from surveys, hunger as diseases, very few made it back home. also some of which of the, the logic drove and nickel 9 mozy. but you and that process and this is rosie. and on monday the the, [000:00:00;00] the hello and welcome to cross software. all things are considered on peter lavelle. the reception to former president zalinski, so called victory plan has been tepid, and that is being generous. the fatal flaw of the plan is too full, but doesn't focus on peace or security. at the end of the day, these forest errors are the fault of washington ending

the cross locking ukraine. i'm joined by my guess, speedo cosmic in washington. he is a professor of history at american university as well as co author with oliver stone, the untold history of the united states. also in washington, we have matthew crossed and he is a professor of national security and director of academic transformation at valley state university. and in bangkok we cross the angel, juliano. he is a political and financial analyst, art gentleman, crosstalk rules and the fact that means you can jump any time you want. and i always appreciated peter. if i go to you 1st and washington, as i said in my introduction, i mean the reception to the so called victory plan was quite tepid, even among it's his strongest supporters that meeting former president zalinski. but how, how would you assess what i said in my introduction? i said the fatal flaws inside does. it doesn't talk about peace. doesn't talk about

security. i think that the plan was dead on arrival. that zalinski was delusional. and thinking he is going to get a better response and that it has other fatal flaws. also, in addition to the ones you highlight. number one, it involves, uh, ukraine, joining nato and later has no appetite for ukraine joining at this point. and secondly, it involves giving ukraine permission to use long range missiles from the united states, britain and others, to strike inside of russia. very deep inside of russia and putting these may very clear that back for us is a red line that he's not going to ignore this time and likely respond with nuclear weapons or is released into applying that. that's possible. and so even biden, as of to says he's been throughout this whole thing,

even bite and has refused to get permission. we know that in the united states blinking and sullivan appear to be supporting so lensky and getting access to those long range missiles. but austin and the pentagon have been resisting, and so these are, those conditions is going to fly with the united states or other western powers at this point. so the plan is not, is not viable in any way. well, massey was this kind of just intentional. i mean, there, there is no prospect for a victory for ukraine in this conflict. so you could kind of flip it around. okay. if victory is illusory, just keep it going. i mean, it's a, it's a conflict for complex sake now. but that's absolutely true, and it's something we've spoken about before in the past. i just want to add to to be just fine points as well. i was fascinated watching the aftermath, the speech where you actually had some members of the ukrainian parliament who were

there live for the speech listening. and they actually made comments of. well, the paraphrase they're saying basically they are almost became like political satirists on the fly because they said, i'm, i'm somewhat surprised at how, how much the ukrainian victory plan isn't really all that ukrainian is. there's not much ukraine in the ukrainian victory plan. and this isn't really a plan as much as a sort of ukrainian leadership regime christmas wish list given the season we're coming into. because our plan is we need to get new tactics and new to turn strategies, a new weapon systems and new economic development plans. and new status is on the global stage, a new membership in international organizations. so is this really a plan that is meant to end the war, or is it meant to prop up an existing regime while the war continues on and definitely. yeah, and so there seems to be an interesting cause and effect relationship here. every time zalinski goes to the united states, he leaves with a, with some cash. i mean i,

i is the victory plan is really planning his next trip. while the current administration is in power because it, it kind of looks like the light lighter stage. i mean, you know, we need task. we need help, you know, okay, here, you know, didn't play stuff in your back pocket here on your way because that's the way it looked like he was treated in the last trip until the united states angel in bangkok where the history again, this is another distraction as an excuse losing of relevance, nobody speaking about your queen any more and he's is desperate for i think we should. now we see the finish and shifting to was to be the least. this is much more serious. and do you have up to much? well, actually for the us use, trying the sold to try it the us as well with the shift but full of china, and it's busy with them either these know what do they're collecting with needs to do is to build up a narrative because they're losing face and i think this is a, we are in an inflection moment,

and i think we look back at history of the inspection moment. was ukraine? uh, showing the id much bigger things are happening right now, cuz that is the break still happening. yeah, this is going to we shape the was no, you claim is a small the do the, the wall is the last. it was not you claim by the weight was may to the last 8 there. we need to be the a narrative to see what somehow what we didn't lose. they might say was a rush of war. but at what cost did we need to fight a lot of people out there now. so i already came up with, i already came up with the slogan, boot, and didn't make it to paris. we want. okay, but that's what it is. essentially, that's what it's going to be, peter, let me go back to you at a much more serious. no, didn't, it's something near it have an expertise and we had zalinski. and the last few new cycles mentioned um, you know, the demands nato or nukes. i mean, is this a sign of desperation?

i mean, this is quite terrifying any time and, and, and unfortunately the occurrence of leads in the west. unfortunately, trivialize nuclear weapons, in my opinion, go ahead peter. a. yeah, it is to lose very again, very, very dangerous. you might have seen that of the group that i nominated diona down here when the nobel peace prize. s the atomic bomb survivors. and i'll be going to as well with them in december. and they are the conscience of the world in their opposition to nuclear weapons and the need for nuclear abolition. and so for the landscape, it'd be threatening now say either let us into nato or we're going to develop nuclear weapons, is just show as part of the a sign of his desperation. but it's also shows his instability at this point. it is in

a desperate position. the latest report that just came out shows that ukraine has lost 10000000 people. so we used the back. when in 1991 they had 51000000 population. before the russian invasion, they had a 40000000. now they're down to $30000000.00 of my sources, say that that's even an exaggerated figure. so, and they're in desperate strain. well, and peter also gives us that maybe we're citing the same reports, but um, um, plural with the of ukrainians in europe have no intention of going back to ukraine . no matter what happens. and you know, and russia has also lost a lot of people during this time move so that russia and, and so the situation on the east or friend is pretty desperate, very tempted, and vision incurs as, as backfired at this point. so it reports every day, the new york times had

a piece on october 20th about ukrainian troops deserted. yep. because they're exhausted. they've been fighting for a long time with there's no respite. there's no real leave know replacements. and so they're in increasing a desperate situation. i hope angelo is right and that the focus turns elsewhere, but desperate countries do desperate things now. but matthew, let me turn to you because we're right rapidly running out of time. and this block here is that, you know, when people are in a desperate situation, they do desperate things. that's what i, i disagree with angel. i think this is still a very, extremely dangerous situation, because nato is facing a strategic gloss. it doesn't like that idea, matthew, and i think that's true, but there's also a maybe another factor in terms of there's a certain way that the united states, i believe, looks at the conflict where it has an advantage for to just sort of status quote, continue on uh, as long as the united states, because 2 things are 2 major priorities for america. in this conflict is one,

there shall be no american boots on the ground in ukraine fighting russians for ukrainians. that's not going to happen. and to what peter just mentioned, we must guarantee in some way, shape or form that no party in this conflict escalates the conflict to using nuclear weapons. so if there are no american troops on the ground in ukraine, and there are no, there's no involvement of nuclear weapons. if there are many ways in which the continuation of the conflict is advantageous to the strategic interest, the united states, and that, that can be a very powerful factor for to keep going. and android it's, it's still not, it's not impossible. this could spread. i mean we, we've seen reports that ukraine wants to pull po, rose in we, we have a lot of the social on rest in moldova. so i mean, it's a very unstable region. go ahead and bank of what absolutely uh its about disability uh, disability ation. ultimately, when you look at the, the original plan, if you look at the,

the rank cooperation of 2019 report was about and the type of was expanding, extending russia when ultimately they, they might not win, but they weren't treating street as much damage as possible to russia, we see the results of the result, these not positive, actually, you see rush, i'll be much stronger in the big changes in the, in terms of a warrant, joe politics or china rush. he's not isolated on the concrete. now we see the clinic, the west, moly more isolated as well. if it's absolutely too, i know it may be as, as we speak right now. the, the break summit is going on and was really interesting. and i, and i think all of us here, but reflect upon this is not a lot of western coverage of what's going on in cars on right now, matthew, you want to feel that real quick one minute before we go to the break. i think that's, that's been almost a 20 year if not longer mistake by the west that so we sort of looked at bricks as a quote unquote, pseudo or

a false or quasi international organization. and not wanting to recognize its growing importance, and it's growing influence, and that's only increased exponentially in the last half doesn't 2000 years. yeah, and, and matthew, one of the big things on the, on the agenda is dealing with the politicization of the dollar. and wanting to come up with an alternative system and the rest of it was a is out of this with system. and it is made life uncomfortable, but a not intolerable. also, matthew, what, what's the importance of b dollarization real quick as i've written on this actually. and that was a long time ago, but it's maintained its importance over the last 115 years in the sense that the american sort of national security ability to project power is severely hindered. if, if we can actually create an alternative system to buy matthew, i'm sorry, i have, i have to jump in here. we're going to go to a hard break settlement. and after that hard break, we'll continue. our discussion on ukraine stay with are

the the, the russian states. never. i've side as i'm wondering, the most sense community. most all sense and the must be the one else calls question about this, even though we will then in the european union, the kremlin, the machine, the state on the rush to day and split the r t smooth neck. even our video agency, roughly all the band on youtube tv services for the question, did you say to stephen twist,

which is the pendulum, those are the only is believes that license a full set goes that all of is ups and downs india before the dish was the richest nation with the highest g, easy in the world, and wide of the 100 years of what it is truly bring it to a dis below of some 50, attracting the sleep study of scientists and give us no deeper party. they have no right to take my property, my idols, my god. we went through all of our big spaces, i was see, could spaces,

off of san angelo winding people pointed out the spaces inside. the wood lute also in the wood, which is now closing to the english, the big city. so quite selling lead. even the, in the words have been looted into the english lexical of the welcome back across black were all things are considered non peter limits remind you were discussing ukraine the if you don't, i mean it's already been mentioned on this program and i think we should explore it . we talking, you were using the words delusional. when it comes to the former ukranian presidents, i lensky. but he's really kind of at the center of all this. there is kind of

a way forward in the us, does it all the time? is regime change, what are the possibilities of that happening? because we do know that any kind of concessions to end this conflict, which russia is made it very clear. but it's a negotiated expanse is, which is unacceptable to a lot of people that are supporting zalinski and these kind of a neo nazi, neo fascist types off and all these. they have a proverbial gun to is. lensky is head, so he's stuck. but regime change is a possibility to move forward and i'm not saying violent. okay, i want to make that clear to everyone, peter as well. he has to be careful with regime change before the intended consequences. yeah, i know. go ahead and try it out. usually doesn't turn out. yeah. the way you want it. in fact, it's actually cala harris's main foreign policy advisor who wrote

a book about regime change and said in the middle east is that it never turns out the way you want it to. and it actually strongly opposed to it. so, so let's, he's in a very difficult position and he's been in a difficult position. he got elected largely on the basis of creating peace, sweet russia. and then it, it, the threat started to come in against him from the right wing in ukraine, death threats and others destination threats. and, you know, he's, it, so he's been in a very difficult position because ukrainian society is quite divided. and now ukraine is also demoralized. the economy is in tatters of the last what a 1500000 or so possible casualties. we don't know the exact number, but a younger generation. you know, we saw a have with france and world war one, when 50 percent of the young people to,

in the age of 18 and 30 of young men were killed. you know, ukraine, what kind of future does it have at this point? so of course it's desperate in the calling for aid from the west, but even the west has gotten very weary of aging ukraine. there's no appetite. so it is possible that regardless of who gets selected, that we're going to see a move toward negotiations, diplomacy and peas after the selection. and that's what we're hoping for. i wish it could happen today. yeah, it'll, hopefully, it's a minute. i mean there's one possibility i'm not putting much hope into it. matthew, is that uh uh, after the election uh is this was biden's war in bite and is going okay, that's one way out. but that, you know, it's, there's a huge griffith to mean there's a so many people in the us arms manufacturers and others making so much money off of this grip there. i don't see them giving it up easily. matthew,

it would be given to be difficult because what i mentioned before is the fact that as long as there isn't direct physical harm or sacrifice on the, on the american side is a huge economic boom. this conflict in terms of the american military industrial complex. because of the services both sides, both sides of the, both the quinn being ukraine, but then having to restock its reserves for american national defense. so when the winds on both angles with the united states congress in terms of appropriations, and that that's a hard not to crack in terms of whoever's in the white house that's going to be a very powerful lobby that they're going to have to be dealing. yeah, and, and so it'd be, even though trump says he can, he needs 24 hours or a weekend or, you know, maybe a long lunch with his advisor. i don't know. i don't put much stock and good. i think it's all political talk. it's all campaign talk here, but you know, the, if you look at there's another angle that's very important. internet is europe, and i think that's something that all of you on this, on this program is spoken to me about is you know,

the europe stance and all of this. cuz that's where the biggest disappointments, you know, europe is certainly very tired of this conflict. but it's a leads, art. go ahead in bangkok when, when you look at the leads in a village, an old being co opted by, by the u. s. and by the globally cities, you need to keep in mind that most mostly those in you, uh uh, going to a banking system to inventing system done by to visit the group. and if you look at your region off the you up on project. oh show, monday i bought that house time. that was the agent still actually the, the, the figures, the father phones is the of the of you rook and you got it. he was never you up and project was not for you, but he was actually a tool to destroy nation state. it to control you love bite for, for from the u. s. showing you got a g, u, c. o. now it is actually becoming more and more up to use. this

d u d i n t t is not working for the interest of you well, but it's, uh, it is actually a, a 52nd stage of the, of the west end and, and it's disposable. they, they, us, he's willing to destroy europe in order to, to mind things, hedge him and you know it, peter, it's very interesting. i think john mearsheimer, i guess it's almost a year ago, he wrote a very interesting piece of obviously predicting that rescue would prevail and this conflict, i think he called it an ugly victory rupture with eggs, even ugly victory. i. i think there's a lot into that i would add to it in, but there would be a miserable piece as well that the 2 sides of the same coin. what do you think? you know what? because when it's over it's not really over. okay. i mean, they, they, with the ukraine will remain as a nation state, it will be truncated, but there still will be elements that the us, it to us is back. there will be there and will want revenge. i mean,

it's when it's over, it's not really over peter. and that's partly why russia, what does not even kidding this take about taking all of yeah. train. right. because the thought of occupying a hospital country. yeah. any troops rush who would need to do that is russian is there got. busy ambition, the rest of the admissions are quite limited at this point. yeah, and i agree with what angela was saying before that the us has different priorities that the us with us been talking about. the agent is it for more than a decade now and keeps getting distracted. that is the reason why we talk the us officials talk about china as being the pacing threat. by then came to offers with 18 top advisors from the center for new american security. these are the china hawks, a rand rhoder reports talk about avoiding a long war was who the title? because they didn't want to get bogged down in ukraine. and now they've gotten not

only bogged down with the ukraine, but also in the middle east. you know, so the problem is we're at the, the, on the doorstep of world war 3, a nuclear war in 3 separate regions right now. but i've been calling for my into is around the world, is that we need an emergency global summit. we need leaders to get together and figure out a way to walk us back off the ledge because we're at a desperate moment in history. we've never been in a situation like this and, and, you know, all the leaders are talking about their own broky, old national interest. we need somebody to speak to the planet right now. and, and it's not happening. and you know, there's so much that could be done in terms of the appeal from the 100 down to the global nuclear abolition in terms of the world population. we see, for example, with the brick summit,

it's taking place now. you asked to angelo about europe. well right now the europe accounts for are the g 7 accounts for 30 percent of the global g d p by the end, the decade is going down to 28 percent. the bricks by the end of the decade, will account for 37 percent and that doesn't even include all the countries that are lining up to join them. so we're at a moment of global realignment, and we could make this something positive. you know, the chinese talked about when, when diplomacy, you mentioned when, when also before, we have to be thinking about that rather than this 0 sum game that we're playing now because it's getting us just deeper and deeper into our crisis with terrific. oh yeah, because peter, i, i, there's so much there that i agree with you, but again, i think it may be a bridge too far. matthew, a, a lot of people, particularly, you know, the washington elite, some foreign policy. they think things are going to swimmingly. okay. because what

the, my point is here, you know, well, if we can't, when we get to make sure the other side doesn't win, well, always create chaos, a run, you know, chaos for the russians. k us for the chinese k. k. k also is a good enough alternative to winning. go ahead, matthew. i think that's true, but it's also people have to remember to the united states as those and really, really adapt that sort of pushing false narratives on to other country. yep. so suddenly that if i have always positive ross is real goal and this conflict was never about occupying ukraine or moving onward to eastern and central europe. it was rather a very definitive and almost pragmatic. please saying we will not allow anyone to isolate us in our own neighborhood. we will not allow adversaries to be right on our doorstep with, with you intention and as long as people understand that we will remain a global power and we will remain strong on the global stage. that's our goal. that's. so that's our only intense, and that's sort of depressing for both the united states and,

or because i think the united states for sure, saw, well, we probably can't make ukraine when this war, but if it endlessly goes on and grinds russia down, that's almost maybe even better yeah, then i as you've got it, that it's, that's the plan b i that you're absolutely right. and so we're almost out of time here. but in my introduction i talked about peace and security. and that is actually attention to what peter was talking about in washington. we need the a global. so i'm going to talk about peace and security for all the ended disability of peace and security for all that's a winter. donald trump, you can get a nobel prize for this. go ahead angela before we, before we finish. well, i think we need to look at the, these new set. see those, i feel the multiple, the word it is about to going back to southern states own interest is the chinese say they say, look for what you night this and set aside the differences. you see how more adults they oh and actually when you look at the how the speech is done by briggs,

it's not about seeking the, you know, sticking call for the dividing use of what you want to, what with us. let's treat together. we have differences. what, let's be the stuff just going pull that aside. and those are adults and, and hopefully we have adults back on the 3 books. but right now we have so many leads that are not working for the n people in the dispute because they want to hold them to power and the to the set that that's why we in, in this position. okay gentlemen we, we started out very depressing, but i think we entered on a note of optimism. i, i think i was a skeptic of about bricks for a very long time. i've changed my mind. i think this is, yeah, this when, when approach is the, the is the only way forward right now for, for the, for the, for all of humanity as all the time we have gentlemen, i want to thank my guess in bangkok and in washington. and of course, i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at our dc next time and remember prospect roles.

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