[000:00:00;00] the the, [000:00:00;00] the, the welcome to into part, treat the entire tree, total security or additions for peace, lasting settlement of the premium conflict with require difference given takes from each of the parties. but 1st,

they would probably have to part with the own sense of righteousness does the historical moment or the nature of this conflict allow for this or to discuss that . i'm now joined by geoffrey roberts emeritus professor of history of the university college parks. professor roberts is always a great pleasure, personal pleasure to talk to you. but on top of that, i'm far to in the some academic exchanges between western and russian scores continue as this crisis continues to escalate. where do you think we are in a, in this the battle of what stage? the conflict tests taken? i think um my, my, my car in for you is over and we're in a very dangerous not much. yeah. and the danger roy is, this is the same thing. you said last time we talked the way, it's actually a score districts god bless you have multi just yes because the closer but you cry and comes to the fate of the most desperate potentially reckless the west is, can develop how full of extreme, his voice is uh,

becoming so it is quite possible that that deal. then we may see some extreme actions to some postop, ukraine's defense. and then obviously they will be a danger of escalation arising out those actions. what do you to see as potential extreme actions from the side of the west? because it's clear that the ukraine is becoming more liberal in its open use of terrace tactics. but what about the west? well, i mean, thought, oh, the talk at the moment is the introduction of western troops in some phone. that issue seems to be on the agenda again. there's also i talk about not know slice ons . yeah. old kind of stuff is being be discussed at the beginning of the war and which a west of lead is you have refused to contemplate of that that time. but that back on the agenda and you know, the but they seem to be, i mean more i'm, we take about seriously and i'd be more multiple patch of sex. now i don't,

i don't think the intention of those kind of actions troops on the banks on the ground or some kind of um, app our intervention. it wont, bates, us a lot precipitated waterboard roster. that won't be the, the intention of goals that will be the danger that they know. because obviously russia, i don't think will, will allow those, that those actions. you either if, if, if there were some truths on the ground, wherever you crying that will be attacked. but by russia and the same goes for a western ethel's involvement now uh, something like this was contemplated 2 years ago. but as you say, it says to have more precious power. i'm all home, i mean, does it have more purchase power and long uh, people at large and why would that be the case? because, i mean, it's pretty clear that whatever west and think there is a strategy, a sort of the russian army 2 years ago. the present positions were defeated the to say the least way. it certainly doesn't have in the purchasing public opinion in

the west. the old, if the older public opinion died. so we have, you know, assistant just, you know, pop popular opinions, moving in the direction of a way from one direction of peace in simple some kind of a compromise based on what the nights. so particular western countries to do, do something recklessly introduced you. it's ok to get more involved, right, and it could still be in a know, most kind of like out this, the popular opposition black. that's certainly a restraining factor. so how strong are these voices in favor of directing french law? it's, it's difficult to say, i mean that, that, that's beside the law of them at the moment. i mean, there are, there are counseling their accounts, voices and, but i, you know, i think so, i think it was, we might assist a whole ton of this conflict from the point of view of the west proxy why russia has been a kind of, you know, persistent escalation, one escalation off to the other, so they've done it so often it's almost become the actual so i think i, i, i'll be,

i'll be shocked. i won't be surprised if i types of escalators that do you take this escalation as i calculated tactic. in other words, when people uh raise a bit and to do they actually understand, are they conscious of what they're doing and you know, they possible reply for i, i think is it, it's partly a calculated tactic. but i think it's also an emotional advice. talk to because they've taught themselves into a position, but i basically sums that retro it. i really believe that if they lose, do you cry new for us, your wins and the ukraine is going to be the end of the western world. as we now know, wait, they'd be to someone that won't know, it won't know, it won't happen. and that's important that we know it can be done. actually poly into that, that, that disco, so no, no, do you train, you train? what would be a huge blow tonight? so add for west to west prestige. it would be critical be cried be, or has of prices rise? not but no i, i think the west of all just we know at night. so we're the west and palace of i think what will remind unless the wall goes on it on this and russia kind of tried

saving, multi plan to frank rush. it comes to occupy the whole deep. right. and then the wall, continuation of. yeah. and that kind of extreme situation. yeah, that, that then possibly we are looking at the a much more laptop elliptic outcome. let's discuss something that you and a number of other western schoolers propose to myself. and that is a compromise to this war. in fact, you suggested in one of your recent articles that but i think important because solve this war by negotiating a peace deal that includes ukraine's membership of mater. why do you believe that this proposal, which is the underlying premise for, for this call? so it has any complying power not only in moscow, but 1st and foremost in keys and in washington, and the if the is going to be negotiated into the peace settlement. then you've got this going to be some kind of western security, a guarantee of what's left of the ukraine started off to the war, right?

that's the 1st point. it's got that the 2nd part is that night. so on the west of the politically it retire, there's hardly a what funded? very, very difficult to difficult to back away from accepting you. trying into nathan members even even under conditions dictated by russia. that's the 2nd. and the 3rd thing um yep. strategically having ukraine in they say what have advantages from the west, and by the view, it would mean that you know, your trade in lights, i was left of it west, a new crime presumably what, what, what would cost you some kind of office on with russia ok this beth as own would be the militarize zone domino and they took bice is no new to weapons, all kind of restrictions. but nevertheless you'd have an independence pro western nathan member viewpoint. actually the public folks that are real kinds of good reasons for so yeah, the west united states and data to accept such a deal. now it kept mentioning, this phrase, ukraine or what's left of it. and i think that's the, you know, the,

the crux of the problem and a number of russian analysts indirectly driven there because they claim that was what is now being decided on the battlefield is where the boundary between russian and west and security of parameter will lie whether it's formal or informal, and clearly a mosque was interested in pushing it further into ukraine. but i'm not sure if the wants to push it as far as, let's say, western ukraine of it. it's very hostile and add to russian population. now, based on history based on the current sentiments where addressing done boundary eclipse live organically for, if there is such a term as organic boundary between russia in the west. i think as of now the natural boundary would be um, acceptance by you cried in the west of russia, the corporation of crime it until the default before additional provinces and that,

and why that's the only absolutely for cause and fost rush. why is that this guy rush, those, those territories apart? also part of a problem that's all right in the house, you choose your dad. so that's that, that, that, that, that's, that's, that's the minimum. how far you go beyond that? yeah, it depends on, on auto, on the war. okay. some people argue that that may be your east coast far as hawk gulf. and as far as a desa, the problem with that is yes, that may will, in a way that may, will be a natural cause historical cultural political badly. but it will be enormously costly for russia to actually occupied, talk of down to the end, the end of the desa. okay. but the bottom line is, i, i don't see russia expanding any further into your cry done under the need for now . it also suggested that if the criminal have worth to contemplate such a concession ukraine and it's western beckers would have to give the quote, cost iron commitments to ukraine's permanent demilitarization or beat within the

framework of nathan membership. but 1st of all, i am not sure of the russians believe in any degree of firmness, alpha, quote unquote, the western commitments. but on top of that, you know, demilitarized within the nature of framework, isn't it a bit like, i don't know, it's a writer with wipers, but well behaving. mice, i mean, like, uh, even if and your brain is the militarized and like, it's not your claim that is a problem for russia. it's beta. what, what do i do? there is of kind of precedent, this kind of green because it goes when um, east germany was united with west then became a spell and you have the kind of thought nights that the agreement was the friend at that point to where it was treated rush hour so it's units based restaurants, but it's only the danger and show up at the pain was that there will be no nights or expansion into each to. i mean, it goes to have light from nature. nature, then expand the trees. jo, do a cause expand it is a voltage state, suppose i have to add another country side for all precedents for conditions on

that one on, on the, on the on lights, those of nitrogen expansion. yeah. now i think there's also a more recent precedent. that's the support the your case, the the case of tr k, a number of freshman leaders including flickers himself, said that having trick is a part of nature, is not that bad for russia because it contains that country which is an actual competitor, original competitor for russia, and i can see that the logic being applied to your plan, but i struggle to understand why i would need to want uh, you know, drive aged, highly traumatized uh, very limply angry country or whatever left with as part of it. so no to realize your eyes. the important point the, you know, i think for the russian polite view, it's not ukraine's membership site match at all. i have a matter of it was, it was the nighttime military built up in the use of ukraine as

a tool was absolutely so like if you're trying to watch lift, it becomes part of a night of the under different conditions. then it's not such a, it's not such a frightening development and we asked a question about, you know, why should this issue a process of looking at the trust cost both, why so this is trust issues on both sides. and the only way to, to work through the issue is to after might make, make agreements and see what happens and try to make those agreements. they go through as the rest of the like to say, uh, yeah, you know, trust, but very far what i ask you about the slightly different aspect of it. why would may to want, i mean, i understand native logic of having ukraine as you know, sort of send me affiliated member of its alliance and using it as a sort of battering ram again special. but if they actually have to take responsibility for your cranes, you know, angry intentions for rebuilding it for even providing it with some infrastructure. why would they need and because they're losing all the benefits of their policy. i'm assuming all the cost high. i, i think for political reasons,

i mean that that's what i'm up if they thought, yeah, my eyes. well, why do i could come forward with this suggestion that you, craig could become a member of night to under certain conditions that could be part of to the i was trying to think of a lie to police equally given the what the west, the way out politically, to back off from, for the, for of the war with russia for the abrupt proxy. what that, but that was my kind of kind of reasoning. so i think, you know, yeah, it would pay them no, most kind of challenges and almost from all kinds of discussion, i'm sure that we play the voices that we'd like to assign a we shouldn't, shouldn't do this. but i think for political reasons, nights i would find it very different, very difficult to actually to have his back on your crime completely and forever. i refused to, to allow an instant inter membership, you quote professor over. so i hope you are right on that. but even though i'm, you know, to some extent it's uh, you know, facing the consequences of, of your own polio. you're lying, it's no, i'm not making a prediction error or prophecy. i'm not sure what's gonna happen if i gets, i'm likely. well i,

i know what's gonna happen right now because we are going to take a very short break, but we will be back in just a few moments extension the, the, the, [000:00:00;00] the

extra ones, the parts press, geoffrey roberts emeritus professor of history uh, university college park now, professor roberts, before the break, we talked about the russian rationale and nate as logic. let's talk about the brain right now. and i think that's a very interesting case study because it's hard to find another country the size of your brain. that's what so eagerly assumed the role of a client states without the goal shading any developmental a security guarantee as for itself. and i mean, even israel, for example, and other clients they is very showed about um, you know, ensuring its own base. but the frame sort of threw himself into the western embrace completely without the, you know, asking actually from watch how do you understand the calculus of, can you hear? yeah, i did. it is, this is the most difficult off at 6 most difficult for me. i mean for you to once,

that is why you crime shows because it did add on what still chooses to fight to for, to fight on. it obviously is to do with the power of ukrainian nations. i mean, did you motional power as well as the political 5 you for international? that'd be one thing. i think secondly, there was this cuz fife belief in the west and east and west and simple. i mean, i mean, west and power diapers. why the themselves that they could, they could, they could win this war in some, in some form. ok. now having tried that, actually effectively. last, last of all that just um, they're just playing on and waiting for something. something something, something to happen, something to, to sign up. but look, um, yeah, i could probably get my public opinion or opinion you're trying to shift as well. well, the opinion dice i've said is that there's a gradual shift towards the majority of the ukrainians leaving in the areas currently occupied by you guys who want a compromise space. i think secondly,

you know, you know, the, the ukrainian and the police establish normally 5 i yeah. that they're out there. all kind of elements we've been established, or maybe on the fringes of it, who would be prepared to actually that the negotiate facing see piece of this as a basis is made the best solution for me. right now, i'm not, i'm just like a 9 to perspective. tech support will be in video. decide. let's just have a personal question that have ukrainian votes and your credit is a very interesting collective psyche to me because i think it's has both very large entitlement and a very large material or to complex. you mentioned the, you know, the power of its national is meant to me is a little bit like me there. who is there any to feel it's on her own children because she didn't get some things. and historically, i think this a few or a was channeled very conveniently on to russia. but once you clean becomes part of the west,

aren't you concerned that they so the of the target of its blames will shift. what you describe is actually quite a typical phenomenon of small state nation as of now, and i know the ukraine is not particularly small side based as most i associate getting smaller. okay, so why is this most tight associated with a, a big state and quite often? well, you know what, you, what you described this sense of a combination of in type since we talked about and inferior article, but very, very typical of the nationalism. oh, i'll go all of us most i. so anyway that that's not the same. that's not unusual. but many other states, uh, sort of middle space like turkey is around, even poland. well, pulling to a lesser extent that they've been quite skilful in playing, you know, big powers against one another. and this is what i want to ask you about. because i think leadership or the cultivation of belief is a very interesting subject because it takes time, it takes such

a national hardship to produce the kinds of leaves who understand the deep dynamic, psychological, and developmental dynamics of that population. but also whereas we, enough to position the country within the regional and global context to go printers benefits for, for the people. yeah. but that's, that's what happened for you. cried was thoughtful. so for uh, you know, for the 1st 25 years of independent crime, that's exactly the gaming ukraine. like really? yes, absolutely. until until 2014, when you get this definitive kind of split upon a few crane oaks definitively for the west and dice with the fact professor roberts, i think your grand have some of the best conditions post soviet collapse. they had some of the best economies. they had pretty wide industrial base. they have a, you know, boot land. they have a lot of people. uh, they have the good graces of the west. they also have the good, have the good, the braces of russia, because russia was eager to keep them within the if not within the, within, it's all been done within its economic uh, environments. and yeah,

they seem to waste it all on the some, you know, stuff, something that, that, that the sun, that those, i'd love corruption. i know so that they also kind of hide. and if the divisions, if the political divisions been by what that meant was to make you cry and never transitioned out of the ninety's. the kind of trial take politics of the 9th is continued all the way all the way for the and of course to go see the new crime that i never had a fiction choice. you come and fix some stability is the power all the site. you know, some old and patrol and some, and some directors of very unfortunate effect so, so concisely. right. but going back to the point where i think that once to will, if was i, what's the most out of it? if you have what's left of your train becomes part of the west is up for, it's already about the west, and that's built onto the judge. i see the crime is a, again, that's an on the west of that point. that, that, that going to have a very,

very different view and feeding tools to west when they see what has happened to the country that they have the full, this proxy will on be around the office on be off was and i started to shoot kind of trauma shoes, the that which huge lost a lot. i'm actually, i don't say they're going to play rushman, the russians like that. they're gonna blame the so called western knowledge in order to be a self sufficient country. they have to accept that the, you know, for me ones blame on, on you for me twice, blame on me. i mean the sooner or later they will have to extend our own responsibility for that whole investigate destiny. and, you know, also develop some acu man and shrewdness in dealing with the nature of it. but do you see developing i, i'm, i maybe, maybe not, i'm not sure i'll pull up to be a self sufficient country of any kind of life simply even in the western alliance. yeah. but, but they oh, shoot for it's really dependent cut. they need,

they need that for at least i need to keep a desk or at least access to a desk or the probably know so the symbolic races they need to keep talk of as well . the most go now is the quantity of whatever the best on that i think that we know that they're not there yet. but the prospect of a major military defeat for or ukraine ministry collapse with get a fraction, a russian taking of a desperate hawk. i was, was all part of the rest of some of these new friends that actually might shop to mean to actually coming to their senses and to i'm doing a make them making the data right. i, i did get a, oh, can you just give me up on this more rush? i'm making the necessary concessions to rush. all right. you're very, you're very good. and i think historical argument, because historically russians have, i said, have had the foresight of how you should treat your enemies in order to create, you know, conditions for lasting piece. it was the case both with the french and the,

you know, with a gentleman says, wow, i think that's something that the, i think that's another very important part to walk inside. but the kind of argument behind a time putting that, you know, that russia should make this a very short concession of allowing ukraine of pop you're trying to become, become a members night down to certain conditions is because it still russia want, has a wants to have been having an attitude for you, you prime then ukrainians as, as, as a, as a people. and if that actually truth holds. fletcher wants to reconstruct his relations with your cried new style. i would do you pride him a people on a collaborative friend friendship. i re recreate some com, some a bunch of neighborhoods that what, anything, any progress, anything. got you though like that didn't that that, that then i need to, they need to give something to you crying. i love i symbolically. yes, he is quite a different thing. i remember hear you say they need to give something to credit and like made a membership. and what i'm arguing for is that they have to consciously or

recognize ukrainian dignity. and that's if the ukrainian state is to exist as a space, not just as a some fragment of data, but as a stain that has some potential for self sufficiency bound. if it needs section geographic. oh, by says, i have the impression that the list, the majority of russian public opinion and political repeatedly available, it would be on that page at okay. the minority of the russian nationalist suits the wood wants to go further than that. but i think that's where that, that's where the sentiment is. michael's essential, that's one thing, strategy and politics. it is another und russia puts in the paper, russian, people really. and how can i can say anything, we try to get a compromise, the russians secure, but it's not good that we came to them because it's not just about to ukraine. i mean, for us are either in a rush, i kind of have a ukrainian sensibilities at the top of its had bigger. at the end of the day, we're all talking about the palm of your opinions. if you are just structured as i

you written about, as you said, that is uh the last name seth on windham disconsolate with require crating, a system that would contain rather than incubate conflicts. and i think the russians did that best trying to negotiate some way out of the predicament was made, or they weren't successful. washington said no. is there anything possibly that's good. the 1st way to change is perspective. i don't want to was. yeah, but you crying on the west, the feet in the war, this skit, my effects are trying to and that perspective on the basis of the ukraine could become part of nights, also conditions. but that would need to be an overarching framework of common european security to act as a consignment with that. and as a 1st, i thought a guarantee. definitely, you know, it's a full size. yeah. i mean, you know, the russians actually not russian, but the, somebody's before the, i think actually been fine since the 19th to strategy to create collective therapy

. and the security structures, including the soviet union include, including in russia. but i've always kind of like stumbled against the fundamental fact that in the west roster is the same as a rival in that. and when the apartment a for it, and it's quite track it is tight and it may actually take this will it's tragic war to actually arrive a situation where there can be some kind of sensible negotiation about career creation, comments, comments, security studies. professor robinson. this is going to be my last question for that to happen. what the west will have to part with is the idea that, you know, it controls the events in the world. economics idea, logical, cultural, everything else. and there is an opinion in russia, that's what russians are fighting against here. it is not just the, you know, part of europe and secure destructor that fighting against 500 years of western dominance, which is 1st and foremost based on the western military and dominance. and which

has been both the soviet union in the 20th century. and i think russian more recently has managed to, well, necessarily arrival, but at least undermine if the west degrees to any sort of negotiations with russia. what does that effect, and we mean that it's some here over the world. the shutter is, i mean, like, uh, it will have to you right off i, i does a lot to me. so that's what you've done, what the point you just make. it brings us back to the point that you're at the beginning of the, the discussion way. when you also we add those to the situation to take the moment . i think it's, it's dangerous. this gets even more multi just let me fund a bunch of guessing both actors because in the west or at least a substantial since 6 of the west is not prepared to give up on that self image of it itself. on western, in germany it's not always the self image, it says, we all know, you know if the superiority it's a constructive less got on you crying just being there any exist to ensure that that's all the if the, if you chrysler this is the night to lucian new, right?

then you're going to lose that domination, the dad germany on the west, a place of the world. and that's why the advertising, the most extreme measures to above the outcome so, so that's when it comes down to it. you know, the fundamental obstacle that you have to any, the swell of thousands lined with russia, always booty, the what it might do it lies with, with the west. and what is it actually capable of, of trying to use fundamental well for you. any septic accepting it a different, a different set of relationship with your prime refresher and in europe as a whole movement. and i would add to that, that ultimately what the west as the fighting against is not the russian. it's fighting history and history. it has certain objective trends, said that even the west can know it's and again, but the,

let's leave it for some other time. it's special. great talking to you again. thank you. thanks very much. thank you for watching hope to hear again on was a part of the on the beautiful sun soaked vineyards and nestled among some rest, picking rolling hills as a gentle breeze comes off of the surrounding sea iconic imagery of french one country. but this has not france. we are in a coupon at russia on the black sea,

where recently they've got the serious about making some world class wants the hello and welcome to cross the full board. here we discuss the wheel in the most stable has been ukrainian, and preparations for an attack on the coast. can nuclear power loans on the way for us to oppose the tab is planning to keep the publication the gym and find chief believes ukraine on towed into into the server. the terror aside from the news stream to pipelines, facing an operation of that scale and sophistication, couldn't have happens without they post support through disney or

coast of slides through which streaming platform. that's the only thing about the