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the time action design fee and welcome back to going underground, broadcasting all around the world from 1228, host the u, a e, which at the un security council has forced the issue of a ceasefire and it's the u. k. u, as you nation back to alleged guys a genocide, while thousands have been killed in gaza near jerusalem. hundreds of thousands may be killed through excess debts in europe. this winter energy is i'll give you the keys and guys i'd call $28.00 and the o big plus meeting with gc countries plus russia. iran, venezuela, and others have so far refused nathan nathan cole's to pump more oil. joining me now from one of the world's biggest competent mississippi's new york city is abby ridge and during the head of global markets and research as energy intelligence, an adjunct research scholar at columbia university center on global energy policy,

the abby thank so much for coming back on so we have north stream, we've had the saudi arabia refusing to bomb lower all along with their big plus members. and presumably, markets already realize that the, the numbers killed in the winter in western europe will be, will be even more than in, well, it will be more, but it won't be even more that in the, in gaza. yeah. first thanks for having me. i'm certainly a lot going on be in the role of energy, you know, between oil and gas markets and, and of course, the politics kind of stuck in between all of it. you know, we're also, you know, kind of going through this rollercoaster, you know, within the year where we've had a pretty summer in a much temperature wise. but in terms of demand and consumption and the things are going to cooling off as we typically do at this time of the year. and but, you know, but a lot of uncertainty, you know, looking to the end of the year and they have to 2024 for sure. but yet there's no

increase in oil prices. yeah, i mean, you know, i mean, november a seasonally is, is always, you know, it has to be really ne, not always the worst month for oil prices. so in some service or not, depending on who you are, of course, who you are. yeah, i do the best, right? yeah, yeah, absolutely. the price. yes. it is always a uh, you know, a tough month to get the price to go up. it's typically a month where the price goes down and there's always some drama, you know, with, in other ways. but usually some drama has been a little bit plus heading into thanksgiving weekend. so there's that as well. but all those countries that didn't want to cease fact, any confident that there wasn't going to be a wider conflagration, that would effect oil prices. i mean, they were confidently saying, we don't want to cease fire. all these children are dying, it's fine, they're all being killed. in terms of its effects, boomer, i'm impact on the economies of western europe and the united states. yeah,

i mean the, the, the, the conflict of the situation is, is obviously, uh, you know, pretty, pretty dire and tragic in many ways. um, you know, since the early days, you know, after october 7th, what we're looking for is, is let me just mention which is, you know, the possibility of a, an expansion of the, of the cost like, you know, pulling in other countries. boeing in, you know, has a lot of dental or the item pulling into iran in particular directly to the conflict with israel, the, but also we don't have religious on the other in the countries in the, in the regions. i know that never happened right at it, you know, as every week went by, there was increasingly clear that you know, you're wrong. wiley may have been indirectly involved in sparking the conflict and indirectly did not want to get involved. and even with the others, you know that, that, that never really, you know, kind of, um, uh, gotten worse. um and even, you know, even us and other, you know,

heavy is really allies were pretty keen on keeping iran in particular out of it. and so for us applies to why we haven't really seen much of a disruption. you know, there was obviously that kind of the initial concern and worry and spicing oil prices, the quickly evaporated. and then we're kind of back down to, you know, to different on the members, even though it was a big family. obviously the conflict began decades ago in, in the 1940s. but it was a tell you that uh iran which um denied any involvement in october 7 said uh they, they could be a big in. but i mean, i saw a senior israeli officials were quoted as saying israel once the usa diplomatically worked the pressure as well. to a drawer, it's a troops from the outside when unit on the, on the outskirts of the golden lights. clearly the united states. i don't know what connections they have with as well. but clearly iran was the big energy factor here as the energy factor. uh, again, with you as you see on every side, you know,

kind of wanted to stay out of it and not really get involved in any kind of escalating the crisis. and that, you know, and that should be around the oil prices that they kind of come to market down even just kind of from a, you know, from the standpoint of equity markets and other markets over a little bit, you know, an easy but the counselor in the beginning, but everything just to calm down and they obviously saw, you know, sort of desolated in any way, but it has not, you know, kind of become a broader regional issue which is what we were looking for to see there was actually going to be the supply impact, but if it hasn't had an impact directly on the, on the groves of the brand and 9 mix it over the dead bodies of these thousands of children by the incentives, energy, security, advisor, aimless hochstein to israel. while this was happening, i mean, i mean one way i go to as why, um, uh, the united states as one hi, royal braces because it isn't that exponent. but in another way, well,

it was the doing there. and why with the is there any papers talking about tons of in gas in gaza while we were watching the pictures of all of these murder children? yeah, i mean look, i mean, i think she, you know, i think there are those oil and gas, you know, kind of issues or play from the, you know, from the us standpoint, the focus, you know, has been on to keep things. one is not letting the situation escalate and finding, you know, sort of offer as findings and you know, the middle ground where hostages and other things to be giving you the shaded us that, you mean, you know, ask, i obviously is escalate it because every day you monitors more children were being killed, you mean not escalated geographically. it was contained within the 2000000 people living in the message, gaza strip. right? and then also try to find a way to come up with, you know, with, with, with some ways to address the civilian casualties. this relation address austin, situation. so it's a bond somewhere around from,

from all sides. and i think the 2nd point is directly the energy, right. i mean, i think this, this administration is, is very, is hypersensitive about energy prices because of a general and then the presidential election. you mean? yeah, exactly. you know, i'm, you know, it's, it's holiday season and a lot of folks are for our and get this done and 4 units out of the year. so there's that. and then of course, looking at the grade $24.00, right. we don't want, you know, we don't want us to turn into a big, you know, brought original issue and then you have a $100.00 tend to be like every dollar oil prices like you had last year. you know, when the rest of your big conflict 1st broke down so. so definitely want to avoid that. that was interesting is when the little side, you know, the supply destruction on the natural gas side, as you did right. the is 0 to down to tomorrow, feel that i had a, you know, how does that do egypt and then i know other areas under, that was another thing that's kind of been, you know, approximately reversed and, and in recent weeks. and that was also part of the, you know, part of the, the, the discussion, you know, part of the, the focus your mind just where this ellen g comes from

a process through israel and they shut it down after october, 7th to egypt. or the is an officer of the deal uh, also the off of israel. uh, so when i get it in israel, some of it actually goes into egypt, which gives we export it out and we just don't wanna guess in june domestically yet and solve it gives we export it out then. so that was shut down for a couple of weeks and then you know, is now back on. so that was also part of it. why, why does egypt be the n, n g off of the it goes to palestine or israel, while the occupied territories kind of headed elsewhere. why is it collaborating so closely with a government video on paper? and they say they disagree with the edge cause of genocide about yeah, why don't they can't really get anywhere else to. yeah, this is a product that was kind of, you know, code developed and co commercialized in an easy, it was an outlet for the gasket and develop, you know, huge it was,

it was kind of an outlet for, for getting that a gas, you know, a home you know, through elegy, exports due to europe and other sources are. so you know, that, that, you know, it was kind of a commercial business decision that they came out of for many years. uh, and you know, and, and run. and we'll kinda see what was your point. i know obviously there's this kind of this big push back or i guess the, you know, kind of the civilian situation and you've got a, we'll see what the future of eligibility. like. yeah, it seems strange to me talking about uh, oil revenues, future revenues which is reported and is rarely bare press from energy resources given there. are people probably dying 10 i children dying to night because of the cold in gods who god hate them, their homes. what exactly is the extent of energy reserves in this area where people kind of hate themselves tonight? i mean, uh,

is it uh which one even hundreds of millions of dollars with billions of dollars worth of gas from gaza. i mean, you know, to reserve your reserve standpoint, there are millions of dollars of, uh, gas there. i think the likelihood of it any time soon getting commercialized right here. and you kind of have to go through the process of bringing in an operator as would be interested in developing these resources, you know, figuring out, you know, the, the partnerships, the revenue sharing with the new local government, things like that. all of that. and you know, seems like, you know, a very, very distant, you know, type of potential situation. i mean, vps rece rough or how to so reports about the fees, the lease on the expiration. right. so i understand, yeah. so they run out. i mean, that's the thing, right? the, the producer is the operator is you don't need to cause the political stability they need to, you know, see a security situation that's stable, they're not, you know,

obviously now if things are, you know, quite a messy but you know, they're not good. they're not likely to kind of do you live for them lies. why was this guy being sent to them a most hochstein? i mean, he worked in texas gas my markets, you'd expect proper diplomats to be visiting a israel to discuss the ledge of genocide, not oil people, the main um energy advisor to the by the ministration being sent to mid, slowly. uh, all that kinda thing. well, what was the last 4 of them as well as yours? the name is the diplomat. the know has gotten quite a few deep relationships in the region. he's been in the region and worked there many times to this ministration over the last, you know, couple of years, you know, and, and even kind of creating this administration. you know, he's been there and he's got, you know, kind of a relationship, you know, pretty adviser at all, but he's spent, there's going to be a much i'm inside the room. yeah. you know,

did you're buying in the amaris and then other car so, you know, so leveraging those relationships, you know, and again, trying to make, you know, a, i think it's less about energy and more, uh, trying to find some offer on the 0 to the situation is this role and of course, you know, there's, there's an energy piece to it as well. you know, given that the assumptions are going to buy mine or are they getting is really kind of warranty of the security uh, you know, and then stability side. um, so yeah, i mean, you know, from, from, you know, from an american standpoint of sending emails that are, you know, kind of makes sense and, you know, given the, you know, energy is pretty, you know, tied into this whole situation in the region. you know, having some of that expertise does all be rejected, and i'll stop you that more from the head of global markets in research at energy intelligence. after this break, the since 2016 numerous monuments to soviet soldiers and poland, ukraine,

and the baltic states have been destroyed or vandalized fish their stuff, but it must be the most or even some others could. i ask if i really so that's the most on whether it's it's to buy. so i'm, we're just bringing that to police government denies the rule of soviet sonya is in the victory of a naziism and is it raising historical memories of world war 2? is the 40 piece from your starter? although it did seem a non c regimes, the trustees would remain thinks in people's consciousness forever. but as long as rustic phobia is profitable and brings david dentist, you are willing to have a to rewrite the pos. yes. it is done, take up the provider just leaving a message. i need to talk so i need to wait 30 at the the welcome back to going underground. i'm

still here with the global markets and research and energy intelligence, ivy ridge, andrew and ivy. we were talking about the conflicts getting bigger in that might say effect energy prices, which it hasn't sofa. does that mean that given the, in the lebanese context, we've heard the iran say, well, it's up to 11 and what it wants to do. the control of energy markets in a sense, across the world depends on what happens in south lebanon. yeah, you know, we, would, you really were talking about this briefly before i think that is, you know, sort of your, your a spar to a, you know, potentially bigger consulate. right. and i think obviously from, you know, us or israel or you know, allied side, they don't want that. but it doesn't really seem like the, you know, the, it has the line, you know, kind of the, the, you know, indirectly the river onside really wants that either. we've been watching this closely for, you know, for, you know,

nearly 2 months now doesn't really seem like there's any sort of, you know, internet in a mobilization to a bigger with right now they're buying them. ministration certainly hasn't been happy about previous opec plus meetings and to the bank and being sent to beg as savvy or a be to increase production and so on. we had expected the oh big plus meeting and this week, what do you think behind the postponing of the such an important subject critical opec plus a meeting. and it will be in around the time of cop 28th as well here. and do by yeah, just designing the reading or getting delayed to the start date of, of a call 28. so that's the, obviously we're going to be interested in classroom messages by the time, be strongly cutting production is good for the environment. well and, but also have issues, you know, as an alternative fact on prizes and inflation. and, you know, in an investment in that new energy to right. so, so again,

it does have both ways. the plus look at it be, they have, there's, are 2 key, you know, messy issues to work through. the 1st is the, you know, salary, right? yeah, it's kind of taking the burden of, of, of cutting on behalf of the group, you know, disproportionately, while that has happened. i know you've had one, you know, some, you know, some pretty unreliable allies from russia, which is the, you know, the, the other big coffee that matters. you haven't been wrap up in production from the wrong. uh and you know, it's kind of a slow, steady ramp up from the young lady when you're analyzing will this way, do you get the figures from because as you imply there, there's a gray market now for royal ever since the south sanctioning of european governments in the sanctioning in the united states. have you ever seen the statistics in such a malays as the they? all right now when it comes to oil production, oil, transportation, oil services,

generally given. no one seems to know who's selling, who's buying and what price they're buying. and selling a yeah, so i mean, we are, you know, we're one individual, secondary source of the packet and the energy intelligence. you know, we and we've got, you know, over a 100 bucks or boots on the ground. we've talked to the reader a shipper as other folks who are in the oil industry in or from india and. and so we try to piece together a lot of the story ourselves and get our own full way. lean secret meetings by the dark side us because they kind of said no, we built our services right here. we got those on the dock side or we can pick up the phone and call because, you know, obviously we can do the phone and call you guys most, you know, it was, i mean, the 1st floor you know, for these sections and price gaps and things like that, who are, who are contact so. so, so it's probably easier to do uh, you know, a great job, you know, handing up as much information as they get rid of it. as you mentioned, there is a gray market. there is some of you know, basically in, in the information, but we try to piece it together as much as we can. we, you know,

we produce monthly stops on reserves, res production, exports, you know, as being, you know, what we see is, you know, kind of free market like market ever volumes. so we try to account for all of that into our intelligence right into our, you know, kind of our, our bigger picture look at what's going on with markets in terms of, of supply demand prices and whatnot. and this is actually nbc, this into a back itself is, is one of the invoice that they use when they go into big decisions like this. and, you know, the, from what they're seeing, it's kind of in line with all we're seeing is that there's a lot of, you know, kind of, you know, choppy, you compliance. there's a lot of, you know, you know, countries that are, you know, wrapping up production. you know, there's some cheating here and there, and that's, you know, part of the develop. so there's going to have to be some official production cuts in out. so the next so big plus me thing, given this environment. i would say our in our as reduces the no, officially we have additional production costs. now i think we're gonna have to one see

a better focus on compliance. and we're going to really use some of those producers that have, you know, that have been, you know, kind of leading volumes. i just saw your realistic and way volumes back into the market. and i think the 2nd pieces was, which was the dimension was, was, you know, so it was more or less countries. i'm not pushing back on their production quarters . they're saying is too low. it needs to be higher. that's another piece. you know . yeah. these are smaller are members to, it's not the big ones. that's another thing that needs to be addressed at this meeting. but, you know, there's really, really isn't honest. i really, i taking the, you know, the burden of this production costs. i mean, you're kind of rain, is somebody's producers that are, you know, kind of doing their own thing, you know, otherwise, you know, sort of threatening that, you know, that they're going to, i'm one of their thoughts and that everybody loses with lower prices as a result because saudi arabia, very vocal about calling for an arms and by go against israel. and of course, the amount of military weaponry and so on,

in the east mediterranean using vital energy resources must have some kind of impact, doesn't it? to the largest ahmad isn't history. one of them vitamin incentives mediterranean, all these wall plains, aircraft, carriers, military equipments, and the end to the south china sea. isn't that affecting energy prices to so i think the answer to russian is not really uh, issue, not at all. i think the obviously, you know, there is this, you know, there is this big, you know, having to push back against, you know, the visa's really response and the situation advisor. but at the same time, i think there's a lot of the batch showing going on within the, you know, the idea of world. but also, you know, kind of, you know, maybe through the other sources you know, between, you know, the west and countries like on the radio in particular on how sort of, perhaps a situation from getting worse. and then finding all problems to you know, to, to,

to maybe, you know, any get, you know, the, it's unlikely that you know, some permanency as far as when that happens to be time soon. but, you know, police, we have some, you know, some, some, some temporary ones that are getting shipped now to, you know, to, to sort out hostages and things like that. so i do, yes, you're sure, you know, there's a, there's a question, you know, army is really, all of these are bad, but more, you know, more broadly, i think the concerns of continuing this is raising and unloading. you get, you know, to the original conflict. i think many people might have been surprised by how quickly the off to bite and said no and stream would and, and stop. and of course, it was destroyed allegedly, by the bite and immunization, we saw l. n g terminal start popping up in western europe. so quickly, we know hundreds of thousands of people, poor people die in western europe. uh, in terms of excess debts. do you think of united states we filling in that gap on the l. n. g to stabilize prices of this winter for west in your the united states

has been the number one because the gas for, for, for missing gas line was for, for your you know, over the last couple of years i should be known back even predating be the rest of the rangers in europe out of gas rises back in 2021. so it was the bracket of gas right from texas. right. yeah. oh and from violation. yeah. come up to and he talks about yeah, you know, for, for the most part of the shell gas. yeah. for a fee to, for actual gas. but you know, this is, this is what your needs. and then despite, you know, some of the kind of gas being thrilled from the us and, you know, maybe some color and other sources. you know, you're more broadly but certainly in particular and countries in germany, but continues to the industrialize right there. you know, they have massive issues in, on key industries like i'm a goals, agriculture, fertilizers and in other areas. because even when you know, somebody, even gas gas being feel,

they are sort of energy or they're finding energy that's too expensive. just take that scale, you know what the shouts government says they say they're doing fine, the coalition and of itself. the sanctions a was a great great policy of to the ukraine conflict. now winding down, i'll give you the yeah. the shows government the government these days. so i was just like the german people uh, you know, make a decision on that one ends and the so you, so you're saying that things are going to be really tough and one west and you're given the decisions that'd be making unless they change the sanctions policy and then yeah, these are the the top i mean, you know, as always, you know, especially in the winter seasons. it kinda depends on how cool the winter is. you know, you're, they know kind of got off with a relatively easy winter last year. but that's, you know, every year it'd be different this or bad, you know, i mean, you know, i mean, you know, festivals are, you know, kind of extreme,

whether it's nice. i know that i can kind of change things so, so you know, is, is still kind of an uncertain place. yes. they have basically full gas reserves right out of your yes, inventories. but you know, but you know how that works. you know, in a couple months, you know, in march, april, you know, movie a key to one to watch. so if it's a very severe winter, can your organization estimate how much? uh, the sanctions are having tons of effects. how many people are being killed effectively in western europe by the sanctions? if it has a severe winter top number to come by and europe has a cold winter this winter. i think you'll be ok because they do have kind of inventories that are over and beyond. even, you know, kind of normal winter low. so i think this winter will be okay. i think the, the question then becomes, is the best to draw it out of the inventories again, you know, into the spring months. you know what, what impact does that have for,

for them next year. again, you all have to go back and buy expensive gas, expensive energy imports. you know, or you're going to keep those manufacturing and other sectors needed. you know, not long demand to come back too much to, to be able to maintain, you know, supply and just the finally, the expansion of a v, electrical vehicles. we expect a massive mining expansion of minerals that help help put in power. the batteries of all these electrical vehicles in the global south in africa and latin america. so i see these are happening in the, on the left vocational role, letting one you're seeing uh, you know, a little bit of a, uh, an adjustment process. and the adoptions are for, for the these reviews you're going to try, who's doing better than expected europe is doing a bias as well as expected in terms of the adoption. but the biggest part in the world of us is going much lower than the many seconds. so there's

a lot of moving parts in the electric world. and because of that, a lot of prices for some of these metals and minerals and in other materials that you mentioned have come down quite a bit lithium graphite, you know, cobalt and other things. you know. and do this kind of is realignment going on with the demand and supply side. i guess you will need a lot more money and you're going to need a lot more extraction processing, you know, for batteries and other inputs into use for the next, you know, decent decade and beyond. as these prices come down, that has an impact on either time use of why things be pushed out delay. but it also has an effect on maybe, you know, spring demand a little bit because the price or lower cars are cheaper than they were in or year 2 years ago. it's really kind of the discount and miles play out over the next several years. i mean, you know, they were finding generally that, you know, easy adoption curves are going about as well as we expected. but uh, you know, overall, but that's lower than many the, you know,

we've kind of address on the line you for. but once you've got to get into mass adoption and you know, that gets harder just because of all the kind of the, the, the consumer problems. there's other things that you have to work through. so, so that's kind of where we are with, with, with the ease we'll be keeping to watch in the next couple years savvy ridge engine . thank you. thanks for out of me. and that's over the show will be back on monday to talk through the u. s. government for the chief economist of the department of agriculture, joseph global, about why hundreds of millions are still facing a food crisis in the world full of food until then keep in touch 5 or less social media. if it's not a sense within your country and i do i channel going underground tv, hon, they'll come to us new and old episodes of going underground. see you monday

the is already those lines. this can be started by line. these can be started by truly important. some will never be of a station. so that transparency is extraordinary. john mystic patrice then just succeeded in finding documents that existed in making them available to the world public. i mean, what could be more moving back by publishing information and sharing information with the public. he was exercising the rights for a speech he did so in the public interest. wants to so long realized pen smith and golf and, and honestly, to relate continuously. i know why advice may assume that no

one who is the guy that illegal anymore wisely bought. adjustments for to be on box weighing a 175 used to go through. do you have sense? it's all we going to lift that stay the that's the 1st group of colors sitting in prison is released. why israel arrive in the west bank on friday, 42 more. are expected to see freedom in the coming hours as part of the full day true steel who was suffering in prison the saddest themselves with us and humiliated us battelle pride is tight and though with dignities raised for god's sake, our heads will remain high as part of the swap from us release is 20 people hostages with a young and old now were united with families. we understand 14 more are expected