you randy, is handling the situation that'd be below the level rather than simulation to you'll find ratio of law all the way that it's the relation to the alice time is ramsey juad, you know, and any other uh, talk to 780. i think rose bit blow, it seems back, united nation is not able to show that deep, like the way it is expected to do. and if you have nothing to do with this, then you're not nation lose it. but it's preventing vance and un under no foundation, again, the presidency, not to go up 21st century. daniel. you know, on the light of any more well i, i say it should be the sort of jumping. i do apologize, but you make such a good point and i love, i love how you made the comparison with the league of nations as well. but i think you're absolutely on point mr. due to the un does require serious renovation in a way of saying it because of the world has changed so much in the past 6070 years . the multi polar world is upon us and the global governing body needs to be

updated to reflect this new multi polar world. a sofa come out to her was a foreign policy experts life from new delhi. thank you very much for joining us. thank you for joining us as well. we are live from moscow and we are back in the top of the, the hello and welcome to worlds a part as an old english youth. and as a goes, always fair in love and war. and it's all just a chick your phrase at the close consideration. falling in love and fighting a war, have a lot in common passion, obstinacy, her feelings irrational waste of resources, and a strong desire to refer to your opponent. perhaps then adding your war is also in

some ways similar to finishing a faded romance. what would it take in the case of the conflict in ukraine? well, to discuss that i'm now joined by michael ross elector in political science at rutgers university. i'm visiting professor in the department of international relations at baxter university in to scan. if it's a real city, it's great to senior. thank you very much for your time. i thank you, frankie for having beyond and i'm thank you for asking me what we're about to talk about today. well, we are about to talk about primarily the conflicts in your plan and perhaps the implications of has both for regional politics on form global politics. but i want to start with a very concrete development you wrote recently about tier cranes attack on russia's course region was an attempt to show the world that ukraine can still hurt. this neighbor and humiliate logically puts in that a rush as military command. and i want to ask you,

why do you think this demonstration of the ability to cause damage is in ukraine's interest? the very quick and dis, uh, concise answer to that is because ukraine still needs to be seen as relevant. right beyond just simple, repetitive the western talking points. right? ukraine needs to remain in the news. they need to show that they're capable of fighting despite the weeks and months of the setbacks they need to convince. they are western sponsors that sending weapons, ammunition, lending, diplomatic support and realizing that ukraine's membership potential membership in nato is the most for after membership is something that the west should still take seriously and invest in the ability of ukraine to

stage this attack within russian territory. and still hold on to a large piece of that territory. now for the last few weeks, does a couple of things. one, it shows that, you know, new crane is not yet ready to give up. number 2, russia is vulnerable. even though it's a small incursion, of as many people who were thinking that a russian counter attack could easily push ukrainian forces back within just a few days, were proven wrong. and you know, it was a gamble. it was a gamble, largely to see if 14 would pull some of his forces from other parts of ukraine back into russia to counter act this incursion and us relieves some of the ukrainian forces with in the eastern and the southern done. both regions, well imagined it was uh, a staged down bullet. but um,

the question is whether it is ultimately in ukraine's interest. because the abilities are heard is certainly a valuable geopolitical asset. but it needs to be more or less precise. i mean, it needs to be a painful for that point on the if needs to be of a relatively low cost for, for a power that causes that do you think ukraine is capable of delivering just that, you know, hurting roster, but not at the huge cost for itself as well. i mean, that was pretty much proven within the 1st 48 to 72 hours. if the, if the larger goal was to reach course or more specifically to reach the course nuclear power plants that didn't happen. so, you know, it was a gamble, which is now becoming abundantly clear, was a miscalculate a gamble. so what they are now doing is entrenching themselves in the

territory around the border town of soldier. and by the videos that we see coming out, it's not much of an occupation forces. it is a mercenary raid to simply looting supermarkets. um, you know, terrorizing the local population with maybe maybe maybe the hope that this would create some kind of public backlash in russia that the good thing isn't doing enough to defend his own territory. but in the, i mean in the larger gra grand scheme of things. i mean if i did the absolute best, this would have been a paper cut against the larger russian infrastructural and military arsenal. and get, you know, the telegram stories that are coming out and, you know, most of the primary source material that we get on the spot or from, you know, the numerous telegram channels take them. you know, however,

way that you want is that this was a, you know, a heavily debated decision with, in the key of political and military elite as to whether this was going to do anything other than just a create a, a temporary distraction. well, maybe the temper or we didn't. destruction is good enough for the p. r oriented, ukrainian lives. sure. but you said before the, the ukraine now is trying very hard to sort of to keep its relevancy, a vital it's relevancy in the eyes of while washington dizzy decision makers. uh, what please do you think the key or for just want to occupy within the us or bid on how realistic is that? well, we have to remember that there is an election coming up the presidential election, which widely is understood to be in donald trump, wins the united states, is going to largely disengage from the ukrainian seem focus more on what's

happening now. we're getting the middle east, trump has made certainly a lot of noise saying that he would try to negotiate a ceasefire. peace agreement between ukraine and russia. this take it as you will certainly seen with the, you know, certain problems. we think he of if comma la harris wins a business as usual. i'm just continuing the policies of the bike and ministration . it really is considering what has not only been going on in gaza for almost a year. but now that there is what seems to be a new or a new front opening up in israel against legend on ukraine is risking being relegated to the back pages of international news. the ukraine war seems to be really bogged down in what is becoming a frozen conflict. there are many, many leaps and analysts with in europe that are considering brokering some kind of ceasefire even to the point of, you know,

both sides just kind of holding onto whatever line battle lines that they have. ukraine does not want this. russia does not want the united states does not want this because it just gets both sides time to regroup and refresh. can you have does not want this because the frozen conflict effectively means the loss of the for territories plus crimea. so if anything, it shows that ukraine still has a fighting spirits, that they are willing to go the extra mile to not only defend their own territory, but take the war onto russia side and show the west that they are not as fatigue or as demoralized as many people assume them to be and i'm sure you've heard me closed this 6 know center a phrase in the beginning of the program. that's all is fair in love and war. and nice find a strange way of fitting for you cream which threw itself whole heartedly almost

recklessly into these indirect geo political clash between russian the west and sacrificing a lot not only in terms of flies, but also in terms of material resources. but so far, not being much, and that's not a very typical behavior for a nation state. certainly another very practical one. how do you understand the logical bed? i mean, all of us there and loving more, but when you lose the war and you're the political late, you've got a plane waiting to take you out of the country with all of your assets, your family and your money is so you know, those who wage war in this matter and lose will certainly have an exit strategy and walk, think twice about the country that they devastate. mean ukraine is really caught between a proxy conflict between the united states and nato on one side. and russia, a number of brand new professors to it's not just caught it through in south side, eagerly into the political lead in kids ever since 2014 right has

been wedded to the belief that their future belongs in europe, in nato, away from russia at the direct expense of current, ukrainian, or russian diplomatic economic and infrastructure will ties, right? it is a major decision to be made. and it's one that is going to come with significant costs, whether they say and predicted. the war that is happening right now is really something that only they can they, not only they can say, but knowing that there are a number of a leads within ukraine who somehow believed that the west had their best intent since it is either that they know something that the rest of us don't know, or they were unbelievably hopeful, even to the point of being that you prefer. so what i'll say, i find it helpful to add psychological lenses to do political discussions. and in

personal psychology, there is a clear link between romanticized passion, sobriety was ideas magical thinking on the one hand narcissism and co dependency on the other. and i wonder if that wouldn't be extended to national behaviors to particular and the behavior of ukraine that's relatively young nations would be susceptible to the pitfalls of political idealization and developing. i'm sort of instinctively look for do political sugar daddies? well, whether that is washington or brussels is something that we can well maybe, oh it's, i'm in the, in your credit, we're only mine but so i don't think it's need. so, you know, just one partner. if me a rail of many of them. i suppose most of what i mean, you know, the thing with ukraine is, and you know, this was mentioned almost almost 30 years ago by sam huntington in his book clash of civilizations. it's not a book that i'm a fan of,

but i was just re reading it again, just reading through some of the chapters a few weeks ago. and he devoted a significant section to you create the mind you. he's writing in the 19 ninety's, and he referred to ukraine, is what we call a clift country, right, in which you have really the fault lines between 2 different cultural proclivities . western ukraine looks towards europe. eastern ukraine looks towards russia and the goal of any political government in key is to find the balance between the 2 of them. considering that the european union has now expanded to include nearly all of the countries of the former eastern europe, communist block. and the border of the d. u. n. nato is right there at the western ukrainian border. those that are in western ukraine, as i like to say in my classes, can look out of their window on a clear day and see europe. it's right there. so weird is the border between

europe and the rest. why is it that the poll is ukranian border? does it include ukraine? we certainly know from your, from b, u officials. it does not include russia as an edit, as well as the nato. but the baltics, that's ok, georgia, that's fine, bold over. that's fine. you cream, that's fine. so it gives a number of political, economic and intellectual elite in ukraine. some sense that if they really push for this, they can get it. and if they get some kind of assurance from brussels, whether it's the or nato, or london, or berlin or paris or washington, then it's something worth fighting for. and more to the point is that most of the posts over your countries, the baltics in particular, it least 2 of the 3 caucuses countries, ukraine, moldova, another, even there's a few of the leads here within central asia by their goal. in leaving the soviet

fear in leaving the postal, the legacy is to gravitate towards whatever is new. and so for a country like ukraine with its pro western leadership, that's the future professor lots and lots to appear in. because i think this is a very interesting subject to look closer into, but for the time being we have to take a very short break and we will be back in just a few moments section. the what is part of the blog post that isn't the defense you of us and that in the word part is it something deeper, more complex must be present. let's stop without collision. is that spelled out of

the as the welcome back to was a part with michael and ross still lecture in political science at the bottom gross university and visiting professor in the department of international relations at webster university in touch county. now, professor ro see before the break, you describe this uh me, you know, why is the main song, a former soviet republics, that sort of russia or, or the soviet legacy is the pass the or pm a union or association with the west as the future. but countries and governments have to leave in the present and all the past or in the future,

but in the present them, it's in the present that they have to trade with the neighbors, to collect taxes, to build roads, to run schools and hospitals. and, you know, they say very basic necessities. so why big town to make politics a little bit more grounded. but it seems that ukraine was sewing saturated with these flores and vision of the future that the, or, you know, the costs of getting there are somehow escaping because it's very hard for me to, on, to believe that them are the ukrainian officials would not anticipate some sort of reaction from russian because they released russia side by side. they have the oldest narrative from child abuse. it for russia has been to, has been historically, so they are supposed to have genetic malory's of how russia conducted foreign policy. how do you think this gave them? that's a, that's an unbelievably good question. because knowing that there is with, in this mindset of a healthy dosage of what glen december 1st, who is roost,

a phobia. and that isn't just simply racism and xenophobia against the russian people, but this, this set of assumptions presumptions, right? that russia is this autocratic beam. is this your reason be humorous, that he's not going to just simply stuff are being pushed to the sidelines. right. there's going to be some kind of response from them. so the only thing that i could say as far as the ukrainian political and we have to be very, we have to be very careful about who we're mean when we're talking about ukrainian political elites. you can't lump them all together. there are plenty of ukrainian political leaders and parties at least up until 2022 that were pro ukrainian, but were very pragmatic in dealing with russia in not a severing ties and trying to find

a balance right between the west and russia. because that was what ukraine strength was a bridge between europe and also literally on the interstate. and the patent, the or the striving to that many in between countries are pursuing, for example, trick and many others. they're actually getting the benefit from this class rather than sacrificing everything to be in the middle of it. yes, but note that some countries like turkey k get away with it because turkey is larger and it's still seen is much more strategic to nato as well as its position within the mediterranean. ukraine on the other hand is but at least since 2014 has been given. unfortunately the same degree of take it or leave it scrutiny that smaller countries like georgia, moldova, and serbia. we have to remember serbia ever since. 2000 has been pressured to say you have, you cannot sit on more than one chair. you cannot sit on to chair, sir, but you cannot be europe and russia. and this is now

a big problem when it comes to the disputed territory of kosovo, which i need to emphasize is support their independence. it's unilateral independence is supported by the very same powers in the west that insist that only a return to the 1991 borders with ukraine will be an acceptable piece solution. so the double standards that are coming from the west towards serbia, towards ukraine, among others, right, is seen, right? is visibly seen. which is why we're having these conversations. the ukranian leads that have put all of their hope and future within this. take it or leave with west is best and the rest is nothing. um, as i said, may be the ones to leave. the country may be the ones as soon as they were about to look, you know, and be thrown out of power to find an exit strategy. absolutely. while the kind of the country remains and in russell, essentially. now i know that your one of your interest,

academic interest is the connection between the culture and politics. and i want to throw in that sort of a personal question because i'm a russian of ukranian descent and i think what americans perhaps don't appreciate enough about the ukrainian culture or ukrainian collective psyche is the degree of vengeance. because historically the ukrainians have had the habits of calling out of loss just as quickly as falling into it. do you think this echo of ukrainian vengeance will ever reach american shores? does washington have reasons to worry about your queens and do it to you to damage nowhere? russia, but also it's a formal response, sorry. who is not providing enough? well, i don't think that, um, if we keep it within the, the question of let's say potential ukrainian radicals. will they do anything when

they reach american shores? most likely not. i mean, i'm, i can't make, you know, absolute predictions, but they can very well reach american assets around the worlds. um, but for the time being, the only way for that scenario to happen would be if nato b, d. u at all promises for getting into, you know, morales european guarding our shots. mm hm. and they realize that this was all a ruse. ukraine realizes that the only countries in europe that benefit natal wise is sweden and finland. i mean, you've got to think about this, you know, ukraine is the one where the war is happening and sweden and finland just been sitting by neutral and they just joined nato like that. no, no problem whatsoever. and you, crane is the one doing all the fighting, is it has to, it has to do on, on many of them. in fact, when, when the war 1st began. i remember this back in, i think, march,

or april of 2022. lensky was white. angry, quite adamant. doing his insistence with nato and other european countries saying look, give us an up or down answer. are we in, are we not, are we something to you or are you just gonna use us as i want? because if you're just going to use this as a pull on, look, just a cut. the nonsense. tell me right now, so we can cut a deal with bulletin and save what can be saved. i asked him before whether washington has to be concerned about your brains ability to deliver damage. and i want to throw in one potential example because um, we started talking in the 1st part about the invasion where incursion into the cost region. and i've seen in some ukrainian need to speculate that one of the objectives of death raise was to on down the nuclear power plant. the in course can, can use it as a, as a trump card in potential negotiations with roster. first of all, let me ask you whether you're seeing that wasn't realistic stride in here,

or you have another of these grounds. you will fantasy. is that the, then you're creating leadership a so proud of my gut reaction to that is i have to go with the latter than the former. if they really had any plans on taking courses, nuclear power plant, they would have planned this much better. and there would have been much more resources thrown into this. it could have been something that they said as a way of trying to justify what had happened. and if there was that window of opportunity it passed, it's gone. now, at the same time it's been voiced as the as a legitimate target. then we have have a number of examples of ukrainian forces, shelving various nuclear facilities. i've heard the number of experts raising concerns that nuclear a targets i sort of becoming legitimize because it is being used by a nation state that is fully supported by the west. are you concerned about that sort of aspect of the problem that the facilities that were previously of limit in

uh, in nation national warfare is now considered legitimate. i mean, look, you hit a nuclear power plant. i mean, we're all dead. and this is something that, at the end of the day, all but the most diehard war hawkish leaders in the u. k, in the us will say this is a red line. um, you know, we don't want a tr noble. we don't or more to the point. we simply do not want to give russia a green light to retaliate. right? we were hearing up until about a week ago the talk about whether the u. s. and the u. k. was going to listen to restrictions on ukraine to launch larger missiles with look more longer range, deeper into russian territory. maybe even hitting moscow st. petersburg among others, and put things response. very, very simple response that he gave to people sold and was, if this happens,

we know that this was given orders from nato, that this is nato's approval. we no longer see ukraine as the culprit, and all of this, if they are doing this, nato was the one that gave the order. we consider nato to now be responsible and directly engaged in the war and suddenly the us and the okay decide they're gonna take step back on all of this. so even of red lines are being drawn summer saying 14 is bluffing. putting is in a way, saying, try me, you know, try me. you really want to go that far. i mean, come to your senses. well, i think put on the response was very measured, but at the same time there is a very heated discussion here in most go about somehow the kremlin needs to drive the message home to western powers that they're supplying. or if you're praying with long range striking capability, will have certain limits and consequences if the russia words to strike the young to create that. and i'm sure you wouldn't want that to happen. but let's imagine

these hypothetical with russia. we're just trying beyond your crane. um, what do you think that would be depending upon where they strike and they would have to again, this is all hypothetically or, i mean, if they strike beyond ukraine, but let's say that they do strike, let's say, you know, a nato military installation, a military nato, a naval installation, this is going to cause a major uproar within nato, between those that want us to, for peace. because this they don't have the capability or the stomach to bring the to, to, to escalate the conflict. and look, there are a number of sluggish noodle countries pole in the baltic states, potentially even finland that are going to say let's you know, let, let, let's do this. and that might cause an internal risk. nato is having a very difficult time trying to find consensus. they are having a very difficult time even now trying to get some of their countries to commit

towards you know, armaments lending. i mean even within the european union, you have countries like slovakia and hungry that are openly keeps saying that we will not be embargo russian gas. we will not accept ukrainian grain because it hurts our own economies. we're already beginning to see the cracks. we're beginning to see the ruptures with getting this supposedly united coalition, so god forbid twitch in should be forced to retaliate outside of ukraine. it would be, it wouldn't be a very, very come to heart moment with nato on how to respond. well, uh, professor arossi, i hope you're concerned about that is heated in some uh, western capital. so we'll, we'll have to wait and see. but for the time being we have to leave it there. thank you very much for being with us. thank you again and thank you for watching hope to

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[000:00:00;00] the pride, the hood across the middle east is politicians on different about the world wide condemned because really sucks the nation. the principal, i later on, not even the meal was office really says that both are right there, the prime minister sitting in new york. the primacy of moving the strikes on paper route questions arise of a washington's role in the recent wave of terror. us talk across the web design, yahoo yesterday mentioned, and i couldn't get it's right l 6 piece really in an easier to stop and think of a palestinian to the us struggle assembly coaching the global south to united