western europe and the united states. yeah, i mean the, the, the, the conflict of the situation is, is obviously, uh, you know, pretty, pretty dire and tragic in many ways. um, you know, since the early days, you know, after october 7th, so we were looking for is, is let me just mention which is, you know, the possibility of, uh, an expansion of the, uh, because like, you know, pulling in other countries. boeing in, you know, has a lot of dental or the item pulling into iran in particular directly to the conflict with israel, the,

but also we do have relate to some of the other countries in the, in the regions. i know that never happened. right. and, you know, as every week went by, there was increasingly clear that you know, you're wrong, wiley may have been indirectly involved in sparking the conflict and indirectly did not want to get involved. and even with the others, you know that, that, that never really, you know, have um, uh, gotten worse. um and even, you know, even be able to us and other, you know, have these real allies were pretty keen on keeping their, on a particular out of it. so for us applies to why we haven't really seen much of a disruption. you know, there was obviously that kind of the initial concern and worry and spicing oil prices, the quickly evaporated. and then we're kind of back down to, you know, to different on the members even though it was a big family. obviously the conflict began decades ago in, in the 1940s, but it was a clearly that the iran, which i'm denied any involvement in october 7,

said the they, they could be a big in, but i mean, i sort of senior, his really officials were quoted as saying israel once in the usa, to diplomatically work the pressure as well, to with drawer, it's a troops from the outer red when unit on the, on the outskirts of the golden heights. clearly the united states. i don't know what connections they have with as well, but clearly iran was the big energy factor here. the energy factor uh again with you is, uh you and every side you know, kind of wanted to stay out of it and not really get involved in any kind of escalating the crisis. so that, you know, and that should be around the oil prices that they kind of come to market down even just kind of from a, you know, from the standpoint of equity markets and other markets over a little bit, you know, an easy, but the costs are in the beginning, but everything just has come down and then they obviously saw, you know, sort of desolated in any way, but it has not, you know, kind of become a broader regional issue which is what we were looking for to see if there was

actually going to be your supply impact, but if it hasn't had an impact directly on the, on the grounds of brands and 9 mix it over the dead bodies of these thousands of children by the incentives, the energy security advisor, aimless hochstein to israel. while this was happening, i mean, i mean one way i go to as why, um, uh, the united states as one to higher oil prices because it isn't that exponent. but in another way, well, it was the doing there. and why with these rarely papers talking about tons of in gas in gaza while we were watching the pictures of all of these muddy children? yeah, i mean look, i mean, i think she, you know, i think there are those oil and gas, you know, kind of issues or play from the, you know, from the us standpoint, the focus, you know, has been on to keep things. one is not letting the situation escalate and finding,

you know, sort of offer as findings on, you know, the middle ground where hostages and other things to be giving you the shaded us that, you mean, you know, ask, i obviously is escalating because every day you monitors more children were being killed, you mean not escalated geographically. it was contained within the 2000000 people living in the message, gaza strip. right. and i also try to find a way to kind of come up with, you know, with, with, with some ways to address the civilian casualties. this relation address, often situation. so to find the middle around from, from all sides. and i think the 2nd point is directly the energy, right. i mean, i think this, this administration is very, is hypersensitive about energy prices because of the general and then the presidential election. you mean? yeah, exactly. you know, i'm, you know, it's, it's holiday season. you know, a lot of folks are traveling is, is going to 4 units out of the year. so there's that. and then of course, looking at the grade $24.00, right? we don't want, you know, we don't want us to turn into a big, you know, brought original issue and then you have a 100 and hundreds. and so, you know, it's every dollar oil prices like you had last year. you know,

when the rest of your big conflict 1st broke down so. so definitely want to avoid that. that was interesting is when the oil side, you know, the supply destruction on the natural gas side, as you did right. i is 0 to down to tomorrow, feel that i had a you know, how does that matter. egypt. and then i know other areas under, that was another thing that's kind of been, you know, approximately reversed and, and in recent weeks. and that was also part of the, you know, part of the, the, the discussion, you know, part of the, the focus your mind just where this ellen g comes from a process through israel and they shut it down after october, 7th to egypt as the, as an officer of the deal uh, also the off of israel. uh, so when i get the passes in israel, some of it actually goes into egypt, which gives we export it out and we just don't wanna give, since you domestically jet and solve it, gets re escorted out. and so that was shut down for a couple of weeks and then you know, it's now back on us now that was also part of it. why, why does egypt the d

n n g off the coast of palestine or israel where the occupied territories coming headed elsewhere? why is it collaborating so closely with a government video on paper and they say they disagree with the edge cause of genocide about yeah, why don't they can't really get anywhere else to. yeah, this is a product that was kind of, you know, code developed and co commercialized in an easy, it was an outlet for the gasket and develop, you know, egypt was, it was not an outlet for, for getting that a gas, you know, a home, you know, through elegy exports to jr, up and other sources or so you know that, that, you know, it was kind of a commercial business decision that they came out of for many years. uh, and you know, and, and run. and we'll kind of see what was your point, you know, obviously there's, there's kind of this big push back up against the, you know, kind of the civilian situation. and you've got, uh, we'll see what the future of that relationship looks like. yeah,

it seems strange to me talking about uh, oil revenues, future revenues which is reported and is rarely bare press from energy resources given there are people probably dying 10 i children dying to night because of the cold in guys who gone to heat from their homes what exactly is the extent of energy reserves in this area where people kind of hate themselves tonight? i mean, uh, is it uh which way you can hundreds of millions of dollars with millions of dollars worth of gas from kaiser. i mean, you know, to reserve your reserve standpoint, there are millions of dollars of, of, of, of gas there. i think the likelihood of it any time soon getting commercialized, right. you know, you kind of have to go through the process of bringing in an operator as would be interested in developing these resources, you know, figuring out, you know, the, the partnerships, the revenue sharing with, you know, local government, things like that. all of that. and you know, seems like, you know, a very,

very distant type of potential situation. i mean, vps rece run out. so reports about b p's, the lease on the expiration. right. so i understand, yeah, this is a run out. i mean, that's the thing, right? the, the producers, the operator is, you don't need to cause the political stability they need to, you know, see a security situation that stable, they're not, you know, is obviously now if things are, you know, quite a messy but you know, they're not good. they're not likely to kind of he lives remember, why is it, why was this guy being sent that in a most hochstein? i mean, he worked in texas gas my markets, you'd expect proper diplomats to be visiting israel ad to discuss the ledger genocide, not oil. people the main um energy advisor to the by the ministration being sent to mid, slowly uh,

all the telling. well what was the last 4 of them as well as the him is the diplomat. the know has gotten quite a few deep relationships in the region. he's been in the region and worked there many times, this ministration over the last, you know, couple of years, you know, and then even kind of creating the ministration. you know, he's been there and he's got, you know, kind of a relationship, you know, pretty advisor at all. but he's spent, there's going to be a much, i'm inside the room. yeah. you know, did you're buying in the m r s and then other car. so, you know, so leveraging those relationships, you know, and again, trying to make, you know, a, i think it's less about energy and more. uh, i'm trying to find some offerings here to the situation is, is role. and of course, you know, there's, there's an energy piece to it as well. you know, given that the assumptions are there where mine or are they getting is really kind of warranty or the security uh, you know, and then stability side. um, so yeah, i mean, you know, from, from, you know,

from the american standpoint of sending emails that are, you know, kind of makes sense and, you know, given the, you know, energy is pretty, you know, tied into this whole situation in the region. you know, having some of that expertise does all be rejected, and i'll stop you that more from the head of global markets in research at energy intelligence. after this break, the soon as 2016 numerous monuments to soviet soldiers and poland, ukraine, and the baltic states have been destroyed or vandalized fish their stuff, but it must be the most or even some others could. i ask if i'm in the field that's the most on whether it's, it's special or just bring in the police government denies the rule of soviet sonya is in the victory of a naziism. and is it raising historical memories of world war 2 is the 450. so when you order, although it did seem the non c regimes, the trustees would remain, thinks in people's consciousness forever. but as long as rustic phobia is

profitable and brings david denise, you're willing to have a to rewrite the pos yes. let's see. it used on sync up the top of that. i need to see things because it looks like so. i need to wait 30 at the l. look forward to talking to you all that technology should work for people. a robot must obey the orders given by human beings accept. we're such orders at conflict with the 1st law. show your identification. we should be very careful about our personal intelligence at the point, obviously is to create

a truck rather than to the various jobs. i mean with artificial intelligence we have summoning the theme and the robot most protect this phone. existence was on the welcome back to going underground. i'm still here with the global markets and research and energy intelligence, ivy ridge, andrew and ivy. we were talking about the conflicts getting bigger in that might say effect energy prices, which it hasn't sofa. does that mean that given the, in the lebanese context, we've heard the iran say, well, it's up to 11 and what it wants to do. the control of energy markets in a sense,

across the well, depends on what happens in south lebanon. yeah, you know, we, we, we do really, we're talking about just briefly before i think that is, you know, sort of your, you're a spar to a, you know, potentially bigger conflict. right. and i think obviously from, you know, us or israel or, you know, allied side, they don't want that. but it doesn't really seem like the, you know, the, it has the line, you know, kind of the, the, you know, indirectly through iran side really was that either we've been watching this closely for, you know, for, you know, nearly 2 months now doesn't really seem like there's any sort of, you know, even at, in a mobilization to a bigger with right now the, by the ministration certainly hasn't been happy about previous opec plus meetings and to the blinking being sent to beg, a saudi arabia to increase production and so on. we had expected the oh big plus meeting and this week, what do you think behind the postponing of the such an important subject critical

opec plus a meeting. and it will be in around the time of cop $28.00 as well here in dubai. yeah, interesting timing. the meeting are getting delayed to the start date of, of, of cop 28. so that's the, obviously we're going to be interested in classroom messages by the time be strongly cutting production is good for the environment as well. and, but it also has issues, you know, as a not effect on prices and inflation and, you know, an investment in that new energy to right. so. so again, it does have both ways. um, you know, the i realtor plus look, i think the they have no sort of 2 key, you know, messy issues to work through. the 1st is the, you know, salary. right? yeah, it's kind of taking the burden of, of, of cutting on behalf of the group, you know, disproportionately, while that has happened. i know you had one, you know, some, you know, some pretty unreliable lies from russia, which is the,

you know, the, the other big coffee that matters. you had to be wrap up in production from there on. uh and you know, it's kind of a slow, steady ramp up from the, you know, problem where do you, when you're analyzing this, where do you get the figures from? because as you imply there, there's a gray market now for oil ever since the south sanctioning of european governments in the sanctioning in the united states. have you ever seen a statistics in such a malays as the they all right now when it comes to oil production, oil, transportation, oil services, generally given. no one seems to know who's selling, who's buying and what price they're buying and selling a yes. i mean we are, you know, we're one individual, secondary source packet and the energy intelligence. you know, we and we've got it in over a 100 bucks or boots on the ground. we've talked to trainer a super as other folks who are in the oil industry, i know from india and. and so we try to piece together

a lot of the story ourselves and get our own full way. really secret meetings by the dockside because they kind of say no, we built our services. right. and we got those on the dock side or we can pick up the phone and call because, you know, i'm just, just so we can do the phone and call you guys most, you know, it was, i mean, the 1st floor you know, for these sections and price gaps and things like that, who are, who are contact so. so, so it's probably easier to do uh, you know, a great job, you know, handing up as much information as they get rid of it. as you mentioned, there is a gray market. there is some of you know, basically in, in the information, but we try to piece it together as much as we can. we, you know, we produce monthly thoughts on reserves, res production, exports. you know, i mean, you know, what we see is, you know, kind of free market like market ever volumes. so we try to account for all of that into our intelligence right into our, you know, kind of our, our bigger picture look at what's going on with markets in terms of, of supply demand prizes and whatnot. and this is actually nbc, this into a back itself is,

is one of the invoice that they use when they go into big decisions like this. and, you know, i think from what they're seeing, it's kind of in line with what we're seeing is that there's a lot of, you know, kind of, you know, choppy, you compliance. there's a lot of, you know, you know, countries that are, you know, wrapping up production, you know, there's some cheating here and there. and that's, you know, part of the deal. so there's going to have to be some official production cuts, an ounce of an x over the x plus me thing, given this environment, i would say no, no, no, no, officially we have official pricing because now i think we're gonna have to one see a better focus on compliance, you know, kind of reading and some of those producers that have, you know, that have been, you know, kind of leading volumes as how you realistic in a way volumes back into the market. and i think the 2nd piece is, was, was the dimension was, was, you know, so it was more or less countries. i'm not pushing back on their production quarters . they're saying is too low. it needs to be higher. that's another piece. you know

. yeah. these are smaller are members to, it's not the big ones. that's another thing that needs to be addressed at this meeting. but, you know, there's really, really isn't our desire radio taking the, you know, the, the burden of this production costs. i mean, you're going to rain, is somebody's producers that are, you know, kind of doing their own thing, you know, otherwise, you know, sort of threatening that, you know, that they're running on one of their thoughts and then everybody loses with lower prices as a result. because saudi arabia, very vocal about calling for an alms about go against israel, and a goes the amount of military weaponry and so on, in the east mediterranean using vital energy resources must have some kind of impact, doesn't it? to the largest ahmad isn't history. one of them biting incentives, mediterranean all these wall plains, aircraft, carriers, military equipments, and the end to the south china sea. isn't that affecting energy prices to so i think the answer to russian is not really uh, basically not at all. i think the obviously, you know, there is this, you know,

there is this big, you know, having to push back against, you know, the, the beauty is really response and the situation and drives a lot of the same time. i think there's a lot of really bad showing going on within the, you know, the idea of world, but also, you know, kind of, you know, maybe through the other sources you know, between the west and countries like so the radio in particular on how is sort of perhaps a situation from getting worse and then finding all problems to, you know, to, to, to maybe, you know, you know, the, it's unlikely that you know, some permanency as far as when that happens to be time soon, but they never least we have some, you know some, some, some temporary ones that are getting shipped now to, you know, to, to sort out hostages and things like that. so, i do. yes, you're sure, you know, there's a, there's a question. you know, army is really all of these are bad, but more, you know, more broadly. i think the concerns about continuing the situation and not letting

you get, you know, to the original conflict. i think many people might have been surprised by how quickly the off to have a bite and said what stream would and, and stuff. and of course, it was destroyed allegedly, by the bite and immunization, we saw l. n g terminal start popping up in western europe so quickly. we know hundreds of thousands of people poor people die in western europe. uh, in terms of excess debts. do you think of the united states we filling in that gap on the l. n. g to stabilize prices of this winter for west and you are the united states has been the number one because the gas for, for, for missing gas line was for, for your you know, over the last couple of years i should be known back even predating the the rest of the rangers in europe out of gas rises back in 2021. so this isn't the bracket of gas right? from texas right? yeah. oh and from violation you're going to go up to and he talks about yeah,

you know, for, for the most part of the shell gas. yes. the fractional gas, but i know this is, this is what your needs. and then despite, you know, some of the kind of gas being filled from the us and, you know, maybe some color and other sources. you know, you're more broadly, but certainly in particular, and countries like germany continues to the industrialized idea. you know, they have massive issues in, on key industries like i'm a goals, agriculture, fertilizers and in other areas. because even when you know somebody, even gas gas being feel, they are sort of energy or they're finding energy that's too expensive to skate, that scale, you know what the shouts government says. they say they're doing fine, the coalition and of itself. the sanctions a was a great, great policy of to the ukraine conflict. now winding down, i'll give you the yeah. the shows government the government these days. so i just want to have a german people. uh, you know, make

a decision on that one ends and the so you, so you're saying that things are going to be really tough and on western europe or given the decisions they'd be making unless they change the sanctions policy and then yeah, these are the, the top, i mean, you know, as always, you know, especially in winter seasons that kind of depends on how cool the winter is. you know, you're, they know kind of got off with a relatively easy winter last year. but that's, you know, every year it'd be different this or bad, you know, i mean, you know, i mean, you know, physical or, you know, kind of extreme, whether it's nice. i know that i can kind of change things so, so you know, is, is still kind of an uncertain place. yes. they have basically full gas reserves right out of your yes, inventories. but you know, but you know how that works. you know, in a couple months, you know, in march, april, you know, movie a key to one to watch. so if it's a very severe winter, can your organization estimate how much?

uh, the sanctions are having tons of effects. how many people are being killed effectively in western europe by the sanctions? if it has a severe winter top number to come by or europe has a cold winter this winter. i think you'll be ok because they do have kind of inventories that are or in the hot even, you know, kind of normal winter low. so i think this winter will be okay. i think the, the question then becomes, is the about the drawn out of the mentors again, you know, into the spring months. you know what, what part is that, how for, for them next year again, go have to go back and buy expensive gas, expensive gm for us, you know, or, you know, kind of keep those manufacturing and other sectors needed. you know, not long demand to come back too much to, to be able to maintain, you know, supply. and just finally, the expansion of a v, electrical vehicles, we expect a massive mining expansion of minerals that help help but to empower the batteries

of all these electrical vehicles in the global south in africa and latin america. and so to see these are happening in the, on the left vocational role, letting y you're investing, uh, you know, a little bit of a, uh, an adjustment process. and the adoptions are for, for a these reviews you're going to try, who's doing better than expected europe is doing a bias as well as expected in terms of the adoption. but the biggest part in the world of us is going much lower than the many seconds as it was the moving parts of the electric world. and because of that, a lot of no prices for some of these metals and minerals and in other materials that you mentioned have come down quite a bit. lithium, rough, i, you know, cobalt and other things you know. and do this kind of is realignment going on with the demand and supply. so i guess you will need a lot more money and you're gonna need a lot more extraction processing, you know, for batteries and other inputs into reviews for the next, you know,

decent decade and beyond. as these prices come down, that has an impact on either time use of why things be pushed out delay. but it also has an effect on maybe, you know, spring demand a little bit because the price or lower cars are cheaper than they were in or year or 2 years ago. so let's do this. cat and mouse play out over the next several years. i mean, you know, they were finding generally that, you know, easy adoption curves are going about as well as we expected, but uh, no overall, but that's lower than many a, you know, we're kind of addressing the line you for. but once you've got to get into mass adoption and you know, that gets harder just because of all the heavy, the consumer problems. there's other things that you have to work through. so, so that's kind of where we are with, with, with the these will be keeping to watch in the next couple years savvy ridge 100. thank you. thanks for out of me. and that's over the show will be back on monday to

talk through the u. s. government for the chief economist of the department of agriculture, joseph global, about why hundreds of millions are still facing of food. cries is in a world full of food until then keep in touch 5 or less social media. if it's not a sense within your country and i do i channel going underground tv, hon, they'll come to us new and old episodes of going underground. see you monday, the society of the a credit and concept sense of the it was a fine you that a rush serious of lucian's on the, on the west and ukrainian slides, illusions about their own strength illusions about strength for the russian opponents. basically the, you know, the, there's a rush or a new crime was a door that just had to be kicked in and the whole structure would come, come sometime in the looseness. i've been shocked with the,

the israel, her mouth presented it the 2nd day. kind of send you the westbank celebrate the release of the 29 detainees from this rated custody we had from one who was suffering in prison. the saddest themes solved with us and humiliated us. the trouble of pride is tight and though dignity is raised, for god's sake, our heads will remain high, civil payments. we come off pretty pissed. 20 pages with more expect it to return to israel and the coming days with fighting a pool of some kind of things tried to return to that home in the north. oh need to come on. that is where the fire with death were pulled.