some he is a bloody conflict. watch on odyssey the the hello and welcome to cross talk. we're all things are considered. i'm peter live out. a solid is gone. now what, what about syria? is it gone to? it would seem so outside powers or carving up the country. what was an international proxy war against damascus is turning into an international civil war . is there a place for the syrian people, the cross fucking syria and joined by my guess i'll we risk in be ro key is

a security and political affairs analyst, also in lebanon. we have each of the stuff id, and he is an associate professor in canada. research chair in the history of the modern, middle east at the university of british columbia. and in manchester we crossed to peter ford. he is a former british ambassador to bahrain and syria. are a gentleman, cross talk, rules and effects. that means you can jump any time you want and i would appreciate it every single time i i'm best or forward. if i go to you 1st and in manchester and the title of this program, does syria have a future? and if it does, what is it, go ahead. i'm afraid the future looks very great. very blake. indeed. now of course 3, the media are in the west, hope being emphasizing the the positive and the word which keeps copying is tribute ation cumulation. because there are some people in the straight to, uh,

obviously overjoyed at the removal of the shop. but that's only hoss the picture if you, if they took the cameras to the board that we live in on. and then to hear some of the 1000 streaming out every day in, in fear for their lives. cumulation would not be the would coming to their lives. so basically how for syria appears to be looking forward to the kind of future that they want. and then same as future, and the other half or more, i'm dreading it. well, ali, you know, this is the famous phrase that goes back to con, to lisa rice, you know, creating the new middle east. well, i suppose there is a new middle east now, but is it, is anyone security been enhanced with this dramatic change in syria? ali and they wrote,

and i think that the main beneficiary or whatever to remind the fisheries as we whole know, regarding the events in serious in the immediate future. and they need to, you're having this right of them to, to the age for their own reasons. i think that the is randy is of played on major major pods in how the situation was on the fall that it was before right before the events in syria and when benjamin video spoke about, are you a middle east now, what is the for the time being uh his interest or the is there any interest converge to with the top cushion versus i'm not sure how long that's going to take or i think we were really starting to see some rivalry emerging between the turkish and these radios on those. i think that nobody security has been enhanced. i don't think to make a security more in the way it has been enhanced ex. yes. you're still designated as a 10 or worse group turkey. if you remember before,

it was subject to the terrorist attacks my system while your other groups and there's a rear wheel chance of devices can take advantage of what a 2nd place. this is a very, very good environment for life. just a lot to sort of been for these ladies. i think that the expenditure stays all day . that has to be admitted that it has been so they've expanded into syria, occupied additional territories. so there ambitions, nothing here. who have nothing here. who is our mission has been served. and it's interesting to note that sort of thing is your, how these do not have a history of targeting, as well as even the former head of the most uh, a site that they sent back in 2016. so i see that these rallies have benefits and as your previous guest mention, i don't think this is a cost as an operation by washington. the ministration has spoken about how they contributed to what has taken place for the in the. and i don't think that this service american interest for there to be how you set up these, you know,

how the less concrete hemorrhaging syria was a day to be even a week site to be in cedar rapids. as i said, that serves isis. and particularly for president, i like to find him that would be a disaster because of the present, the electronic, sorry, that will be a disaster for him. because on the he's watch, we saw i it was the, the great that and he took responsibility for the summation of others. i couldn't about that easy recall. yeah. but be careful what you wish for. it's always the case here. she helped me if i can go to you also in lebanon here. what is the future of this region? is it neal ottoman is um, is it zionist, is that american? had gemini, i mean, they all can co mingled together for a long go ahead as well. i think at this point, it's difficult to see how things are going to go, but we do have some indications in relation to what happened in syria that as i've been mentioned, although i, i kind of disagree about the uh, whether this is benefits or doesn't benefit united states,

but we do has 2 big winners on did use political stage, which is dirty and israel and i think we have to look at more than one dimension. so what are the dimensions has to do with the limits? we struggle with the military, the distance and the existence, the ghost israel and the had gemini, and the presence of us forces in the region, including and northeast and see how we have the future of us military bases in the region. so that's one dimension. the 2nd one has to do with the economics. i mention uh no matter what we think about whether these groups, the se thomas groups are in line or not in line with western ideology. if they adopt any liberal economic model, they opened up syria for investments for an investment is they actually reassessed it date by shives own new liberal policies that brought turkey it, economic start this power into the region. then we may be seeing a kind of like a sort of speak uh, goal sized ation of syria,

a re alignment of syria along these lines. so that could be one of the future is that we're looking at. and that's what it is, but very worry. so because of the level of destruction, of the syrian economy, of, of syrian infrastructure as if this is going to be a new only guarantee that's just hasn't it's not mist favor, which is again, there are association of buttons on the guard key. then that's also a cause of concern. and lastly, maybe i'm going back to the 1st point. i do think this is a legal situation for the access of resistance. there's no question about, oh okay, yeah, i want, i don't get to that in the 2nd part of the program. that's one of my questions here on a master ford. what about that? i mean, if there, if there's going to be any kind of a economic rebuilding and you need security, but i don't, i don't see the elements of security in, in the, in the, in the present the, even in going into the future. i, i don't see how this is going to pan out. there are too many competing interest. i

was with the to the key questions here. uh that the sanctions really and the oil. now there is, uh, i mean decent rush uh towards the sanctions relief on the part of most of the western powers and many of the public relations exit of the jihad. the regime of directed towards this because it was basically a sanctions that did fall by shop and it may well do for the new regime if they're not listed. and therefore, the people's hopes dash, the united states seems in 2 minds on the sanctions relief. on the one hand, they that inclined to indulge and consolidate the new tests who are in power and damascus. but on the other, they seem to be hearing is riley voices saying, hey, don't be so quick. uh,

you don't all these people any favors. they're not even useful to you anymore. they've done the job. they've got rid of the russians. they got rid of. you ran, they got rid of bass shot. you don't need to be make nice with these people. so i sense that the united states, as usual, will listen to the is raven is on this, and we'll, uh, drag it seals on sanctions really. on the oil. i think the u. s. is in a bind and they will end up surrendering it to the g. hardy's that, those us troops had one main function to stop. i said, getting his hands on the oil. in theory, the troops were there to find vices. that was a fiction. uh no, it was to stop that said, getting the oil and to use the proceeds from the sale of the oil to fund

the cottage autonomous administration. well the you, it doesn't need the cards anymore. well, it couldn't let the cards go. yeah, i think that's good. what will happen? yeah, i'll, i mean, there does the, the, that's the western powers having any, have any interest in a, a recovering syria. i mean, just leave it as a wasteland. doesn't that serve a purpose for the west or israel even for turkey. as i think that the west policy to what syria is very much to a large degree dictated by israel. i think that's how the west sees the situation in syria. but regarding the issue of sanctions, as an important point, i think we have to remember we're talking about a group of which how through from other car, the, in the extra yes, usually was formerly on the stuff on the star was the going to get the official affiliate of on the card that you're talking about

a car that which was behind the cruise of september 11th. so i don't think it's going to be that easy where they're usually the ones that are not with the ones to sanctions, to remain or not. it's not going to be very easy for any american ministration. i think to at least functions that would put them in a very difficult, difficult situation. you're talking about the worst, have a foreign terrorist attack on the west homeland, that dean of it's still a white thing cuz he's a, he's gonna be called stickle. now i think that um, when it comes to woodson, why till the interest of somebody took me about his rounds interest to wish to bypass the interest that i am already in the happening. i know some of these are the type of up syria now regarding the new liberal help book, which is a colleague in may. we mentioned, i think that um, as you'll learn a lot from other shut off, he's trying to possibly use and see regarding looping. and not serious, adopting a more moderate staff that might be true. but there are a lot of all the hard line elements with the united states will disagree. and i

think that's going to be a major issue. for many of these people could be vulnerable and click the 2nd to like this. for example, the us sanctions, which might expect to continue to remain in place given the hub cart building. that's also going to be another obstacle. so there are various, various issues at clyde i think, which would pose a really, really big challenge and difficulty for the kids. it's very antsy. we're all talking about the interest of us, the countries, but not the really the interest of the syrian people. i think that's the point of the program gentlemen, i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on c. reinstate with our to the

the

the if you think about russia, what does your mind the picture, the landscapes open up before your eyes? the last one does, can you imagine the, the discounts dodge the journey? the, the you ready to come along the

welcome back. across stock were all things are considered on peter lavelle to remind you were discussing syria the okay, let's go back to one of our guessing 11. i'm here show, you mentioned the, the, the, the at the resistance. what is the state of the resistance? okay. we have to remind everyone to come, us may not be destroyed, but gaza, certainly is in a genocide, continues as we're talking about syria, depending on who you want to believe. has blogs on the back foot. not defeated, but certainly been, uh, injured, syria, miraculously it's just collapsed. um, so what, where does the resistance stand or do we should, should we be talking about the resistance anymore? go ahead. a while we certainly shut down the resistance is still present the

resistance in some respect system very strong. and actually if we start with guys, i move around. we can see, as you mentioned, that we are actually witnessing continued resistance and uh, you know, happening every day we have actually casualties on these very side. that being said, of course, the situation in gaza is disastrous and is we've continues to occupy uh, territory that continues to conduct large, large scale destructive rates on gaza and displace and kim palestinians on the lebanese front. the seas fine that we have seen has stopped the fall. i think so that's one set back. if we think about the idea of the unity of the friends at the same time is really as, as failed to actually, you know, take hold of lebanese territory in the south. but there's a lot of them be due at the about the conditions of the ceasefire. there's constant violations happening on the i'm and these are still conducting a long range of operations, but they're not perhaps as frequent as you mentioned,

the celia, as you know, the sued army has been a blue part of it has been obliterated. the non state actors, i've shown extreme resilience, i should say, these are they who do use the from us or has been look at the same time. they are facing a serious challenge because in the case of loving on the supply lines have been caught by the new rulers of damascus. syria was a g o strategic depths offered you strategic depths through the resistance. one is now kind of also somehow giving a lot of different magic signals. it's not conducting any attacks as it used to. so i believe that of course, so long as there is occupation and now with israel's expansion and the, and syria, we are going to see a continued resistance. but the access itself as a viable long term uh coalition is in my opinion, object to at least speak a under enormous strain and its future is uncertain. and that actually costs are

a serious question over the are the question of armed existence, visa, the other forms of struggling, deliberate thought is time investment afford out there. let's continue with it around here that you know, the appetite comes with the eating. and we obviously know that the, the net at yahoo government has been, uh, well for the, for as long as he's been in power, been pressuring the united states, do have to go on and military adventure against the ran. what are the possibilities of that now, particularly the interim before the, the next administration? well, it ran has suffered a major nature blow by the loss of its, its soft underbelly serious. now these railings and bugs thing, but they have a car to and then a car in to, to tell around. and it's true that all those early warning stations are obliterated. it will be much easier now for this way the

aircraft to reach uranium s space, which is the scary. so it will incline the israelis towards the venture arisen and with the prospect to the friend donald trump, coming to town very soon. it's probably whys us to get radians to tone things down a bit and can show that that's the face. and what i think it ran really needs to do is concentrate on the shoring all the ally, the remaining ally 11 on uh, which will need even more support. how is it that support is go to the m logistically is a major major problem. um, but it may be that for the longer time since paula needs to re conceptualize

itself no longer presented itself so much as a member of the resistance and concentrate on its its own position in level and on the position of notes its constituency, mainly the she or community in level, because when, when we look back at the wisdom of joining come us after october 2023. i think we have to do all so quick. this is him and say that it was, it was not wides. so that's easy to say with hindsight, well, you know, it's, go back to ali with the, you know, i, i started out with you around, but i mean, a country that is very, very weak, obviously, is lebanon. i mean i, i could for c,

considering the instability in the region, that there would be an attempt verbage name change in be root. what i'm going to show you can apply that some resume change to buy your uh, you know, 11 on 011, east up and comes in and out there sort of presidency these and literally eventually the good point. good. good point. good point. good point. good point. but um, when it comes, there has been fees raised about to his radius resuming their war on 11 on to the exploration of these 60 day period. which is that period where the steps should be taken to start to implement that enforced. they cease fire. the argument is based on the assumption that the, the full sized strength is. israel hand weakens because of the law. so therefore his world can seize the opportunity and the only non counselor to has the law. personally, i don't think that is unlikely scenario or i think that the americans in particular have invested a lot in this case file. and i think that the incoming trump administration does

the, does not want the situation to deteriorate and leveled on. in fact, i think one of the factors, one of the factors we stripped to the ceasefire, was the ultimatum which from gave you for remember when he visited the restaurant in michigan. and he focused on the necessity of bringing it and it happened to the lower level in addition to the fact that it has been a lot was able to with the so these are increasing the blows and continued to launch me. so i was on these rarely on the front, it was down in the room. i used to be down and out quickly about the about what a method a full mentioned regarding because the last priorities are considered as the law. i could look at the estate principle, the speech is being given by its use agreed general type and i am causing it is focusing on the domestic situation, ensuring all the situation domestically without disregarding the resistance. so has the law is in this process of reassessment, the re evaluating, sorting out to get some priorities in the shape of costs in more than way. he was

the one who used to be assigned with the task of the lebanese domestic situation. so we use a mobile place on how those to, you know, deal with that situation and, and focus on the domestic handle off has the last strategy it is um and we the former leader of, of hezbollah. and that's rolla. he famously said without syria, there is no palestine. can you reflect upon that statement? but let me 1st say that it would be a mistake to think of as well as intervention is unwise in any way, shape or form. but besides the, because we have to remember that the looks of flood operation and what happened after was a turning point in the liberation of palestine because of this idea of a unity of friends. this actually emphasizes the press secretary in nature. it would be very dangerous. it actually has, well, uh, uh,

simply was throw into its quote, unquote, she, uh, enviroment. and kind of became too imbedded in the lebanese domestic font. because that's generally a recipe for uh, you know, uh, increased reaction or the politics and inside level, not a lot of, as well as baltics inside. lebanon is not different from others. what actually stood out as what has been done historically, is it's actually resistance. it's opposition to, is it a lease that the colonialism so it's very important to maintain that why and of course taking into account how to survive in a hostile environment, how to prevent further utilization of any of the titans as well. so i think we have to balance these 2 things are not simply shift to a domestic agenda and of course, reconstruction in south lebanon is itself a form of resistance. that'd be strengthening of people's ability to go back to their homes. is a form of resistance. but it has to be framed in that way as opposed to actually getting more about what's happening within 11 on now your question about syria.

historically, syria, what's the, what the, what the, you know, uh martha, my son, i said is absolutely true. serious of the heart of uh, you know, they struggled for palestine from the very outset. it's actually a center for out of national. i don't, let's you, that was very much about the liberation of protest on, is that a bland? it was involved in all doors with these mean and it has been unfortunately, perhaps the only government that was willing to support under justice. we shouldn't forget, at the same time that the cause the father standing cause is not just the cause of has about, are serious. it's also the cause of georgia and it's the cause of egypt that the cause of the world around. so what i think is important at this juncture is to start pushing for a. 5 you know, a why do a network of supporters of, of, under resistance be on celia is one to actually start to think about why isn't

jordan or the, you know, people in jordan, they need to also, uh activate, uh they have uh you know, grassroots movement. there for that can part these, the more the syrian front is neutralized, the more that we have to think about sustaining other friends and not actually shutting them all down. so the only remaining front is garza, which is, you know, a serious problem in the future. okay, and best that are for we just have a few seconds left here. what's the stop israel from continuing its expansion? go ahead as well. the lesson of the last 2 years is that only one thing can stop israel, and that's the military opposition. that means because it's brushed aside everything else and uh, us pressure virtually nonexistent action in, in, in the un legal action. a media offers. it

shouldn't change to the public opinion across the world. israel is now a lawless state. exact thing, without restraints. and it feels that it can get away with anything, and that's been proven repeatedly over the on that no general. i'm not, no gentleman, we've run out of time. i want to thank my guess in manchester and in lebanon. and i want to thank our viewers for watching us here. our key see you next time and remember prospect. the take a fresh look around his life. kaleidoscopic isn't just a shifted reality. distortion by power to division with no real opinions.

fixtures designed to simplify will confuse who really wants a better wills, and is it just because it shows you few fractured images presented to this, but can you see through their illusion going underground can the reason i was was the last. let me understand um your previous needs the because the bills but so you all come with them. so anyway, know if i have someone available at the finance underscore customer studios, mostly from you know, from the dealership, national level for most of the see if, if i need move nice. see from us the new, the new person. yeah. the whole was an uber good is he talked to peter real good. who excuse that? was nigel. it's

a good question chef of it for you. my shift if that cool stuff, some of that you'll have to issue with the emphasis who is it really is. so let's give a specimen and stuff, but doesn't seem they felt like it's a sun life cool that will suffice it, have a in the us. it was so the show and it should be should, will base color the invalid. the suddenly ish the walk, a town in ivory coast is little known outside the region. but for rivalry and the name conjures up memories of tragic events that plunge the ones prosperous country

until tomorrow. the luncheon broken lives, the country deep in crisis. the cause of it to anyone with an interest in international affairs may associate walk a with the bombing of french barracks buying. i've orient forcible plains, the bible, russian, lesson royce. the emphasis is specifically on the woods, bella, russian, medicine, race. the, the african country has to be in my head and civil war. at that moment it was a turning point for sparks that triggered the tragedy. the .