the, the, the, it is the final day of the last israel truce as it talks to extend the temporary cease fire it continue and a new group of is really hostages is heading home, according to the red cross. tomas relates as to russian is really hostages, who have already made their way through the rasa crossing in egypt. and israel's national security minister calls to ban. tell us to the ends from celebrating the return of prisoners, the director of the largest palestinian human rights organization describes the terrible conditions his compatriots in his riley jails faced the do you mean anything to change the furnace, the new prisoners? and sometimes they don't allow that for one moment. they do all of them without the

plumes, the cutoff, even the water, hot water for sure, and things like that. the headlines are following here on our to international next on cross talk. peter lavelle touched with his guess about all the options for piece, a new crane that the west ignored, and how ending the complex now is proving most difficult by the hello and welcome to cross talk. we're all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle, nato's ukraine proxy war and russia should have never happened before the conflict . there were options a month into the complex. there were options to ended. the west refuse to negotiate . now ending this conflict is proving most difficult.

the of the cross talking ukraine. i'm joined by my guest nichol, i, petro in kingston. he is professor of political science at the university of rhode island and in brussels. we cross and gilbert carl. he is an independent political analyst, an author of mazda, of an x pad manager in moscow during the 19 ninety's. i, gentleman cross up role is in effect, that means you can jump anytime you want. and i always appreciate nichol. i recently wrote a very, very interesting article, i thought quite provocative in and, and compelling in many ways. titled, what's next, where ukraine, the outlines of a peaceful settlement. can you, if this is hard to do in television, it's better to do an imprint, but can you give us the main con tours of what a peaceful settlement would be? but i think there is a general agreement among the analysts, but of this war is not going to be won by your bright green, therefore needs to seek

a settlement. the outlines of this settlement were already reached in march and april of 2022. uh, and they basically uh, boiled down to an exchange of securities for land. um the issue with the remains of guaranteeing the, uh, the rights of, uh, where the russian minority, russian speaking minority in ukraine. and i think that can be done by hearing to the stipulations of the opinion constitution and should be made a requirement for you admission for ukraine to which rush or by the way, according to president boynton has never objected. okay, but you know, gilbert, you know, as, as we are convening here, the wall street journal is running an article titled, you officials fear ukraine,

military collapse. so a lot of this talk is kind of academic and no, no offense. the academics like our guest here. but the fax on the ground are, are coming a pace, aren't they here? i mean, the, the if, if, and we see what's going on in the us congress that looks like the g o. p in the house is not in any rush to help out ukraine, which the craniums have admitted that they're completely dependent on western aid right now. so talking about a settlement is actually quite germane. go ahead gilbert. to talk about a settlement. is it entirely between washington in washington? yep. the there is the assumption that whenever washington gives a week and a come get her. um, let me just gesture of its fingers. moscow will little day and will be pleased to be to be considered as a talking partner. not as crowds, nothing could be further from the truth. the issues that we're discussing today has

been virtually a daily subject of discussion on the talk shows that russian state television features 5 days, 6 days a week, which are widely watched. and these talk shows have been to my estimation in the past few weeks, kind of going very much in line the, but you can imagine is going on every time the russians in their apartment or i or josh is break. greg, with french, these are, these are the most important and topical questions. can there be a piece and should there be a piece whenever washington says, come hither the consensus that i see there's no way that for once. ok, full twice, but full of speed times rush. it will not be full 3 times. and the notion that uh that that can be a supplement of uh, utilizing the terms of the, of the ukrainian constitution to protect. so the,

the rights of minorities for which my daughter has this not just russian minorities, gary and much, i have no idea romanian minorities who are all treated to the same uh uh, very crew terms that the russian speakers i've had experience with the, with the t you be able to enforce such demands on ukraine, that it did honor this constitution, an honor, the, the general rules of 4 of you main practices and use of proper freedom of expression, but education and so forth, to his restless picking minority. no way we've been through minutes to it brought us nothing. the you itself is not proper enforcer of these rights of minorities within media. you the right. so just to look at the russian case, a russian speak minorities are trampled on and happen, trampled on just before 2004. when the baltic states were admitted. everyone knew

within that the, that the states or in strict violation of the rules within the d. u for emission based on the protection of minority as well as well. gilbert gilbert yeah, you have to add on add on. i'll throw it to nikolai right now. is it, we've had this intense ukrainian ization of culture of language. i mean, and, you know, i, i don't, you know, what i could mention, you know, and kind of the band or not a vendor id ideology here. but only the last couple of new cycles. there are no russians speakers in ukraine, they don't exist. i mean, how do you deal with a government like that? okay. i mean, it and, and it's all fueled on um, um, by western officials in money. i mean, if the problem is that i want peace as much as anyone else, i really do. but how do you talk to people like that? say, there aren't any russians speakers and ukraine? it's absurd, nikolai. i agree with all the points made. and yet the outcome inevitably is to say

mainly that any goshen settlement will have to be reached. oh, that doesn't mean that one side or the other cool doesn't claim victory. in fact, the victory is most likely to go to russia, which means that the terms of settlement will be defined largely by russia, but never the less a settlement it'll be and it'll be a negotiated settlement with who uh, that's a matter that will no doubt of evolved over time, whether zalinski is that person looks increasingly, but this is purely speculation that it might not be wicked speculate endlessly about who is replaced by might be it's likely that a successes to zalinski will do exactly with zelinski did to put our friend go and bought a friend could do to his predecessor, which was, which is to run out of the beast candidate. now at that point, uh uh,

russia will still have to negotiate with terms of its settlement, assuming its victorious. and there will be, uh, some sort of adaptations. and some sort of a queen pro, quote, in order to achieve rushes, security objective, that the important thing that is by far the most important thing is go back to gilbert in, in, in brussels, washington for us to go to the table right now. why? why? okay, because you know what restaurant is not interested in the go shading minutes 3. okay. so, and that's the west is always going to do that. nato is always going to do that by time until they could do it again. go ahead gilbert, but 1st i'd like to ask, what do we mean by russia? and here are the contributors. on englewood, i think my colleague, nikolai will, will find attractive. that is taking a lesson from literature and from, from the arts. the literature that i wanted to bring in,

it's not great classics but russian classics to be precise laptops to like the warranties. just total pro was the pro largest, maybe a 100 pages long. and it deals with the question this very topical today. and it has to do with, with the very question you posed, peter, that is, who runs the show. is it the great man in history, readers who are making decisions that doesn't have great consequences for their countries in the world? or are they the, the, the expression, the implement, the tool my one might say of the national will. and here it says in the, in the west, it's assuming that russert means one man pushing the. busy know he's a tech date or we don't know the dictators control everything that a 145000000 people under them to a cellphone. that is a class with nonsense, but it's the kind of fairy tale that is the mainstream understanding of how the world works. it doesn't work that way and russia and it does anywhere. mr. pushing

is did. in many respects, i helped formulate a russian policy, but he also was an expression of the role of the people and the role of the people today and russian. by that, i mean primarily the, the, the leads is very much against sitting down to table with anyone coming from from kids. because they, there is a, the, the quick question applies to to kids who runs the show. i don't think anyone believes that the landscape runs the show or the sub usually would run the show or the restore, which wouldn't put rent would or so would would one the show. there is a group, a creek called of neo nazis, and the label isn't important. but there is a clique of people who for who, who are responsible for the quarter to february 2014, who are still calling the shots. and that's the issue for russia. how those people

can be removed from power if there is to be a negotiated settlement. but let's take a step back. negotiated settlement, why it is, even on the bill. the article was last friday, which, which was discussing a secret agreement between biting and shows that they would cut back on arms deliveries to ukraine and try to pressure mr. zalinski to that, to go to his people and to call for the well i'm but i'm sorry, i'm sorry gilbert. i'm sorry gilbert that that's his kabuki theater. i mean, um, bite and can call is it lensky right now? we've got a nickel. i call them right now and tell them what to do. i mean, i, i get and you know, nothing about ukraine without ukraine. this is all nonsense. it's, it's nonsense. go ahead. nikolai, as we can rely on all leaders, including the cranial leaders to struggle for their own personal survival share and their own interests. one of the leading opposition papers

now managed outside of ukraine. but why is the red still in ukraine is argued or pointed out. i should say that there had been a, there's been a great empower ization of ukraine. but at the very top's, people have managed very well and, and indeed are making money hand over fist through the system of brian. all right, well the way that i want to go, i want to, i want to do with corrupt and after our break here, we're gonna have to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on your current state without the the

hi, i'm receptive and i'm here to plan with you whatever you do. do not watch my new show . seriously. why watch something that's so different. opinions that he won't get anywhere else. welcome to please or do the have the state department c i a weapons, bankers, multi 1000000000 dollar corporations. choose your fax for you. go ahead. change and whatever you do. don't want my show state main street because i'm probably going to

make you, i'm comfortable. my show is called stretching time. but again, it's not. we don't want to watch it because it might just change the way and say welcome back across stock. we're all things to consider 9 peter to about your mind you were discussing. you train the . let's go back to nikolai and kingston. i'm like, let's finish up on this point on corruption because this is something that, you know, in the very beginning i war and very, very clearly this is, you know, you're only making it worse, the corruption in ukraine and it was very bad. and, but prior to the conflict that was, that was a talking point. ukraine's one of the most corrupt countries in the world. and then for about a year, you couldn't say it and then suddenly could start saying and because they really weren't getting their money is worth meaning the,

the tax payers in the west here. um there's going to be a reckoning with that. i mean, i've often surmised that even if there is a settlement, there's going to be a lot of people being held account or should be held accounting ukraine. where does that all that money actually go? well, we'll probably never know for sure, since even the pentagon can't do them, they can't even do an audit for ourselves here. but i did want to get to the, to reiterate the point that there will be negotiations between moscow and ukraine for any settlement of this war, for any ceasefire, for any armistice. any step along the way will require negotiations. and i have little doubt that people will step forward whether they want to or not, whether simply because the field of people above them has been abandoned and

everyone else has less than they are, the only ones left to hold the bag. nevertheless, there will be people with whom these negotiations will be undertaken. of course, they will be in a week or position because they will, to the extent that they're interested in reaching any accord with russia. they will be abandoned by the west. and as a result, they will have little choice, but to concede to russia's demands my warning, however, drew rushes that we all have something to lose here. okay. it is quite possible that russia will push too far demand too much me for even too quickly into territories that it really does not want in your brain. and therefore opening its up itself up to counter strikes and moves and more military stalemate. so there's danger on all sides to be aware of. that's such a good point in. um i think i'm pretty sure both of you read an article written by

john mearsheimer recently and then he comes. so what kind of settlement will it be? well, he believes that like we all do, that russia is going to win, but it will be an ugly piece, which i thought was a very interesting way of describing it. gilbert, i don't, i don't think that a rush. it has maximal as views here. of the split, the word has already been mentioned on this program, it will solve a lot of problems. finally take seriously rushes, security demands the rest of it. believe it or not, can be a detail, just details, but brush who wants it, security respects it. and i think from that point it things could actually um, and reasonably easily, and magnanimously gilbert the 4 times back, none of the slaves they would have to the people up to us on the green and on the us side to it. and i don't see it so much people exist, but i didn't get a chance to quite finish the remark about the build article. the they have agreed

that if you create and cannot hold up consent and entrance negotiations, then they would be content with a frozen construct. the idea of approaching conflict has been floated united states repeatedly over the last month or 2 and it so, and it's dealt with is if it's a natural thing to happen because we all know that they are at an impasse and that's no one has won the war, well that observation is strictly one of the of the washington line. it doesn't covers fun to reality on the ground and it has the needs that are behind it. the concept, what's words about which is no way to take someone took out rushes own definition of the subject is not america's definition of what is subjective, should be its own definition of objectives or should destroy the opinion on forces and not to seize territory. this is not a territorial war from the russian perspective. and from their perspective, they are winning the wonderful because they are in fact destroying demand power

reserves of ukrainian army. so they would be content i believe, with a frozen conflict, but not the that's not, that's a point. good washington thinks it will take. the frozen conflict from the musket perspective would be one in which russia takes a guess. a moves up to tries ministry and closes the ukraine from the black sea essentially leaving the country a handicapped. it's not a failed space to fall into the hands of d. u, and to be massively subsidized forever by the you that would suit russia find. the main issue, as you have said repeatedly, is that the russian security and that will depend not on assigned the street is simple, depend on the facts on the grounds that's ukraine's borders. a sufficiently far that ukraine's military potential is sufficiently handicapped is that the west is perfectly understanding the attempt to install the missiles and other other

military equipment threatening the russia will be made with the response that is devastating, perhaps not just on ukrainian territory, but back in germany or whatever else this equipment is coming from. so russia will look after its own security. it doesn't need a security guaranteed uh from the united states. so you, you to protect itself. well, i mean, well, well, you know, you in security doesn't happen in a vacuum, and this segue is perfectly to where i want it to go. nikolai has the 3 of us like very rationally and i think, compassionately. and will all of us want this to come to an end, they stop the killing. but you know, we have um, next year, the 75th anniversary of nato. okay. and they're coming up with, you know, little magical ideas, how they kind of twist and turn. and you know, we can slip them in this way. slip them in that way. i mean, it's quite grotesque. okay. because the even stilton bird that the secretary

generally has admitted off the counselor by mistake. i don't know that yes, nato expansion was the origins of this conflict. but they're still talking about nato expansion. i mean, what, what, where do these people come from and what do they want to achieve? well, nato has the purpose of expanding nato. okay, okay, there you go. that's their, that's their mission, right? yes. okay, well it's just, it suffices for survival and funding but i think of a rump ukrainian stage without an outlet to the black sea would leave a territory that is sizable attached to nato. and that wouldn't be rambunctious in nature. and that wouldn't be dangerous to

russia in perpetuity. it's one of the reasons when 196016, why prime minister of the law of a said we should not annex volusia in, in a memo to sar nicholas the 2nd. because we would not gain anything from it. and when the wisest things i've read is that russia has no interest culturally historically. or in terms of security a to amex regions that do not want to be part of it or could not reason a reasonable amount of time be pacified and, and, and with the majority would not be comfortable being part of russia. and i'm afraid that much of western and even now central ukraine falls into the category that territory and its relationship to russia. add to the, the end to europe. that still has to be negotiated. and that is, in fact,

the central point that will have to be negotiated in the, in the larger uh, pine europe and security arrangement, which should be at this point already. insight as part of our objectives. well, what we just heard from nick, like it is possible, but if that's the goal that they want to achieve a well, i got a i, i differ slightly with you, but i think at the end of the day rush, it has that security interest at heart that's it's number one issue here. how that is translated into policy and dealing with the neighborhood can go in different directions here. but i mean, i'm not sure nato is interested in security in europe the. and now the difference is now, is that russia is the official enemy, remember they? oh, where does a defensive alliance watches bottom? you know, our enemy hold all that is changed right now. and rush. it has to keep an eye on nato, considering it's already expanded during this conflict. go ahead gilbert. the most expensive nature that we've seen since the admission of the bowls exchange has

been counter productive and the for the security of europe. i think that my, i used to correspond very closely with steve cohen and he was saying that nato is not a fraternity club, but the university is the idea of admitting new members should be conditions on one question. will this increase or decrease the security of the existing members? that is passively clear to just if we became a actionable only several years after the fact that emitting the baltic states was a big negative for security of the existing members. okay, so is true or for admitting of finland, but as 1200 kilometer long border this to be defended by a population of 9000000. it's absurd, it can only be a detract, detract from the security of europe. now, i don't think the russians would be to put out if the display to them brought into

it a rug. uh ukraine. that is some distance from, from where you're creating and borders were. yeah, before oldest this war began in the, the fact that that brussels would be controlling the other was insane. people running ukraine has preventing them from, of triggering a pan. you repeat, and it's not global war. but i think that in itself would be positive, but only after ukraine has been so reduced in size, as in population, that's and removed had a greater distance from, from russia's borders. stay under those conditions. i think russia could live with, hey, natal member, ukraine. whether you needed the, whether the national members fall live with me, it's all the risk is then let me add less than 30 seconds to a nickel. i. what can we react to what we just heard from gilbert 30 seconds. go ahead. i mean,

i think that effectively transforms billable into the bumper state. the rush is looking for what i don't need to keep going. i, i, i just think it, it closes some problems, body raises others. and all of these issues is really what we need is advance of leaving us. we need to, we need another helsinki process. okay, that's, that's what we really need right now. rapidly, i'm running out of time. i want to remind our viewers. nicolai's a s a is what's next for ukraine, the outlines for a peaceful settlement. you can find it at anti war dot com. it's all the time we have a when i think my guess in brussels and it takes and, and of course i want to take our viewers for watching us here at r t c. and next time and remember prospect the the

show they just don't have to shape house because the engagement equals the trail. when so many find themselves will to parts we choose to look so common ground the the

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