and going underground can the the hello and welcome to cross talk. were all things are considered on peter lavelle. kennedy trump said he would end that ukraine complex in 24 hours. well, he's now president elect time to keep that promise. the problem is washington in moscow, have radically different ideas about peace and security. the cross section ukraine, i'm joined by my guess, caring field called steve in mount jackson. she is a retired us air force. lieutenant colonel, having served at both n,

s a and the office of the secretary of defense in london. we have in proud he is a senior british diplomat, an author of myspace in moscow. how british diplomacy and russian failed and killed him. we crossed the passcode no tests. he is an associate professor at the auto university right cross lock roll is in effect, that means you can jump any time you want. and i would appreciate before we talk about a, a suppose, suppose a trump piece plan, i'd like to get your reaction from all 3 of you about the recent spouse of appointments that trump is going to bring into his administration. karen, i mean i know that, you know, it, could you some people like coke, some people like pepsi, but it's still colla and then that's my feeling here. karen? yeah, it really is. i mean, he's got a mix of neil kinds that we recognize extremely pro israel appointments and then combine with that. he has some of the, uh, people like tulsa gabbert, who have been, uh, tremendous. uh, critics of what's been going on for the past couple of decades. so we have

a mix. okay, and how about you? because, i mean, one could say this is all by design. is that um, they'll be a lot of in fighting. maybe that's what trump wants. no one will have to gemini, they'll all have to look to him as the mediator. i mean, you've been in a bureaucracies before what you read on this. well, the obvious conclusion of joint is the jumps, the tensions by much tiny tools and what's happening in the middle east, and also what's happening in china. and so i want an apple focus on, on ukraine, and in support for the boy, for the day is going to be on the city to climb much as the site and in some election campaign. and i'm house go, i mean it's a so it's stress during the campaign and even is victory speech with that, he's a man that he wants to create peace and wars with this, with this lot coming in here. they don't seem very peace driven to me. pasco

know, and i agree and tend is owens one of those famous news anchors in the us. she already put out an emergency message to trumps saying like you are being subverted by the, the, the less or no neil collins in, in, in the us. and that's what's happening. so instead of having your colleagues that are focused on the us, ukraine more, you know, neil comes, we're focused on eat on and on china. and apparently these are the people that he will a point that i don't know whether he knows about that or not. but it seems that john mearsheimer as prediction is coming true that the blog always wins out. yes, the on is it, it's, it would seem to be the case here. and you can change the president, but the hedge a monic tendencies are almost impossible to reverse. okay, let's talk about peace plans here. karen is all stairs leaks all over the place that are rumors about what a trump may propose. i don't think he has a clue of what he wants to do. um, but there seems to be

a lot of people. i'm thinking about this fake telephone call between trumping put and there's trying to divert our attention or make us assume about certain pro, uh, dynamics of deal with the, the can be no deal if there is no common understanding about security. and that's the crux of the problem here. karen? yeah, that's true. but the common understanding of the ukraine situation, he does have some people in place that get that. certainly. i mentioned tulsa gavin, but jamie vance also gets it very well. he's following ukraine. so i understand it's trump delegates to some of these people to push ukraine off of his uh, front burner, which is what he intends to do. then we are going to see compromise. we're going to see cox communications, and it's going to be based on what actually happened. so i'm hopeful in that regard . but as you said, with the term, the neil con attitude towards china. in the middle east, we see this persistence. but i will say this,

the d c establishment is enraged. they are enraged and they are frightened and that is got to be a good sign it. but i think in the the, the talk is it's focusing on a ceasefire. now i could understand what, why the ukrainians would want that they are losing. i could understand how washington feels that way, cuz that will give them a breather. but that a ceasefire simply is not in the cards, but it all of the pungent tree on cable tv is talking about a ceasefire. this is done intentionally. it's trying to determine the, the parameters of what some tops could be, which is a non starter for moscow. in well that's likely has to stop and tonight has to be able to see 5 years back. see what it needs to be. is it an actual kind of plan for delivering a piece? now let me freaking spoken about getting back to the last 2020 to assemble agreement. that seems to be

a good place to negotiations stop. but. but as part of that price is that of, of actually having a piece plan and the fucking does actually need to in, because as you say, the crate is losing on the battlefield. so i think actually that the 2 on me, so the exclusive pointing stuff. but also that does need to be a long term plan that needs to be nice bushes, critical, national security interests. you know, the final big thing with the whole kind of nature issue is a big goal. and another key area for discussion is what happens with sanctions as a piece plan unfold. plesco again, when i look at um, um, uh inside or uh, inside baseball form policy. they were actually there all kinds of gravitating to a new minsk agreement, which means one and 2 failed because the western powers failed to fulfill it. russia is not gonna buy immense. 3. no, and russia shouldn't buy a means 3. but at the same time, russia still has an interest to find some sort of way out because the danger right

now is that russia might when the war but lose the peace. i'm not losing the piece, not losing. what comes next has to be top priority. and unless russia is willing to swallow ukraine ho, which would include the entire western part of ukraine, which would be a place in the dispute. that would be a really, really difficult thing to, to, to achieve are impossible. so there needs to be a settlement, a piece of paper that is signed by everybody in order to get to a next stage, which implies that the need to be negotiations, which implies that something's got to get from the side of nato, but also from the side of russia, and that's going to be very tough on russia, i believe because they are there is going to be hard bargaining still involved unless you want to go for old out occupation. yeah, i,

i hear you. i don't think the incomplete occupation of ukraine has ever been in the cards. i mean, that would be this something untenable. anyway, it wouldn't be a garden or any benefits for russian in the short or long term care in one of the is one of the issues here also is a, can russia trust these to the next administration? i mean, under trump, i mean, the company is a russian agent the, the hoax. but i mean, trump was hard to run russia than any other american president to mean. where's the trust? and i want to ask in that because he's a former diplomat. go ahead. karen, yeah there's, well, there's no trust in the idea of mints is course was real end because the guarantor with germany, which admitted, admitted that this whole thing was a hoax to begin with. so there's no trust. i don't think any nato countries could really be trusted to oversee this, and the truck administration is by it's very nature, it's kind of reactive. it's kind of a, it's, it's not completely clear where it's going. it's is not necessarily trustworthy in

terms of the so who is going to help bring these place, these 2 countries together bring, you know, your crane and rush it together. and the other thing is having to deal with, you know, for a long time. zalinski said i will not deal with could not will never deal with boot and, and now zaleski isn't even illegitimate liter anymore. you know, he's effective dictator and no country can effectively negotiate with that guy because he is, he doesn't have legitimacy, legal legitimacy as a, a, as a, as a leader. so we've been problem is that i think one of the things they'll look at is some will zalinski be replaced with someone that can trust some agency and can come to some sort of settlement. same question to you. and i mean the level of trust that is the that's for the 1st step to the 1st hurdle as it were here. so i can tell you that the, that level of pressure from here, looking at the west, it's 0. i mean, you, you got to make me a deal. you've got it, you've got,

you guys have to come up with something that can be credible because your, your, your, your record is deplorable. and that's objectively true. it's, it's not my opinion go ahead in, you know, i agree and i see back in 24 team. so things got very, very by the contacts and friend of mine, even of us in presidential administration. she told me that actually all the trusted gone and it will take a decade to restore trust. and that was in 2014. so the minus sign to take it to kind of really, but still trust on both sides and take it on the bus inside the united, trusting us, and vice versa. that will be right on time coming chinese post bmo. but we still have to deal with each other in the here. and now if i came by briefly on the mistake reading, so i thought a kind of a take a different fee from count haven't being out place and passed on to what was i think he's a little time on midst minutes to agreement for the pot because the americans and the british didn't wanted work and actually that they really kind of conspired to kind of put sanctions in place and make minsk supported to the sections policy

effectively making sanctions against which repugnant in the us government was never invested in misconduct. was invested in showing that minutes, you know, to failed. and that's indeed what happens. i think what you know, that, that voice maternity different now is it, if the us administration gets behind some sort of need piece plan that will be going to a level of investments in it when it comes to actual trust. yes, you want that to relations between washington, us collapse during the previous jump administration, you know, width and supplies to ukraine, undermining the notice came to pipeline. that sort of things that i'm comfortable by on the campaign trail, but that as long as you down to the dynamics on the hill in dc itself, actually trump did have a pool with peyton evens, right. one of these difficult times met and spoke with peyton, and there was a level of a pool and trust with this multi between the 2 of them. which means that they can actually trade and discuss and come to the right now and they'll stay with them

before we go to the right here. i mean, the diplomacy was criminalized under bite. and how do we get away from that? well, you know, i 100 sending me with the i mean by never spoke to prison once you know, it slipped from the point of the, the little salting i see the pregnancy is basically criminalized on the case side as well. that has been for over that k. yeah, but actual people advice and trump the site and use that. you know, we have to engage. we have to to jump to say he has a duplex, it would be well, well say, well today i'm going to go. so that say, alright, i have to jump in here, we're going to go to a hard break. and after that hard break, we'll continue our discussion on ukraine. stay with the show. seemed wrong. just don't need to shape house because the application and engagement equals the trails.

when so many find themselves will support. we choose to look for the common ground, the of the many places in the world where you can stay on the divide between the 2 oceans . and the you might not think kids, one of them is hey, english is northern, are found guest vision and the 2 knows that us national park. and today's, we know the stuff was taking a deep side, interesting page because the sense world war 2, united states has fostered extremist and t russian prejudices and hatreds among the ukrainian d. as for in at least in canada, united states and countries in eastern europe, probably everywhere. and it doesn't

matter what these groups say or do they will support them if it is, the groups are causing hatred and chaos within the target country. so it might done on the cheese, that sounds great deal of the sort of do well i suppose one of the middle i know myself is is up and it was so easy just to keep all the way of reaching the get the ca uses anyone and anything if there's a religion the, [000:00:00;00]

the scott bennett, i'm a former united states army psychological warfare officer, really served in the state department counterterrorism office under investor del daily the . so i wanted to come here to russia in the dawn bass area and to gather the facts, to take back to the american people, the hold on bass of the front line. so this is where the bombs and the bullets are

raging. this is where people are dying. this is where the buildings are exploding the go. i wanted to see 1st hand the scars of war. the welcome. next across stock were all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle. true mind you were discussing. you create the okay, let's go back the passcode killed. so one of the things that worries me in this interim period here in it obviously impacts would be what's going on in ukraine, but also in the greater middle east. the issue of escalation, um, i've asked around, it seems to be

a split decision. i tend to think that the by the administration will escalate before trump could come in to de escalate. if that is if that is his plan here. but as galatian, who can create political facts on the ground that the next administration just has to inherit. and i think we saw how obama tripped up trump when he was coming into office in 2017. i don't know why biden wouldn't want to trump up a trip up trump uh before january. go ahead pass go. i'm a little bit less worried about that one, because by now it seems as if though, the pentagon put a hard stop on the idea of strikes a inside of pre the 2022 russian territory. and that it does depend to go on that actually calls the shots on these decisions. damage to the task of isaac, i was that applied to the british and the french and the others and nato. i,

i and i see that this is an option that could happen, but i honestly think that if the american say don't do it, they won't because they are on the shore. they are on the lease. so an 8 only 2 months from now even the germans will have like these, these elections coming up and mr. merits, who might come in? he even need for his closest date to do anything is like february or march. i think it's to little time to do anything that's stupid, although maybe i'm on the rest of the year with definitely under estimating now. definitely i think so. who knows? maybe we'll have a november surprise or a december just surprise. can i have an idea? and you know, cuz i, i obviously want this conflict and because it's complex never should have started in the 1st place. it were so many ways to avoid it. and i want to ask all 3 of you this. what about another helsinki?

2 point. oh and then pan european security approach. and so, and so instead of just focusing on ukraine, you focus on the entire picture. and by doing that, you can solve that problem. that's in the center of it all. i know what sam dishes . if i told donald trump this, he probably would go for it because he get a nobel prize. but this is the only way for because this is the only way to where everybody gets the terms and conditions of security. everybody lines that up the rest of it can, i'll follow go ahead, parents. yeah, i mean, that's a great idea. that is a wonderful idea. but the problem we have is nato. well, that's really about, that's their problem. okay, my opinion, go ahead. yeah. it's, um, no, it's, it's a good idea. but when you mentioned nobel prizes you have to remember obama also got one. well that's so that's why trump ones one. okay. oh good point. good point . well in let me throw that to you. i mean, your, your experience diplomat. i mean,

is it, that's, it's a bold idea. so a lot of moving pieces here, but the goal was very specific. security for everyone. and i think that's the best way to approach this. go ahead in the yeah, because the problem is, is the, by the opinion and the nice a grouping of deposits and from that kind of why the multilateralism actually and you see what's happening in ukraine but also in the middle east is representative of the type of diplomacy and phone policy, which western powers want to pick sides and the complet between one side and the other side that is completely incompatible with some a wide and most of that sort of page way. security that'd be say as individual. and so, unless you can kind of break that central kind of by lateralism to lateralism, which kind of dominates the when they say one way you kind of phone policy is that you wouldn't be able to kind of get to that point. and in any case, you know, that is being overtaken by what's happening to, for example, the bricks mean,

where they are actually leading that, that debate, you know, gone, you know, security can a bit lodge in the absence of engagement. why listen pounds? well, pass, go again helsinki to point. know what's wrong with that idea. i karen's absolutely who recognizes the nato wouldn't like it, but because of nato, we have this conflict in ukraine and, and so that has to be dealt with here. but if you are approaching the bigger picture may be the way forward in a face saving for everyone involved. absolutely, i mean, you're totally right and he'll say get 2 point. oh is exactly what we need. but the, the side matter of the fact is that the people in charge at the moment that leads in the european capitals and in washington don't want that. i'm not sure about the washington anymore because the change might actually, trump in bands might want to go for that, but i'm not sure to block. does the, the, the thing is that

a neutral you pray would have been to help. thank you to point out the thing is that in december 2021 rush, i asked for help. so you get 2 point oh with it's draft reduce that he'd send over . it ross has asked the time and again to create a call, a common security structure and time and again was rebuffed and it is, it's really, really horrible. but if you look at it into terms of the cold war, we always had ups and downs where people were like more willing to actually do common, mutually beneficial agreements and less times. and right now we're in the time where they are less likely to do that. because right now the europeans are not able to think off a mutually beneficial solution. they think that anything that is good for russia is necessarily bad for us and anything good for us. and that must be bad for us that they are for there is no common ground. it is, that's stupid. but unfortunately, we're in that kind of mindset. unless we get out of that mindset, there's not going to be a wind waiting solution which we need,

which helsinki to put no or would well care. the indivisibility of security was a term that was used quite often during the cold war. that was the very basis of the helsinki process. i can remember, well, after the, after the special military operation started a rush, it was a good, it's a guy talking about the individual ability and security and the us state department acted like it and never heard the term. they probably hadn't the, uh, yeah, uh we haven't had a diplomat in the, in the american government for some time then i guess we won't have one for a while to get going. yeah, no, i mean uh if were, if it's true that the putting rubio in as uh, secretary state, i don't know if that's true or not, but yeah that, that means that it won't go back to trump is trump once something he'll, he'll try to negotiate it if it's not clear what trump really, you know, trump thinks in the same terms that we're talking about today. but another issue you have to look at is the money. you know, ukraine has been a dump for money,

and many people have been profiting from this. your people on this and you know us, but also you're paying comp, companies and other other states that are close by and um, you know, they have uh uh that money to drawing up the words ending. there's not enough ukrainians left to die. we've pretty much this project has destroyed the people of ukraine. so the investment potential is really drying up rapidly. and the money people who really drive both the new kinds and the other, the rest of government, which i'm not sure how much is left after the new kinds. but whatever we have this government's driven by money, it's driven by the big investors. and what they hope to get from something so they are going to, they're going to be a factor here that we're not talking about, which is going to accelerate the decision to stop this thing. there's no financial benefit to continuing it and that that sounds very cold because there's all the dead people,

all the destruction of the environment. but just the terrible yes. the rescue problem, everything. all of this driven by the money people in many ways. well, you know, let me go to in here. i mean, is a war is awful, obviously here, but what has been done to ukraine is a crime because this shouldn't have happened this. there were ways around this. ok, this was a conflict that was wanted by washington, i would say by london as well because of their misperceptions of, of russia's abilities and whatnot. here. but even is they think about any kind of a piece plan. ukraine doesn't really play a big role in it. so that's again, it's really quite pathetic. go ahead in the yeah, the kind is becoming a hold of that come of the status become most of the deep populated. i have a button with huge amounts of debt despite the kind of buildings and so. so you can create it from the west and it's becoming like an empty

a dysfunctional shell in the field state as well as the west and past k on, you know, as normal they increase and the focus on the kind of domestic concerns you know, has in fact, those of us and so you know, the needs of people really to have suffered from this all you training people in the big in the big scheme of things. and if you really care about the cranes future choices, then the best way to do that would be to end the war it tomorrow. trump this point to do well, a pasco, considering the potential, we don't, you know, none of these people have power now, but the names that are being bandied about the will you think that there will be a big struggle within the trump administration and how to move forward or maybe, you know, from says he has an idea, it was a good campaign slogan as policy. now it, you know, it's punch time here. but i mean, with the collective wisdom, if these people have any wisdom at all, is that what he's going to rely upon?

and this very good people are good analysts in this administration. now, i mean, chevy vans has proven time. and again, with his, with his talks and with his book that he actually has some clue of what is going on till c, gabbert and others have done so too. but as in every administration, you're going to have different a variety of opinion. and unfortunately to right now, what we're seeing is that mason trump is at pointing more and more people we know who are new york on. so we know our end to zeros on game kind of thinking. and they are, they are unfortunately now probably going to be a majority and they can, they can count on having people in the back who's think like them as well in the, in the bureaucracy. and unless that changes, unless the, the, the, the, the reasonable people can override those guys, i see that the current way forward is going to have a harder time of going forward. and maybe going to have a, maybe going to see some change when it comes to ukraine. that's the biggest

challenge for change, but not for a year on, if not for china, this one is going to have probably continue that the, the, the, the titanic is going to continue to drive to work that iceberg when it comes to these 2, which is that health care and yeah, do you think that this time next year we'll be talking about a drums piece plan i would like to think that has already propose been implemented and that where is over, you know, it occurs to me to, with the way that trump is putting his appointments forward, the really smart people that he is putting in to the various positions are not niel guns and the really stupid people. and i think i'm being objective here, the stupid people. rubio. okay, not to break the of some of these others. the guy they're putting in for the d o d, i'm not very experienced, very reactive. not exceptionally bright. so these guys are thought are to be fired like, well can i like wake and we can and we can add down this note. i mean,

uh personnel is policy. after all, we'll see how it unfolds here. the good thing is people are talking about ending the war. that's good. okay. i want to think my guess in london killed so and in mount jackson. and of course i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at r t c. and next time we member prospect the i look forward to talking to you all that technology should work for people. a robot must obey the orders given by human beings except we're so shorter is that conflict with the 1st law show alignment of the patient. we should be very careful about visual intelligence. the point obviously, is to create a trust,

rather than to the various jobs. i mean with artificial intelligence, we have so many with the in the a robot must protect this phone. existence was on the take a fresh look around. there's a life kaleidoscopic, isn't just a shifted reality distortion by power to division with no real opinions. fixtures designed to simplify will confuse really once a better wills and is it just as a chosen few fractured images presented to this,