to be really was a better will and is it just because it shows very few fractured images presented to this but can you see through their illusion going underground can the of the every spring and

summer the melting optics move reveals abandoned machinery. millions of rusty barrels and the detritus left by human expansion into this most inaccessible of territories. yes, i used to move forward to a customer on both of us for some of the doors at the bus to be joining us. an issue. calling to us from clean optic travels the highest island home to the biggest opponent station on the fence of joseph land archipelago. really asked me for our laws. my boys are more you have to do should. so it means if you have, when you feel when we see lots of money and then put some of the, some will stay on. the old stuff was so much you feel like you are a mess almost a little bit. see me membership when you to, i've got to read on serial, no points to being able to please to join me and sort of the optic plan is main objective was to explore and comcast, these harsh lance they had no time to think about the waste management now and, and then i guess they could remain for centuries. that's my of my choice to fill

out pretty at the course you system of the multiple in your scope of the team could have to deal with to issue the time after that. see and welcome back. to going underground broadcast the all around the world from comp 28 host the u. e, which at the un security council has force the issue of a cease fire limits. the u. k. u. s. and you nation backed alleged garza genocide, while thousands have been killed in gaza near jerusalem. hundreds of thousands may be killed through excess debts in europe. this winter energy is i'll give the keys and guys i had called the 28th. and the last meeting with jesus

e countries plus russia, iran, venezuela, and others have so far, refused nato, a nation calls to pump more oil. joining me now from one of the world's biggest competent mississippi's new york city is abby ridge and during the head of global markets and research at energy intelligence. an adjunct research scholar at columbia university center on global energy policy. i mean, thanks so much for coming back on. so we have north stream, we've had the saudi arabia refusing to bomb lower all along with their big plus members. and presumably, markets already realize that the, the numbers killed in the winter in western europe will. we will be even more than in well, it will be more but it won't be even more that in the, in gaza. yeah. first thanks for having me. i'm certainly a lot going on be in the role of energy, you know, between the oil and gas markets and, and of course,

the politics kind of stuck in between all of it. you know, we're also, you know, kind of going through this roller coaster, you know, within the year where you've got a pretty awesome or, uh, you know, not just temperature wise, but in terms of demand and consumption, the things are going to cooling off as they typically do with that at this time of the year and but you know, a lot of uncertainty, you know, looking to the end of the year and they have to 2024 for sure. but yet there's no increase in oil prices. yeah, i mean, you know what, i mean, november a seasonally is always, you know, has to be really ne, not always the worst month for oil prices. so exhausted. depending on who you are. of course, who you are. yeah, i do the best job. yeah, absolutely. the price, yes, it is always a uh, you know, a tough month to get the price to go up. it's typically a month where the price goes down. and there's always some drama, you know, is in other ways that usually some drama has been a little bit plus heading into thanksgiving weekend. so there's that as well. but

all those countries that didn't want to cease fact, any confident that there wasn't going to be a wider conflagration, that would effect oil prices. i mean, they were confidently saying, we don't want to cease fire. all these children are dying, it's fine, they're all being killed. in terms of its effect, boomer, i'm impact on the economies of western europe and the united states. yeah, i mean the, the, the, the conflict of the situation is, is obviously, uh, you know, pretty, pretty dire and tragic in many ways. um, you know, since the early days, you know, after october 7th, oh we were looking for is this one you just mentioned, which is, you know, the possibility of a, an expansion of the, of the cost like, you know, pulling in other countries going in, you know, has a lot of dental or the item playing a role in particular directly to the conflict with israel that as well. so we don't have relate to some of the other countries in the, in the regions. i know that never happened. right. and, you know,

as every week went by, there was increasingly clear that you know, you're wrong, wiley may have been indirectly involved in sparking the conflict and indirectly did not want to get involved. and even with the others, you know that, that, that never really, you know, kind of, um, uh, gotten worse. um and even, you know, even be able to us and other, you know, have these real allies were pretty keen on keeping their, on a particular out of it. and so for us applies to why we haven't really seen much of a disruption. you know, there was obviously that kind of the initial concern and worry and spicing oil prices, the quickly evaporated. and then we're kind of back down to, you know, to different on the members even though it was a big family. obviously the conflict began decades ago in, in the 1940s, but it was a tell that iran which i'm denied any involvement in october 7, said the they, they could be a big in. but i mean, i saw a senior, his really officials were quoted as saying israel once in the usa, to diplomatically work the pressure as well to with drawer. it's

a troops from the outside when i'm unit on the, on the outskirts of the golden lights. clearly the united states, i don't know what connections they have with as well. but clearly, iran was the big energy factor here as the energy factor uh, again with you as you see on every side, you know, kind of wanted to stay out of it and not really get involved in any kind of escalating the crisis. and that, you know, and that should be olive oil prices that they kind of come to market down even just kind of from a, you know, from the standpoint of equity markets and other markets over a little bit, you know, an easy but the concert in the beginning, but everything just has come down and then they obviously saw, you know, sort of de escalate it in any way, but it has not, you know, kind of become a broader regional issue which is what we were looking for to see there was actually going to be your supply impact, but if it hasn't had an impact directly on the, on the grounds of the brand and 9 mix it over the dead bodies of these thousands of

children by the incentives, energy, security, advisor, aimless hochstein to israel. while this was happening, i mean, i mean, one way i go to as why, um, uh, the united states as one higher oil prices because it isn't that exponent. but in another way, well, it was the doing there. and why with these rarely papers talking about tons of in gas in gaza while we were watching the pictures of all of these muddy children? yeah, i mean look, i mean, i think she, you know, i think there are those oil and gas, you know, kind of issues or play. i mean, from the, you know, from the us standpoint that i know the focus, you know, has been on to keep things. one is not letting the situation escalate and finding, you know, sort of offer as findings and you know, the middle ground where hostages and other things to be giving you a shaded us that, you mean, you know, ask,

i obviously is escalating because every day you monitors more children were being killed, you mean not escalated geographically. it was contained within the 2000000 people living in the message, gaza strip. right. and then also trying to find a way to come up with, you know, with, with, with some ways to address the civilian casualties. this relation address, often situation. so it's find somewhere around from, from all sides. and i think the 2nd point is directly the energy, right. i mean, i think this, this administration is, is very, is hypersensitive of our energy prices because of the general and then the presidential election. you mean? yeah, exactly. you know, i'm, you know, it's, it's holiday season and a lot of folks are traveling is done and 4 units out of the year. so there's that. and then of course, looking at the grade $24.00, right. we don't want, you know, we don't want us to turn into a big, you know, brought original issue and then you have a 100 and hundreds and to the dollar oil prices like you had last year. you know, when the rest of your big conflict 1st broke down so. so definitely want to avoid that. that was interesting is when the oil side, you know,

the supply destruction on the natural gas side, as you did right. uh, is 0 to down to tomorrow. feel that, you know what i had uh, you know, how does that do egypt and then uh, i know other areas i know that was the kind of been, you know, approximately reverse and, and, and recent lease. and that was also part of the, you know, part of the, the, the discussion, you know, part of the, the focus your mind just where this ellen g comes from a process through israel and they shut it down after october, 7th, to egypt. that's right. so, so this is as an officer of the deal uh, also the off of israel. uh, so when i get past it in israel, some of it actually goes into egypt, which gives, we export it out and we just don't wanna guess in june domestically yet. and solve it gives we export it out and so that would shut down for a couple of weeks and then you know, is now back on. so that was also part of it. why, why does egypt be the n, n g off the coast of palestine or israel, where the occupied territories kind of hit it elsewhere?

why is it collaborating so closely with a government video on paper? and they say they disagree with the edge cause of genocide about yeah, why don't they can't really get anywhere else to. yeah, this is a product that was kind of, you know, code developed and co commercialized in an easy it was an outlet for that gas. you know, the gas getting developed, you know, huge it was, it was kind of an outlet for, for getting that a gas, you know, a home, you know, through elegy exports to, to europe and other sources of. so you know that, that, you know, it was kind of a commercial business decision that they knew about it for many years. uh, and, you know, and, and run, and we're going to see what was each your point. i know, obviously this kind of is big pushback or i guess the, you know, have you used to go in a situation and got a well see what the future of the laser looks like? yeah, it seems strange to me talking about uh, oil revenues, future revenues which is reported. and is there any bay or press from energy

resources given there? are people probably dying? can i children dying that night because of the cold in guys who god hate them, their homes. what exactly is the extent of energy reserves in this area where people kind hate themselves tonight? i mean uh, is it, uh which one even hundreds of millions of dollars with billions of dollars worth of gas from gaza. i mean, you know, from a reserve your reserve standpoint, there are millions of dollars of, of, of, of gas there. i think the likelihood of it any time soon getting commercialized, right? you know, you kind of have to go through the process of bringing in an operator as would be interested in developing these resources, you know, figuring out now the, the partnerships, the revenue sharing with the new local government, things like that. all of that. and you know, seems like, you know, a very, very distant type of potential situation. i mean vps rece, raphael tech,

so reports about b p's, the lease on the expiration rights. i understand. yeah, i do. so they run out. i mean, that's the thing, right? yeah. the, the, the producers, the operator is you don't need to cause the political stability they need to, you know, see a security situation that's stable. they're not, you know, is obviously now if things are, you know, quite a messy but you know, they're not good. they're not likely to kind of g lives in why is it, why was this guy being sent? and then a most hawk stein. i mean, he worked in texas gas my markets, you'd expect proper diplomats to be visiting israel to discuss the legend aside. not oil people, the main um energy advisor to the by the administration being sent to mid, slowly. uh, all the kidding well, what was the last 4 of them as well as yours? the name is the diplomat that, you know, has gotten quite

a few deep relationships in the region. he's been in the region and worked there many times to this ministration over the last couple of years. you know, and, and even kind of creating this administration, you know, he's been there and he's got, you know, kind of a relationship, you know, pretty adviser at all, but he's spent, there's going to be a much, i'm inside the room. yeah. you know, did you're buying in the amaris and then other car so, you know, so leveraging those relationships, you know, and again, trying to make, you know, a, i think it's less about energy and more trying to find some offer. and here's the situation . is this role and of course, you know, there's, there's an energy piece to it as well. you know, given that this, this options are going to buy mine or are they getting is really kind of warranty of the security uh, you know, and then stability side. um, so yeah, i mean, you know, from, from, you know, from the american standpoint of sending emails that are kind of makes sense and, you know, given the, you know, energy is pretty, you know,

tied into this whole situation in the region. you know, having some of that expertise does all be ridge 100. i'll stop you that more from the head of global markets in research at energy intelligence. after this break the the, [000:00:00;00]

the 1941 with the nazis health relation, ultra nationalist, the massages the claim, the independent state of croatia. shortly on the seizing power, they built the scene of us concentration camp, a place associated with the worst atrocities committed in yugoslavia. during world war 2, use dash is used to come system to isolate and exterminate subs, roma, jews, and other non catholic minorities, and political opponents of the fascist regime. conditions in the scene of us. campbell, who renders the gods tortured to arise and the prisoners. they send them a consultation temps. so most of them died. it was incredible genocide,

the welcome back to going underground. i'm still here with the global markets and research and energy intelligence ivy ridge engine. i mean, we've been talking about the conflicts getting bigger in that might say effect energy prices, which it hasn't sofa does not mean that given the in the lebanese context, we've heard the iran say, well, it's up to them and, and what it wants to do, the control of energy markets in a sense, across the world depends on what happens in south lebanon. yeah. you know, we, we, we were talking about this briefly before, i think that is, you know, sort of, your, your a spar to a, you know, potentially bigger conflict, right? and i think obviously from, you know, us or israel or you know, allied side they don't want that, but it doesn't really seem like the, you know, the hezbollah and, you know, going to be the, you know,

in directly through iran side really wants that either. we've been watching this closely for, you know, for, you know, nearly 2 months now doesn't really seem like there's any sort of, you know, internet and mobilization to a bigger with right now they're buying them. ministration certainly hasn't been happy about previous opec plus meetings and to be blinking, being sent to beg as savvy or a be to increase production and so on. we had expected the oh, big plus meeting. as this week, what do you think behind the postponing of a such an important subject critical. oh big plus meeting. and it will be in around the time of cop $28.00 as well here in dubai. yeah, interesting timing. the meeting are getting delayed to the start date of, of, of cop 28. so that's the, obviously we're going to be interested in classroom messages by the time, be strongly cutting. production is good for the environment as well. and, but it also has issues, you know,

as an artifact on prices and inflation and you know, an investment in that new energy to right. so. so again, it does have both ways. um, you know, the i realtor plus look, i think the, they have the 2 key, you know, messy issues to work through. the 1st is the, you know, salary. right? yeah, it's kind of taking the burden of, of, of cutting on behalf of the group. you know disproportionately, while that has happened, i know you had one, you know, some, you know, some pretty unreliable lies from russia, which is the, you know, the, the other big coffee that matters. you had to be wrap up in production from the wrong. uh and you know, it's kind of a slow, steady ramp up from the point where do you, when you're analyzing this, where do you get the figures from? because as you imply there, there's a grey market now for oil ever since the south sanctioning of european governments

in the sanctioning in the united states. have you ever seen the statistics in such a malays as the they all right now when it comes to oil production, oil, transportation, oil services, generally given no one seems to know who's selling, who's buying and what price they're buying and selling a. yeah. so i mean, we are, you know, we're one individual, secondary source of the packet and the energy intelligence. you know, we, we, we've got it in over a 100 bucks or boots on the ground. we've talked a trailer, a shipper as other folks who are in the oil industry in or from and, and, and so we try to piece together a lot of the story ourselves and get our own full way. lean secret meetings by the dark side us because they kind of said no, we built our services right here. we got those on the dock side or we can pick up the phone and call with them. so, you know, obviously we can do the phone and call you guys most, you know, words. i mean, the 1st floor you know, for these sections and price gaps and things like that, who are, who are contact so. so, so it's probably easier to do uh, you know, a great job, you know,

handing up as much information as they get rid of it. as you mentioned, there is a gray market. there is some of, you know, basically it's in the information, but we try to kind of piece it together as much as we can. we, you know, we produce monthly stops on reserves res production, exports. you know, i mean, you know, what we see is, you know, kind of free market like market ever volumes. so we try to account for all of that into our intelligence right into our, you know, kind of our, our bigger picture, logan, what's going on. and we markets in terms of, of supply demand prices and whatnot. and this is actually nbc this into a back itself it's, it's a lot of the english that they use when they go into big decisions like this. and, you know, i think from what they're seeing, it's kind of in line with all we're seeing is that there's a lot of, you know, kind of, you know, choppy compliance. there's a lot of, you know, you know, countries that are, you know, wrapping up production. you know, there's some cheating here and there, and that's, you know, part of the develop. so there's going to have to be some official production caught

. so now, so the next up x plus meeting, given this environment, i would say irish produces no official. i mean, we have official pricing because now i think we're gonna have to one see a better focus on compliance, you know, kind of reading. and so those producers that have, you know, that have been, you know, kind of leading volumes. i saw your realistic and way volumes back into the market . and i think the 2nd pieces was, which was the dimension was, was, you know, so it was more or less countries. i'm not pushing back on their production quarters . they're saying is too low. it needs to be higher. that's another piece, you know? yeah. these are smaller are members to, it's not the big ones. that's another thing that needs to be addressed at this meeting. but, you know, there's really, really isn't our desire radio taking the, you know, the burden of this production cause, i mean, you're kind of rain, is somebody's producers that are, you know, kind of doing the wrong thing, you know, otherwise, you know, sort of threatening that you know that they're going to, i'm one of their thoughts and that everybody loses with lower prices as a result. because saudi arabia,

very vocal about calling for an arms and by go against israel. and of course, the amount of military weaponry and so on, in the east mediterranean using vital energy resources must have some kind of impact, doesn't it, to the largest ahmad isn't history. one of them bite and incentives, mediterranean, all these wall plains, aircraft, carriers, military equipments, and the end to the south china sea. isn't that affecting energy prices to? so i think the answer to the russian is not really uh, basically not at all. i think the obviously, you know, there is this, you know, there is this big, you know, having to push back against, you know, the, the beauty is really response and the situation advisor. but at the same time, i think there's a lot of the batch island going on within the, you know, the idea of world. but also, you know, kind of, you know, maybe through the other sources you know, between, you know,

the west and countries like on the radio, in particular, on house or the parenthesis duration from getting worse. and then finding all problems to you know, to, to, to maybe, you know, any get, you know, the, it's unlikely that you know, some permanency as far as when that happens when we talk soon, bye. now, you know, police, we have some, you know, some, some, some temporary ones that are getting shipped now to, you know, to, to sort out hostages and things like that. so i do. yeah. search or, you know, there's a, there's a question, you know, army, israel, and these are type of more, you know, more broadly. i think the big concerns about continuing the situation and not letting you get, you know, to the original conflict. i think many people might have been surprised by how quickly the off to have a bite and said no, it's the stream would and, and stop. and of course it was destroyed allegedly, by the bite and administration, we saw l. n g terminals start popping up in western europe. so quickly. we know hundreds of thousands of people poor people die in western europe. uh,

in terms of excess debts. do you think of the united states we filling in that gap on the l. n. g to stabilize prices of this winter for western you're the united states has been the number one because the gas for, for, for missing gas lines for, for your you know, over the last couple of years i should be known back even predating the, the rest of the rangers in europe out of gas rises back in 2021 uh, services bracket or gas right. from texas. right. yeah. oh. and from violation? yeah. come come to and he talks about yeah, you know, for the most part of the shell gas, he has a funeral for actual gas, but i know this is, this is what your needs. and then despite, you know, some of the kind of gas being thrilled from the us and, you know, maybe some color and other sources. you know, you're more broadly but, but certainly in particular, and countries in germany continues to the industrialized idea. you know,

they have massive issues in, on key industries like i'm a goals, agriculture, fertilizers and in other areas. because even when you know somebody, the, the gas gas being feel, they are sort of energy or they're finding energy that's too expensive to skate, that scale, you know what the shouts government says. they say they're doing fine, the coalition and of itself. the sanctions a was a great, great policy of the ukraine conflict. now winding down, i'll give you the. yeah. the shows government is not right by the government these days. so i just want to have a german people. uh, you know, make a decision on that one ends and the so you, so you're saying that things are going to be really tough and one west and you're given the decisions they'd be making unless they change the sanctions policy. and then yeah, these are the, the top, i mean, you know, as always, you know, especially in the winter seasons, it kinda depends on how cool the winter is. you know, you're,

they know kind of got off with a relatively easy winter last year. but that's, you know, every year it'd be different this or bad, you know, i mean, you know, i mean, you know, as of other, you know, kind of extreme weather advice. i know that i can kind of change things so, so you know, is, is still kind of an uncertain place. yes. they have basically full gas reserves right out of your gas inventories. but you know, but you know how that works. you know, in a couple months, you know, in march, april, you know, movie a key to one to watch. so if it's a very severe winter, can your organization estimate how much? uh, the sanctions are having tons of effects. how many people are being killed effectively in west, in europe, by the sanctions? if it has a severe winter top number to come by or europe has a cold winter this winter. i think you'll be ok because they do have kind of inventories that are over and beyond even you know, kind of normal winter low. so i think this winter will be okay. i think the,

the question then becomes, is the, the drawn out of the mentors again, you know, into the spring months. you know what, what part is that, how for, for them next year again, go have to go back and buy expensive gas, expensive gm for us, you know, or, you know, going to keep those manufacturing and other sectors needed. you know, not long demand to come back too much due to be able to maintain, you know, supply. and just finally, the expansion of a v, electrical vehicles, we expect a massive mining expansion of minerals that help help put in power in the batteries of all these electrical vehicles in the global south in africa and not the america . so this is, these are happening in the, on the left vocational role, letting one, your hosting. uh, you know, a little bit of a, uh, an adjustment process. and the adoptions are for, for any of these reviews, you're going to try, who's doing better than expected europe is doing about us as,

as well as expected in terms of is easy adoption. but the biggest part in the world of us is going much lower than the many seconds. so there's a lot of moving parts in the electric world. and because of that, a lot of prices for some of these metals and minerals and in other materials that you mentioned have come down quite a bit. lithium, rough, i, you know, cobalt and other things you know. and do this kind of has realignment going on with the demand and supply. so i guess you will need a lot more money and you're going to need a lot more distraction processing, you know, for batteries and other inputs into use for the next, you know, decent decade and beyond. as these prices come down, that has an impact on either time use of why things get pushed out delay. but it also has an effect on maybe, you know, spring demand a little bit because the price or lower cars are cheaper than they were in or year or 2 years ago. you're going to see this cat and mouse play out over the next

several years. i mean, you know, they were finding generally that, you know, easy adoption curves are going about as well as we expected. but uh, you know, overall but, but slower than many the, you know, we're kinda addressing the line you for. but once you're going to get into mass adoption and you know, that gets harder just because of all the kind of the, the, the consumer problems. there's other things that you have to work through. so, so that's kind of where we are with, with, with the these will be a key thing to watch in the next couple years savvy ridge engine. thank you. thanks for out of me. and that's it for the show will be back on monday. do talk to the us government for the chief economist of the department of agriculture, joseph global, about why hundreds of millions are still facing of food. cries is in a world full of food until then keep in touch by the social media. if it's not offensive in your country and i do i channel going underground tv, hon, they'll come to us and you and all the episodes of going underground see you monday the