the, the time action or sensory, and welcome back to going underground, broadcasting all around the world from comp 28 host the u. e, which at the un security council has force the issue of a ceasefire. and it's the u. k. u, as a new nation backed alleged guys a genocide, while thousands have been killed in gaza near jerusalem. hundreds of thousands may be killed through excess debts in europe. this winter energy is i'll give you the key then guys i'd call 28 and the o big plus meeting with gc countries plus russia. iran, venezuela, and others have so far, refused nato, a nation close to pump more oil. joining me now from one of the world's biggest competent mississippi's new york city is abby ridge and during the head of global

markets and research as energy intelligence, and how drunk research scholar at columbia university center on global energy policy. i mean, thanks so much for coming back on. so we have north stream, we've had the saudi arabia refusing to bomb lower all along with their big plus members. and presumably, markets already realize that the, the numbers killed in the winter in western europe will be, will be even more then in will it will be more, but it won't be even more that in the, in gaza. yeah. first thanks for having me. i'm certainly a lot going on be in the role of energy introducing your oil and gas markets and, and of course, the politics kind of stuck in between all of it. you know, we're also, you know, kind of going through this roller coaster, you know, within the year where you had a pretty awesome or uh, you know, not just temperature wise, but in terms of demand and consumption,

the things are going to cooling off as they typically do with that at this time of the year and but you know, but a lot of uncertainty, you know, looking to the end of the year and a half of the range range for, for sure. but yet there's no increase in oil prices. yeah, i mean, do you know, i mean, november a seasonally is, is always, you know, it has to be really ne, not always the worst month for oil prices. so in some service or not, depending on who you are, of course who you are. yeah, i do the best, right? yeah, absolutely. a price. yes. it is always a, uh, you know, a tough month to get the price to go up. it's typically a month where the price goes down. and there's always some drama, you know, with, in other ways. but usually some drama would be a little bit plus heading into thanksgiving weekend. so there's that as well. but all those countries, but didn't want to cease back to any confident that there wasn't going to be a why the conflagration that would effect oil prices. i mean, they were confidently saying, we don't want to cease fire. all these children are dying. it's fine,

they're all being killed in terms of its effect. boomer, i'm impact on the economies of western europe and the united states. yeah, i mean love, you know, the, the, the conflict and the situation is, is obviously, uh, you know, pretty, pretty dire and tragic in many ways. um, since the early days, you know, after october 7th, oh we were looking for is, is let me just mention which is, you know, the possibility of, uh, an expansion of the uh, because like, you know, pulling in other countries. boeing in, you know, has a lot of done or us, uh, i know, playing a role in particular directly to the conflict with israel, but also to kind of relate to some of the other countries in the, in the regions. i know that never happened right. i think, you know, as every week went by, there was increasingly clear that, you know, you're on wiley may have been indirectly involved in sparking the conflict. you know, directly, you did not want to get involved. and even with the others,

you know that, that, that never really, you know, kind of, um, uh, gotten worse. um and even, you know, even be able to us and then other, you know, have these really allies were pretty keen on keeping their, on a particular out of it. so for us applies to apply, we haven't really seen much of a disruption. you know, there was obviously that kind of the initial concern and worry and spiking oil prices, the quickly evaporated. and then we're kind of back down to, you know, to different on the members. even though it was a big fan. i mean, obviously the conflict began decades ago in, in the 1940s, but it was a tell that iran which i'm denied any involvement in october 7, said the they, they could be a big in. but i mean, i sort of senior is really officials are quoted as saying israel once in the usa, to diplomatically work the pressure as well to a drawer. it's a troops from the outside when unit on the, on the outskirts of the golden lights. clearly the united states, i don't know what connections they have with as well. but clearly iran was the big

energy factor here. the energy factor uh again with you is, uh you and every side you know, kind of wanted to stay out of it and not really get involved in any kind of escalating the crisis. and that, you know, and that should be around the oil prices that they kind of come to market down even just kind of from a, you know, from the standpoint of equity markets and other markets over a little bit. you know, i'm usually about the concert in the beginning, but everything just to calm down and then they obviously saw, you know, sort of de escalated in any way, but it has not, you know, kind of become a broader regional issue which is what we were looking for to see there was actually going to be some flying back. but if it hasn't had an impact directly on the, on the groves of the brand and 9 mix it over the dead bodies of these thousands of children, biden's and his energy security, advisor, aimless hochstein to israel. while this was happening, i mean, i mean one way i go to as why, um, uh,

the united states as one higher oil prices because it isn't, it exploded, but in another way. well, it was the doing there. and why with these really papers talking about tons of in gas in gaza while we were watching the pictures of all these muddy children? yeah, i mean look, i mean, i think she, you know, i think there are those oil and gas, you know, kind of issues or play. i mean, from the, you know, from the us standpoint that i know the focus, you know, has been on to keep things. one is not letting the situation escalate and finding, you know, sort of offer as findings and, you know, some middle ground where hostages and other things to be giving you a shifted us that, you mean, you know, ask, i obviously is escalating because every day you monitors more children were being killed, you mean not escalate geographically? it was contained within the 2000000 people living in the message, gaza strip. right? and then also try to find a way to kind of come up with, you know, with, with,

with some ways to address the civilian casualties. this relation address, often situation uh, so its approximate around from, from all sides. and i think the 2nd point is directly, you know, the energy, right. i mean, i think this, this administration is, is very, is hypersensitive of our energy prices because of the general and then the presidential election. you mean? yeah, exactly. you know, it's, it's holiday season and a lot of those are for our hang of this done. and for him, you know, it's out of the year. so there's that. and then of course, looking at the drain $24.00, right. we don't want, you know, we don't want us to turn into a big, you know, brought original issue and then you have a $110.00 to the dollar oil prices like you had last year. you know, when the rest of your big conflict 1st broke down so, so now we want to avoid that. now what interesting is, when the oil side, you know, the supply construction on the natural gas side, as you did right. uh, is it gonna shut down to tomorrow feel that you know that uh you know, how does that matter? egypt and then uh, i know other areas um, no, that was the kind of been you know,

approximately reverse and recent lease. and that was also part of the, you know, part of the, the, the discussion, you know, part of the, the service, your mind just where this island g comes from a process through israel and they shut it down after october, 7th, to egypt. that's right. so, so this is as an officer deal uh off of that off of israel. uh, so when i get past it in israel, some of it actually goes into egypt, which gives we export it out. and we just don't wanna give, since you domestically yet and solve it gives we export it out then. so that would shut down for a couple of weeks and then, you know, is now back on. so that way, you know, that was, that was also part of it. why, why does egypt be dan and g, off of the coast of palestine or israel, where the occupied territory is kind of headed elsewhere. why is it collaborating so closely with a government video on paper? they say they disagree with the edge cause of genocide about yeah, why don't they can't really get it anywhere else. you. yeah, this is

a product that was kind of, you know, code developed and co commercialized in an easy, it was an outlet for the gas getting developed, you know, huge. it was, it was kind of an outlet for, for getting that a gas, you know, a home, you know, through elegy exports due to europe and other sources or. so you know that, that, you know, it was kind of a commercial business decision, the amount of, or many years, uh, and you know, and, and run and what kind of see, what was your point. you know, obviously there's, there's kind of this big push back or i guess the, you know, have you used to go in a situation and got a, we'll see what the future of the laser looks like. yeah, it seems strange to me talking about uh, oil revenues, future revenues which is reported. and is there any bare press from energy resources given there? are people probably dying 10 i children dying to night because of the cold? in god's who god hate them, their homes. what exactly is the extent of energy reserves in

this area where people gone hate themselves tonight? i mean uh is it, uh which one even hundreds of millions of dollars with billions of dollars worth of gas from gaza. i mean, you know, to reserve your reserve standpoint. there are millions of dollars of, of gas there. i think the likelihood of it, but any time soon getting commercialized, right? you know, you kind of have to go through the, the process of bringing in an operator as would be interested in developing these resources. you know, figuring out, you know, the, the partnerships, the revenue sharing with new, local government, things like that. all of that. and, you know, seems like, you know, a very, very distant, you know, type of potential situation. i mean, vps reads runtime tech, so reports about b p. 's, a lease on the expiration. right. so i understand yeah, this is a run out. i mean that's the thing, right? the, the producer is, the operator is you don't need to cause the political stability. they need to,

you know, see a security situation that stable, they're not, you know, obviously now if things are, you know, quite a messy but you know, they're not good. they're not likely to kind of july the eyes. why was this guy being sent that in a most hochstein? i mean, he worked in texas gas my markets, you'd expect proper diplomats to be visiting a israel to discuss the ledge of genocide, not oil people. the main um energy advisor to the by the administration being sent to mid, slowly uh, all attending what, what was the last 4 of them as well as you understand him is the diplomat that, you know, has gotten quite a few deep relationships in the region. he's been in the region and worked there many times and this ministration over the last, you know, couple of years, you know, and then even kind of creating this ministration. you know,

he's been there and he's got, you know, kind of a relationship, you know, realize right now, but he's spent, there's going to be a much, i'm inside the room. yeah. you know, teacher playing in the amaris and then other car. so, you know, so leveraging those relationships, you know, and again, trying to make, you know, a, i think it's less about energy and more, trying to find some offer. and here's the situation. is this role and of course, you know, there's, there's an energy piece to it as well. you know, given that to the instructions are going to find mine or are they getting is really kind of warranty of the security uh, you know, and then stability side. um, so yeah, i mean, you know, from, from, you know, from an american standpoint of sending emails that are kind of makes sense and, you know, given the, you know, energy is pretty, you know, tied into this whole situation in the region. the, some of the expertise does all tabular agenda and i'll stop you there more from the head of global markets and research at the energy intelligence. after this break, the,

the russian states never as tight as i'm sort of the most sense community best ingles, all sun set up the, in the system must be the one else holes. question about this, even though we will then in the european union, the kremlin mission, the state on the rush of funding and supports the r t spoke neck, even our video agency, roughly all of band on youtube. the, to the said, this is steven twist, which is the

the welcome back to going underground. i'm still here with the global markets and research and energy intelligence, ivy ridge, andrew and ivy. we were talking about the conflicts getting bigger in that might say effect energy prices, which it hasn't sofa does not mean that given the in the lebanese context,

we've heard the iran say, well, it's up to 11 and what it wants to do. the control of energy markets in a sense, across the well, depends on what happens in south lebanon. yeah. you know, we, we, we really talking about this briefly before. i think that is, you know, sort of your, your a spar to a, you know, potentially bigger conflict. right. and i think obviously from, you know, us or israel or, you know, allied side they don't want that. but it doesn't really seem like the, you know, the, it has bella and, you know, not the, the, you know, indirectly the river onside really wants that either. we've been watching this closely for, you know, for, you know, nearly 2 months now doesn't really seem like there's any sort of, you know, a minute, you know, mobilization to a bigger with right now the, by the ministration certainly hasn't been happy about previous opec plus meetings and to the blinking being sent to beg, a saudi arabia to increase production and so on. we had expected the oh,

big plus meeting. and this week, what do you think behind the postponing of a such an important subject critical opec plus a meeting. and it will be in around the time of cop 28th as well here in dubai. yeah, interesting timing. the meeting are getting delayed to the start date of, of, of car 28. so that's the, obviously we're going to be interested in class or messages, but the, this i'd be strongly cutting production is good for the environment as well. and, but also have issues, you know, as an artifact on prizes and inflation. and, you know, in an investment in that new energy to right. so, so again, it does have both ways. the plus look, i think the, they have, there's are 2 key, you know, messy issues to work through. the 1st is the, you know, salary, right? yeah, it's kind of taking the burden of, of, of cutting on behalf of the group,

you know, disproportionately, while that has happened. i know you had one, you know, some, you know, some pretty unreliable lies from russia, which is the, you know, the, the other big country that matters. do you have a big wrap up in production from the wrong? uh and you know, it's kind of a slow, steady ramp up from the, you know, from where do you when you're analyzing this, where do you get the figures from? because as you imply there, there's a gray market now for royal ever since the south sanctioning of european governments in the sanctioning in the united states. have you ever seen a statistics in such a malays as we may right now when it comes to oil production, oil, transportation, oil services, generally given? no one seems to know who's telling who's buying and what price they're buying and selling a. yeah, so i mean, we are, you know, we're one individual, secondary source of the packet and the energy intelligence. you know, we, we, we've got, you know, over a 100 bucks or boots on the ground. we've talked to trader

a shipper as other folks who are in the oil industry in or from and, and, and so we try to piece together a lot of the story ourselves and get our own full way. lean secret meetings by the dockside as, cuz they kinda said, uh, you know, we built our services right here. we got those on the call with them. so, you know, i'm just, just so we can do the phone and call you guys most, you know, who are assigned to the 1st floor, you know, for these sections and price guides and things like that, who are, who are contact so. so it was a while easy to do a, you know, a great job, you know, handing up as much information as they get rid of it. as you mentioned, there is a great markets. there is some of, you know, basically and in the information, but we try to piece it together as much as we can. we, you know, we produce monthly stops on read hundreds, production exports, you know, as we, you know, what we see is, you know, kind of free market like market type of volumes. so we try to account for all of that into our intelligence right into our, you know, kind of our,

our bigger picture look at what's going on with markets in terms of, of supply demand prizes and whatnot. and this is actually and review this into a back itself it's, it's a lot of the invoice that they use when they go into big decisions like this. and, you know, i think there's eating, it's kind of in line with all we're seeing is that there's a lot of, you know, kind of, you know, choppy compliance. there's a lot of, you know, you know, countries that are, you know, write down production. you know, there's some cheating here and there, and that's, you know, hard to do. so there's going to have to be some official production costs and now so the next, so banks plus the meeting, given this environment a, i would say irish produces the no official. i mean we have additional production costs. now i think we're gonna have to one see a better focus on compliance, you know, kind of reading some of those producers that have, you know, they've been using volumes. i saw your regular state and way volumes back into the market. and i think the 2nd piece is, was, which was the dimension was, was,

you know, so it was more open plus countries not pushing back on their production quotas. they're saying is too low. it needs to be higher. that's another piece. you know. yeah. these are smaller are members to, it's not the big ones. that's another thing that needs to be addressed at this meeting. but, you know, there's really, really isn't uh, as i really, i taking the, you know, the, the wording of this production costs. i mean, they're kind of rain, is somebody's producers that are, you know, kind of doing their own thing. no. otherwise, you know, sort of threatening that. you know that there are one or um, one of their thoughts on that. everybody loses lower prices as a result. because saudi arabia, very vocal about calling for an arms and by go against israel and a goes the amount of military weaponry and so on, in the east mediterranean using vital energy resources must have some kind of impact, doesn't it, to the law. just ahmad isn't history. one of them vitamin is sent to re submitted, draining all these wall plains, aircraft carriers, military equipment, sent them to the south china sea. isn't that affecting energy prices to so i think

the answer to the russian is not really uh, basically not at all. i think the obviously, you know, there is this, you know, there is this big, you know, having to push back against, you know, the, you know, these really response and the situation and drives a lot of the same time. i mean, there's a lot of the batch showing going on within the, you know, the idea of world. but also, you know, kind of, you know, maybe through the other sources you know, between, you know, the west and countries like on the radio, in particular on, i was sort of registration from getting worse and then finding all crimes to you know, to, to, to maybe you know, get, you know, the, it's unlikely that you know, some permanency as far as when that happens to be time soon. but, you know, at least we have some, you know, some, some, some temporary ones that are getting shipped now to, you know, to, to sort out hostages and things like that. so, i do, yes, you're sure, you know,

there's a, there's a question. you know, army is real of these are bad, but more, you know, more broadly. i think the concerns about continuing the situation and not letting you get, you know, to the original conflict. i think many people might have been surprised by how quickly the off to have a bite and said no, it's the stream would and, and stop. and of course it was destroyed allegedly, by the bite and administrator. and we saw l n g terminal stop popping up in western europe. so quickly. we know hundreds of thousands of people, poor people die in western europe. uh, in terms of excess debts. do you think of the united states we filling in that gap on the l. n. g to stabilize prices of this winter for west in your the united states has been the number one because the gas for, for, for missing gas lines for, for your, uh, uh, you know, over the last couple of years i should be known back even predating the the rest of the rangers in europe out of gas prices. uh back in 2021 uh,

services bracket gas. right. from texas. right. yeah. oh and from violation you have to come up to and he talks about yeah, you know, for the most part um the shell gas, he has a funeral for actual gas. but i know this is, this is what your needs. uh and, and despite, you know, some of the gas being filled from the us and, you know, maybe some color and other sources. uh, you know, your more broadly, um, but certainly in particular and countries like germany continues to the industrialize right there. you know, they have massive issues in on key industries like alcohol is agriculture, fertilizers and other areas. because even when you know somebody, the, the gas gaps being filled, they are sort of energy or they're finding energy that's too expensive. just take that scale, you know what the shelves government says they say they're doing fine, the coalition and of itself. the sanctions a was a great, great policy of to the ukraine conflict. now winding down,

i'll give you the yeah. the shows the government these days. so i just looked at my vision when people, uh, you know, make a decision on that one ends and the so you, so you're saying that things are going to be really tough. and on western europe, given the decisions they'd be making unless they change the sanctions policy then yeah, these are going to be jobs. i mean, you know, as always, you know, especially in the winter seasons. it kinda depends on how cool the winter is. you know, you're up, they know kind of got off with a relatively easy winter last year. but that's, you know, every year it'd be different this or bad, you know, i mean, you know, i mean, you know, as well or in open an extreme, whether it's fast, you know, that i can kind of change things so. so, you know, is, is still, you know, kind of it in on certain place. yes. they have basically full gas reserves, right. are your gas inventories, but you know, but you know how that works. you know, in a couple months, you know, in march,

april, you know, movie a key to one to watch. so if it's a very severe winter, can your organization estimate how much the sanctions are having? it does have effects how many people are being killed effectively in west, in europe, by the sanctions if it has a severe winter. yeah. and that's a pretty tough number to, to come by. and europe has a cold winter this winter. i think they'll be ok because they do have kind of inventories that are or, and beyond even, you know, kind of normal which are low. so i think this winter will be okay. i think the, the question then becomes, i, the drawdown inventories again, you know, into the spring months, you know, what, what impact does that have for, for them next year. again, go have to go back and buy expensive gas, expensive l g m, for us, you know, or, you know, kind of keep those manufacturing in other sectors needed. you know, not a lot of demand to come back to much do a to be able to maintain in our supply. and just finally, the expansion of a v,

electrical vehicles, we expect a massive mining expansion of minerals that help help put in power the batteries of all these electrical vehicles in the global south in africa and latin america. and so i see these are happening in the, on the left of occasional roll, letting one your testing. uh, you know, a little bit of a, uh, an adjustment process. and the adoptions are for, for any of these reviews, you're going to try to doing better than expected europe is doing it. bias is as well as expected in terms of the adoption. but the biggest part in the world of us is going much lower. and then many seconds as a result of you know, how do we barks in the electric world? and because of that, a lot of no prices for somebody's metals and minerals and other materials that you mentioned have come down quite a bit lithium rough. i, you know, cobalt and other things you know, and do this kind of is realignment going on the demand supply side,

i guess you will need a lot more money. you're gonna need a lot more extraction processing, you know, for batteries and other inputs and you use the next, you know, deacon decade and beyond. as these prices come down that has an impact on either tire supply things. they pushed out delay, but it also has an effect on maybe, you know, spring demand a little bit because price or lower cars are cheaper than they were in or year or 2 years ago. and you want to kind of see this kind of miles play out over the next several years. i mean, you know, they were finding generally that, you know, easy adoption curves are going about as well as we expected, but uh, no overall, but that's lower than many the, you know, we're kind of address on the line you for. but once you've got to get into mass adoption and you know, that gets harder just because of all the heavy, the consumer problems. there's other things that you have to work through. so, so that's kind of where we are with, with, with the these will be

a key thing to watch in the next couple years. average 100. thank you. thanks for out of me. and that's over the show will be back on monday to talk through the us government for the chief economist of the department of agriculture, joseph global, about why hundreds of millions are still facing of food grades is in a world full of food until then keep in touch 5 or less actual media, if it's not a sense within your country and i do i channel going underground tv, hon. they'll come to us new and old episodes of going underground. see you monday. the question, i mean you cleared up, she couldn't

do it from the schools do if you look on the visual do while i pull up significantly, personal liability almost getting used to put value, where do you do oil change? but yeah that's, that's the was done. the newest 3 sisters, the good you, what i see these the bus is the little gear motivation says this tutorial on both of the

the, the sea people ended in the shooting outside and he's really run prison in the west bank that says 42 palestinians, ostensibly released from that facility israel reports relates, threatens that it will be launch attacks if the 2nd group of hostages is not released by midnight as well. how about delays to swap the funding? israel follow the terms of the deal and allow aid into northern gaza. also at the job, i didn't so cases his quotes, personal engagements in securing the release of hostages, held by him us as protest is on the streets and remind him of the other side of the .