a decent and a complicating you're putting in the position of ukraine, blame servicing, which happens on disruption in the american assistance however, um that's it's, that's a major exaggeration because apart from the american assistance which never actually stopped completely, there was also a very significant to european systems can i stop, you're here for a 2nd because a, you know, these calls with has been a symmetrical. and since that looks and a logical from the very beginning is russia actually banded sitting from gaining on the battlefield. and the reason i'm asking this is because, you know, they and the more tactical a strategic games. once i may have the other side will respond to a symmetric only with terror attacks with, you know, other forms of pressure. so ease russia really that is sitting at this point from military gain, some, some of the russian conquests reduce the ukrainian ability

to conduct the terrorist attacks against dress and c test, for example. uh, the capture of the uh, the reuse, the eliminate that the most dangerous ukrainian position which could threaten the nancy and i need the lakes degrees of the uh, number of uh, artillery systems which could potentially be used to at that then. yeah, it's good because uh when nobody is good was even ukrainian hands. they could use uh, almost everything including paid mortars to attack the sheet to which they deed the regularly now needs becoming much more difficult. uh, the same is happening uh, in the heck, a full blister. the russians are trying to take

a s which were used previously for indiscriminate selling our builder such as the attack before them before the new year's eve in the end of 2023. when more than 100 people were injured. uh, so uh, before we create a security is own along the border, which was basically me mentioned by president bush and in the past. uh, and that to be relatively wide. security is own of dozens of filaments or simplest that would already improve the security of the russian territory. and at the same time, we could threaten major ukrainian political and defense. industrial centers such as surface now are speaking about this uh, security zone and its potential boundaries. i heard you seen before,

that preserving some sort of a military and bastion in ukraine for the west is still considered a preferred outcome. but there was, doesn't really concern itself with ukraine's territorial integrity. that's much. mm hm. i wonder though, if there are still some strong prerequisites there, because if, let's say ukraine's loses access to the black sea cost, it's strategic and logistical value as an asset is set to decrease. as we see from the statements of some western leaders, including the statements by the french president, my chrome, uh they will try to prevent, uh, capture for this a by, by the russian forces. this is one of the red lines when the for they see that the section danger section, denture emerges, we might, the weakness and escalation,

give me time to talk about this uh, red line because i mean the in this conference in particular and there were many a red lines and many were across and especially with their french president, his uh, words, uh, sometimes not the very substantive fight to put a diploma adequate on their capabilities. real capabilities for the west to do what it proposes and states there are capabilities to start the major escalation that will uh require a huge appetite for risk taking because what they will need to do is to send a very significant forces in through ukraine and start directly attacking freshman forces, otherwise they can not affect the outcome or for uh, what material on this firm trying to do. she's trying to create the situation of

strategic can be good g and he hopes that will force a rush at the strain. so no rush results for i think touring with the strategic can be guaranteed because present pollutant has never or is military commanders have never stated firmly whether they have an interest of moving the russian military contention to a best or how to get for that matter. how do you understand the russian calculus at this point? i believe that the russian goals are involving doing during the course of 4. and depending on the current situation, i believe there are firmly state the medium level goals. russia will try to get those external boards or so for the, for new regions and the russian will try to force your brain to accept political conditions which your will will be close to. what was in the stumble agreements. uh, these are the, is minimal goals,

plus probably russia will try to establish and keep some kind of safety is own uh, along the border of the ukraine with the, with the, uh, the 2014 the russian regions. so the lease is what's happening and i guess at this point the dresser will probably be ready to negotiate on the conditions which i described the boss. however, if the other side will continue it, resisting russian forces will continue at their offensive operations. and the of course, the tremendous thoughts that uh, terry theory, which will be taken by russia with significant sacrifice. this can not be given back. so uh,

initially russian didn't want to change the territorial status. cool at toll. uh and if ukraine and the rest agreed, stuckey stumble agreements, ukraine will control this will control the same territory which is controlled before uh, february 20th. thank you to now uh the time when the symbol agreements ruined, as, as you say, under the pressure from the west uh, the menu, western policymakers talked about the need to subject russia to a strategic defeat. we are, we are not hearing those statements anymore, but my question to you is how do we understand operational goals of the western participation at this point at these points. uh, the goal is to save the car into ukrainian regime as a functioning and minimally economically viable states,

which could be gradually rebuilt every arms and turn it into an assets in the long cold war against the russian. not necessarily, they are counting at ukraine and as a potential military force for the future because the damage, which was done on ukrainian economy and resources to do significant. but undoubtedly, ukraine. ukraine will be used as base for various subversive glenda spine, hybrid operations which, which basically um and these the fact even now and it, it, it has been the fact seems like a long time since the thousands and there were publications in the west about the ca basis in ukraine, uh, which are focused on working against russia and which were created uh at least

a 2014, if not earlier. basically, information about the cooperation of the western intelligence service. this would say a crating and then the junction working against the dresser and managed to make sure they're so still it will be valuable. assets rushing, go, ease of cost to prevent it from happening. and this is why so far it are not easily reconciled. belleville needs to soften the restroom position. now i heard you say in another interview that even if there were stops, ukraine would not be able to provide for itself. and in civilian terms for the foreseeable future. i think last year its domestic budget was by 60 percent failed by external forces this year and they figure may be higher. i wonder if that makes the word a cheaper option. because if you have some sort of a piece,

that's what they negatively raised. the question of rec, construction, if you go into, you know, much higher numbers, isn't it more profitable for, for the west to, you know, keep this asset at the, you know, low grade conflicts rather than deal with the, you know, rebuilding that. well, the, the who, it's not more profitable from financial point of view of the situation is, in fact today they're already ukraine. the required certain amount for systems to function as a state isn't before the war, millions of dollars per year. now ukraine is getting every year in the month for systems which is comparable to their 2022. i'm going to be recruiting and trying to bring to i'm going to be was about $200000000.00. now they're getting something like close to $100.00. their year and

the whole of the ukrainian economic dynamics and uh, is basically defined by amount of the subsistence, if the war stops, for example, stops. now, what happens next? of course the, the, the, some problems will be removed. uh uh you can an additional damage to the ukrainian, um infrastructure will stop. uh, people will stop. it'll die, however many problems will still exist. for example, in order to mobilize people to war ukraine, it's absolutely huge. financial commitments, the same a list of the fallen soldiers. they are supposed to get an, a very high amount of money, which is divide that the proportions like late. they're supposed to get something

like $15000000.00, even us, which are dividing the special purpose of several badges over on the over several years. so it seems the loss of the ukrainian forces are already significant. there will be huge buck burden of money and they will need to play in the light coming coming year. so this time of the self costs they can cheat, then they can uh, cause artificial inflation. but that will create huge discontent. they will still need to rent and rebuild the military, and that will be done on uh for an health of them for an a system cs money. they will still need to main thing. they state that there at this uh and the on top of that uh that will be the building. uh at the same time, mister. especially if i may stop here for a 2nd because we need to take it shouldn't bring, but we will return to this very hot topic and just a few moments say to the

take a fresh look around his life. kaleidoscopic isn't just a shifted reality distortion by power to division with no real opinions. fixtures designed to simplify. it will confuse really once a better world. and is it just because it shows you fractured images, presented to this, but can you see through their illusion going underground? can the

welcome back to wells appointments and i sent it cushion director and the center for comprehensive here again and security studies and the higher school of

economics. and let's go with that question. before the break. we started talking about the promises that the ukranian, linda should the current and create new leadership, gave to the soldiers and their families of huge pavements. and the, during the break, we tried to calculate how much, uh, $15000000.00 agreements. would it be in the uh, convertible currencies and you say that it's roughly several $100000.00. it's several years dollars. and yeah, so that's essentially on par with the, or perhaps even higher than the payments that the american military person it's comparable to. what's the space in the west as far as i understand the idea, but they've seen several parts over several years and they'll get this money a family or send me a little fee of credit in the service. then need to present all of the data, including the identification of the corpse, and that, that is difficult. so they,

they, even if they provide all of that, i mean, given the state of the ukraine in the economy, it's hard to understand what's the budgetary basis for that kind of format as well . barclay, there, there is no basis of varies uh, 1st of all of the, for an assistance which of course, depends heavily on internal political situation in the don't are countries which can get tired of that. another way out for the training and budget this just because if you show high inflation and the inflate to this problem is uh, which is quite likely. it's interesting that you mentioned that they are counting on for and sources because during the last couple of months, as the american congress was considering this a package, the issue of pensions, not just huge, military payouts, but simply paying pensions out of the american money. it was a, you know, a pretty hot topic. do you think uh, sponsors there,

sponsors. i truly understand what they are getting themselves in. and i think they really fully understand. they don't have to necessarily though they still, there are women's and to fill their to their public opinion. um, but of course the officials, the military, the intelligence official state code deal, the seo crane, the understand this fully, there will be huge, need to pay pensions and the other issue which will be happening. uh, uh, currently there are millions, sofa mm. the ukrainians, mostly women and children living in new york and they are there adopting to life. they're getting jobs going to schools that their men are turn, play for be due to leave the country once the war stops the board, they're ser open. uh, i think it's more likely that's not at least women them,

children return to ukraine, but there are other, there men will go to you or the rejoining them that will probably create additional me dem, uh, demographics decline and significant them down or trend for they are creating an economy and make situation worse. now, given the costs to your credit that you just mentioned that and also wanted to your grant but to the west itself, the need for military support, you know, multi $1000000000.00 assistance to pay subsidies, demographic losses, etc. and until recently, it was generally assumed the, the west is sort of gearing out for a low grade war of attrition that takes away resources from russian onto minds that uh uh, from proper development. i wonder though if the ukraine hotspot is such an

effective way of solving be the russian question, because apparently it's not cheap. what is what kind of a bang they're getting for their box? uh well, uh they're getting almost nice. the nice thing, because if, if we talk about pressure inside the fresh, a ukrainian conflict, started to the very dramatic change of the whole russian political economy and model of development. we see that the large sectors of the russian economy change hands. some were re nationalized, some uh, went from international companies to the local, the russian companies. and the, uh, the composition of the russian ruling elite has changed significantly and not in the direction that the west to be black, pushy, and the, as for the west, spend the spending on the ukraine. it will be

a long term. absolutely huge. the last us are comparable, the financial losses of the west are probably bigger than the russian financial losses because also the freezers of the western best that's inside the, for asha. and, and because of the fact that many uh, western companies had to sell their businesses and, and i said hugely desolate that costs and pay increased taxes for that. and the, even after the war stops, uh, the west will needs to spend money, dozens of billions of dollars, some ukraine every year for steal face danger. also that accumulating jo, political defeated because if they fail, those failed to spend this money. then ukrainian staple just collapse without any particular effort from the russian side. and the me they will have to deal with

this problem annually. the ukraine in leadership will probably be happy to, to have a low intensity conflict. a constant, marsha low avoid elections and continued getting and continue getting uh, external uh, financial assistance precisely because then the stand that once there's fees it will be much more difficult to pass with a huge spending on the ukraine through the american then european far lamens. i want to ask you one more question about the landscape because clearly there are no syntheses for him, for him in most good. and what's surprising is that over the last couple of months here for more and more criticism from western military professionals about how wasteful and absolutely negligent,

if not cruel. he is about using his own human resources, both civilian and the military. but i wonder if at this point most school would prefer him to stay or to go because it will fund the kremlin nelson goes by the adage, better the devil with no. and at this point of time, it looks like from what you're saying, zelinski is hurting the west more than a parts russian. well, it's a document that the end it's described many times in the ukrainian media and then statements. so few crane and military experts and officers that zalinski deeds personally contribute to some of the military disasters who witnessed my ukraine since the beginning of 4, especially he, on the number of cases in the system indefinitely, defending hopeless positions which were finally forgotten the purposes. yeah, which were yes, they me surround it in order to on prove the ukrainian,

the resilience to the west ascii. so it or for propaganda purposes or just because he had his own. i'm can unconventional views on the warfare and that was one of the reasons for he is constantly conflicts with the previous uh, commander in chief of the armed forces. so if you train about a zillow's name, of course, so some of the, some of these groups curious, dig sofa, zelinski are good for russia. russian never tried going to a, to the what pieces the russian never tried to kill him. that there hasn't been any strikes against the government for through us in cave. and uh, some months ago, russia has shown the do the full did shows dealings. zelinski is an easy to share some which was taken from russian drones. so at least once there was an occasion

then zelinski was watched by the russians, serial time, literally in the range of their artillery could be easily eliminate that they've done and nothing. so uh and that's uh that's it was the lens of landscapes incompetence isn't good for us. but at some point he will become a problem for everyone. because he is the person most interested in and less continuation of war, no matter what and the you. and if um, at some point, uh, russians will go much deeper into ukraine. she will prefer to fight until the end even run until she needs to evacuate. still need to take her 3 and 4 and the government in exile or rather then talk to the russians. now, do you think nato would actually one human, hugh search here because, i mean, what's the point of them posting and they like that at some point probably she

could, she comes probably that at some point they will have no other option. uh, and will have to accept him. uh, however, i believe everyone understands there. i do believe that she is becoming problematic . and uh, you know, the thing in the history of, of cold war uh, vigorous thing sometimes happens to such political lawyers because let's deal with the americans practice targeted. the association is not only against foreign leaders, but also, you know, some have speculated against the own. so against the yes pro on the lead yourself, some for on that it can thought that the resumes which became a to probably magic that's happened during the cold war. who knows what happens now of, for russia, i believe with the best ease of a situation is that he just has to change his mind, then starts to negotiate. that's why russia lloyd's any personal attacks

against human physically and basically indicates that the rest of these are, i need to talk to him. and she has to take all of the measures to prevent the spokes from happening. and some of these measures are just no t's decrees, bindings and from negotiating from russian. but those of terrorist attacks against the russian civilian targets and population which as he hopes will make negotiations single symbol. okay, well um actually we have to move in there. thank you very much for your time and thank you for watching. hope to hear again. oh, it was a part of the

the plus the see the silver. so the move up to somebody how can it be that um the ship to the middle east from a country whose top officials constantly complain about shortages of munitions and military equipment. is through a little bit of boston low cream and maybe a little in your system and below came along the nominal facility or some of those other slash we, i'm about to the easiest and we also want to know, yeah, we'll have an easy somebody not to bump up the sold will not be so kind. and now why are weapons from ukraine spreading over the world to, to this country and to

a major arms hub, will continue to bolster ukraine's and forces by rushing them occasionally is that they need to defend their country. the everyone knows very well that we don't sell but known as buying apples or any kind of children's toys. we sell women's. yes, we're also known in the world as arms dealers that we must not be ashamed of that the in the late 18 ninety's, french soldiers led by general to boot. i arrived in asia with the goal of expanding french control in west africa to the territory of more than shot. no one

or 3 to come on sunday. i mean, he's done new. sure. all the cars do, and dick's shown the list to the 10th of who they on the east, one of the most terrific campaigns of atrocities to have ever taken place in the history of the continent. what is somebody i know the question that you download, the philosophy followed the do. so they put the actual most likely multiple villages with devastated a numerous members of resistance groups with the headed home for us to get the young investigator in search of his own identity and box on a journey through africa. peach races general with eyes, blood drenched roots in an effort to establish how your legacy still echoes throughout the confidence. so my name is ben and i come from england and i've come really to find out more about the mission of willie and base,

grew up in the region, the thousands that protested round the white house calling for them to washington support for israel. also the only the latest deadly raised on the death to report to the pumps is 270 palestinians killed in an idea of postage rescue operation if it needs to read refugee counts in central. gone to washington praises these really mission to release the cap tips with failed to mention the civilian cost of speaking to r t a. her mazda official back south american medias.