[000:00:00;00] the hello and welcome to worlds a part as an old english youth and as a goals, always fair in love and war. and it's not just a chip or phrase at close consideration. falling in love and fighting a war, have a lot in common passion. obstinacy, her feelings irrational waste of resources, and a strong desire to her and to your opponent, perhaps, and adding a war is also in some ways similar to finishing a faded romance. what would it take in the case of the conflict in ukraine? well,

to discuss that i'm now joined by michael ross elector in political science at progress the university and visiting professor in the department of international relations at baxter university in touch. can professor also is great to senior. thank you very much for your time. thank you, frank. you for having beyond and i'm thank you for asking me what we're about to talk about today. well, uh we are about to talk about primarily the conflicts in your plan. and perhaps the implications of has both for regional projects on form global politics. but i want to start with a very concrete development you wrote recently about your cranes attack on russia's course region was an attempt to show the world that your brain can still hurt this neighbor and humiliate. logically putting that in rushes military command. and i want to ask you, why do you think this demonstration of the ability to cause damage is in ukraine's interest? the very quick and dis,

concise answer to that is because ukraine still needs to be seen as relevant. right beyond just simple, repetitive the western talking points. right? ukraine needs to remain in the news. they need to show that they're capable of fighting despite the weeks and months of the setbacks they need to convince. they are western sponsors that sending weapons and munition lending diplomatic supports and realizing that ukraine's membership potential membership in nato is the most for after membership is something that the west should still take seriously and invest in the ability of ukraine to stage this attack within russian territory and still hold on to a large piece of that territory. now for the last few weeks, does

a couple of things. one, it shows that, you know, ukraine is not yet ready to give up. number 2, russia is vulnerable, even though it's a small incursion. of many people who were thinking that a russian counter attack could easily push ukrainian forces back within just a few days were proven wrong. and you know, it was a gamble. it was a gamble, largely to see if 14 would pull some of his forces from other parts of ukraine back into russia to counter at this incursion. and us relieve some of the ukranian forces with in the eastern and the southern done by the regions. well, imagined it was a space dunbar, but um, the question is whether it is ultimately in ukraine's interest because that bill, which is or heard is certainly a valuable geopolitical asset,

but it needs to be more or less precise. i mean, it needs to be a painful for that point and it, it needs to be at a relatively low cost for, for a power that causes that do you think ukraine is capable of delivering just that, you know, hurting roster, but not at the huge cost for itself as well. i mean, that was pretty much proven within the 1st 48 to 72 hours. if the, if the larger goal was to reach course or more specifically to reach the course nuclear power plants that didn't happen. so, you know, it was a gamble, which is now becoming abundantly clear, was a miscalculate a gamble. so what they are now doing is entrenching themselves in the territory around the border town of soldier. and by the videos that we see coming

out, it's not much of an occupation forces. it is a mercenary raid to simply looting supermarkets. um, you know, terrorizing the local population with maybe maybe maybe the hope that this would create some kind of public backlash in russia. that 13 isn't doing enough to defend his own territory. but in the mean in the larger gra grand scheme of things. i mean, if at that absolute best this would have been a paper cut against the larger russian infrastructural and military arsenal. and you know, the telegram stories that are coming out and you know, most of the primary source make sure that we get on the spot or from the, you know, the numerous telegram shuttles take them. you know, however, way that you want is that this was a, you know, a heavily debated decision with, in the key of political and military elite as to whether this was going to do

anything other than just create a, a temporary distraction. well, maybe the temper or we didn't. destruction is good enough for the p. r oriented, ukrainian lives. sure. but you said before the, the ukraine now is trying very hard to sort of to keep its relevancy, a vital it's relevancy in the eyes of while washington dizzy decision makers. uh, what please do you think the key are for us or just want to occupy within the us or bid on how realistic is that? well, we have to remember that there is an election coming up the presidential election, which widely is understood to be him. donald trump wins the united states, is going to largely disengage from the ukrainian seem focus more on what's happening now. we're getting the middle east. trump has made certainly a lot of noise saying that he would try to negotiate

a ceasefire. peace agreement between new cram and russia. this ticket as well is certainly seen with the, you know, certain problems within kias. if come on the harris with a business as usual, i'm just continuing the policies of the bike and ministration. it really is considering what has not only been going on in gaza for almost a year. but now that there is what seems to be a new or a new front opening up in israel against legend on ukraine is risking being relegated to the back pages of international news. the ukraine war seems to be the really bogged down in what is becoming a frozen conflict. there are many, many leads and analysts within europe that are considering brokering some kind of ceasefire even to the point of, you know, both sides just kind of holding onto whatever lines battle lines that they have. ukraine does not want this. russia does not want the united states does not want

this because it just gives both sides time to regroup. and refresh. can you have does not want this because the frozen conflict effectively means the loss of the 4 territories plus crimea. so if anything, it shows that ukraine still has a fighting spirits, that they are willing to go the extra mile to not only defend their own territory, but take the war on to russia side and show the west that they are not as fatigue or as demoralized as many people assume them to be. now it, i'm sure you've heard me closed this uh 6, no center of phrase in the beginning of the program. that's all is fair in love and war. nice to find a strange way of fitting for you cream which threw itself whole heartedly almost recklessly into these indirect geo political class between russian the west and sacrificing a lot not only in terms of flies but also in terms of material resources. but so

far, not being much, and that's not a very typical behavior for a nation state. certainly another very practical one. how do you understand the logical bed? i mean, all of us there and loving more, but when you lose the war and you're the political of late, you've got a plane waiting to take you out of the country with all of your assets, your family and your money is so you know, those who wage war in this matter and lose will certainly have an exit strategy and walk, think twice about the country that they devastate. mean ukraine is really caught between a proxy conflict between the united states and nato on one side and russia and the professor also, it's not just caught it through itself. i eagerly into the political elite in key of ever since 2014 right has been wedded to the belief that their future belongs in europe, in nato,

away from russia at the direct expense of current, ukrainian, or russian diplomatic economic and infrastructure will ties right it is a major decision to be made and it's one that is going to come with significant costs, whether today's and predicted, the war that is happening right now is really something that only they can and only they can say. but knowing that there are a number of a leads within ukraine who somehow believed that the west had their best intent. sions is either that they know something that the rest of us don't know. or they were unbelievably hopeful. even to the point of being that you've professed of it, i'll say i find it helpful to add psychological lenses to do political discussions . and in personal psychology, there is a clear link between romanticized passions, brands, deals, ideas,

magical thinking on the one hand narcissism and co dependency on the other. and i wonder if that wouldn't be extended to national behaviors to particularly the behavior of your brain that's relatively young nations, would be susceptible to the pitfalls of political idealization and developing and sort of instinctively look for do political sugar. daddy's will. whether that is washington or brussels is something that we can maybe, oh it's, i'm in the, in your credit, what are only mine been so i don't think it's need. so, you know, just one partner. if me a rail of many of them. i suppose most of what i mean, you know, the thing with ukraine is, um and you know, this was mentioned almost almost 30 years ago by sam huntington in his book clash of civilizations. it's not a book that i'm a fan of, but i was just re reading it again just leading through some of the chapters a few weeks ago. and he devoted

a significant section to you crate the mind to. he's writing in the 19 ninety's, and he referred to ukraine, is what we call a clift country, right, in which you have really the fault lines between 2 different cultural proclivities . western ukraine looks towards europe. eastern ukraine looks towards russia and the goal of any political government in t as to find a balance between the 2 of them. considering that the european union has now expanded to include nearly all of the countries of the former eastern europe, communist block. and the border of the d. u. n. nato is right there at the western ukrainian border. those that are in western ukraine as i like to stay in my classes, can look out of their window on a clear day and see europe. and it's right there. so weird is the border between europe and the rest. why is it at the polar ukrainian border? does it include ukraine?

we certainly know from your, from b, u officials. it does not include russia as it, as well as the nato. but the baltics, that's ok, georgia, that's fine. we'll go over. that's fine. ukraine, that's fine. so it gives a number of political, economic and intellectual elite in ukraine. some sense that if they really push for this, they can get it. and if they get some kind of assurance from brussels, whether it's a you or nato, or london, or berlin or paris or washington, then it's something worth fighting for. and you know, more to the point is that most of the postal viewed countries, the baltics in particular, or at least 2 of the 3 caucuses countries, ukraine mold over another. even there's a few of the leads here within the central asia, by their goal, in leaving the soviet sphere in leaving the post. so the legacy is to gravitate

towards whatever is new. and so for a country like ukraine with its pro western leadership, that's the future professor lots and lots to appear in. because i think this is a very interesting subject to look closer into. but for the time being, we have to take a very short break and we will be back in just a few moments section. the there's no end in sight over how you're going to continue to destroy the or is the case for the med, most of the people. i tried to go to the gym, but i'm certainly not ready to fight russia. this is also absurd. this is the 3rd world will receive re washing as for so the funder line likes to say, we have the tools while we just start with stability and business deals. what is, let me let me on mind. you have very quick propaganda. you know a price appear in us. i think we don't know the aftermath any time that you're not allowed to ask questions, you should ask all of the questions. the more questions ask the better the answer

is will be the way i understand using. but if i saw lots of levels easier. sure, the other thing is that was to find this filter, which is almost like the joint moment where you look at this moment so we can use a cool dip startups too much money for each of the questions here as well. yeah, the customer support on the bill for the from chicago to the, for us towards each of them. and that's what it was you, me is to suggest them with learning is getting used to story. nothing is when

you've sort of the feeling of getting that by the welcome back to roles of parts with michael and ross still lecture in political science at the bottom pers, university and visiting professor in the department of international relations at webster university in touch county. now, professor ro see before the break, you describe this or you know, line set them on some, a former soviet republics, that sort of russia or, or the soviet legacy is the pass,

the repeating the union or association with the west as the future. but countries and governments have to leave in the present northern the past or in the future, but in the president, it's in the present. then they have to trade with the neighbors to collect taxes, to build roads, to run schools and hospitals. and, you know, they say very basic necessities. so why big town to make politics a little bit more grounded. but it seems that ukraine was so infatuated with these flores and vision of the future that the, you know, the costs of getting there are somehow escaping because it's very hard for me to, on, to believe that them are the ukranian officials would not anticipate some sort of reaction from russian because they believe to be the russia side by side. they have the oldest narrative from child abuse for russia has been to, has been historically. so they are supposed to have genetic malory's of how russia conducted foreign policy. how do you think this gave them? that's a,

that's an unbelievably good question. because knowing that there is within this mindset um, a healthy dosage of what glen decent prefers to as ruth, a phobia. and that isn't just simply racism and xenophobia against the russian people. but this, this setup as an assumptions, presumption, stripe, that russia is this autocratic became, is this your asian behemoths that he's not going to just simply stuff are being pushed to the sidelines. right. there's going to be some kind of response from them . so the only thing that i could say as far as the ukrainian political and we have to be very, we have to be very careful about who we're mean when we're talking about ukrainian political elites. you can't lump them all together. there are plenty of ukrainian political leaders and parties at least up until 2022 that were pro ukrainian,

but were very pragmatic in dealing with russia in not a severing ties and trying to find a balance right between the west and russia. because that was what ukraine strength was a bridge between europe and also literally and the industry and the patent them or the strategy that many in between countries are pursuing. for example, trick and many others. they're actually getting the benefit from this class rather than sacrificing everything to be in the middle of it. yes, but note that some countries like turkey get away with it because turkey is larger and it's still seen is much more strategic to nato as well as if the position within the mediterranean ukraine, on the other hand is but at least since 2014 has been given unfortunately the same degree of take it or leave it scrutiny that smaller countries like georgia, moldova and serbia. we have to remember serbia ever since. 2000 has been

pressured to say you have, you cannot sit on more than one chair. you cannot sit on to chair, sir, but you cannot be europe and russia. and this is now a big problem when it comes to the dispute. the territory of kosovo, which i need to emphasize, is support. there is independence. if you in a lateral independence is supported by the very same powers in the west that insist that only a return to the 1991 borders with ukraine will be an acceptable piece solution. so the double standards that are coming from the west towards serbia, towards ukraine, among others, right, is seen, right? it is visibly same, which is why we're having these conversations on the ukranian leads that have portfolio of their hope and future within this. take it or leave it, the west is best and the rest is nothing. as i said, may be the ones to leave. the country may be the ones as soon as they are about to

leave, you know, and be thrown out of power to find an exit strategy. so once a while, the kind of the country remains and in rubble, essentially. now i know that your one of your interest, academic interest is the connection between culture and politics. and i want to throw in that sort of a personal question because i'm a russian of ukrainian descent. and i think what americans perhaps don't appreciate enough about being ukrainian and cultural ukrainian collective psyche is the degree of vengeance because historically the ukrainians have had the habit of calling out of loss just as quickly as falling into it. do you think these ass cold of ukrainian vengeance will ever reach american shores? does washington have reasons to worry about your queen's ability to damage nowhere? russia, but also it's a form or a sponsor who is not providing enough as well. i don't think that um,

like if we keep it within the, the question of, let's say potential ukrainian radicals. will they do anything when they reach american shores? most likely not. i mean, i'm, i can't make, you know, absolute predictions, but they can very well reach american assets around the worlds. um, but for the time being, the only way for that scenario to happen would be if nato b d, u, and all promises for getting into, you know, border l european garden are shots. mm hm. and they realize that this was all a ruse. ukraine realizes that the only countries in europe that benefit natal wise is sweden and finland. i mean, you've got to think about this. you know, ukraine is the one where the war is happening and sweden and finland has been sitting by neutral and they just joined nato. like that, no, no problem whatsoever. and ukraine is the one doing all the fighting is it has to,

it has to do on, on many of them. in fact, when, when the war 1st began, i remember this back in, i think, march, or april of 2022. lensky was white, angry, quite adamant. during his insistence with nato and other european countries saying, look, give us an up or down, answer are we in, are we not, are we something to you or are you just gonna use us as an add on? because if you're just going to use this as a pull and look dispute or cut the nonsense, tell me right now, so we can cut a deal with fulton and save what can be saved. i asked him before whether washington has to be concerned about your brains ability to deliver damage. and i want to throw in one potential example because um, we started talking in the 1st part about the invasion where incursion into the cost region. and i've seen in some ukrainian need to speculate that one of the objectives of that the raise was to,

on the nuclear power plant with the in course can, can use it as a, as a trump card in potential negotiations with the roster. first of all, let me ask you whether you're seeing that wasn't realistic stride in here, or you have another of these brands deals. fantasy is that the then you're creating leadership a so proud of my gut reaction to that is i have to go with the latter than the former. if they really had any plans on taking course, a nuclear power plant, they would have planned this much better. and there would have been much more resources thrown into this. it could have been something that they said as a way of trying to justify what had happened. and if there was that window of opportunity good past it's, it's gone. now, at the same time it's been voiced as the as a legitimate target. then we have have a number of examples of your cleaning and forces shelving various nuclear facilities of her and the number of experts raising concerns that nuclear targets.

i sort of becoming legitimized because it is being used by a nation state that is fully supported by the west. are you concerned about that sort of aspect of the problem that the facilities that were previously off limits in uh, in nation uh, national warfare is now considered legitimate. i mean, look, you hit a nuclear power plant. i mean, we're all dead. and this is something that, at the end of the day, all but the most diehard war hawkish leaders in the u. k, in the us will say this is a red line. um, you know, we don't want a tr noble. we don't or more to the point. we simply do not want to give russia a green light to retaliate. right? we were hearing up until about a week ago the talk about whether the u. s. and the u. k. was going to listen to restrictions on ukraine to launch. larger missiles would look more longer range, deeper into russian territory,

maybe even hitting moscow st. petersburg among others and portends response. very, very simple response that he gave to people sold and was, if this happens, we know that this was given orders from nato, that this is nato's approval. we no longer see ukraine as the culprit, and all of this, if they are doing this, nato was the one that gave the order. we consider nato to now be responsible and directly engaged in the war. and suddenly the us and the u. k. decide they're gonna take step back on all of this. so even though the red lines are being drawn summer saying, 14 is bluffing. putting is in a way saying, try me, you know, try me. you really want to go that far. i mean, come to your senses. well, i think put those response was very measured, but at the same time there is a very heated discussion here in most go about somehow the kremlin needs to drive the message home to west and power is that there's supplying or if you're praying

with long rain striking capability will have certain limits and consequences if the russia words to strike the young to create that. and i'm sure you wouldn't want that to happen. but let's imagine these hypothetical with russia. we're just try and beyond the ukraine. um, why do you think that would be depending upon where they strike? and they would have to again, this is all hypothetically or, i mean if they strike beyond ukraine, but let's say that they do strike. let's say, you know, a noodle, military installation, a military nato, a naval installation. this is going to cause a major uproar within nato, between those that want us to, for peace. because this they don't have the capability or the stomach to bring the to um, to, to escalate the conflict. and look, there are a number of hawkish noodle countries pole in the baltic states, potentially even finland that are going to say let's you know, let, let,

let's do this. and that my goal is an internal risk. nato is having a very difficult time trying to find consensus. they are having a very difficult time even now trying to get some of their countries to commit towards, you know, arguments, lending. i mean even within the european union, you have countries like slovakia and hungry that are openly kept saying that we will not embargo russian gas. we will not accept ukrainian green because it hurts our own economies. we're already beginning to see the cracks. we're beginning to see the ruptures with getting this supposedly united coalition, so god forbid twitching should be forced to retaliate outside of ukraine. it would be, it wouldn't be a very, very come to heart moment with natal on how to respond. well, uh professor rosie,

i hope your concern about that is cute is in some uh, western capital. so they'll, they'll have to wait and see what's the time being we have to leave it there. thank you very much for being with us. thank you again and thank you for watching hope to see her again on the world's a part the

the, the, what is part of the is it that the employee would post that isn't the defense you of us and that in the word, or is it something deeper, more complex might be present. let's stop without please. is that scope out of the rest of that or group of just the 1st it's a bit them which is which is one because the us that the commissioner to do with it