governments will relinquish the power and handle control over the dump it to the w h. o. but there were some stiff resistance against it, which the w. h o labels as fake news lies and conspiracy theories. make sure you question with us here at our seats in the the, [000:00:00;00] the

welcome to was a part. the phone land called history, a stable agreed upon. a centrally to winston churchill asserted that it was written by the victors. but this is both of them agreed that it's the battlefield developments that shaped the narrative on the other way around by throwing the media and military support behind the war effort in your brain. western leaders attempted to secure the right side of history and the victory that goes with it. without even fighting directly in the war. are they likely to succeed of, to discuss that amount join, but to re serial armoire, associate professor at the courts university in disassembled. professor amar, it's great to talk to. thank you very much for your time. thank somebody. now we are now approaching the 2nd anniversary of the russian military operation in the ukraine. and you wrote recently the tone of western discussions on the possible

outcomes or the possible progress of this conflict has started to change in what way. and what do you think is behind a change? i think it's clear that i'm be now see, much more from acknowledgement of the fact that russia is making progress. but if you want to put advice strongly, i think some people are even beginning to be honest enough. for instance, they're starting to focus on visiting it that it to say it's a few crane is those things are more. yes, i agree with the 3 are hearing some voices of caution, but i think for the most part, the american uh end of ukrainian leadership for sure. a still a speaking in favor of continuing this conflict until and ukraine regains its former territories or as they like to put it on to put in is defeated. do you think either side believes that they can achieve that goal in objective terms? i mean, then logistical terms, do they have enough resources to get there regarding the ukrainian leadership?

i wouldn't be able to to, i have to guess that the president savanski himself is basically diversion. and that he has become drunk on his own rhetoric as well as the flats are being set to use to receive from the rest. i think this has made it to range to minutes of it and disturb transportation. i'm trip to reality is to about everyone around to him . i can't imagine that. so the appropriate people in ukraine will also have a better grasp for entities and he does, but they can't speak up yet. right now concerning the best. my guess is that quite a few people in washington and in the us way, i understand that they have to get out of this more before out of us can defeat. now, do they understand already how much they are going to have to concede? again, i come to fun thing that i think is behind this ongoing talk about the, the step continue supporting and so on and so on about 20 flow or even 25 being

madison. i do think it's partly in negotiating tactic to essentially and not shows of us inside weakness and montana sort of flip level against russia. basically saying, we are ready to be due for the if we have to do, if we lose more as well as your bus even comes up with some of these paper, i'm sure, but now is a bargaining chip. you know, when i read the western and russian analysis of, of this conflict there, sometimes you get a sound that russian ukraine and your brain supported by the west. they are not only fighting totally different wars, but they are sort of leave in very different centuries that they use very different frames of reality for analyzing what's happening on the battlefield. and what's necessary to keep this war going because you mentioned bleeding an adversary. this is something that just doesn't happen just in words. i mean here you need the

resources unit to strategy. in order to do that, i wonder if your share this perception and if so, why do you seeing what do you think explains this huge difference in assessment because after all, military signs is, is a science and the, some of the generals who are making the decisions they're still, they shouldn't be basing it on some objective facts and measures in terms of the american leadership and especially was quote, the washing blog. so people said public and government parties think things, project other offices, and hopefully get it together somehow. do find american phone policy. i don't think they live in another. essentially i, i think they live in another decatur is actually both. they live from the 1990s. they have come to be explicit about the fact at least the smartest of them, that the moment of so called unilateralism has passed. but if you look at the way they actually behave, they don't display any change of behavior and that's, that makes them so rational, right?

now, the latter point is, i think that, remember that the bins, a large scale was started. a lot of less than projections into you came out with instance uncles, i'm acrobats and insect things like that. the russian president thought he might put into the lives in a different sense for me he lives in the past. i think that's a fundamental misunderstanding, and i wouldn't make this personal. i think that investment leadership extra lives very much as a present as to, as the chinese leadership. absolutely divani and, and many other powers of the present use this x. so the is the best for collective with the americans for their own reasons. and us, where are we essentially refusing to drones have tried to for a century. they do not want to make a transition to award and reach the power to be of the deals and in which they really have to live with a much greater number of subs, significant accidents, but they cannot control what i'll control think what in part of explains this

difference in perspectives is the realist versus ideal as the framework because both china and russia practice reality to take the 3 out, you know, being rude to the actually in reality, you know, then what you want to have, but rather what you can practically achievement. i have a question about that because the rush is military and diplomatic strategy over the centuries has been favoring a circle, positional approach that is playing as number 2 or with the black segers in. and she has and the hallmark of the strategy is that it doesn't produce spectacular results, but it's very mindful about accumulation and spending of their resources, both the manpower and the weaponry and essentially, you know, makes a bad on exhausting the adversary before. that's adversary exhaust fuel. do you think that's what's going on on the battlefield at this very moment, the long battle that the russia is digging?

if hill's ho hoping to exhaust not only it's adversary across the border, but perhaps it's adversary across the ocean as well. i think it's clear that the person who's managing has managed to exhaust ukraine. now that isn't such a big surprise if you're honest, because most of it is demographically, a must be the country and nobody and much has started. this is from the army also the used surprising the little of it initially. but the other thing i think to have survived that's also happening and this is going back to house of us, responded. it is the most, it is now also exhausting the west and you see it the ends of laser west from ons production. for example, the simply cannot catch up, although they have declared that a several times and they're still declaring it. but this seems to be a fundamental problem, i think what's underneath on us. and it says that the best doesn't have states that have strong enough. and also it has such a financial lies virtual allies, the economy. that when it came to the crumbs to actually get stretched,

or we just go in and makes things big experience, astonishing difficulties this because it's furnishing difficulties. let me add one thing. i think that would be a bad mistake to on the as to it, the west eyes, because that coupon thing of the view, the rest is finding a proxy ball. here. it's a catastrophe. it shall never have happened. it's syndicate, it's hard, but, but it is for the best of ones are probably for less so for the europeans, but the americans have decided please. so let's not conclude that if the westberg brought in a large move a conflict, very good. so it's quote, would be spent, is, would you act in the same way that i think would be going to probably don't know that well and hopefully there's a whole not have to learn about it. but the speaking about a traditional westminster strategy, as far as i understand it, or at least as far as it's understood here in russia by military historians, is that the west traditionally favors an offensive,

rather than defensive approach favor and smashing blows. blitzkrieg spectacular victories, but it's also quite costly in that it requires a lot of resources. it requires you to be in charge of the initiative cost monthly and if it's quite exhaustive for sure. um and uh, i wonder if uh, i wonder how do you understand the strategy that both the west and ukraine i'm now trying to execute on the battlefield to hear us into this question because clearly the blitzkrieg, the effort to stifle russell by sections didn't work. what is the strategy that they're pursuing at this moment? but it seems to be a saying that often has finally to been fully acknowledged that the condo offensive of the summer has not worked for legal koreans. the sort of an absorbed blitzkrieg scenario blitz creek with all the necessary resources. right. and it said to take something off. does that has been acknowledged now hoping he is at the info some sort of long, whole,

some defensive operations digging themselves and much more. and in fact copy and so most of us and tactics, right? so i think the problem say is that their faults are exhausted for this to work. this might have been a violent strategy for your client if they have taken it from the beginning. but they have wasted so much different times that was successful in terms of getting territory. but last year and hockey for high schools around target from the park is even with them. they've raised that so much man, power and weapons and ammunition and so on, that they let them substrate. so this, this shift now that be here about 2 defensive strategy. i think it's too late. i think it's tested today. now speaking about the exhaustion that you mentioned, western strategist historically, i think, have been quite instrumental with that allies when an asset, a geopolitical asset,

turns into high ability. the americans usually have little qualms about withdrawing or abandoning it altogether. i think it's happened in clear sight and i've gotten a son in arrived before to some extent in. uh, syria. is it likely to happen in ukraine? i think that is likely to happen if the next president it might happen earlier. if, if there is a southern bus in advance, for instance, but if the next president is donald trump, into the document, behalf of my doesn't quite quickly. and there's some extra does it don't, is again, joe biden, for some reason. i can't really imagine that i think he doesn't stand a chance now. and then i think about also how i think steven board is right about it. he's just publish the piece and phone policy ways. that's the bone 3 months. so for the difference, the reason bye button isn't doing up now is because he still has the electrons that have but yes, the drop you claim this raises another pretty dangerous possibility. because i think there is an additional security advantage to both russia in europe to kim,

this war going at a low to medium intensity because it keeps all the weapons that have been sent to your crime from all over the west. in or around the battle felt like they are sort of concentrated them, they're being used for the war effort. but once that constrain is not there, there is a huge risk of illicit weapons trade. and i'm pretty sure that the russians uh, with the put in vigilant uh, security the apparatus, uh, cognizant about that thread. but do you think your opinion, leaders are equally aware of the, of the blue rang a fact that that's all this weaponized ation of your brain. may bring to their door steps. i don't know, i do so. and it's not on the weapons, right? let's don't forget that, but the rest has done in your brain and it has, as we say, normalize a file, right? is very aggressive. fire, right? there's a stream there militant,

they're both very reluctant before the last it works. and once you're trained to be treated in some ways, essentially, like i've gone to stonewall as far as with my goals treated in that state, right. the ends of him being, i just want to go back and do a finance, maybe angry, not only about the on the, the civically angry this the so called our eyes who have the view stuff. and i think this is what the rest has done to them. they've also still be angry before us or for very long time. i think they shouldn't have any of those. and so frustrated as i've told the enemy eligible, but they're going to be right in groups of us just uh well, uh, professor and our we have to take a very short break right now, but we will be back in just a few moments station. the number you need,

your visa typically from here sent to nancy kims in the book then actually should see where it gets to that. the only issue okay, is jeans, nathaniel. so who's going to the boys at the boys? the, the name that will be put on my trip to florida doesn't want that extra them for the that

the welcome back to when support with to the serial amar associate professor at the courts university in symbol. now, professor armoire, the most painful thing about this more for me at least, and i have and ukraine inherent that is that it certainly didn't have to happen at least not for the direct participants. because i, i strongly believe that russia and ukraine could have settled their insecure, which is under interest in it, and negotiate a peaceful manner. they were all the objective preconditions for that. there were even talks in inter came the beginning of this conflict, rent, everything was possible, and yet uh, the war efforts continued. because at least i believe that to be the case because of the interest of the west and sponsors of this, of this conflict. and this is what i want to ask you about. do you agree with that? and if so,

what do you think is the primary objective of the west in this war hasn't been satisfied so far as i did agree, i think the roots of the board really a good back to 2008 the infamous bucharest summit. when goes georgia and ukraine booklets by the west dentist and same position of the same one that you're going to be in natal. but not now, which of course expose them and made sense to that's for russia and phones that it's sort of spawn itself out. and by the time you go to the 201314 prizes, all of this became very acute for ukraine. them minced along was a smaller agreement by forensics tours of actual text. most definitely a basis for forgetting all those this peaceful. the. it was not only abandoned of a single task that's been going on and also i don't think anybody treatments to day, but i have long come to the conclusion that the best stephanie treated a divorced and so you're cringing dealership, right. so then the negotiations and,

and the list, and then turkey, it be now know that there was a very serious chance of endings of one of them. and that would have saved or spans, you find most of it and it could easily has been done. now by that, the best do all of this. i think for 2 reasons. first of all, it would simply not give up on this idea of expanding nato, which in itself is an insane idea and ukrainian neutrality was much better for the countries than engaging that's as far as promise. and the 2nd thing i think was a long term, ju, political strategy altogether. rational down of taking up out russia has recovered from the 9 to ninety's. people in boston did not want to accept that. that sort of situation for most of us, anomalous usually. vasa isn't that week, so the fact that it came back have to be faxed to them. and instead of integrating this recession of process of which they were born to repeat the street, right,

those of us need us are good sense. they counted it with a blonde policy of trying to take crush that down runaway using to nauseous to make it a much less significant power, honestly says, face estimate was a stronger in effect. i think it fits well into the american strategy that you have been describing in one of your articles. you said that the america, the american leadership historically, has had this unique ability to disturb peace due to uh, it's an extraordinary concentration of economic and military capabilities. but my question to you is, whether, if can actually 5 war real weren't if push comes to shove, the united states has to face russia or china directly north via proxies. but directly, do you think it would be able to stand as ground with its current level of military capacity with its current level off by strategic capacity and with all the other

capabilities that it has, its its disposal for. i to speak to that, i would say, uh if i brought it into my computer. so i was waiting on tests that because the book, the, the last was that americans have actually experienced in the own country, most of the american civil rights. everything has their fault of rules, it's been an offshore balance, so they go to other places and break to them. that's what they do. and usually they do it with an in know, was mandatory super over to over their appointments. so that it's, i'm sorry to use says tom, but usually the execute tucker slips by. and the only thing that gets a little bit of sometimes get rid of the contents and sometimes meeting them at 1st . so is that is big enough to actually push them back, which is happening now because none of this, however, is as painful as a large scale war against p. o competitors, the americans will have to clarify so near your competitor and understand that in certain metrics they can be using that that's the case. but if you really look at

what most i can do, if it's means 5 mountains, you're getting a demonstration of that. it's a pure competitor, and so i, i, i would not try that i would, if, if of us but, but we don't know because my sense is that'd be, cannot rely on american best finality. i think the american leadership is not very low intellectual quality. and again, i don't mean just as an insult. i mean that as a description they, um i stream. yeah, i do apologize. they might do this. i have some dr. natives. they refuse to engage with the reality or support. i can be count on them understanding that such a big war, essentially what would be self destructive for them even before nuclear weapons, even with all those being used. i don't think they can count on that to, to my grid, to regret that is to say the 1st term or this is very serious question. because aaron gans coupled with uh ignorance uh they do produce

a very detrimental results. and you suggested that this declining american empire declining not only in terms of fits and military resources, but as you mentioned in terms of it's called native abilities. and i think we can see it on all levels including presidential. it represents a new challenge for the international system due to both it's of central size and it's somewhat or quite irrational behavior. how do you think this challenge should be or managed in order to on the one hand, minimized is disruptive, deliberately disruptive and seating k of potential or capacity of the united states . but on the other hand, to hopefully encourage washington to act anymore. dishes in life affirming or progress affirming way, ideally by stop deterrence, i think so united states needs to be contained into turret. this is ironic because the united states, of course, sees that serve as

a country that contains into church. it's greatest adverse survey. and so i'm, i'm all as piece of the soviet union until the ground. i think they have long reached the stage of history. the other powerful states, those with nuclear weapons, have to contain deters united states. and they're gonna have to don't, in the very blogs, but precisely because the united states doesn't react to sort of segments anymore. i think it has to be done very, very crudely as a 1st time during the cold war. but this time is the biggest problem. most of what i'm really convinced of this is to united states. that doesn't mean every single, it'd be fine. once the united states becomes a smaller and less aggressive power, quite the opposite by the right mode. for the next, i don't know to k tools. what else? our biggest problem as a state is still not that states. the single biggest problem is this. think of the greatest potential to do an immense on to on of humanity. now, taking advantage of you uh, being a historian i,

i do want to ask you is how much philosophical question about history? because to some extent, the current, the american culture is a stance against history or against the very nature of humanity. they're sort of in a very good at like way they're trying to freeze the moment because supposedly it's so beautiful for them even though i mean if you talk to regular americans, i don't think they would actually agree with that the, that the assessment. but that's, you know, itself is a pre k remarkable. i believe that somebody, a nation, even the most powerful nation can stop the flow of history. you mentioned the soviet union and it's a, you know, it's treated with degrees and the pores in the west. but even the soviet union was based on the idea of development and utopia. and it would just stop in development . but um, you know, the developments known to last, what do you think behind these drives to sort of put an ad to history and to freeze

the historical development of the entire human race at a point that favors and suits the americans. the st. the logic of woods, i think america is actually a very i logical if you want. it's not just the country, it's a sort of civilization. right. and it's not aware of that, right? because for americans, they think ideology is what the service used to have or maybe what most career has knowledge is. if a state is very i don't find your logic or that would be a book that's all laid down. indoctrination will be very much on america's extremely audiological and it is steep in a set of values that do not function but any more. and there's a conflict between these values and the rest or not the photographs, but, but the large part of the, of those other inhabitants of the planet to buy the rest of us. and america, solution to this is to impose insights. and it's very, that's what's called privacy rights. that's why they're on top of american primacy

. america is not yet ready. i, i see very, very little of an awareness of the fact that the united states can be plus plus. and it can be sufficiently powerful under could pick tells us no judgement interest in the voice chat with others were truly different. they don't see the word like that. i, i'm sorry, it's important. so for me, but american who needs see the board as a place, that must be constantly of a shame not only to politically, that's a given, but even to logically so that by changing the book, they make it safe because they have a offline. and this mother then no longer work because the power is declining. and if they fight against this change, then you know, on encourage danger. i think that's where we all want us right. now you mentioned the issue of values and some in russia attribute this american drive to for his history to be loss of the say, crow,

whether in the form of religion or in the form of traditional or collective values that you know and, and this is increasing to towards a very individualistic or i would say narcissistic world view. and there's this idea that there's nothing above man that the ma'am can be fully in control of everything else. and i want to ask you as a he story and not as a person of the face or believe with as a he story. and when you look at the historical process and always continue to do ever and get the sense of the inexplicable of something that is perhaps beyond human control of some patterns that you know, inspire or look, i can tell you. but i'm speaking from the 1st from being the story was very just as a roman catholic and but now i'm relapsed roman catholic, but you never really stop being. but it's impossible. but i do have such a sense and i tell my students about it, and i can give you

a very concrete example. lovely learn about the cold war between say, 4789, and the last century. the more i try, my students is the more it takes to brian intervention for us to still be here. it was such a close one think it was not a very managed event. so at least 3 to 4 weeks to read me. the answer was the price is but it's basically america that didn't stop shooting dope trip up and stuff. each of it right. you can talk to us now. it, i, it's how some of you to easily explain vibrant, didn't buy each other out, or at least stop human civilization. performative fuel, you know, native and freezing somebody goes left, but somehow is as happy of you're going to be that lucky the next time if you keep tempting fate or whatever it is, i don't think this company done for i, but at some point as a spaces we really but have to look it up to. all right, well, i'm the, we have history for that, but history that i think the latest here is,

has been true. the in the west more as material or products in the very consumers way rather than something that you know, needs also to be treated with the degree. all 5 really draw. so dina sounds that you don't temper with it and you try to learn from it. but you don't try to bend that to your to as professor mart this is all we have time for. but thank you very much for the say inspiring conversation, at least towards the echo divine intervention of with north abandon as much less time. thank you very much. thank you, and thank you for watching types of share. again, one was

a part the supervisor right now when i see a 28 civilians including a child, are killed as t of sports is striking. a bakery even though guns republic to moscow browser, a terror attack saying the west is complicity. washington claims it's looking for the escalation on the stability in the middle east, while it rains down fire on 3000 to see targets in yemen. may be a morning, the pa, single president who's hail that the liberation. the icon by the countries knew intuitively the, all right, just off at 6 pm here at most to work in