or since she's the corner midst of the most goose deeds, funds p at the top of so many thanks for joining us on the program today. so the us, the lock is volatility index has risen above 50 for the 1st time since april 2020. how do you see this further affecting the eyes and start walk is i believe that this is not the full stop markets for the you know, that that's the case. actually, i'm the one with a balance in the market. if the stock scans to go or not for about a few months, but it looks to me that now the decision has to be made up and it's on the don't. it's all the question for how long and how deep will be the school. and the russian and stock market is full and buy 1.76 percent of the stock trading today. how would you assess this to decline if its significance off? it's just of, uh, actually a 2 miles decline story. don't forget that in the end of may, russian stock market was hoping thanks,

mike stopping this most of the 5500. so now it's nearly 20 percent. so compared to 2 or more of a 1.5 is not a lot, but i don't, i don't think it's his fault. and yet, so the more a lot of local factors, the rich story stone likes to do it to be less to your biggest months. now and factors begin to play more important, charles, and although russian market is part of the defendant of these polls the defense strong and i would expect all the, all the movements and the we job that's like another $5600.00 is very, very me and the cooks of old, this is very sorry for a possible us recession. what are your predictions full of bad to a? do you think is possible, the going to see us recession and, and what effects would we see if it indeed does take place to say that so if we

speak about the section in this, i was pretty much so far as the hasn't happened yet. so i'm not going to do is i'll click on you to a higher than i estimated to like last year. so i don't doubt that the recession is to come, but it's not only about us too much yourself wanting to keep on. maybe still the biggest thing on the mall. it's also broke down to china 1000. you can pretty much keep this tom on the bus out from, from the session, the session. and by the way, and by the way to be more sessions, multi media often develop one. so the story on the you on us, the us research what we see actually longer global market is like the smudge. yeah, there's no, uh that's why the chinese really be it has increased flight to give us store the start quantity of us is not come see that, that safe as we've had before. and that's the deep up. it's not limited to us

recession on us, the, on the, on the congress and then the companies involved in moultrie. i see these are stops off of the process of mike. this is, this is just this thoughts. well, many thanks for speaking to us today is great to get your expertise on the situation. you have give me the doors in chief economist at the most co seats on campus so many thanks. thank you and thanks for your company on the international. see was always appreciated. coming up next. we've got the latest episode of cross told up about with most today's needing new stories at the top of the hour. hope to see you then, the the

hello and welcome to cross stuck on peter a little here we discuss them. we'll news as a prisoner exchange for 10 settlement other outstanding issues such as ukraine. and why is the united states sending up low, tell a to protect israel after israel carries out of assassinations. to discuss these issues and more, i'm joined by my guess, george samuel, we in budapest, he is a broadcaster at the golf ball, which means out on youtube and logos and assemble, we have peaks or a month. he is a historian and political commentator or a gentleman cross that rules that affect that needs to get in jeopardy. tell me what, and i would appreciate it. i would start out with george and in budapest, i'm a big fan fair about the prison or exchange that you have asked it was, and that'd be the number of people that were freed. and the type of people on the good guys came back and only bad guys went back to russia and this mutual name and all of this. you know, you can dissect it all you want. it's the biggest present exchange since the cold war. but then what struck me most about the prisoner exchange,

as it happened at all. and after all, in looking at the exchange diplomacy is possible. apparently something by the administration hasn't been doing since the 1st day. your thoughts, george? right. you're absolutely right. it's a because what was involved was indeed a very complicated, intricate diplomacy involving a number of different states and very, you know, intricate the logistics and then you are the best question arises. well, if you can do that, if you're good, but for so much energy into uh, bringing home um a few individuals. um, why don't you use some of that energy to the effect a, a, a peaceful outcome. and of course, that's really the issue that every it's, it's assumed that it was, this is of no significance. this is absolutely

a separate issue. anyways, if i was raised in a news conference with jake sullivan that well, does this mean that there's, there's any chance of a negotiations on your credit? no, no, no, no, no, no, this is not that. that's a separate track. you know that that's it. so this, this is a bad is so important, you know, they've, they've, you know, we have bite and then harry is flying to meet these individuals with jake sallow, them getting all these um, uh, 3 things to rip walters. um, but the much more important the, the, the idea of uh, of saving hundreds of thousands of lives that, that's all, that's not only the agent that let's, let's just stay to this rather minor issue. then you have to conclude that no, i don't think anything is likely to come out of this. yeah, because i think that's a choice. okay. because under normal circumstances it's saying, well this is a starting point. the compromises can be found strategies can be devised. they shut

the door on at. absolutely. so it does kind of tell us a little bit more about the intent. i mean, the diplomacy is a one off incentive should be the usual course of a matters between state studies. yes, i think you're right. i think you're both wired, i would, i would add only to is the observations wellness if you'll compare and all of those exchange diplomacy, but with what could be done. but what is not to be done. i think regardings of what in ukraine. some of the exchange diplomacy has 2 very interesting features for us. so for the united states, actually pressure is a very important client or ally if you're going to be polite, name of the drum and the to do. so i'm saying the drum is absolutely didn't want to do so about ukraine. be here again and again the, the account to that because the ukrainians aren't ready to do that yet. but obviously it is possible to pressure a client to those things,

the claims and all the ready to do so that as being on mosque as a pretext, once again. the other thing is of course, if you think in terms of the off sides of values, right? the reasons the drum and cited by the didn't bunk to left classical goals, but typically those bags you were using, right. it has been sentenced as you can, has to stay here and so on and so on. and in the end that as well could be overcome . so hans, again, do you see that there are 2 things to me here again and again about by the comp negotiate about ukraine, that in this case could be easily maybe not easily, but actually effectively. that's right, but i also think that this unfortunate people are not set an example for ukraine. i think the several reasons. one is a big deal. politics. i think the only thing that we're fine to induce negotiations in the case of ukraine is that the defeats by russia and they've become so obvious that everybody wants to get out and say what's left to safe. and apparently they're

not, isn't there yet. but the other reason has to do with lobbying. if you look at this exchange diplomacy, one important point is that to be exchange to get onto that, at least on the rest of the american side, you have to have the lobby. so you have to have people to ok, well you in very important places. now what sort of lobby used to the ukraine insect, the avenue stream of influence? i think they asked for out that's what they call it in northern america and do, and i did states and canada. but unfortunately, yvette too crazy and lovely is loving for more. right. exactly. for the opposite. we are not trying to save the country by loving funding, good stations become out of the old very tired nationalist strain that goes back to where i go to interval period and so on. and the state are totally militant and they don't want to see peace. they don't want to see an invitation save on to see war. so i'm also pessimistic. i think this will not set up like, you know,

when george, one of the things that, you know, it's kind of a convenient observation is that when diplomacy was applied and then thinking of this them both process and had a lot. i mean, drafts were drawn up, been pages, initials, i mean, you know, and they, you know, it's, it's, it, it is a separate that was actually tried and nobody wants to talk about, you know, the 3 of us knew what was going on and this them, bull this is a few weeks after the conflict least, this phase of the complex started. we were talking about it in real time. it took months and months and months for that to see been to um the main stream media because it is so inconvenient now. so we have an intricate process exchange multiple countries that because absolutely right, the germans didn't want to let their captive uh, to go, even though he was a war criminal and should have been turned over to uh, to rush river. cooper is uh,

involvement in the chechen wars and you know, and, but we, we have um, the ability to do with it just the lack of will to do with this. that's, that's the major take away from me of the about this a hostetter change. a good day. yeah, that's exactly what babies are there. there is a complete lack of will. and um, you know, we, we look now as of the situation, but the only thing that matters in the west is the, the us presidential election of the, the ultimately there's, there's going to be no, uh, moving with as a whole until the election is settled. but even then, it's very unlikely really that whoever is okay, buying the oval office on january the 20th. so 2025 is going to make any real serious moves to bring this war to an end. and that largely that the there is enormously powerful lobbies going from the end of the military. the

security of our, of the, of the political leads of washington to move, hold on, please. because any kind of a piece will immediately be deemed of surrendering to bolton. you know, is the selling out the ukraine thrown the 1st 2020 percent. so he's version of munich. exactly. oh, cool. las duke. right. that's the so, you know, you'd, if, if it's harris who's in the oval office. well, harris has to worry about her re election. she doesn't want to go into a re election dog because of the person who a sold out the care of. and the, or trump drop knows he's already been impeach twice. he would be very much in danger of being based the 3rd time if you saw them making serious move. so it's a very like, i know one other option is will buy them in the last 6 months. think say this will

be my like is i'm going to bring this thing to an end. but why should buy the deal that i think bible to say, hey, i'm going to just don't this on my, my success a is going to be as a will come january. the 20 of already be for golfing and everything that we have to be done by a, by the other. so therefore, it, there's no incentive at all in the united states do to bring this thing to an end that's, i don't think there are people that are saying like the name of them. they disagree with them. let's go to the wanted to do this before a trump administration, this was a window to do with the, the 5 minutes. right? so i don't think it makes any sense at all. i think we're looking at the, the number of people they were exchanging is, is quite copious and it's very complicated. is it everything fell into place and they decided everything's in place what it's doing now because things can fall apart. that's how i look at it has nothing to do with the administration in united states. guiding the timing i. i would agree those you'll be the because as,

as being such a complicated process, there was also a major heat up when they had advanced quite far and then the volley died and everything was set back. so i think the people involved on the russian side as well had the experience that but once you have so it's actually on the rep to better do it before things fall apart again. so that make sense to me? i would like to to, to definitely watch a little bit from george on one thing. i'd agree to the same that you know, the deep state to put it to put it simply is interested in continuing the of, or for many, many reasons. but i'm not quite sure that be can be certain that from both not to make peace. the reason is not that trump has fat to boom at peace. i understand you can break this. what that's here. the reason is that i think on the trump side, we have really quite a few people who want to wrap this up, or at least leave it towards the europeans, which is another option. so that they can entirely try to,

to watch china and maybe towards the middle east, in case we don't, it was a big blow up right now, of course, the other thing is, i feel that the georgia supply progress being a peach before. but you could read the see as a way around. you could also read trump as somebody who has learned that impeachment doesn't actually stop here. and trump, in some ways, i think may be even more self confident now than he was in his 1st time. so i'm not entirely disagreeing, but avoided was out the possibility that a trump presidency could perhaps make a difference on the ukrainian issue. okay, did you already that one minute the, the, the, the russians they wanted to leave rush it? and when do you need that insights? are they a nascent lum government? and next i, that's a big question with little time. go ahead. i think they are a nascent down the things i don't. and i think that was part of the objective is to create this whole position grouping that will be deemed, you know,

well it is like a new car. so the consulted in the media that, you know, about developments and russians. so on the side of the we, you know, maybe we can think about them in the future to impose them on a, on the defeat the broken rush of. but i feel like i hear going to is giving master classes and government in exile. i mean, and cookie can think of a better place to have a master class, you know, so and, and, and in florida the weather's nice. you know, you know, h, e, o l sees around. so it's kind of a, a, it could be a textbook example of how you can do it and how it always fails. sorry, gentlemen, we're going to go to a hard break. and after that hard break, we'll continue our discussion then. so real estate with our to the

the welcome back across that guy and peter live down here, we discussed some we owned. it's just as go back to assemble. that if we're in a very precarious time right now, we have them ready to be is really prime minister benjamin netanyahu of go to the united states. the as if he was the 2nd coming in the west congress, probably the most disgraceful hour in the history of the congress. and at least in my opinion, he goes back, then we have a series of very high frightful profile assassinations. of course, some of these really side and it's

a major supporter of the united states. knew that erie uh, reaction we had tell ya, sion is about to encourage. we're still in that moment right now. what are your thoughts about how things are playing a i you know, i, i obviously also don't know, i think, but what, what seems obvious to me is what the, as a radius of trying to do, i, i think that is what it is trying to trigger lots of war, but that trying to trigger it slowly around the trying to lead to the wrong and leadership, no alternative to the response that is so substantial likes that one they had and hate for. right. that in the end it's a to us a right of what and brings him above all the americans. so of course, if immediately applied, then send to use for across carrier strike group and to reinforce the forces in other ways as what i mean. the see, the perversity is a skews of free me off american policy of once again a very clearly it's not new. it's an old play. the get to hear from the brighten

administration that bite and has talked really tough of it from that time. you all know and told him something, but at the same time this administration never, it's so it's, and you'll be a leverage boots and this is the, the peak of this pro version would be incredibly easy because it's very that this incredibly dependent on is united states except of course, that in some very, the whole american establishment is now incredibly dependent on is where it is in my view, the greatest and ends of worst case of subversion of politics, sovereignty democracy as far as that to them even make sense on through the night it states that i can imagine all this talk about the russian modeling with american elections is ridiculous. the humphrey that has matters mastiff leave with the american political process is, of course, is where i'm unfortunately, there seems to be no stopping it at this point. i hope it will stop one day. yes.

very interested in a charge, you know. and then yeah, who's probably the same really the most hated man in israel right now. his, for a, into thousands turned into a disaster. a, it's up to a 100000 people about the back. you wait the northern part of israel because of these us permissions with hezbollah. and he's speaking of a fight with, uh, uh, the uh, the booth e. one speed out of the states to get involved with the iran. so here's the, here's a parent role here with the record is pretty, it's a business except is ability to influence the american media and political class. it's really amazing. he's very good at one thing. he's got himself in israel into it in an enormously dangerous situation. george, that's the, that's, that's a very good summary of it is quite extraordinary that, you know, within days israel can resolve this to high profile assassinations.

and the united states says, well we, we have nothing to do with it. you know, the israel never bother to consult us. however, we don't actually approve and we don't disapprove of what israel that. okay. however, we all sending in our forces because the rom my retaliate, and therefore we are under an obligation to defend israel. well, this doesn't really make any sense. so you said you're saying that well is what i just went off, did this thing. and you can either approve nor disapproval, what israel did, but you're putting american people on the hook to protect israel, whose will discard of them. does these things without even consulting you before it doesn't? and then, you know, it gets you and have a us, well, what kind of leadership is this here in the united states? well, he'll pray you for your bed, take american people to the brink of rule for a,

of a foreign state. and, and this is why it is just a very dangerous situation, because why exactly is the united states? well, the barry floor will with a run over the actions of this rep. i mean, that's the, that's a and then, and then the by the ministration continues with this nonsense. that's what we're very, very close to a peace agreement. well, they went up so they get a, were in the last, you know, but then you all the and then then when would you you solve reading? well, what actually is this piece it? or it's clear, there was no agreement on anything and really enjoy the looks of the, the, the, the cease fire agreement to is a conversation among americans and some of the to your p n o is, but has nothing to do with the israelis and that he wasn't able to find that out in the main screen is that one of the, um, interesting phrases that i keep hearing. we have the of united states and

backing israel has to escalate to de escalate. that is a very dangerous proposition. i mean, because escalation is in the eye of the beholder. okay. let me, you can determine what someone else will, how they will determine, you know, although this is the 2nd goal that we need to de escalate because he's escalating, they, this is like pop psychology, the worst card. yes, i mean, this also an interesting thing that escalate to de escalate is something that americans awesome. describe to russian call this it. they have to maintain that there is a russian policy of escalation to achieve de escalation. and when they do is that they of course criticize it to a very similar arguments that you have just the funds itself. close nonsense because um, to go back to the individual case here. it, since it is regards to the fact that is right here, then has a blank check to inside that relationship. to vote it wrong as much as they liked,

as fiercely as in light. there's never any limit to these words. so the wrong and leadership is left sooner or later, nor tentative, but either to completely lose credibility or to strike back hot again, not like and a half per, but serious. so you know, he pulls up, we'll see it, we all know is it's right. so this whole idea is that you escalate to de escalate that is use sort of ops the enter to do to iran is 1st of all upset, but it is even more upset because good could only possibly make any sense at all if you control which is way, but the united states abstains from ever controlling is a way that is the call of the problem here. is george, who is running this policy ahead of washington because we know it's not the joe biden. we know it's not camella harris. i mean, i think you probably saw her word salad. i'm going back to our previous issue of

the present or exchange. so i called her a word solid care and that's how i describe it. but i mean, this is an opportunity again for nothing. yeah. that referred to, to manipulate it to me because where is the center of power when it comes to us policy in the middle east right now. exactly what we simply don't know. who's running the show, which itself is quite shocking. i mean we're, we're, we're familiar with all the, the media stories where the media, which rejoice that by who got out of the raise because bite is obviously completing and mentally incompetent. but then that same media engines, so no curiosity, it will. okay, so he's complete, the mentally incompetent doesn't know where he is, who then he is running the foreign policy with the it is too dangerous, the confrontations that america is heavily involved in. and, and so, i mean, in the meantime, you have the republicans who are attacking buying for selling is right above the

trail of his rep. but what is dangerous a, it's a read alluded to that is a really, is now in a very, very difficult position. because if it does nothing, um, then that will be interpreted not only as weakness, but as a vindication of, of us is ready policy. and you say we, we, we face down here on with threat to the wrong we, we, we told them you try anything and you're going to be dealing with the united states as iran, by the way, that shows that muscular diplomacy works. if it goes, it does what he did in april, then it gave you, it just becomes a kind of a global laughing stock or, you know, you're just doing this for got to be a see i trickle nonsense. so iran really has no option all the them to there was something serious and that of course, is the dangers of the he and his america as far as the us above us and make us goes on that with lloyd austin,

set americas now on the hook the go to war on behalf of israel. yeah. me, they may be, but again, the up 30 is we would, the websites will defend israel as israel is conducting offensive operations again, you know, nobody likes to discuss that. any clue we're almost out of time. i think what makes this moment uniquely dangerous. it is because you will have the access of resistance. been planning is with george and i have been told numerous times. so like professor mirandi on this program, they've been planning this for a long time for met in yahoo. and here's where radical writing government. this is all an opportunity, both sides now. access of resistance. netanyahu discovery both look good this as solving all the problems. all at once, that's what's very dangerous about that. it's very big suspension now. you know, and i agree regarding these where it is. i see here that you're absolutely right there. but i wasn't quite right with the green your brain, your mom and it's,

it's allies, right. because look, if they thought, for instance as well, i thought that the, the, the biggest chunk out of it is the biggest single chunk. is it for a pop? somebody problem is they saw it that this is an opportunity to clear everything up once and for want to solve this issue. i think the board already have attacked. and so if you look at his boilers behavior, most of all the speech, even off the virtual, clear, most kids, right? if you look at a speech, they're still being kept for the actually, i don't mind kind of understand why, because is what it is trying to impose its timing on them. right. and that is not, it wouldn't take just to them. so i'm, i'm, i'm actually the vs a, it's not we, it actually effects. it makes a lot of sense. the rational actors here, the rational act us here is a ron and its allies, the completely insane active amount is this value. and behind that the rest george slash 30 seconds. those of you are the most insane that they've got here on the say

. it is the united states because the united states is on the hook. we're going to war, not only its own behalf and also do realize any american interest, but on the be, on behalf of israel, a timing decided by israel that really doesn't make any sense that what it's on the yahoo is do a make sense. he wants to bring america and he's been doing that for a long time, being a very fit in on israel's be hop. why america agrees to this, which is a very dangerous situation that, that does remains the big mistake. well maybe that will be the topic of next week's program or a gentleman that's all the time. we have one of the things i guess in budapest and assemble it, of course i want to thank our viewers for watching us here are dc and next time. remember real samples, the

the, the, we decided we will see an incident, government and all the worlds of this country will be carried out through the interim government bond with ashley army analysis that an interim government will step into that power is the country's prime minister. resigned, split, going to military, how they comp that she's landed for salt plaza in india. meanwhile, protest is it broken into the bangladesh. she paused them until they get in downtown, where crowns are celebrating. 5 minutes to shake. a scene is resignation also ahead base the us and the west want to build a world with dictatorship, but present it as a democratic world. around la shavaun said washington on the collective west of it pledges retaliation for the assassination of him. nonsense political lead.