the, the the hello and welcome to cross talk. we're all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle, nato's ukraine, proxy war and russia. it should have never happened before the conflict. there were options a month into the complex. there were options to ended. the west refuse to negotiate now ending this conflict is proving most difficult. the

cross talking ukraine. i'm joined by my guessing nichol. i petro in kings, and he is professor of political science at the university of rhode island. and in brussels. we cross the go, but carol, he is an independent political analyst, an author at mazda, of an ex pad manager in moscow during the 19 ninety's. i tell him, in cross up roles and the fact that means you can jump any time you want. and i always appreciate nichol, i recently wrote a very, very interesting article i thought, quite provocative in and, and compelling in many ways titled, what's next for ukraine? the outlines of a peaceful settlement. can you, if this is hard to do with television, it's better to do it in print, but can you give us the main con tours of what a peaceful settlement would be? but i think there is a general agreement among the analysts that this war is not going to be won by you pray. green therefore needs to seek a settlement on the outlines of this settlement were already reached in march and april of 2022. uh, and they basically uh,

boiled down to an exchange of security for land. um the issue that remains of guaranteeing the, uh, the rights of where the russian minority rushes speaking minority in ukraine. and i think that can be done by hearing to the stipulations of the printing and constitution and should be made a requirement for you admission for ukraine to which rusher by the way, according to president boynton has never objected. okay, but you know, gilbert, you know, as, as we are convening here, the wall street journal is running an article titled, you officials fear ukraine, military collapse. so a lot of this talk is kind of academic and no, no offense. the academics like our guest here. but the fax on the ground are,

are coming a pace, aren't they here? i mean, the, the if, if, and we see what's going on in the us congress, it looks like the g o. p in the house is not in any rush to help out the ukraine, which the craniums have admitted that they're completely dependent on western aid right now. so talking about a settlement is actually quite germane. go ahead gilbert. to talk about a settlement. is it entirely between washington or washington? yep. the there is the assumption that whenever washington gives a week and a come together. but just gesture of its fingers. moscow will little day and will be pleased to be to be considered as a talking partner. not as crowds, nothing could be further from the truth. the history that we're discussing today has been virtually a daily subject of discussion on the talk shows that russian state television

features 5 days, 6 days a week, which are widely watched. and these talk shows have been to my estimation in the past few weeks, kind of going very much in line. but you can imagine is going on every time the russians in their apartment or, or josh is break. greg, with french, these are, these are the most important and topical questions. can there be a piece and should there be a piece whenever washington says, come hither the consensus that i see there's no way that for once. ok, food twice, but full of sweet times. rush, it will not be full 3 times. and the notion that uh that that can be a supplement of uh, utilizing the terms of the, of the ukrainian constitution to protect. so the, the rights of minorities for which my daughter has, it's not just russian minorities, but on gary image, i have not used romanian minorities who are all treated to the same uh,

a very cru terms the, the russian speakers i've had experience with the, with the t you be able to enforce such demands on ukraine, that it did honor this constitution and honor the, the general rules of, of you main practices and use of proper freedom of expression of education and so forth to his restless picking minority. no way we've been through minutes to it brought us nothing. the you itself is not proper enforcer of these rights of menard's within me here. you the right. so just to look at the russian case, a russian speak minorities are trampled on and have been trampled on just before 2004 in the baltic states were admitted. everyone knew within that the disease states or in strict violation of the rules within the d. u for emission based on

the protection of minority as well as well. gilbert gilbert yeah, you have to add on add on. i'll throw it to nikolai right now. is it, we've had this intense ukrainian ization of culture of language. i mean, and, you know, i, i don't know why convention, you know, kind of the band or not bend drive ideology here, but only the last couple of new cycles. there are no russians speakers in ukraine, they don't exist. i mean, how do you deal with a government like that? okay. i mean, and, and it's all fueled on um, by western officials in money. i mean, if the problem is that i want peace as much as anyone else, i really do. but how do you talk to people like that? say, there aren't any russians speakers and ukraine? it's absurd, nikolai. i agree with all the points made. and yet the outcome inevitably is the same. namely, that negotiated settlement will have to be reached. that doesn't mean that one

side or the other cool doesn't claim victory. in fact, the victory is most likely to go to russia, which means that the terms of settlement will be defined largely by russia, but never the less a settlement it'll be and it will be a negotiated settlement with who uh, that's a matter that will no doubt of evolved overtime, whether zalinski is that person looks increasingly, but this is purely speculation, but it might not be. well, we could speculate endlessly about who is replaced by might be. it's likely that a success is to zalinski, will do exactly with zelinski did to put our friend go and, but our friend could do to his predecessor, which was, which is to run out of the beast candidate. now at that point, uh uh, russia will still have to negotiate with terms of its settlement, assuming its victorious and there will be, uh,

some sort of adaptations. and some sort of, um, quid pro, quote, in order to achieve rushes, security objective that the important thing that is by far the most important it is go back to gilbert in, in, in brussels, washington, russia, go to the table right now. why? why, okay? because you know what russian is not interested in, go shading minutes 3. okay. so, and that's the west is always going to do that. nato is always going to do that by time until they could do it again. go ahead gilbert. first i'd like to ask, what do we mean by russia here, or you can produce an angle. i think my colleague, nikolai will, will find attractive. that is taking a lesson from literature and from, from the arts. the literature that i want to bring in, it's not great classics but russian classics to be precise laptop. so i the warranties, just total pro mark the pro largest, maybe

a 100 pages long. and it deals with the question this very topical today. and it has to do with, with the very question you posed, peter, that is, who runs the show. is it the great man in history leaders who are making decisions that doesn't have great consequences for their countries in the world? or are they the, the, the expression, the implemented, the tool my one might say of the national will. and here in the, in the west, it's assuming that russert means one man pushing. we all know he's a 3rd tater. we all know that dictators control everything about a 145000000 people under them too, and so forth. that is a, quite for it nonsense, but it's a kind of fairy tale that is the mainstream understanding of how the world works. it doesn't work that way, and russia, as it does anywhere, mr. pushing is to, in many respects, it helps formulate russian policy. but he also is an expression of the role of the

people and the role of the people today and russian. by that, i mean primarily the, the, the leads is very much against sitting down to table with anyone coming from from kids. because they, there is a, the, the quick question applies to to kids who runs the show. i don't think anyone believes that's the last few ones, the show or the solution they would run the show or the restore which wouldn't put rent would would, would run the shoe. busy there is a group, a creek called of neo nazis, and the label isn't important. but there is a clique of people who for who, who are responsible for the coup d'etat february 2014, who are still calling the shots. and that's the issue for russia. how those people can be removed from power if there is to be a negotiated settlement. but let's take a step back. negotiated supplement, why?

well, it is, even on the bill. the article was last friday, which, which was discussing a secret agreement between bites and controls that they would cut back on arms deliveries to ukraine and try to pressure mr. zalinski to, to go to his people. and i'm too cool for the i'm but i'm sorry, i'm sorry gilbert. i'm sorry gilbert. yeah, that's who's kabuki feet or? i mean um bite and can call. is it lensky right now? we've got a nichol. i call them right now and tell them what to do. i mean, i, i can, you know nothing about ukraine without ukraine? this is all nonsense. it's, it's nonsense. go ahead. nikolai, as we can rely on all leaders, including ukraine, new leaders to struggle for their own personal survival share and their own interests. one of the leading opposition papers now managed outside of ukraine. but why is the red still in ukraine?

is argued or pointed out, i should say that there been a, there's been a great empower's ation of ukraine. but at the very top's, people have managed very well and, and indeed are making money hand over fist through the system a broad. all right, well the way that i want to go, i want to, i want to do with corrupt and after our break here, we're gonna have to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion. then you can stay with our team, the, [000:00:00;00] the of

the 1834 prance invaded algeria and straight away the french started inhabiting it to strengthen their position. the column is known as the new wars, the best land. from day one, the local population was put into an unequal position and was briefly exploited. this cause and as discontent. the people of l g area began their long term fight for independence. in 1954, the banner of freedom was raised by the national liberation front. a guerrilla war against the occupants broke out. the french tried to suppress, to rebuild you and using cruel measures. whole villages were wiped out acts of georgia and executions of civil people, including pregnant women children and old people took place more than 2000000 people were born into concentration camps. however,

these punitive measures didn't help. cl, jerry and patriots managed to induce france to start seize negotiations in 1962 heavy and the cords were assigned 40 l. jerry on the bass towards independence. but this was achieved at a colossal price. algeria by rights is considered to be a country of martyrs. according to the calculations of historians, the french colonists are responsible for the debts of one and a half 1000000 algerians. the welcome back. across stock were all things are considered 9 peter level to remind you were discussing ukraine.

the let's go back to nikolai and kingston. i'm like, let's finish up on this point on corruption because this is something that, you know, in the very beginning i war and very, very clearly this is, you know, you're only making it worse, the corruption in ukraine and it was very bad. and, but prior to the conflict that was, that was a talking point. ukraine's one of the most corrupt countries in the world. and then for about a year, you couldn't say it. and then suddenly could start saying that because they really weren't getting their money is worth of meaning the, the tax payers in the west here. um there's going to be a reckoning with that. i mean, i've often surmised that even if there is a settlement, there's going to be a lot of people being held account or should be held account in ukraine. where does that all that money actually go as well? you'll probably never know for sure, since even the pentagon can't do them, they can't even do an audit to the files. yeah, that's true, but i did want to get to the,

to reiterate the point that there will be negotiations between moscow and ukraine for any settlement of this war, for any fees, fire, for any armistice, any step along the way will require negotiations. and i have little doubt that people will step forward whether they want to or not, whether simply because the field of people above them has been abandoned and everyone else is less than do the only ones left to hold the bag. nevertheless, there will be people with whom these negotiations will be undertaken. of course, they will be in a weaker position because they will, to the extent that they are interested in reaching any accord with russia. they will be abandoned by the west. and as a result, they will have little choice, but to concede to russia's demands my warning, however,

drew rushes that we all have something to lose here. okay. it is quite possible that russia will push too far demand too much me for even too quickly into territories that it really does not want in your brain. and therefore opening its itself up to counter strikes and moves and more military stalemate. so there's danger on all sides to be aware of. that's such a good point in. um, i think you might, i, i'm pretty sure both of you read an article written by john mearsheimer recently. and then he comes to what kind of settlement will it be? well, he believes that like we all do, that russia is going to win, but it will be an ugly piece, which i thought was a very interesting way of describing it. gilbert, i don't, i don't think that a rush. it has maximal as views here of but the speed, the, the, the word is already been mentioned on this program. it will solve a lot of problems. finally, take seriously rushes,

security demands the rest of it. believe it or not, can be a detail, just details, but brush it wants it security respects it. and i think from that point it things could actually um, and reasonably easily. and magnanimously gilbert, on the 4th and magnanimously, they would have 3 people up to us on the crane and on the us side to it. i don't see it, such people exist, but i didn't get a chance to quite finish the remark about the build article. the they have agreed that if you claim you cannot uh, hold up it sent an detrick's negotiations, then they would be content with the pros and cons. but the idea of approaching conflict has been floated and that states repeatedly over the last month or 2. and it so, and it's dealt with is if it's a natural thing to happen because we all know that they are at an impasse and that's no one has won the war. well,

that observation is strictly one of the of the washington line. it doesn't correspond to reality on the ground and it has the needs that behind it, the concept, what's words about which is no way to take someone took out, rushed his own definition of the subject is not america's definition, but what is subject to should be its own definition of objectives or to destroy the ukrainian armed forces and not to cease territory. this is not a territorial war from the russian perspective. and from their perspective, they are winning the wonderful because they are in fact destroying demand power reserves of ukrainian army. so they would be content, i believe, with a frozen conflict, but not the, not at the point. good washington thinks the book, take the frozen conflict from the musket perspective would be one in which russia takes a guess a moves up to the treasury street and closes the ukraine from the black sea. uh essentially leaving the country uh handicapped. its not

a failed stage to fall into the hands of d u, and to be massively subsidized forever by the you that would suit russia find. the main issue, as do you have said repeatedly, is the russian security, and that will depend not on assigned to be straight is simple, depend on the facts on the grounds that's ukraine's borders are sufficiently far, that ukraine's military potential is sufficiently handicapped that the west is perfectly understanding, going to attempt to install the missiles and other other military equipment threatening, the russia will be meeting with a response that is devastating, perhaps not just on ukrainian territory, but back in germany or wherever else this equipment is coming from. so russia will look after its own security. it doesn't need a security guaranteed uh from the united states. so you, you to protect itself. well, i mean, well, well, you know,

you in security doesn't happen in a vacuum. and this segue is perfectly to where i want it to go. nikolai, as the 3 of us, i very rationally and i think compassionately and will all of us want this to come to an end? they stop the killing, but you know, we have um, next year, the 75th anniversary of nato. okay. and they're coming up with, you know, little magical ideas. how that kind of twist and turn. and you know, we can slip them in this way. slipped them in that way. i mean, it's quite grotesque. okay, because we even stilton virg hit the secretary generally admitted off the counselor by mistake. i don't know that yes, nato expansion was the origins of this conflict, but they're still talking about nato expansion. i mean, what, what, where do these people come from and what do they want to achieve? well, they to has the purpose of expanding nato. ok. okay, there you go. that's their, that's their mission, right? yes. okay, well,

it's just it surfaces for survival and funding. but i think of a rump ukrainian stage without an outlet to the black sea would leave a territory that is sizable attached to nato. and that wouldn't be rambunctious in nature. and that wouldn't be dangerous to russia in perpetuity. it's one of the reasons why 1960 the 16 why prime minister of the novel said we should not annex the lease. yeah. so in, in a memo to, sorry, nickel is the 2nd because we would not gain anything from it. and when the wisest things i read is that russia has no interest culturally historically, or in terms of security,

a 2 x regions that do not want to be part of it or could not reason a reasonable amount of time be pacified and, and, and with the majority would not be comfortable being part of russia, and i'm afraid that much of western and even now central ukraine falls into the category that territory and its relationship to russia. add to the, the ben to europe that still has to be negotiated. and that is, in fact, the central point that will have to be negotiated in the, in the larger uh, pine europe and security arrangement, which should be at this point already. insight as part of our objectives. well, what we just heard from nickaligha is possible, but if that's the goal that they want to achieve. well, i got a i, i differ slightly with you, but i think at the end of the day rush, it has that security interest at heart. that's it's number one issue here. how that

is translated into policy and dealing with the neighborhood can go in different directions here. but i mean, i'm not sure nato is interested in security in europe. they. and now the difference is now, is that russia is the official enemy, remember they? oh, where does a defensive alliance? what watches bottom, you know, our enemy hold all that is changed right now. and rush. it has to keep an eye on nato, considering its already expanded during this conflict. go ahead gilbert. the most expensive nature that we've seen since the admission of the bowls exchange has been counter productive for the security of europe. i think that my, i used to correspond very closely with steve collins and he was saying that nato is not a fraternity club. the university is the idea of admitting new members should be conditions on one question. will this increase or decrease the security of the existing members? that is passively clear to just if it became

a actionable only several years after the fact that the meeting the baltic states was a big negative for security of the existing members. so is true or for admitting of finland, but as 1200 kilometer long border. this to be defended by a population of 9000000. it's absurd, it can only be a did track detract from the security of europe. now, i don't think the russians would be to put out if the display to them brought into it a rug. uh ukraine, that is some distance from, from where you're creating and borders were. yeah, before all this, this war began in the, the fact that that brussels would be controlling the other was insane. people running ukraine and preventing them from, of triggering a pan. you repeat, and it's not global war. but i think that in itself would be positive. but only

after ukraine has been so reduced in size, as in population, drugs and removed had a greater distance from, from russia's borders. stay under those conditions. i think russia could live with a new member ukraine, whether you, whether the naval members fall live with me. it's all about the risk is then let me add less than 30 seconds to nickel. i. what can we react to what we just heard from gilbert? 30 seconds, go ahead. i mean, i think that effectively transforms villanueva into the bumper state. the rush is looking for what i don't need to keep going. i, i, i just think, well, if it closes some problems, body raises others. and all of these issues as well. what we need is the hands of live trust. we need it. we need another helsinki process. okay, that's, that's what we need. need right now. rapidly i'm running out of time. i want to

remind our viewers. nicolai's a s a is what's next for ukraine, the outlines for a peaceful settlement. you can find it at anti war dot com. it's all the time we have a one, i think my guess in brussels and it takes on. and of course i want to take our viewers for watching us here at r t c and next time. and remember prospect the,

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to the left should be to go the, it the but with good he does go was like who are fine, but i was calling to check to see to see, oh see ya need them to see she must see washing, who'd be in the most of the you have to put us on that it can, is undoubtedly an institution developed, dependent on many countries. they have 1300000000 roman catholics around the world . and as they say in america, follow the money that it can guess most of its money from pro western countries. a

lot of the nato countries, spain, italy, england, germany, as well as mexico and the united states. so it is dependent on the fact that people sort of come on. let's get congrats on you got you have to deal with the original way. move the families of palestinians release from israel. they present in 3 a night with their long awaited loved ones. meanwhile, another 12 hostages fried by homos arrive back in israel, the and the palestine bread crescent society calls on the international community for help as a heads up because it's too big as hospitals are arrested, organizations that supports person says israel should be held accountable health care workers and permit they should enjoy the boxes to the to keep and was they