to turn it into develops nation by 2040 stuff, and he was through 12 people in the country into a global manufacturing hub. and indeed, as we've seen over the past decade in d, as clouts on the global stage has more than definitely risen. and the rent remote de, on the corner me is now one of the old all states growing in the world, which is only boosted just india as rise as an emerging global power. so they selection results on today in particular, a lot of eyes will be trained on india with this a. this was a resume using far beyond as broad as capturing the attention of the united states . so long china, of course, on washer as well, and also well maintaining a balanced approach. new delhi has managed to increase is, ties with countries of the global south. the bricks alliance has become one of the main focuses of the moody governments. and the country is contributing to the

alliance sundays expansion and asserting this position and the new emerging multilateral wealth. india has also been a vocal supporter of the united nations reform, and it has an inspiration to become a permanent member of the un security council, which he says will make the body more representative. so there's a lot to be um, well check for in the next 5 years on the new angel moody as he leads his country into another 5 year term board. this order. and we'll be back with more on this on planned team. all the top stories and 30 minutes we'll see you then this started my duties the

on the trying to welcome to worlds a part is by the old, the western military assistance. and the escalating retorted calling him also to the conflict in ukraine is still constrained by some unspoken understanding between the russian, the west as to what's allowed and what's not. where all these red lines signed, what may happen if they're cross of to discuss that. i'm now joined by somebody caution director and the center for comprehensive european and international studies at the higher school of economics in moscow. the suggestion is always a pleasure to talk to thank you very much for your time. thank you for having me. now you have a reputation of one of the most detail oriented observers of the ukrainian conflict in russia and you pay attention not so much to the ideology of it, but uh, you know, military hardware, the numbers,

the trends. so i wanna use this opportunity to, to ask you, where are we at this point? uh, we are probably at turning point of, uh, this conflict. we see that the, the progress of the russian forces is the fastest since spring of blankets. and to, to uh, since the beginning of may see, or russians have been making significant gains sent the, sometimes the most difficult uh, the most fortified to ukrainian positions such as of div could have been they can foster then he took to me to conquer, much weaker for justice in the past, uh they knew the offense, this in the north of track if the region is additional complicating ukrainian fuzzy,

some ukraine blame 7 of seeing which happened on disruption in the american assistance. however. um, that's its, that's a major exaggeration because the fired from the american assistance which never actually stopped completely. there was also a very significant to european systems. can i stop? you're here for a 2nd because you know, these cosmic has been a symmetrical and some extent a logical from the very beginning is russia actually spanish sitting from gaining on the battlefield. and the reason i'm asking this is because, you know, the more tactical and strategic gains once i may have the other side will respond to a symmetric only with terror attacks with, you know, other forms of pressure. so ease russia really that is sitting at this point from military gain, some, some of the russian conquests reduce the ukrainian ability

to conduct the terrorist attacks against the dress and c test, for example. uh, the capture of the uh, the reuse, the eliminate that the most dangerous ukrainian position which could threaten the nets. and i need the likes degrees of the number of the artillery systems which could potentially be used to at that then. yeah, it's good because when nobody is good was in ukrainian hands, they could use uh, almost everything including pay and mortars to attack the she to which they need the regularly now needs becoming much more difficult. uh, the same is happening uh, in the heck, a full boost the russians are trying to take a s which were used previously for indiscriminate selling our

builder such as the attack before them before the new year's eve in the end of 2023. when more than 100 people are injured. uh so uh, before we create a security is own along the border, which was basically me mentioned by president bush and in the past. uh. and that should be relatively wide, security is on of does himself kilometers, at least that will already improve the security of the russian territory. and at the same time, we could threaten major ukrainian political and defense industrial centers such as surface now are speaking about this uh, security zone and its potential boundaries. i heard you say before the preserving

some sort of a military, a bastion in ukraine for the west is still considered a preferred outcome. but there was, doesn't really concern itself with ukraine's territorial integrity. that's much. mm hm. i wonder though, if there is still some strong prerequisites there, because if, let's say ukraine's loses access to the black sea cost, it's uh, strategic and logistical value as an asset is set to decrease. as we see from the statements of some western leaders, including of the statements by the french president, my chrome, uh they will try to prevent, uh, capture for this a by, by the russian forces. this is one of the red lines when before they see that the such and danger session danger emerges, we might witness an escalation. give me kinda talk about this uh,

red line because i mean the in this conference in particular, and there were many, a red lines and many were across and especially with their french president. his words, sometimes not the very substantive fight to put a diplomatically on their capabilities, a real capabilities for the west to do what it proposes and states there are capabilities to start the major escalation that will require a huge appetite for risk taking because what they will need to do is to send a very significant forces in to ukraine and start direct clips and taking freshman forces. otherwise they can not affect the outcome of for uh, what material on this firm click trying to do. she's trying to create the situation of strategic can be glitchy and he hopes that will force

a rush at the strain. and so no rush result for, i think, touring with the strategic can be guaranteed because presence, which has never, or is military commanders have never stated firmly whether they have an interest of moving the russian military contingent to a best or how to get a for that matter, how do you understand the russian calculus at this point? i believe that the russian goals are involving during, during the course of 4. and depending on the current situation, i believe they're firmly state that minimal goals. russia will try to get those external borders. so for the, for new regions and the rest of all tried to force your brain to accept political conditions, which there will be close to what was in the stumble agreements. uh, these are the, the minimal goals plus, probably at russia will try to establish and keep some kind of safety as own

uh, along the border of the ukraine with the, with the, uh, the 2014 the russian regions. so the lease is what's happening and i guess at this point the dresser will probably be ready to negotiate on the, on the conditions which i described the boss. however, if the other side will continue it, resisting russian forces will continue in their offensive operations. and the, of course that you've done to students that uh, terry theory, which will be taken by russia with significant sacrifices, can not be given back. so uh, initially rushing deep into one to change the territorial status. cool at toll.

uh and if ukraine and the rest agreed, spooky stumble agreements, ukraine will control this will control the same territory which is controlled before. uh, february 2022. now, uh at the time when the symbol agreements ro, ruined, as, as you say, under the pressure from the west uh, the menu western policymakers talked about the need to subject russia to a strategic defeat. yeah, i mean, i'm not hearing those statements anymore, but my question to you is how do we understand operational goals of the western participation at this point? at this point, the goal is to save the car into ukrainian regime as a functioning and minimally economically viable states. which could be gradually

rebuilt every arms and turn it into an assets in the long, cold war against the russian. not necessarily. they are counting at ukraine and as a potential military force for the future. because the damage, which was done on ukrainian economy and resources to do significant. but the, i'm the ultimately ukraine, ukraine will be used as base for various subversive glenda spine, hybrid operations which, which basically um and these, the fact even now and it, it, it has been the fact seems a very long time since the thousands and they were publications in the west about the ca basis in ukraine, uh, which are focused on working against russia and which were created uh at least the

2014, if not earlier. basically information about the cooperation of the western intelligence services which they are creating. and then the jumps in working against the dresser and managed to make sure they're so still it will be valuable. assets rushing, go, ease of cost to prevent it from happening. and this is why so far it are not easily reconciled. belleville needs to soften the restroom position. now i heard you say in another interview that even if there were stops, ukraine would not be able to provide for itself. and incidentally, in terms for the foreseeable future, i think last year its domestic budget was by 60 percent failed by external forces this year. and they figure may be higher. i wonder if that makes the word a cheaper option. because if you have some sort of a piece,

that's what the negatively raised, the question of rec, construction, i mean, you can go into, you know, much higher numbers. isn't it more profitable for, for the west to, you know, keep this asset at the, you know, low grade conflicts rather than deal with the, you know, rebuilding that. well, the, it's not more profitable from financial point of view of the situation is in fact today they're already ukraine. the required certain amount of assistance to function as a state prison before the war, millions of dollars per year. now ukraine is getting every year in the month for systems which is comparable to their 2021 gdp ukraine. and trying to think you want me to be was about $200000000.00. now they're getting something like close to 100 their year

and the whole of the ukrainian economic dynamics uh, is basically defined by amount of the subsistence, if the war stops, for example, stops. now, what happens next? of course the, the, the, some problems will be removed. uh, uh, you put an additional damage to the ukrainian, um, infrastructure will stop. uh, people will stop, it'll die, however many problems will still exist. for example, in order to mobilize people to war ukraine a s absolutely huge financial commitments, the signed release of the fallen soldiers. and they are supposed to get an and very high amount of money, which is divided into portions like late. and they are supposed to get something like $15000000.00 even us,

which are divide in the special the several budgets over on the over several years . so since the last, this of the ukrainian forces are already significant, there will be huge bucket burden of money. they will need to play in the light coming coming year. still these family soft costs. they can cheat, then they can uh, cause artificial inflation. but that will create huge discontent. they will still need to rent and rebuild the military. and that will be done on uh for an health of them for an a system cs money. they will still need to main thing. they state that they are at this uh and uh, on top of that uh that will be the building. uh, at the same time mister, especially if i may stop here for a 2nd because we need to take it shouldn't bring, but we will return to this very hot topic and just a few moments say to the

the welcome back to wells appointments and my senior cushion director and the center for comprehensive here again and security studies and the higher school of economics. and most of mr. carson before the break. we started talking about the promises that the ukraine and linda should, the current and brand new leadership gave to the soldiers that had their families

of huge pavements. and the, during the break, we tried to calculate how much uh, $15000000.00 or 3 months. would it be in the convertible currencies and you say that it's roughly several $100000.00. it's several years dollars. and yeah, so that's essentially on par with the, or perhaps even higher than the payments that the american military person it's comparable to. what's the space in the west as far as i understand the, but it's in several parts uh over several years and to get this money. the family is, i'm a little c ukraine in a service. and then you need to present all of the data, including the identification of the corpse, and that, that is difficult. so the, even if they provide all of that, i mean, given the state of the ukrainian economy, it's hard to understand what's the budgetary basis for that kind of,

from pharma as well fireplace. there, there is no basis of varies uh, 1st of all of the, for an assistance which of course, depends heavily on internal political situation in the don't are countries which can get tired of that. another way out for the ukrainian budget this just because the artificial high inflation and the inflate to this problem is uh, which is quite likely it's interesting that you mentioned they are counting on foreign sources. because during the last couple of months, as the american congress was considering this a package, the issue of pensions, not just huge, military payouts, but simply paying pensions out of the american money was a you know, a pretty hot topic. do you think sponsors there sponsors are truly understand what they are getting themselves in? i, i think they really fully understand they don't necessarily they will. they still,

there are women's and the full there me to their public opinion. um, but of course the see shows the military, the intelligence official state cool deal, the seo crane. they understand this fully, there will be huge need to pay pensions and the other issue which will be happening . uh, currently there are millions, sofa mm ukrainians, mostly women and children. uh, living in new york. and they are there uh, adopting the life. they're getting jobs going to schools that they are men are currently for be due to leave the country. once the war stops as a board there sir, open. uh, i think it's more likely that lots at least women them children and return to ukraine. but through others, their men will go to europe during joining them. that will probably create

additional demographics, decline and significant on down words, trend for low cranny and economy and makes you jason worse smell, given the costs to your credit that you just mentioned that and also wanted to your grant but to the west itself. the need for military support, you know, multi $1000000000.00 assistance to pay subsidies, demographic losses, etc. and until recently, the was generally assumed the, the west is sort of gearing out for a low grade war of attrition. that takes away resources from russian onto minds that uh uh, from proper development. i wonder though if the ukraine hotspot is such an effective way of solving the, the russian question, because apparently it's not cheap. what is, what kind of

a bang they're getting for their box? uh well, uh they're getting almost nothing, nothing because if we talk about pressure inside the fresh, a ukrainian conflict started to the very dramatic change of the whole russian political economy and model of development. we see that the large sectors of the russian economy change hands, some were re nationalized, some went from international companies to the local, the russian companies. and the, uh, the composition of the russian ruling elite has changed significantly and not in the direction that the west to be black, pushy, and the, as for the west, spend the spending on your print. it will be a long term. absolutely huge. the losses are comparable. the financial losses of the west are probably bigger than the russian financial losses,

because also the freezers of the western sits inside the for asha. and because of the fact that many uh, western companies had to sell their businesses and the raw said hugely desolate that costs and pay increased taxes for that. and the, even after the war stops, uh, the west will needs to spend many dozens of billions of dollars, some ukraine every year for steal face dangerously accumulating joe political defeated. because if they fail, those failed to spend this money. then a ukrainian state will just collapse without any particular effort from the russian side and the they will have to deal with this problem anyway. the ukraine in leadership will probably be happy to,

to have a low intensity conflict. a constant, marsha low avoid elections and continued getting and continue engaging external uh, financial assistance precisely because then, but then that once there is space, it will be much more difficult to pass with a huge spending on the ukraine through the american. then european parliament's, i want to ask you one more question about the landscape because clearly there are no syntheses for him, for him in most good. and what's surprising is that over the last couple of months, we have for more and more criticism from western military professionals. about how wasteful and absolutely negligent, if not cruel. he is about using his own human resources, both civilian and the military. but i wonder if at this point most school would

prefer him to stay or to go because it will fund the criminal. nelson goes by the adage, better the devil with no discipline of time. it looks like from what you're saying . zelinski is hurting the west more than it hurts russia. well, it's a document that the end it's described many times seen the ukrainian media and then statements. so few crating and military experts and officers that zalinski deeds personally contribute to some of the military disasters who witnessed my ukraine since the beginning of 4, especially he, on the number of cases in the system indefinitely, defending hopeless positions which were probably forgotten the purposes which were yes, they me surround it in order to to prove the ukrainian, the resilience to the west ascii. so it or for propaganda purposes,

or just because he had his own. i'm can unconventional views on the warfare and that was one of the reasons for he is constantly conflicts with the previous uh, commander in chief of the armed forces. so if you train about a zillow's name, of course, so some of the, some of the, some growth to reset itself. the zelinski are good for russia. russian never tried going to a, to the what pieces, the russian that were tried to kill him. that there hasn't been any strikes against the government for through us and fees. and the some months ago, russia has shown the do. the full did show dealings zelinski cities. it's to share some which was taken from russian drones. so at least once there was an occasion then zelinski was watched by the russians, serial time, literally in the range of their artillery could be easily eliminate that they've

done and nothing. so that's uh that's it was the lens as it landscapes incompetence isn't good for us. but at some point he will become a problem for everyone because he is the person most interested in endless continuation of war no matter what and to you. and if, or at some point, the russians will go much deeper into ukraine. she will prefer to fight them until the end even run until she needs to evacuate. still need to tear 3 and form a government in exile or rather then talk to the russians. some uh, do you think nato would actually want to see him on his territory because, i mean, what's the point of them posting and they like that at some point probably he or she comes probably that at some point they will have no other option. and we'll have to accept him. uh, however,

i believe everyone understands gradually that she is becoming problematic. and the, you know, the theme in the history of, of cold war. uh, various things sometimes happens to such political lawyers because let's deal with the americans practice targeted. the association is not only against foreign leaders, but also, you know, some have speculated against the own. so against the yes pro on the lead yourself. some for on a can thought that the resumes which became a to probably magic that happened during the cold war. who knows what happens now of, for russia, i believe with the best ease of a situation is that he just has to change his mind, then starts to negotiate. that's why russia lloyd's any personal attacks against human physically and basically indicates that the rest of these are, i need to talk to him and the she has to take all of the measures to

prevent these folks from happening. and some of these measures are just no t's degrees binding, some from negotiating from russian. but those of terrorist attacks against the russian civilians are good and population which as he hopes will make negotiations singles both. okay, well um actually we have to move in there. thank you very much for your time and thank you for watching hope to hear again and was a part of the the, the,

the, [000:00:00;00] the thousands of protesters rounds, the white house calling for an end to washington support, as well as off of the, on the latest getting ready, you don't gone to the list agent right here in the area. as the direct result of such an is really at operation which was on the 3 sit dented ends at garza thread. the desktop supposedly policies, 270 palestinians killed in an idea of postage rescue operation. the news throughout