the hobbit kennedy school is credited within venting the time. soft power is a just book and a life in the american century is like a who's who of level security power is he shots? his rise to become charity usa is national security council. the assistant secretary at the pentagon, he joins me now from cambridge, massachusetts. thank you so much for of us and i for coming on before we get to the book, i suppose i better off give a briefly about who you think would win a wall with a ron, given that the debate right around the world. and obviously, especially here in the middle east. well, it depends what one means by winning a war. and i think you'd find broad losses on both sides, but american power versus a rating and power. and the simple term, it's not a question, but who will pay what cost is a more difficult customer to figure out? and people are suddenly looking to buy the administration to understand that costs daily you. uh,

you helped expand the harvard kennedy school. clearly from this book you show how you worked on that but is, and then i have to say some of the donors are associated with a back end. israel, israel soft power gone. now these pictures are beaming all around the world, let alone the us as of power given to the entire international community is watching as the nature of powers back in um, to the teeth, the this alleged and the side as well. i wouldn't say it's gone uh, but it has been dated or damaged. um oh, i think one of the dangers is uh, it was defense. secretary lloyd austin, put it uh you can win a battle and lose a war. and now there are some of the terms of tactical successes of these early. so have demonstrated that they have a good deal of capability. but in terms of the soft

r and the ability to attract others, i think the disproportionate number of casualties and gaza has indeed damaged their soft power and washington's soft power in recent years let alone the gaza as well as if it did again. i, i think the american sauce power has been damaged by the disproportionate, the killing of civilians in the cause of war. uh, biden is plead for the israel east is take a more measured approach, but it, there still damage to americans. sauce power. on the other hand, if you look at americans soft power over the years, it goes up and down. i mean, sauce power is the ability to get what you want through attraction, rose and coercion or payment. and there are times in the past where americans,

soft power has been very badly damaged. for example, in the 19 sixty's, there were protests around the world against the vietnam war, but by the 1980 is the american position where they had recovered. similarly, i think you see americans soft power damage uh after the rock and taishan. uh, but then when obama selected it recovers its damaged again by trump recover somewhat with bite. and uh, so the, the in this can be ascertained by the public opinion polls. the problem truss trump is the jumps reading and those opinion polls right now. looks like no, no i, i, yeah, no i, that's a question of will it be come back. and if he does that would have a severe negative effect on american soft power. but i meant if you,

if you look at public opinion polls that a company like pew has done asking people, i hate to 27 different countries, whether they've found america or china more attractive. basically the americans come out ahead, i think good a is 25 of the 27 countries. so american soft power goes up and down. it could be dented. on the other hand, in comparative terms, is still relatively strong. yeah, paradoxically, that same view. paul also said the united states was a big threat. they so the us is a threat of i understand, i mean, you wrote in 2015 that book global futures is the american century over and you were quite sanguine. you were looking at the idea that actually you look at history and you see people for how to print materially predict the end of american. uh oh, sorry, any m ha, whether it be british or any, any of you don't think you're gonna have to revise that off to ukraine. not after

you create. i think i revise the different trump is the lift gate in november. i think he will do see here, damage to american power, but remember that a lot of a countries sauce power to attractiveness comes from it. civil society not just from is government. government does broadcasting and has policies and those can affect it to attractiveness. but um, if a country has a vibrant civil society that attracts others, it's better able to recover. i think back to give me the hard hollywood in science of ours, hollywood in the science, but also things like the civil rights movement in the, in the sixty's. people were marching in the streets around the world to protest

american government policy in see it, but they weren't seemingly communist international. they were singing martin luther king's, we shall ever. com, which is an anthem from the american civil society. so i think in the, in that sense of asking is there resilience and terms of ability recover? i think there's still a good deal resilience in american civil society. maybe because vietnam speech wasn't broke, as is why these guy ever dream is to be true. no, no is go back to this new book. you knew stanley johnson, he was a regular on this program at all oxford. and you say in the book you had shocked his son became prime minister. what do you make of the evidence that suggests he was sent to destroy a negotiated ukraine piece made in turkey? i just, i just don't have any evidence or the answers. i don't know that i shouldn't speculate what i would. i really agree. yeah, but i mean having said that in the actual book when it comes to the ukraine,

and i mentioned this because clearly us sanctions have ad. well, the, the opposite effect. they've the west and the economies west and your of the global south is a clearly ignoring nature, western europe and the united states views on, on what happened in ukraine. but in your book on page 345, i think you say at a meeting at the kennedy school in 2014 economist, eagle, you against the wall inclusion was disillusioned by the west. well, how is the 2014 made then? qu wasn't when we had victoria newland and the league phone call saying she was picking up who is going to run the run the country. i'm just surprised about how you couple of ukraine and this latest bully. you said. $34.00, supposed to be $47.00 put in that agreed to receive virus thoughts named the minutes process, but it was not clear whether it would be worth much as we found in 2022. you know

that that means the process is unanimously adopt as un security council resolution 2202. but it didn't prevent the russian storm invading ukraine and trying to, to essentially take over the country of people say this as a result of the americans expanding data or not to conciliate, improved adequately. it's important to read what read of broke about ukraine in before he dated in 2021. he basically doesn't accept to crane is legitimate, independent state. and he talks about ru skeet mirror the russian world. and ukraine is part of that, and he will control it. and i, it's so in that sense, whatever the merits and the merits of a 2014 and the russian invitation to the don boss and quite a bit,

then i think it had more roots in what was going on in keys in the efforts to a of a popular demonstration to get rid of a repressive a government, then it did who is with pressure blood pressure. so it is a threat and inflated. and then the mr process suggested that that could be a point of stability. russia taking what it already had. but in the february of 22, who decided he wanted more and evaded the and that's, i am going to just the drew up there. that's not really the case. is it? you have a picture of yourself with the i can give them a call. you have a picture with bank of america in the new book don't here. and you know what i'm going to, michael said, yes. he said that the mintz process was a delaying tactic. so nato could, um, ukraine, this is about nato expansion is

a and i mean, on the food in point about the way to ukraine, that's what the debates it is, or whether that's boots in decrying these deals. you know, i think if you look back, you'll see that there was a pretty broad consensus and you have and they to countries that ukraine was not about to be accepted into data. 2008. there was a question of ukraine joining nato. i think that was the other european countries, like britain and france and others were not the would not have allowed that of. and i think the prove this invasion was a threat to a software country in the countries of the so called global south. or realize that the un charter, which protects countries against the kind of invasion that russia had,

is in their interest made to see this simply as a european conflict, is a great mistake in canyon delegation to the united states got this right. quite soon afterwards, they said this is a problem for all of us by population that general assembly resolution, because i didn't get them. majority is that those who favored russians viewing these things and it said, immediately afterwards, there was sanctions on the russian composes in new york. ballet stores russian literature in the western europe. you think they read your work on soft power and took a do far with the, with the bizarre, the process of banding all things russian in nato countries. well, i think the idea of going on with business as usual with russia after russia violated

are the basic norms of the international system that you don't take your neighbors territory by force was an appropriate way of saying suddenly that this behavior was unacceptable. i think if you look at the details, you'll see that some russian artist and composers and so forth who were willing to distance themselves from nyman check off ski and bush given dusty epsky. no, no, i'm talking about temporaries that uh, so there were some artist who said we don't support that. they were a continued to be in the repertoire. but uh, i mean, you seem to be acting as so or asking questions is so is not guilty of a basic violation of a critical norm since 1945. and i think you're just wrong. professor joseph nile,

stop you that more from the former dean of the harvard kennedy school in order to have the new book of life in the american century after this by the the

the welcome back to going on the right. and i'm still here with professor joseph 9 for medina, the harvard kennedy school, and also of the new book i live in the american century. present i, we ended pop one talking about the norms established up to 1945. of course, the russians would say, and i think they are, i've been saying that the world going that they were trying to protect russian speakers in the east and ukraine, but on the broad a point. and even the pressure was in the wrong 2 wrongs wouldn't make a right. your book is full of your new book of uh, of, of, in the sidelines violations of those norm. since 1945, i want to, i mean, clearly at all we was, i mean, you go all the way back to vietnam, but the so many violations of any kind of know that any, uh, any, uh, no line country would recognize as being in the you and try to would need right now

the united states is backing the alleged genocide in guys there in israel set and these and acting in any norm establish often 9045 and is indeed in violation of course have so many resolutions as indeed there has been violations, but notice that in a book like mine, a life and the american sentry published in the united states, i am able to criticize american violations such as the invasion of iraq in russia. i couldn't do that. and uh, indeed that being the case is of the fact that them, john lives in nato countries are not able to report and joins are allowed from west and media into russia. but you actually speaking about freedom, you speak, you know, mentioned julian, it's on, you mentioned edward snowden in your book, were you shocked by the revelations that i'm going to, michael? as i said, the picture of you and her in the new book that the national security operators in your country was bugging the chancellor of yours was powerful economy. well,

i think that was a mistake and i think it's pretty why did recognize now, but it has nothing to do with my reading anglo american will add a harvard commencement ceremony, but us surprised that that was going on. yeah, i thought that i thought the that the, uh, the people in the, in a say, what does that have more sense than to do that? because it is surprising, given, you invented the terms of how you're credited with that. you know, mentioned julie and assigned you of course, there's a case coming up at the end of february now and he, he exposed so many details of as you would put it, violations of any known since 1945 and, and all that information is there on the internet for the whole global is out to watch. it has huge soft power like the same as video of the john was being gunned down the rock as well. i means i don't mention julian. massage there. many others

don't mention on both sides. you've met the issues of the editor, took out a lot of material from the book and wanted to keep it short. so i to 0 to the question to julian and san shopping in the index. it's kind of irrelevant. i only just man mention it because you mentioned freedom and the freedom to expose more crimes. and in the, in this case, a salt and but said the other day that they have little money wasn't given to the landscape view, nato couldn't get to china. well, what do you think he meant by that? especially in the light of a work you've done, which doesn't seem to show any desire by china. and you met many of our officials over decades to invade weston, to you who are a well it, it, a she g ping has said that he liked the people's liberation

army to be able to re capture type one, which they regardless renegade province by 2027, and many people who feared that china would indeed tried to use force to a unified tie one with china. and after the failure of who is invasion in ukraine, many people in china and able to reach you at the station region said this shows that the type of vision that people are feeling on taiwan would be too risky to experience it. if putting sale with the land based evasion are certainly right. thank store this trying to go a 100 miles over the sea with a sea based conviction is

a much higher risk stand if she paint cares more than anything else about his control, the communist party and the company as far as control of china. a failed invasion of taiwan. this is the biggest risk you could take face. so i think that's the type of thinking was i don't know what store america had in mind, but that's the kind of thinking people say that the, what happens in your grade also has an effect on what risks are taken in east asia . i want to go back to china, but you mentioned failure rusher categories of hasn't failed. it has killed loads of nazis and so on. and i mean, this is the financial times this week. i am after double as rush has growth up. look, as ukraine was, stimulates economy, i would put in russia to rise impact of western sanctions and banks, post ridgewood prophets. so from russia's perspective, they've strengthened the brick since china. i cooperation,

organization of strength and ties with china and the global south countries, and their economy is booming, while western europe's is declining. how is russia losing? well, i think if, if you look at the sanctions, they have a b, a take different effect on different periods and turn time, the mediator affective sections after the evasion or a drop in the value of russian stocks, you know, for the rouble and so forth. and then you have the sanctions have the effective what you might call into the industry turf. they lead to production at home of the goods that are deprived from abroad. and i run russia benefited from that in the woods when i called the medium term, as well as the tech support. so boil, which remained in demand. and then a question for russia and for others is what happens over the long run in the user

or media gone? it's true that the pressure has had certain benefits strongly into an industry terrace, affects the long run their to private and themselves from sources of technology in europe, which are going to be a central for their accomplishing what they need to do, which was drawing the 4th industrial resolution, if you look at question, today's 2 thirds of its exports are in oil and gas, and it has not made the kinds of kind of ations that are needed to really join the information revolution. question, i think the russians have to ask themselves is if they stay isolated from europe and america, are they going to have to pay it is good to technological future. you can say, well, they'll get that from china, but then they're in the past. so becoming a, uh,

like a satellite of china. my understanding is, yeah, the scholarly papers are now being published increasingly and in bricks, countries over western europe. and as i said, west and your economically seems the why the seem to be in, in decline. you do say in the book that it was wrong of uh, a bama to put a red line on chemical weapons in syria. but now we have so much more information about whether i side actually use chemical weapons. why in your book, are you saying absolutely he did use chemical weapons when that account is being developed by so many, including the o, b, c, w whistle, the weapon section in the air. it's not at the bucking, but there's evidence that the assad did indeed use chemical weapons. so i don't know what you're talking about to you have never heard any of the evidence. i mean

there the so much being written at this moment and you say definitely the biggest problem was syria way better as it is, use chemical weapons. when, when that that's a lot to think big for pockets. you can find a lot of arguments on the internet about anything but to the preponderance of evidence from reliable sources is that aside did the jewish chemical weapons. and if you don't believe that, what's the matter with the sources of information you're getting? yeah, i look at all, all the different sources and not just sources that are, say, nature of nation publications. you say the presidential briefing that's given to joe biden, every day. you talk about how a lot of it could just be in the, in the mainstream, in the new york times, or something that is given to the president and how important uh, information uh,

is in the public realm. and there's not that much extra in the in tell you suggest in the book as well as didn't to give you an example of what's called open source and intelligence, meaning what's in the press, what's on the internet. so for i is very important part of what should be in that briefing uh notches secrets and uh, in an information age open source is becoming more, more important. and in that open source intelligence, as well as secret intelligence. there's evidence by the international chemical weapons association, which of unit that comes under the united nations. the other side used chemical weapons. yeah, actually i meant the o, b c, w whistle that has come forward since then. but what about the dangers of a feedback loop? and if things are being leaked to john, listen so cool, mainstream newspapers then that's being fed back to president bible. there's just

a feedback loop being created. that doesn't allow other pieces of information to come in, like say a zalinski has no hope of this calendar offensive, or i said, we'll stay in power despite the american bombing of damascus. well, good intelligence presents alternatives, and the alternatives can do the price. and then the alternate names should essentially ask what's in the open source, what's in the secret sources, and how do you weigh them in terms of the profit abilities of the alternative explanations and scenarios of in net sites. the open source helps you with beating the, the mainstream press. how to check against some of those things that are in your secret sources. but not if uh, if i know you quote uh chomsky in your 2015 book. if uh,

if the drums get an idea about manufacturing consent to holds true just before finally, if trump forgets in which he looks at to get in, whether it's from jail or whatever, he suddenly writing i, in the, in the american people want them to be president going to opinion both of you expect them to and they to and what does that mean for the united states as well? first i think it's not at all. clearly, trump is going to get in the polls that one sees at this time are to some extent, not a good indication of the outcomes november. most people don't really pay attention to elections until after labor day, which is in september. so i don't, i don't think that some of these early polls are, are accurate in terms of assessing whether trump or buying when and in the november it's, i don't think the trump is go to come back. but if i'm wrong and trump does come

back to, i think it will have a negative effect on american alliances and american sauce power in like manner include, we can you give nate to bassinet has passed a resolution saying that trump or any president cannot withdraw from data without consent of the senate, but he could simply refuse to to spend money. which was it is within his progress with that of course would have a severe damage present. i thank you. thank you. and that's it for the show of continued condolences to those surviving beginning in gaza. the new book, a life in the american century, is out now will be back on monday, with a former leading contender to be president of ecuador, now supporting his reyland, sending weapons to the laskey in ukraine, after betraying julia. so i'm just political asylum until then. keep in touch by role that social media of it sort sense of deal country and have to our channel

going on the going to be a normal. don't come to watch. new and old episodes of going underground see monday, [000:00:00;00] the the mainland mazda awards the cop, parsley via steel. i hit the pole, i start to finish it. i need to know what i want to focus on. while i me on the floor plan is on the by the board there and said to me, but i don't blame you to say,

but it almost dawn case studies say to me if there's only one more mission dealt mentioned. so it's easy. so it doesn't take it for the same place to get pregnant, it'll become a scene. i'm okay. and then would the time to event that since this was the way we used to do it for you not to solve up the way, what's all about the email, but i'll show you have several of them we'll actually be, is the i have to guess the president savanski himself is basically do you know that he has become drunk with his own rhetoric as well as flats or visa to use to receives from the rest? i think this has made it arranged to me that it's a bit disrupt his relationship. the reality is true about everyone around 2 icons. imagine

the in a little gas for public, the city of list, the child comes onto the trade in the fire, at least 8 civilians, a dead 10. the wounded in $23.00 more of fear to be stopped. on the ramos, the of the dreadful people i killed as us or it strikes rain down on targets across syria and you rock. but you use the situation that the lease is at a tipping point to meet the lease is a point that they've got it that can see the effects. any dog i'd like to read see, is a domino