but he didn't want uh, the photo opportunity, the press conference to take place on that very night by people who did resign, send his letter of resignation and football, the press conference until tonight. no. yes, she does want to be prime minister. right now. he's not the leading opposition member. yeah, you're lucky. the former prime minister for several months has 3 times the number of members of goodness a gun says, but according to the public opinion, polls going to go with a bully? none of the they will have to join forces, all of them and stopping the thing out. very interesting insights on the outside you so much for coming into programs such short notice as well. i me or or, and is really your next live from tel aviv. thank you, but it's a trip to the world of parts studios next. find out who exam as engaging in conversation with today. after the shortest of breaks. this is our t international. the

learning welcome to worlds apart just by the old, the western military assistance. and the escalating retorted calling him also to the conflict in ukraine is still constrained by some unspoken understanding between the russian, the west as to what's allowed or what's not. where all these red lines signed, what may happen if they're crossed up to discuss it. i'm now joined by it was a caution director and the center for comprehensive european and international

studies and the higher school of economics in moscow. but the question, it's always a pleasure to talk to thank you very much for your time. thank you for having me. now you have a reputation of one of the most detail oriented observers of the ukrainian conflict in russia and you pay attention not so much to the ideology of it, but uh, you know, military hardware and the numbers, the trends. so i want to use this opportunity to ask you, where are we at this point? uh, we are probably at turning point of, uh, this conflict. we see that the, the progress of the russian forces is the fastest since spring of blankets and 2. uh, since the beginning of this year, russians have been making significant gains sent uh, sometimes the most difficult uh, the most, fortified to you, cranium,

positions such as of div could have been taken faster then. uh, to, to me, to conquer, much weaker for addresses in the past. uh the new uh, offensive seen den north of fact if region uh, is a decent and a complicating ukrainian position. and ukraine blamed servicing which happens on disruption in the american assistance. however, um that's its, that's a major exaggeration because apart from the american assistance, which never actually stopped completely, there was also a very significant to european systems. can i stop? you're here for a 2nd because, you know, this conflict has been a symmetrical and since that looks and a logical from the very beginning is russia actually banded sitting from gaining on

the battlefield. and the reason i'm asking this is because, you know, they and the more tactical a strategic gains, one side may have, the other side will respond to a symmetric only with terror attacks with, you know, other forms of pressure. so ease russia really that is sitting at this point from military gain, some, some of the russian conquests reduce the ukrainian ability to conduct the terrorist attacks against dress and c test, for example. uh, the capture of d, if uh we use the eliminate that the most dangerous ukrainian position which could threaten the nets and i need the lakes degrees of the number of artillery systems which could potentially be used to at that then. yeah, it's good because uh when nobody is good was in your training and hands they could

use uh almost everything including pay morters to attack the sheet to which they need the regularly now needs becoming much more difficult. uh, the same is happening in the heck a full blister. the russians are trying to take a s which were used previously for indiscriminate selling our builder such as the attack before them before the new year's eve in the end of 2023. when more than 100 people were injured. uh, so uh, before we create a security is own along the border, which was basically mentioned by president bush and in the past. uh, and that should be relatively wide, secure. it is own of dozens of kilometers,

at least that would already improve the security of the russian territory. and at the same time, we could threaten major ukrainian political and defense. industrial centers such as surface now are speaking about this uh, security zone and its potential boundaries. i heard you seen before that preserving some sort of a military, a bastion in ukraine for the west is still considered a preferred outcome. but there was, doesn't really concern itself with ukraine's territorial integrity. that's much. mm hm. i wonder though, if there are still some strong prerequisites there, because if, let's say ukraine's loses access to the black sea cost, it's strategic and logistical value as an asset is set to decrease. as we see from the statements of some western leaders, including the statements by the french president chrome,

uh they will try to prevent, uh, capture for this a by, by the russian forces. this is one of the red lines when the for they see that the section danger section, denture emerges, we might witness an escalation, didn't come to talk about this uh red line because i mean the in this conference in particular and there were many, a red lines and many were across and especially with their french president, his words, sometimes not the very substantive fight to put a diplomatic way on their capabilities, real capabilities for the west to do what it proposes and states there are capabilities to start the major escalation that will require a huge appetite for risk taking because what they will need to do is to send

a very significant forces in through ukraine and start directly attacking freshman forces. otherwise they can not affect the outcome of for uh, what material on this currently trying to do. she's trying to create the situation of strategic can be glitchy and he hopes that will force a rush at the strain. and so now rush results for i think touring with the strategic can be guaranteed because present pollutant has never or is military commanders have never stated firmly whether they have an interest of moving the russian military contention to adjust or how to get for that matter. how do you understand the russian calculus at this point? i believe that the russian goals are involving during, during the course of 4. and depending on the current situation,

i believe there are firmly state that may him all goals. russia will try to get those external borders. so for the, for new regions and the russian will try to force your brain to accept political conditions, which your will will be close to. what was in the stumble agreements. uh, these are the minimal goals. plus, probably russia will try to establish and keep some kind of safety zone along the border of the ukraine with the with the, uh, the 2014 the russian regions. so the lease is what's happening. and i guess at this point, the dresser will probably be ready to negotiate on the conditions which i described the boss. however, if the other side will continue it, resisting russian forces will continue to their offensive

operations. and the, of course that you've done the students for that uh terry theory, which will be taken by russia with significant sacrifice. this can not be given back. so uh, initially, russian didn't want to change the territorial state to score at home. and if ukraine and the rest agreed to do it, the stumble agreements, ukraine will control this will control the same territory which is controlled before uh, february 2022. now, uh at the time when the symbol agreements ruined, as, as you say, under the pressure from the west uh, the menu, western policymakers talked about the need to subject russia to

a strategic defeat. we are not hearing those statements anymore. but my question to you is, how do we understand operational goals of the western participation at this point at these points? uh, the goal is to save the car into your training and regime as a functioning and minimally economically viable states, which could be gradually rebuilt. every arms and turns into an assets in the long cold war against the russian. not necessarily. they are counting at ukraine and as a potential military force for the future because the damage, which was done on ukrainian economy and resources to do significant. but the, undoubtedly, ukraine, ukraine will be used as base for various subversive glenda spine,

hybrid operations which, which basically is the fact even now and it, it, it has been defect seems a very long time since the thousands and they were publications in the west about the ca, basis in ukraine, uh, which are focused on working against russia and which were created uh at least at the 4014, if not earlier. basically, uh, information about the corporation of the western intelligence services with a, a cranium intelligence in working against russia in march to make sure there so that the steel, it will be valuable assets, russian goals, ease of cost, to prevent it from happening. and this is why so far, it are not easily reconciled. the low needs to soften the restroom position. now i heard you say in another interview that even if they're more stops,

ukraine would not be able to provide for itself. incidentally, in terms for the foreseeable future, i think last year it's domestic budget was by 60 percent failed by external forces this year in may, they figure may be higher. i wonder if that makes the word a cheaper option, because if you have some sort of a piece, that's what they negatively raise a question of rec construction. i mean, you can go into, you know, much higher numbers. isn't it more profitable for, for the west to, you know, keep this asset at the, you know, low grade conflicts rather than deal with the, you know, rebuilding that. well, the, the who, it's not more profitable from financial point of view of the situation is that, in fact they, they're already ukraine. the required certain amount of assistance to function as a state doesn't before the war, millions of dollars per year. now ukraine is getting every year in the month for

systems which is comparable to or they're trying to plan to. i'm going to be ukraine and trying to think you want me to be was about $200000000.00. now they're getting something like close to 100 their year. uh, and the whole of the of cranium, economic dynamics uh, is basically defined by amount of for the subsistence. uh, if the war stops, for example, stops. now, what happens next? of course the, the, the, some problems will be removed. uh, uh, you put an additional damage to the ukrainian and infrastructure will stop, the people will stop to die. however, many problems will still exist. for example,

in order to mobilize people to more ukraine made absolutely huge financial commitments to the families of the full and soldiers. they are supposed to get an a very high amount of money, which is divided thing proportions like late. they are supposed to get something like $15000000.00 driven us, which are dividing the special purpose of several budgets over of the over several years. so it seems the last, this of the ukrainian forces are already significant. there will be huge buck burden of money and they will need to play in the light coming coming year. still, they sign release of cost. they can cheat, then they can uh, cause artificial inflation. but that will create huge this content. they will still need to rent and rebuild the military, and that will be done on uh for an health of them for an a system cs money.

they will still need to many thing. they state that there at this uh and the on top of that uh that will be the building uh at the same time mister cushion if i may still fear for a 2nd because we need to take it shouldn't bring. but we will return to this very hot topic and just a few moments say to the of the the, the

the the welcome back to wells appointments and i sent it cushion director and the center for comprehensive here again and secure just that is the higher school of economics and most of mr. carson, before the break, we started talking about the promises that the ukraine and linda should, the current and brand new leadership gave to the soldiers and their families of huge pavements and the during the break, we tried to calculate how much, uh,

$15000000.00 or 3 months would it be in the convertible currencies and you say that it's roughly several $100000.00. it's several years dollars. and yeah, so that's essentially on par with the, or perhaps even higher than the payments that the american military person it's comparable to. what's the space in the west as far as i understand the, but it's in several parts uh over several years and i still get this money. uh, family is i'm a little c ukraine in a service man. you need to present all of the data, including the identification of the corpse, and that, that is difficult. so the, even if they provide all of that, i mean, given the state of the ukrainian economy, it's hard to understand what's the budgetary basis for that kind of pharma as well . barclay, there, there is no basis of varies uh, 1st of all of the,

for an assistance which of course, depends heavily on internal political situation in the don't are countries which can get tired of that. another way out for the training and budget this just because the artificial find installation and the inflate to this problem is uh, which is quite likely it's interesting that you mentioned they are counting on foreign sources because during the last couple of months as the american congress was considering this a package, the issue of pensions, not just huge, military payouts, but simply paying pensions out of the american money was a, you know, a pretty hot topic. do you think sponsors there sponsors are truly understand what they are getting themselves in? i, i think they really fully understand they don't necessarily they will, they still, there are lumens and the full there me to their public opinion. um,

but of course the see shows the military, the intelligence official state cool deal, the ceo crane. they understand this fully. there will be huge need to pay pensions and the other issue which will be happening. uh, currently there are millions, sofa mm ukrainians, mostly women and children. uh, living in new york. and they are there uh, adopting the life. they're getting jobs going to schools that they are men are currently for be moved to leave the country once the war stops as a board. they're ser open. uh, i think it's more likely that lots at least women them children and return to ukraine. but through other, their men will go to europe during joining them. that will probably create additional me demographics,

decline and significant them down or to trend for lack of training and economy and make situation worse. now, given the costs to your credit that you just mentioned that and also wanted to your grant but to the west itself, the need for military support, you know, multi $1000000000.00 assistance to pay subsidies, demographic losses, etc. and until recently the was generally assumed the, the west is sort of gearing out for a low grade war of attrition that takes away resources from russian onto minds that uh uh, from proper development. i wonder though if the ukraine hotspot is such an effective way of solving the, the russian question, because apparently it's not cheap. what is what kind of a bang they're getting for their box? uh well, uh, they're getting almost nothing. nothing because of the foot. talk about pressure

inside the fresh, a ukrainian conflict started. so the very dramatic change of the whole russian political economy and model of development. we see that the large sectors of the russian economy change hands. some were re nationalized. some went from international companies to the local, the russian companies, and the, uh, the composition of the russian ruling elite has changed significantly and not in the direction that the west to black, pushy, and the, as for the west, spend the spending on the ukraine. it will be a long term absolutely huge to the law. so sir, comparable, the financial losses of the west are probably bigger than the russian financial losses because also the freezers of the western best that's inside the for asha.

and because of the fact that many uh, western companies had to sell their businesses and the ra said huge the desolate that's costs and the pay increased taxes for that. and the, even after the war stops, uh, the west will needs to spend many dozens of billions of dollars, some ukraine every year for steal face dangerously accumulating joe political defeated. because if they fail, those failed to spend this money. then ukrainian staple just collapse without any particular effort from the russian side. and the me they will have to deal with this problem annually. and the ukraine in leadership will probably be happy to, to have a low intensity conflict,

a constant marshall low and void elections. and continued getting and continue getting uh, external uh, financial assistance precisely because then the stand that once there's fees, it will be much more difficult to pass with a huge spending on the ukraine through the american then european parliament. i want to ask you one more question about the landscape because clearly there are no syntheses for him, for him in most good. and what's surprising is that over the last couple of months, we have for more and more criticism from western military professionals about how wasteful and absolutely negligent, if not cruel. he is about using his own human resources, both civilian and the military. but i wonder if at this point most school would prefer him to stay or to go because it will fund the kremlin nelson goes by the

adage, better the devil with no. and at this point of time, it looks like from what you're saying, zelinski is hurting the west more than a parts russian. well, it's a document that the end it's described many times in the ukrainian media and then statements. so feel crane in military experts and officers, that is a lensky deeds personally to contribute to some of the military disasters who witnessed my ukraine since the beginning of 4, especially he, on the number of cases in the system indefinitely, defending hopeless positions which were probably forgotten the purposes which were yes, they me surround it in order to on prove the ukrainian, the resilience to the west ascii. so it or for propaganda purposes or just because he had his own. i'm can unconventional views on the warfare and

that was one of the reasons for he is constantly conflicts with the previous uh, commander in chief of the armed forces. so if you train about a zillow's name, of course, so some fleet book, some of the, some good materialistic sofa zelinski are good for russia. russian never tried going to a to the what pieces the russian that were tried to kill him, that there hasn't been any strikes against the government for through us and fees. and the some months ago, russia has shown the do. the full did show ceilings zelinski cities. it's to share some which was taken from russian drones. so at least once there was an occasion then zelinski was watched by the russians. serial time within the range of their artillery could be easily eliminate that they've done and nothing. so that's uh,

that's it was the lens of landscapes incompetence isn't good for us. but at some point, he will become a problem for everyone, because he is the person most interested in and less continuation of war, no matter what and the you and if um at some point, uh russians will go much deeper into ukraine. she will prefer to fight until the end even run until she needs to evacuate, donate the territory, and form a government in exile or rather then talk to the russians. some uh, do you think nato would actually want to see him on his territory? because i mean, what's the point of them posting and they like that at some point probably he or she comes probably that at some point they will have no other option. uh and will have to accept him. uh, however, i believe everyone understands there. i do believe that she is becoming problematic

and uh, you know, the thing in the history of, of cold war uh, vigorous thing sometimes happens to such political lawyers because let's deal with the americans practice targeted. the association is not only against funding leaders, but also, you know, some have speculated against the own. so against the yes pro on the lead yourself. some for on a can thought that the resumes which became a to probably magic that happened during the cold war. who knows what happens now of, for russia, i believe with the best ease of a situation is that he just has to change his mind, then starts to negotiate. that's why russia lloyd's any personal attacks against human physically and basically indicates that the rest of these are ready to talk to him. and she has to take all of the measures to prevent these folks from happening. and some of these measures are just no t's

degrees bindings and from negotiating from russia. but those of terrorist attacks against the russian simulating targets and population which as he hopes will make negotiation single symbol. okay, well um, just a question that we have to move in there. thank you very much for your time and thank you for watching hope to hear again and was a part of the the, the

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