as an o one powerful individual. unfortunately, in many countries, democracy has been influenced by external. the democratic outcomes had been influenced by external forces and that is dissolved in people losing confidence in the crew, debility of, of evictions. and none of this is a tool participation. the participation of peoples of the voice of the people is very important, but we must be conscious of even if we look at. so that's because they should have that know the way the ways to say to manipulate all relations. what are the, the ways to side to manipulate out economic policy the way they tend to manipulate outside and policy, unfortunately was in africa, we have to be cognizant of that kind of influence. and of course, as one do this, pointed out the even try to undermine the elections in, in the dash you deal with the u. s. was trying to you me to make those elections.

the reason being that's it. the steps, the, another 2 steps, the auditorium. so i would say that's in a free test when we're going to have pets of disturbances. but thoughts i would like to emphasize on is that as we are building towards to democracy, we must gets into attendance as well, of building our own systems that fits look i like deals and local conditions. it must be rationalized. i've stopped it. we'd been so also consider machines are going to come from africa itself. now that prisons allowed them to put in is going for another 10. what do you make all the few to a confirmation between russia and pets, africa, and lots of south africa agenda that the continuing on breaks it? do have an agenda that is going to be a continuing price. yeah. africa. so i means that they've been having to defend key and, and all of those programs and positions that have been taken would be implemented

because as much more cooperation between africa and i showed them before. and, and what we ask you, how are you calling them? is as proff, let's see. they want to also be all the time. and then so that right able then to bring that one through. but also begin to do colonize lessons from the way things that i need. and then not begin to move in that way that would make our interest of africa for faded. we are looking forward to the country nation with regards to developing a multi levels of, of a multi pulse, multi fold. and then also the continued efforts to transform multi latch organizations is very important for us. a r t that com is where you can get for the details of all the stories we're following. now, thanks for watching. i'll see you again, the

hello. i'm into la chan. you're tuned into modus operandi 2 years into the conflict in ukraine. demographers are reading the alarms about the dwindling population numbers in the country. you might think this is all due to the war, but actually the details of the real causes might shock you. but we'll break it all down for you next. all right, let's get into the m o. the . it's a grim future for ukraine is hundreds of thousands of men have died along the front . but that's actually just one small factor in the dwindling population of the country once labeled. europe's most corrupt. a year prior to february 2022. the un issued a report about a population bussed in ukraine due to things like poverty on healthy lifestyles.

emigration an infertility. in short, even prior to the conflict, ukraine was already suffering from an aging population on one end. and not enough young people on the other to properly sustain and develop their country ad in the front line depths, and survivors who will frequently continue to live out the rest of their lives with severe disabilities. the grim 2021 you one report is actually now a best case scenario. joining us to way in this is mark sl boda. he is an international relations and security analyst. he's a former u. s. navy nuclear, engineer and host of the real politic with marks logo, which you can find on youtube, sub stack and telegram mark, great to see you. so 1st mark, we saw this pre war un 2021 report summary about ukraine's population

dynamics. they certainly painted a grim future for ukraine. i'm paraphrasing here, but in a fact, they say ukraine was already among the fastest shrinking populations on earth pre war. and that their numbers would hit this unsustainable 35000000 by the year 2050 . but again, this was a full year before the russian special military operation. there are a ton of factors that play, of course, for population dynamics. but how do you think the war itself will re shape ukraine's numbers? and um, well, the war is going to have a lot of affects in a lot of different ways. none of them that are good for ukraine's demographics and you cranes. demographics are bad, probably the worst in the world because they couple a um, high emigration from the country with

a high mortality rate because of the conflict with an already existing western or 1st world phenomenon of a shrinking population. uh, because of, of, you know, the standard modern, a fax of birth controls women working and everything else combined with the economic depression effect on population that was almost universal across the post soviet space. so uh, in 1991, the ukraine had a population of about 52000000. that population has, at, by the start of the conflict that had shrunk to about 34000000 in just 2 decades, just over to die. what's the cost the $3.00 decades?

because of all of these events before the conflict and now on top of the conflict, which really started in 2014, with some 20 percent of formerly ukranian territory. now, part of russia, the cry, me, uh, the don boss and uh, most of arizona is up a rogia. that is a huge of course, further population laws. now there hasn't been an official census in ukraine since 2001. so a lot of it is, is due to an official research, but the real population of ukraine in area controlled by the key of government now may be somewhere between 20 and 25000000, which is the say less than half the population that it started out it's in 1991. so the, the current conflict,

more territory almost certainly is going to end. the conflict in, uh, as part of russia then exist now, so that, that would be the 1st effect. emigration from the country continues not quite as high, is at the start of the conflict, but it is very high. and i think that only a very small minority of ukrainians living either who have you know, taking essentially refugee status in europe or in russia. and it's important, it's often neglected in the western media that there are some 5000000 ukrainians. all right. the meaning, you know, people from ukraine who areas that are still not considered part of russia that are in russia. right. that are living, working, or you know, and some type of refugee status in russia. most of those will not return like

whys. i am quite sure whatever they may say, to the contrary. the ukrainian refugees and displaced in europe and then battlefield, that's uh and uh, battlefield, that's our, of course everyone tacitly acknowledges a much, much higher uh, even currently uh then then what the covers him officially puts out and the western press acknowledges. you hear comments about all the time in the western media from actual ukrainian troops fighting for the average him on the battlefield about how high their, their casualties are. but it doesn't kind of trade the narrative. so, and the conflict is very likely to continue for years into the future. so it is entirely possible that ukraine will,

and this conflict in whatever territory is still an independent state of ukraine if it still exists. at the end of this conflict with less than a $20000000.00 population. yeah. for perspective i'm from los angeles. as you know, l. a county alone has roughly 10000000 people, so it sounds like you create as is very sparsely populated to begin with. so let's talk for a moment about the, the millions of ukrainian workers. you were really touched on this little bit, who according to the new one, they say that at any given time, roughly around 3000000 people are, are working abroad. these are mostly what economists would call working age people . so you might say between ages 18 and 55. then they say half of those people. so around 1500000 are considered low skilled occupation or laborers and the sort

and the other half are the young college educated professionals. the estimate is that one 3rd of them are under the age of $35.00. it seems that that last cohort cohort, they seldom return to the motherland because they went a cushy jobs abroad, you know, started building lives for themselves somewhere else. most of them being meals. the boys never come home because there is a dearth of opportunity for them in their careers. could we explain or attribute some of ukraine's lagging birth rates to this whole labor issue to working abroad? there's also constriction. there's also direction to the military that no uh, really same made. busy ukrainian wants to return to because they face immediately being conscripted and arriving in a trench in the front end of day of the or uh,

you know, on the flanks of back moot, often within 2 to 3 weeks of returning to the country as we just touched upon in that last question, with so many men working abroad, never to return the loan number of mails and ukraine is exacerbated by this forced conscription that floated mirror zalinski implemented boys as young as 15. 2 men as old as 60, are going to the front. if they manage to survive, as we've seen thus far, already, hundreds of thousands are now permanently disabled. i mean, not a whole, whole generation of ukrainian males are disabled. what do you make of that prospect who, who's gonna care for them and how? yeah, there, there are no good answers to that question. there, there is no uh, answer to it. um nope, no pleasant answer anyway. um there is that is going to be

a huge burden the disabled of the population because many, many of those disabled are amputees. right. the majority of that as a result of the type of conflict in, in nutrition war flop very largely with artillery. and um, the cambridge him having a significant problem getting their casualties back from the battlefield to a safe medical facilities leads to that. the most often result of such types of injuries, according to the western media, according to you know, doctors reporting to them from the hospitals is, is often amputation. so that's, that's going to be particularly tragic and no one has an answer to that. at this point. know what, but very coverage him supposedly has a 1000000 men under arms. that is what the president of the regime zalinski says.

of course, that's not counting any casualties from the beginning of the conflict, which according to the russian ministry of defense, are over $300000.00 men and some estimates put them significantly higher than that . um right now the cambridge team is finalizing a new mobilization bill through the rod out through their, their parliamentary body. they're having political difficulties doing with it because they're calling for the further conscription of 452500000 more. and no one wants to take political responsibility for that, but it interesting. no, is the age of the military at the front right now the average age is in the mid fourties around $44.00,

which is should be shocking. while the average him takes in recruits volunteers younger than 25, it doesn't actually can script men younger than 25 yet. and that might surprise a lot of people until you understand the demographic and narrowing. that is an existential threat to the future of ukraine. such that in the late ninety's in early 2, thousands because of the very bad economic conditions, corruption, the people weren't having children there still or now of course, but there was a very particular narrowing then, which means that there are 4 times the, the population from say, 35 to 55 is or times larger than the

population of 18 to 25. right? i mean the, it's, it's a huge generic. so there has been an attempt to spare the younger generation of ukrainians from conscription, so that there is someone to carry on and have children. you great, which is why they've been recruiting so many older men who are now dying in the trenches. so, but of course, those young men are also in prime economic activity to their being taken away from the economic activity of the country. right. a 1000000 under arms currently asking for another 452500000 more and considering how many have already emigrated either to, to the west, to europe or to, to the east, to russia,

the 1000000. so that leaves of very, very small working pool, particularly when we're talking skilled fields. and right now, what economy still exists in ukraine, which isn't much businesses are suffering from incredible shortages of labor and in particular skilled labor. all right, coming up next, modern western societies are seeing a lowered birth rate. much of this due to infertility, is that why ukranian women are finding surrogacy as a major source of income? we'll discuss it when we return with marx, the boat, a said type m o will be right back a the

water is part of the valuable post. good. isn't the deepest view of us and that in the word part, is it something deeper, more complex might be present to that stuff without collision? is that scope out of the the the most affordable cuz it also gives them business and you clean the daily shows. i am very cons graham, we'll go through with this discussion of curriculum and also let me provide you with the assumption. sure. ruckel beam was not of the different student info, which of course, and yet you throw in with them in the probably just a moment that a shortage through your deos that i sent you yesterday as well as the tab through

yours. man. i'm looking at the study skills assessment for sabrina and for to flourish to meet you on, on, on thursday, the tutor which origin load your bullshit just posted, sustainable loan because of this new way to bar float useful colors really don't know which these are i know for the don't know is i can suggest to do given the other than that, we're going to put these disappearing in finance has come all the the the welcome back to the m. o. i am the miller chan mark. sl boda is back with us. mark, thanks for sticking around. so what are the factors for the the population of ukraine is below fatality among women. yet ukraine is also the western world baby factory. i mean, by that, i mean, renting a, well,

many ukrainian women are story gets because of the very lax laws around all of that . so those baby, so they're being born, but then they go somewhere else. and he's off on that. yeah, this is a, it's a very hot button, political and cultural issue right now in, you grand, there is, has been multiple to propose bills put forward to the every james parliamentary body, the writer, a sig, you know, asking for this sir. again, see to be banned. it has not been as of yet as far as i know, but is there is certainly the possibility of simply because it is rightly or wrongly seen as taking potential children away from ukraine and essentially giving them to the west. ringback now, you know that of course is issues of choice and

a woman's body. um, but the facility right is an incredible problem. point 7, right? uh, you know, an average woman of childbearing age now only has point 7 children that's far, far below replacement rate. it is now the lowest in the world and it is due to again, the number of factors, everything that is that societal economic problems. you know, 1st of all, 1st of all, the country with women and now having fewer children, thanks to birth control, abortions, uh, and women in careers. that's a phenomenon being experienced across the 1st world. and now increasingly into the global south is as well. but that is compounded with the post soviet economic depression, a phenomena experience across most of the post soviet space rush all pulled out of

it in the 2, thousands. but ukraine has never emerged from the ninety's. and it's often a shock to see those numbers. but when you're facing an in the secure economic future where, you know the future looks even less bright than the present and the present doesn't look very good. people tend not to have children dramatically. so uh, and then the very high mortality rate in ukraine. the right now, the uh, the average life expectancy of a man is between 57 and 58 years in ukraine. that is absolutely shocking. but even before the conflict, you know, um such factors as alcoholism, suicide, they all played very high rolls and in bringing life expectancy down dramatically.

once again, ukraine never emerged from the ninety's. they've, they've been living in that shock. sarah, the corrupt world ever since and have never emerged from it so, so that leaves to this incredibly low life expectancy, high mortality, high immigration, low fatality rate of facility, right. and then the conflict and large amounts of ukrainian land voting to get out of dodge and joining russia, it is a demographic dest spiral, and it has to be said, as well as surrogacy. another problem that ukraine is experiencing is unfortunately this has been quietly reported on in the west, more academically than in rosalie. but the other thing that ukrainian women are selling that is of interest to the west, of course, is prostitution,

which will almost certainly play in at some degree to the problems with the number of children being born as well to so according to professor brianna harris of the center for population change at the university of south hampton u. k. she says this, the population crisis in ukraine is multi pronged listed here. so it was declining because of this, what we call that triple burden, which was low for till the rates, high immigration and relatively high mortality. all right, then you add in the war some 7000000 people have fled the country as refugees. population numbers are super low for a country that size if we exam and part of what she said about high mortality, i was actually super shop to find out that about one 3rd of ukrainians die. i mean,

regardless of gender that they died before the age of 65, due to preventable causes, and that's all according to the 2021. you on report as well. and why does so many ukrainians die off so young. the numbers are, of course, are skewed much higher towards men, then they are towards women. and there are, there are things multiple things that, that pay that a way into it. right? and a lot of these phenomenon can be found in, in western countries. you know, in, in europe, in the united states, but there to effect orally higher degree because of the parental a bad economic and spiraling down social situation in ukraine since 1991. and it's expected, you know, um, alcoholism is probably the number one cause. but that plays in across multiple

ways, and if you take it such things as a automobile, fatalities, heart attacks, all of which are exacerbated by alcoholism. you, you, you know, there's definitely a connecting trend that links a lot that goes into this. and the alcoholism is, is often directly or indirectly related to depression, which is a function uh, quite often of the, you know, the economic well being of the country. it starts having synergistic affects just driving everything down a russia experience this during the ninety's in the early 2, thousands. there were a mean. it was a regular phenomenon in western media and even academia to depict, to russia as a dying there. because of the, for cast a, the birth rate problem,

the demographic problems again was the life expectancy and everything. and russia pulled out of it. right? academic prosperity was restored, social order was restored. there were multiple programs to encourage people to have children. alcohol use went down dramatically in the country and in those more part, due to the government programs. but many people also suggest the vision of a young athletic, energetic president. who drank rarely and, and responsibly if at all. so it is not impossible that ukraine could pull out of this demographic death spiral. it's not impossible, it was done, but the longer it stays in it, the much, much harder it is likely to pull out of it. i would not give them very good chances

at this point, but it's not impossible. marks lombardo thank you for letting me pick your brain. mark is an international relations and security analyst, a former u. s. navy nuclear engineer and host of the real politics with marks the motor, which you can find on youtube, sub stack and telegram. thank you for that. thanks for having a right. that is going to do it for this episode of modus operandi the show that digs deep into foreign policy and current affairs. i'm your host manila chan. thank you for turning in. we'll see you again next time to figure out the m. o, the

release of russian states. never one of the most sense community invest in most all sense and in the system must be the one else holes. question about this, even though we will then in the european union, the kremlin media mission, the state on russia cruising and supports the r t spoke neck, keeping our video agency roughly all the band on youtube tv services. for the question, did you say steven twist, which is the

hello and welcome to the cost of full horses? here we discuss the wheel in the bottom and putting secures a lawn, slide victory, and ross in the presidential election, winning gold, and the 87 percent bathroom, which has been counted. the sounds of the nation forward supports while paying special tribute to those of cash. the ballots in boxes and buffalo, new regions, despite constant attacks by ukrainian forces his mother in the duties, despite the terrorist attacks. and you and i already know this well for citizens living in these territories, have shown not just civic majority. they show coverage, continue to show it, no one as i thought, assumed and said recently, no one intimidated them, and it is impossible to intimidate out people. the 3 all the candidates only managed, just over 10 percent between them. a communist party is an equal lives got

a ton of.